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Page 16 Page 20 Page 10 Resolving Sudan’s Suspected Iran attacks crisis could hinge on put region on warpath international guarantees

Mohamed Aboelfadl Ethiopian efforts, posted on Twit- ► Given the escalation, the Trump administration could come ter. under pressure from domestic supporters to act against Iran. The international role seems to Cairo have prevented an escalation as the TMC was said to be consider- here has been an increase ing greater security measures and in regional and internation- the opposition coalition expressed al momentum to find a way a determination to continue en- T out of the Sudanese crisis gaging in civil disobedience. The but guarantees by international coalition was looking for guaran- mediators are considered crucial tees from international mediators for any resolution. that the June 3 crackdown would The visit to the region by US As- be fully investigated and those re- sistant Secretary of State for Af- sponsible held accountable while rican Affairs Tibor Nagy and the ensuring the transfer of power to a appointment by Washington of civilian government. Donald Booth as special envoy to The two sides reacted positively Sudan have come to shore up Afri- to the Ethiopian mediation and the can mediations. visit of the US delegation. There Washington confirmed its sup- was a diminished military presence port for Ethiopian Prime Minister on the streets of Khartoum and the Abiy Ahmed’s initiative and its Sudanese Professional Associa- commitment to a political solution. tion, one of the main components Regional and international in- of the Declaration of Freedom and terests could be threatened if an Change group, called off the civil escalation of the crisis between disobedience campaign. the Transitional Military Council The TMC was cooperative with (TMC) and the Declaration of Free- the mediation efforts but rejected dom and Change coalition spills a request to move dialogue with outside Sudan’s borders. the opposition outside Sudan. The Sudanese researcher Haidar Ibra- council also insisted on presiding him Ali said there is foreign interest over the proposed Sovereign Coun- in stability in Sudan because the cil. The protesters insist on having country is in an area of ​​great stra- a majority in the Sovereign Council tegic importance and is “the key to and presiding over it. Dangerous escalation. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the end of a news conference at the State the Horn of Africa.” Department in Washington, June 13. (AP) Ali said the Ethiopian mediation Direct negotiations is “moving in the right direction” between the military and Thomas Seibert ing an unexploded limpet mine command centres but no effort at because “it has been accepted by from one of the tankers, suggesting regime change.” all concerned parties.” the opposition had been Iran sought to remove evidence. Iran would likely respond with at- The African mediation proceed- stalled since May 20 Istanbul News of the attacks sent oil prices tacks by proxy forces, he said. ed on two tracks, one led by Ahmed because of a lack of trust. soaring over concerns that tanker As the attacks on the oil tankers and the other by the African Union. uspected Iranian attacks on traffic in crucial shipping routes raised the spectre of war, they also The two teams, in coordination The TMC tried to defuse the crisis two oil tankers in the Gulf of through the Arabian Gulf and the upended diplomatic initiatives to with Washington and other inter- caused by its June 3 crackdown on Oman provoked a sharp spike Strait of Hormuz could be threat- end the crisis. national parties, are working to the opposition’s sit-in in Khartoum S in tensions, triggering con- ened. Just days after German Foreign create conditions for an agreement by admitting the responsibility of cerns about a possible war between The June 13 incident resembled Minister Heiko Maas left Tehran that would allow the formation of its security forces in the ensuing Iran and the United States. attacks on four oil tankers off the empty-handed following talks with a civilian government and block bloodshed. It arrested hundreds The New York Times reported nearby Emirati port of Fujairah May the Iranian leadership, Japanese counter-revolutionary and Islamist of troops and vowed to try them in June 15 that US Defence Depart- 12. US officials accused Iran of tar- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe received elements loyal to ousted President public. ment officials “weighed tactical re- geting the ships with limpet mines, the news of the tanker attacks while Omar al-Bashir. Hamid al-Tigani, a professor of sponses to the attacks,” including which attach magnetically to the on his own mediation mission in The African mediation is backed public policy at the American Uni- deploying “as many as 6,000” addi- hull of a ship. Tehran. Reports of the incidents by a wide-ranging international versity in Cairo, said the TMC was tional US