Suspected Iran Attacks Put Region on Warpath
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UK £2 Issue 210, Year 5 June 16, 2019 EU €2.50 www.thearabweekly.com The Hezbollah Arab youth Iraqi Kurdistan’s plot in London unemployment: new president The long-term view Page 16 Page 20 Page 10 Resolving Sudan’s Suspected Iran attacks crisis could hinge on put region on warpath international guarantees Mohamed Aboelfadl Ethiopian efforts, posted on Twit- ► Given the escalation, the Trump administration could come ter. under pressure from domestic supporters to act against Iran. The international role seems to Cairo have prevented an escalation as the TMC was said to be consider- here has been an increase ing greater security measures and in regional and internation- the opposition coalition expressed al momentum to find a way a determination to continue en- T out of the Sudanese crisis gaging in civil disobedience. The but guarantees by international coalition was looking for guaran- mediators are considered crucial tees from international mediators for any resolution. that the June 3 crackdown would The visit to the region by US As- be fully investigated and those re- sistant Secretary of State for Af- sponsible held accountable while rican Affairs Tibor Nagy and the ensuring the transfer of power to a appointment by Washington of civilian government. Donald Booth as special envoy to The two sides reacted positively Sudan have come to shore up Afri- to the Ethiopian mediation and the can mediations. visit of the US delegation. There Washington confirmed its sup- was a diminished military presence port for Ethiopian Prime Minister on the streets of Khartoum and the Abiy Ahmed’s initiative and its Sudanese Professional Associa- commitment to a political solution. tion, one of the main components Regional and international in- of the Declaration of Freedom and terests could be threatened if an Change group, called off the civil escalation of the crisis between disobedience campaign. the Transitional Military Council The TMC was cooperative with (TMC) and the Declaration of Free- the mediation efforts but rejected dom and Change coalition spills a request to move dialogue with outside Sudan’s borders. the opposition outside Sudan. The Sudanese researcher Haidar Ibra- council also insisted on presiding him Ali said there is foreign interest over the proposed Sovereign Coun- in stability in Sudan because the cil. The protesters insist on having country is in an area of great stra- a majority in the Sovereign Council tegic importance and is “the key to and presiding over it. Dangerous escalation. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the end of a news conference at the State the Horn of Africa.” Department in Washington, June 13. (AP) Ali said the Ethiopian mediation Direct negotiations is “moving in the right direction” between the military and Thomas Seibert ing an unexploded limpet mine command centres but no effort at because “it has been accepted by from one of the tankers, suggesting regime change.” all concerned parties.” the opposition had been Iran sought to remove evidence. Iran would likely respond with at- The African mediation proceed- stalled since May 20 Istanbul News of the attacks sent oil prices tacks by proxy forces, he said. ed on two tracks, one led by Ahmed because of a lack of trust. soaring over concerns that tanker As the attacks on the oil tankers and the other by the African Union. uspected Iranian attacks on traffic in crucial shipping routes raised the spectre of war, they also The two teams, in coordination The TMC tried to defuse the crisis two oil tankers in the Gulf of through the Arabian Gulf and the upended diplomatic initiatives to with Washington and other inter- caused by its June 3 crackdown on Oman provoked a sharp spike Strait of Hormuz could be threat- end the crisis. national parties, are working to the opposition’s sit-in in Khartoum S in tensions, triggering con- ened. Just days after German Foreign create conditions for an agreement by admitting the responsibility of cerns about a possible war between The June 13 incident resembled Minister Heiko Maas left Tehran that would allow the formation of its security forces in the ensuing Iran and the United States. attacks on four oil tankers off the empty-handed following talks with a civilian government and block bloodshed. It arrested hundreds The New York Times reported nearby Emirati port of Fujairah May the Iranian leadership, Japanese counter-revolutionary and Islamist of troops and vowed to try them in June 15 that US Defence Depart- 12. US officials accused Iran of tar- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe received elements loyal to ousted President public. ment officials “weighed tactical re- geting the ships with limpet mines, the news of the tanker attacks while Omar al-Bashir. Hamid al-Tigani, a professor of sponses to the attacks,” including which attach magnetically