Navy, US Air Force and US A day before the tanker attacks, came in as Abe sat down with Ira- team, including the United Na- under tremendous political pres- Army personnel to the Arabian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, a close US ally and an nian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali tions, the European Union and sev- sure, forcing it to make conces- “We may be in the run-up leading arch-foe of Iran, accused Tehran of Khamenei in an attempt to ease ten- eral Western countries. The Arab sions. to a military confrontation and this ordering a missile strike by Yemen’s sions between Iran and the United League is expected to soon join the Experts point out that both the will not be a confrontation by acci- Iran-backed Houthis that wounded States. effort. TMC and the opposition have no dent but one by choice,” said Carlo 26 people at the Abha International A day before the tanker attacks, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi choice but to cooperate with the Masala, an international affairs ex- Airport in south-western Saudi Ara- Abe warned that any “accidental Arabia and Egypt said they would Ethiopian and US efforts. pert at Bundeswehr University in bia. conflict” that could be sparked amid back a political solution that re- Direct negotiations between the Munich. “The continuation of the Iranian the heightened US-Iran tensions spects the will of the Sudanese military and the opposition had Attacks early June 13 targeted regime’s aggression and reckless must be avoided. There was little people. been stalled since May 20 because two ships about 40km south of escalation, whether directly or sign that Abe’s plea for restraint was “The current detente in Sudan is of a lack of trust. International the Iranian coast. The Front Altair, through its militias, will result in heeded. reason for optimism and we call for guarantees will determine the out- loaded with the flammable hydro- grave consequences,” Saudi Deputy Khamenei continued to taunt the an agreement that could steer the come of developments in Sudan. carbon mixture naphtha from the Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin United States, saying that, while transition stage through a genu- United Arab Emirates, radioed for Salman posted on Twitter. Tehran doesn’t seek nuclear weap- ine and stable partnership,” Anwar Mohamed Aboelfadl is an Egyptian help as it caught fire. A short time ons, “America could not do any- Gargash, the UAE Minister of State writer. later, the Kokuka Courageous, car- thing” to stop Iran if it did. for Foreign Affairs, who lauded P4-5 rying methanol from Saudi Arabia “We may be in the run-up In a move likely to be seen by the and Qatar, requested aid. The crews leading to a military United States and its allies as an- from both vessels left their ships. confrontation and this will other Iranian threat, Tehran claimed US Secretary of State Mike not be a confrontation by Iran was responsible for maintaining Pompeo accused Iran of being be- accident but one by choice,” the security of the Strait of Hormuz. hind the incidents. He suggested said Carlo Masala, an Masala said that if elements of the that Tehran had opted for violence international affairs expert Iranian state apparatus had been in- to force the United States to end at Bundeswehr University in volved in the tanker attacks, the es- economic sanctions. “Iran is lashing Munich. calation could be described as an act out because the regime wants our of hybrid warfare, in which attacks successful maximum pressure cam- Given the escalation, the Trump are not attributable to a certain paign lifted,” Pompeo said. administration could come under player with accuracy. Masala point- US President Donald Trump pressure from domestic supporters ed to Russian military activities in blamed Tehran for the attacks. “Iran to act against Iran. eastern Ukraine as an example. did do it,” he said on Fox News. Re- Masala said possible retaliatory “That makes it extremely difficult garding Tehran’s threat to close the US strikes would not be comparable for the United States to legitimise Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, if that to the all-out invasion of Saddam military action against Iran and to happened, the important passage- Hussein’s Iraq in 2003. “It would find allies,” Masala said. way would not be closed for long. be ‘everything you can do in one The US military released a video night,’” Masala said by telephone. Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Lending a hand. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (L) meets it said shows Iran’s Islamic Revolu- “There would be strikes against correspondent. with the head of Sudan’s ruling Military Council General Abdel tionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remov- Iranian nuclear installations and P2-3,6 Fattah al-Burhan (R), in Khartoum, June 7. (AFP) 2 June 16, 2019 Cover Story Yemen’s Houthis lay bare role in confrontation with Saudi Arabia

Faith Salama began, Saudi Arabia has intercept- ed many ballistic missiles fired by rebels from Yemen. However, the Dubai cruise missile attack appeared to be more sophisticated. ttacks by Iran-backed “The cruise missile threat has al- Houthi rebels on a south- ways been a complex one to coun- ern Saudi airport marked a ter. No system anywhere can pro- A new phase in the devastat- vide ‘foolproof’ defence but the ing war in Yemen, where a Saudi- Patriot is the best-in-class defence led coalition is fighting in support system available,” said Sabahat of the internationally recognised Khan, a Dubai-based expert in se- government of Abd Rabbo Man- curity, defence policy and strategic sour Hadi. issues. The attack June 12 on the Abha “This attack may demonstrate International Airport injured 26 that the Houthi rebels are employ- people, said Saudi spokesman ing more sophisticated missiles and Colonel Turki al-Malki in a state- tactics than before but, more im- ment. Two days later, an attack was portantly, is also a signal of growing foiled when Saudi air defence forc- desperation,” he added. es downed five drones fired from The missile attack on Saudi Ara- Yemen at Abha airport. bia, a key US ally, came as tensions Claiming responsibility for the are rising between Tehran and June 12 attack, the Houthis said Washington. Two days earlier, dur- they fired a cruise missile at the air- ing a visit by German Foreign Min- port’s control tower and put it out ister Heiko Maas to Tehran, Iranian of service. Mohamed Abdul Salam, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad the Houthis’ chief negotiator, said Zarif said the United States “cannot the strike was a response to Saudi expect to stay safe.” “aggression” in Yemen. Zarif warned: “Whoever starts a “It is imperative for our people war with us will not be the one who to defend ourselves,” he posted on finishes it.” Twitter. Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies say Iran is using the Houthis and other proxy groups to target US al- Saudi Arabia is not the lies and strategic interests. only country the Houthis Saudi Minister of State for For- have placed in the eign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir, in May, crosshairs. said the Houthis were an “indivis- ible part” of Iran’s Islamic Revo- New provocation. A Saudi security officer walks in front of the building of the Abha International The Saudi General Authority of lutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Airport, June 13. (Reuters) Civil Aviation confirmed the air- “subject to the IRGC’s orders.” port’s arrival hall had been dam- “The Houthis confirm day af- aged but said traffic was operating ter day that they implement Iran’s the Arab coalition, and “the contin- are escalating and could spell dan- bia condemned the attack, which as normal. agenda by sacrificing the need of uation of the Iranian regime’s sup- ger for the region. “targeted innocent civilians,” and Riyadh said the attack consti- the Yemeni people for the benefit of port and practice of cross-border “It’s important to consider the issued a security alert. In another tuted “a clear and full recognition Iran,” Jubeir said on Twitter. terrorism.” geopolitical backdrop with the statement, the Pentagon said the of (the Houthis’) responsibility for An investigation by the Arab coa- Malki said the attack amounted growing US-Iran tensions and how attack showed “new evidence” of targeting civilians and civilian in- lition said the IRGC supplied the to “a war crime” and proved that these events relate to the crisis over Iran’s malicious role in the region. stallations that are subject to spe- cruise missile used in the attack. the “Houthis have obtained ad- Iran’s regional influence and activi- The European Union said “such cial protection under international “This attack… proves this terror- vanced weapons from Iran.” ties over the years,” Khan said. provocative attacks pose a threat humanitarian law.” ist militia’s acquisition of new spe- Analysts said attacks by Iran- “For the Saudi-led coalition to regional security and under- Since the war with the Houthis cial weapons,” said a statement by backed militias show that tensions and the wider international com- mine the UN-led political process munity, these attacks are a stark in Yemen.” reminder about why dangerous Bahrain called for a clear inter- threats like these, left alone to grow national stance on “Houthi ter- Saudi Arabia ups the ante on Iran-backed Houthis and advance, could be disastrous. rorism and Iranian support for it.” Collective resolve towards regional Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid Faith Salama attack against Abha International posed their “recklessness… (in) car- security goals will be strengthened bin Ahmed Al Khalifa called the Airport and the city of Khamis rying out Tehran’s orders,” which by these threats.” attack “a serious escalation using Mushait June 14, using drones that could lead them to “take the blame This is a “new message the Irani- Iranian