to the on his own mediation mission in The African mediation is backed public policy at the American Uni- deploying “as many as 6,000” addi- hull of a ship. Tehran. Reports of the incidents by a wide-ranging international versity in Cairo, said the TMC was tional US Navy, US Air Force and US A day before the tanker attacks, came in as Abe sat down with Ira- team, including the United Na- under tremendous political pres- Army personnel to the Arabian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, a close US ally and an nian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali tions, the European Union and sev- sure, forcing it to make conces- “We may be in the run-up leading arch-foe of Iran, accused Tehran of Khamenei in an attempt to ease ten- eral Western countries. The Arab sions. to a military confrontation and this ordering a missile strike by Yemen’s sions between Iran and the United League is expected to soon join the Experts point out that both the will not be a confrontation by acci- Iran-backed Houthis that wounded States. effort. TMC and the opposition have no dent but one by choice,” said Carlo 26 people at the Abha International A day before the tanker attacks, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi choice but to cooperate with the Masala, an international affairs ex- Airport in south-western Saudi Ara- Abe warned that any “accidental Arabia and Egypt said they would Ethiopian and US efforts. pert at Bundeswehr University in bia. conflict” that could be sparked amid back a political solution that re- Direct negotiations between the Munich. “The continuation of the Iranian the heightened US-Iran tensions spects the will of the Sudanese military and the opposition had Attacks early June 13 targeted regime’s aggression and reckless must be avoided. There was little people. been stalled since May 20 because two ships about 40km south of escalation, whether directly or sign that Abe’s plea for restraint was “The current detente in Sudan is of a lack of trust. International the Iranian coast. The Front Altair, through its militias, will result in heeded. reason for optimism and we call for guarantees will determine the out- loaded with the flammable hydro- grave consequences,” Saudi Deputy Khamenei continued to taunt the an agreement that could steer the come of developments in Sudan. carbon mixture naphtha from the Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin United States, saying that, while transition stage through a genu- United Arab Emirates, radioed for Salman posted on Twitter. Tehran doesn’t seek nuclear weap- ine and stable partnership,” Anwar Mohamed Aboelfadl is an Egyptian help as it caught fire. A short time ons, “America could not do any- Gargash, the UAE Minister of State writer. later, the Kokuka Courageous, car- thing” to stop Iran if it did. for Foreign Affairs, who lauded P4-5 rying methanol from Saudi Arabia “We may be in the run-up In a move likely to be seen by the and Qatar, requested aid. The crews leading to a military United States and its allies as an- from both vessels left their ships. confrontation and this will other Iranian threat, Tehran claimed US Secretary of State Mike not be a confrontation by Iran was responsible for maintaining Pompeo accused Iran of being be- accident but one by choice,” the security of the Strait of Hormuz. hind the incidents. He suggested said Carlo Masala, an Masala said that if elements of the that Tehran had opted for violence international affairs expert Iranian state apparatus had been in- to force the United States to end at Bundeswehr University in volved in the tanker attacks, the es- economic sanctions. “Iran is lashing Munich. calation could be described as an act out because the regime wants our of hybrid warfare, in which attacks successful maximum pressure cam- Given the escalation, the Trump are not attributable to a certain paign lifted,” Pompeo said. administration could come under player with accuracy. Masala point- US President Donald Trump pressure from domestic supporters ed to Russian military activities in blamed Tehran for the attacks. “Iran to act against Iran. eastern Ukraine as an example. did do it,” he said on Fox News. Re- Masala said possible retaliatory “That makes it extremely difficult garding Tehran’s threat to close the US strikes would not be comparable for the United States to legitimise Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, if that to the all-out invasion of Saddam military action against Iran and to happened, the important passage- Hussein’s Iraq in 2003. “It would find allies,” Masala said. way would not be closed for long. be ‘everything you can do in one The US military released a video night,’” Masala said by telephone. Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Lending a hand. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (L) meets it said shows Iran’s Islamic Revolu- “There would be strikes against correspondent.