weapons.” Dubai were reportedly intercepted by and (bear) alone the harsh and ans are sending,” Nizar Abdel Kad- Egypt’s foreign minister reiter- the Saudis. The Arab coalition re- painful response that could follow. er, a Lebanese military analyst, told ated that Cairo “stands with Saudi n attack by Iran-backed sponded with an air strike against “This means, in fact, that the the National. “Tehran is saying: ‘We Arabia against any targeting of its Houthis on Saudi Ara- military positions, including air- Houthis do not have their own cal- are capable of wreaking havoc with security and stability.” bia’s Abha International defence systems, in Sana’a Saudi culations. They are purely an Ira- the security and stability of the The United Arab Emirates A Airport further fuelled state television said. nian tool.” whole region.’” strongly denounced the “terror- regional divisions and jeopardised Riyadh said “appropriate meas- He said that, by using proxies, ist act, which is new proof of the Yemen’s fragile peace process. Saudi Deputy ures” would be taken to confront Iran can divert blame for the at- Houthis’ hostile and terrorist ap- A missile was fired June 12 into Defence Minister Prince the Houthis, indicating a possible tacks. “Nobody can prove that the proaches that seek to undermine the arrival hall of the airport in Khalid bin Salman new stage in the Yemeni conflict in official regime of the Islamic Re- the regional security and stability.” south-western Saudi Arabia, caus- which the coalition would focus on public is behind these attacks,” said While the UAE Ministry of For- ing dozens of injuries. Riyadh Houthi targets in Sana’a. Abdel Kader. eign Affairs and International Co- blamed Iran for the attack and “The continuation of the “Appropriate measures will be Saudi Arabia is not the only coun- operation expressed solidarity vowed to respond with “unwaver- Iranian regime’s aggression taken to confront and deter these try the Houthis have placed in the with the kingdom and extended ing resolve.” and reckless escalation, terrorist militias,” said Prince crosshairs, with threats being lev- support to “all measures taken to “Their targeting of a civilian air- whether directly or through Khalid. “We will stand against all elled at the United Arab Emirates, thwart any threat to (its) security port exposes to the world the reck- its militias, will result in grave those that aim to inflict harm on which is a key member of the Arab and stability.” lessness of Iran’s escalation and the consequences.” our security and interests, and we coalition and a Washington ally. “The security of both the UAE danger it poses to regional security will continue to adhere to all inter- “Our missiles are capable of and Saudi Arabia is indivisible and stability,” wrote Saudi Deputy For Riyadh, which since 2015 national laws and norms to protect reaching Riyadh and beyond Ri- and any threat or danger facing Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin has led a campaign in support of regional security and stability.” yadh, to Dubai and Abu Dhabi,” the kingdom is considered to be a Salman on Twitter. Yemen’s internationally recognised “The continuation of the Iranian Houthi leader Abdelmalik al- threat to security and stability in The day after the attack, the Sau- government, the Abha and Khamis regime’s aggression and reckless Houthi said on the militia-run Al the UAE,” it added in a statement. di-led Arab coalition carried out Mushait attacks were clear mes- escalation, whether directly or Masirah TV channel. “It is possible There was no immediate re- several strikes on Sana’a. Sources in sages from Tehran that Iran was through its militias, will result in to target strategic, vital, sensitive sponse from Iran, which has de- the Yemeni capital said there were prepared to escalate tensions that grave consequences,” he warned. and influential targets. We are able nied arming the Houthis. raids on three sites. Residents said analysts warn could spark a direct “The international community to strongly shake the Emirati econ- The Houthis previously used the strikes targeted Houthi military confrontation between Iran and must carry out its responsibility to o m y.” ballistic missiles to target Riyadh camps west and north of the city. the United States, a key Saudi ally. avoid this outcome.” Houthi attacks increased after and its airport. They launched The Arab coalition fighting the “The targeting of the Abha Inter- Violence in Yemen has escalated the United States removed sanc- bomb-laded drones targeting a key Houthis confirmed the strikes and national Airport is a new military in recent weeks, throwing a cease- tions waivers on Iranian oil exports oil pipeline and the south-western said military assets of the Iran- escalation,” said Saudi political fire agreement between the two — a devastating blow to Tehran’s Saudi city of Khamis Mushait. backed militia on the outskirts of researcher Ali Arishi. “(The) Hou- sides into question. The Saudi-led economy — and are believed to be On June 11, the Houthis launched Sana’a had been destroyed. The this’ use of a cruise missile is also coalition tightened its blockade of part of a regional strategy to gain at least two Qasef-2K drones at operation targeted “foreign experts a dangerous precedent and new a major seaport and the airport in geopolitical leverage. Khamis Mushait, which is home from terrorist organisations work- evidence of Iran’s support for the Sana’a, which is controlled by the The Houthis reportedly ramped to an air base. The state-run Saudi ing with the Houthis,” the coalition Yemeni militia by providing so- Houthis. up nonconventional war meth- Press Agency reported that the said without identifying the tar- phisticated weapons in violation of The official Saudi Press Agency ods in Yemen, including recruiting Saudi military “intercepted” two gets’ nationality or saying whether UN resolutions.” reported that the Arab coalition child fighters, using human shields, drones. they had been hit. Arishi said that, by targeting civil- had “intensified” air raids on the diverting humanitarian aid and The Houthis launched a second ian infrastructure, the Houthis ex- Houthis in north-western Yemen. planting landmines. Faith Salama is a Lebanese The US Embassy in Saudi Ara- journalist. June 16, 2019 3 Iran’s Escalation in Gulf

How Iran’s aggression is undermining US stature in the Middle East

Iman Zayat

espite talk of mediation efforts and shuttle diplo- macy, tensions between the United States and Iran Descalated, with Tehran engaging in hostile behaviour against Washington and its allies in the Arabian Gulf. While Tehran denies involve- ment in brazen attacks in the Gulf, there appears to be a pattern: An unprovoked attack threatens mari- time trade and more unprovoked attacks, via Iran’s proxies, target one of Washington’s allies or vice versa. The most recent incident tar- geted two tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The day before, there was an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport, claimed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. There are many indications that Iran was behind the attacks, especially that these attacks re- quired a high level of expertise and sophistication as well as weapons that are known to be in Tehran’s arsenal. The attacks also seem to be in- creasing in severity. Unlike previ- ous incidents, the ships attacked in the Gulf of Oman were heavily laid A sense of impunity. A member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chants slogans during a military drill in the Strait of with oil and chemicals when they Hormuz. (AFP) were reportedly targeted while on the move. The latest aggression was con- sider [US President Donald] Trump or otherwise, since Washington United States’ decline on the world In light of this, Iran feels invin- demned by Saudi Arabia and its as a person worth exchanging any withdrew from the Joint Compre- stage and reshape the geopolitical cible. The Iranians are convinced ally the United States. US Secretary message with.” hensive Plan of Action in 2018. order. that the US administration, caught of State Mike Pompeo accused “I have no answer for him While Zarif does not call the Iran has a reason for its confi- up in domestic political turbu- “Iran and its proxies” of work- (Trump) nor will I respond to him shots on whether to go to war — dence. It has run the math and lence, is unlikely to risk a misad- ing “against American and allied in the future,” Khamenei added. Khamenei has that role — his state- determined that it would have a venture in the Arabian Gulf. interests.” So far, Iran has done nothing but ments must echo conversations in distinct advantage in any military As a result, Tehran believes it Pompeo is not wrong. Washing- ridicule Trump’s handling of the the corridors of power. confrontation with the United is time to shatter Washington’s ton’s assessment of the evidence crisis to make Washington appear Tehran’s belief that the war has States. image of invincibility — which Iran concludes Tehran is to blame weak and unprepared for war. begun is also evident through its Iran holds a vast territory — 3 sees as a myth — emboldening for the crimes it has repeatedly Iran’s state media has worked tire- foreign policy. By enlisting proxies to 4 times larger than Iraq — with Shia militias across the region and denied. lessly to exaggerate the country’s and rogue actors throughout the a much larger population. This potentially sparking an arms race Why would Iran carry out such military prowess in relation to region to carry out its objectives in would render a US intervention far with US allies. attacks at a time when many coun- Washington. an increasingly aggressive manner, more complex than the one that Is the Trump administration tries, including Japan, Oman and This suggests that war is no Iran shows that it is committed to ousted Iraqi President Saddam really caught on the defensive? It Iraq, have been working to ease longer a possibility; it has effec- conflict and cannot be negotiated Hussein from power in 2003. seems so. Iran, time and again, has tensions? tively already begun. This is how with. Iranians also know that a ground scored points against the United The answer, as I have pointed the Iranian regime views the situ- So far, Iran’s escalation has offensive by US forces is nearly States, threatening its stature in out in previous commentaries, ation. been met with impunity. Wash- impossible because their moun- the Middle East with no penalty. is that Iran, unlike the rest of the Take Iranian Foreign Minister ington has failed to send a strong tain-filled terrain would make This leaves US allies in the Ara- world, is not interested in peace. Mohammad Javad Zarif’s warning response and, even worse, the it hard for US tanks to navigate. bian Gulf with few options. Going This could not be more obvi- issued June 10. The United States, international community cannot When it comes to the sea, Iran is forward, they must take note of ous than when looking at Iran’s he said, “cannot expect to stay come to an agreement on whether confident that the fate of the Strait the Iranian threat and do what response to mediation efforts and safe” after having initiated what Tehran is even responsible for the of Hormuz — the lone, narrow they can to combat it themselves, its repeated refusal to engage in he described as economic warfare recent attacks. maritime gateway between the either by strengthening their dialogue with Washington. against Tehran. The Iranians sense weak- Gulf and the larger Indian Ocean defences, becoming increasingly Even Iranian Supreme Leader Zarif’s sharp tone was unchar- ness and hope to exploit it. In — is in their hands and nearly all self-reliant in terms of security or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei put acteristic for the US-educated their minds, the United States is within range of their short-range developing new alliances in the it plainly. After meeting with diplomat and gave a disturbing “weaker than ever,” as Hadi al- missiles. This means no one would region and beyond. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo sign to the United States: Iran has Amiri, Tehran’s man in Baghdad, dare sail there or the ships or tank- Abe, Khamenei said that, despite considered itself as being in a state once said. As such, they are confi- ers, which could risk coming under Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of Japan’s efforts, he does “not con- of war, whether media, economic dent they can publicly expose the attack in the event of war. The Arab Weekly. Iran’s shift from ‘heroic stability’ to balance of terror

and imposed America’s “maximum Addressing Iranian businessmen Just as remarkably, the balance of terror.” pressure campaign” against Iran. after the US withdrawal from prediction nicely fits president With the risk of military While Iran’s economy sank the nuclear deal, Abd al-Rasool Rohani’s policy shift from confrontation close at hand, Ali Alfoneh deeper into recession and inflation Divsalar, a prominent strategic strategic patience to the “strategic Divsalar predicted “conflict soared, the leadership in Tehran affairs analyst, proposed three initiative” he announced in management structures at the chose to maintain its commitments scenarios. May but Divsalar also predicted international level, including hen facing a under the nuclear deal and In the first, Divsalar said: “Iran Iran would face “considerable Europe and even Arab states, will formidable adopted a policy of “strategic reaches an agreement with the problems at home.” take more serious steps to control “ opponent, patience.” EU, Russia and China and remains Divsalar’s third scenario is the crisis.” wrestlers However, waiting out Trump in the JCPOA… Europe provides that of “Iran’s hard exit from We have yet to see Iran’s “hard sometimes proved ineffective and, on the acceptable assurances to Iran, the JCPOA,” meaning “Iran, exit” from the nuclear deal but exercise anniversary of the US withdrawal meaning it guarantees oil sales.” apart from high-level [uranium] the Fujairah incident is a clear ‘heroicW flexibility,’” Iranian in May, Rohani announced The weakness of that scenario, enrichment also enhances the realisation of “stronger punitive Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Tehran’s intention to reactivate he warned, was “increased missile programme and engages in measures” he advocated a year said as he authorised President parts of its nuclear programme. American pressure against Iran,” stronger punitive measures in the ago. Reactions of the United States Hassan Rohani to engage in Rohani’s so-called “strategic which he argued would result Strait of Hormuz, Syria and other and American allies to a certain nuclear negotiations with the initiative” was not Tehran’s in “serious deterioration and countries in order to increase the extent validate Divsalar’s strategic world powers in 2013. only response. Sabotage against depletion of economic and social cost of US policy.” calculations but the events could Khamenei’s flexibility led to cargo vessels and oil tankers off resources.” This description This scenario, Divsalar warned, just as well have gone terribly the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Fujairah’s coast demonstrated roughly accounts for the regime’s is “risky” but he also found it wrong. Action (JCPOA), also known as the Tehran’s willingness to engage policy of strategic patience. rewarding: “It can be effective The gamble of Iranian Iran nuclear deal, in July 2015. in much more risky operations In the second scenario, Divsalar because it is capable of, through strategists, who desire to establish Yet Khamenei was clearly not to reach “balance of terror” with predicted: “Iran may opt for a soft strong pressure, [creating] a new a balance of terror, may provoke a flexible enough for US President Washington. exit from the JCPOA and begins dynamic and [achieving] a terror war Iran can ill afford. Donald Trump’s taste, who, The development in the high percentage enrichment but balance. In circumstances, where following a barrage of criticism of strategic thinking of the Iranian will not engage in special activities the enemy has increased threats Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at his predecessor in office, withdrew leadership is hardly surprising and concerning missile or regional against Iran, Tehran reciprocates the Arab Gulf States Institute in from the nuclear deal in May 2018 was publicly debated a year ago. issues.” in kind and operationalises the Washington. 4 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis Sudan Tensions over Sudan’s transition crisis defused but challenges abound

Amr Emam

Cairo

nalysts of the conflict in Sudan said they are hope- ful after a call for civil A disobedience was sus- pended and negotiations between protesters and the ruling Transi- tional Military Council resumed. However, the developments do not ensure a quick end to the crisis in Sudan because the main parties involved are holding fast to their positions, they added. “The whole situation can go back to square one once more and very quickly,” said Sudanese political analyst Mohamed Saleh Matar. “Parties to the conflict care only about power, nothing more.” Talks between Sudan’s military rulers and the opposition stalled June 3 following the bloody dis- persal of a major protest camp out- side the general army command in Khartoum. Dozens of demonstrators were killed when troops stormed the camp. The tragedy caused an in- ternational uproar, which forced the Transitional Military Council (TMC) to declare an investigation of the incident. A civil disobedience programme began June 9, followed a TMC an- nouncement that it would have elections in nine months, to de- mand the TMC handing power to Sensitive phase. Sudanese protesters chant slogans and wave national flags as they demonstrate during a rally in Khartoum, May 31. (AFP) civilians. The strike paralysed life in Sudan. Streets were empty and commercial outlets shuttered. also agreed to release political military council needs to under- pable of presenting any conces- also drawing attention to its inter- The suspension of the strike detainees as a measure of goodwill stand that it is in a much weaker sions,” Matar said. “They need to nal crisis. and the possible resumption of if the civil disobedience was called position after the June 3 massa- realise that they will never reach International powers have been talks were announced June 11 by off and negotiations resumed. c r e .” power without negotiations.” trying to influence events in Su- Mahmoud Drir, an adviser to Ethi- There is scepticism, however, There are fears in the TMC that dan and could be part of the prob- opian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, about the ability of the opposi- its leaders could be taken to court lem, observers said. who was in Khartoum to lead me- tion and the TMC to move beyond once power has shifted, hence the At the centre of the talks “The Sudanese have a good diation efforts in collaboration those measures. council’s insistence on leading the would be the formation of chance of ending the current cri- with the African Union. The insistence of the TMC to body proposed by Ahmed. a 15-member transitional sis, only if they have a will to do At the centre of the talks, he lead the transitional body will be The TMC announced June 10 sovereign council to so, away from foreign interfer- added, would be the formation an issue in the way of agreement that it had suspended and referred manage Sudan’s ence,” said Mohamed al-Shazly, of a 15-member transitional sov- between both sides, analysts said. to trial officers suspected of taking transition. a former Egyptian ambassador ereign council to manage Sudan’s “The council insists on manag- part in the June 3 violence. in Sudan. “Some Western pow- transition. The sovereign council ing the whole thing and this can The unwavering position of the The crisis in Sudan remained a ers are playing a negative role in was proposed by Ahmed, who said make the situation explode yet opposition, which may not have stressful situation internationally the crisis, which can make things eight of its members should be ci- again,” said Hani Raslan, an Afri- the necessary political expertise because of the risk of further vio- worse.” vilians and the remaining seven can affairs specialist at Egyptian to run the country, is another chal- lence. Sudan’s geopolitical impor- could come from the military. think-tank Ahram Centre for Po- lenge for Sudan, analysts said. tance as a midpoint between the Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly Drir noted that the TMC litical and Strategic Studies. “The “Opposition leaders are inca- Horn of Africa and North Africa is contributor in Cairo. Viewpoint For Sudan, it could be the light at the end of the tunnel ood news from campaign of civil disobedience, and paramilitary forces dispersed played by the military in the pro- Sudan is rare. begun after a deadly crackdown on them June 3 in a crackdown that cess, Cairo, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi Indeed, one tends to demonstrators, and resume talks killed dozens. denounced the violence and called Claude Salhani expect only dire with Sudan’s ruling generals. After that, protesters called for a for the resumption of talks. reports from The United States has engaged campaign of civil disobedience and While the news that the two sides Africa’s third largest in the Sudanese process to support most businesses closed while peo- agreed to negotiate was encourag- country, which has the apparent breakthrough. A top ple remained indoors. The protest- ing, observers remain cautious, Gbeen plagued with civil strife, US diplomat was sent to Khartoum ers threatened to pile more pressure given the country’s tumultuous his- ethnic cleansing and drastic food to talk to both sides and to press on the generals by releasing a list tory of violence since independence shortages causing famine and the generals to avoid the return of members for a new ruling body from Anglo-Egyptian rule some 60 disease. to crackdown measures against — the key point of dispute between years ago. Suddenly, unexpected good tid- protesters. A special envoy was the two sides. Still, the return to negotiation vin- ings emerge. The main antagonists named by Washington to monitor As a result of Ethiopian media- dicates the pragmatic stance of do- in the current conflict — the military the transition process. tion and of the civil disobedience mestic and international actors who and the protesters — appear to be The United States, which had gradually losing steam, both parties pushed for political engagement to working towards a peaceful settle- largely been absent from Sudan agreed to return to negotiations. the crisis. It would have been too ment. during the al-Bashir years, stepped The UN Security Council said easy — but hardly helpful — to go Optimists find reassuring that back into the country with the ar- sides should “continue working back to the track of internationally the Sudanese appear to be shed- rival in Khartoum of US Assistant together towards a consensual imposed sanctions as advocated by ding the zero-sum game approach Secretary of State for African Affairs solution” to the crisis and voiced US actor and Sudan activist George that deadlocked many conflicts in Tibor Nagy. A US State Department support for African-led diplomatic Clooney. the Middle East and North Africa. communique said Nagy would call efforts. It is highly unusual and very note- Rather, they are accepting to live for a “cessation of attacks against The Security Council also called worthy that anywhere in the Arab and let live. They are willing to seek civilians and urge parties to work to- for an immediate halt to attacks world or Africa, antagonists would their country’s welfare as a common wards creating an enabling environ- against civilians and stressed the agree to sit down and talk when responsibility, not as spoils of war. ment” for talks to resume. importance of upholding human they seemed on a collision course. The leaders of the protests, which Sudan has been led by a Tran- rights, a week after Russia and It is always wise, however, to take It is always wise, toppled the 30-year rule of pro-Is- sitional Military Council since China blocked a similar draft state- a step back from the abyss when however, to take a lamist authoritarian Omar al-Bashir, al-Bashir was toppled April 11 after ment on the crisis. looming catastrophe stares you in are not letting the bloodshed of months of nationwide protests Protest leaders said they would the eye. step back from the recent weeks lock them into a cycle against his iron-fisted rule. Follow- name a new ruling body to replace abyss when looming of hate and revenge as “revolution- ing al-Bashir’s removal, protesters the generals. Claude Salhani is a regular aries” often do. camped outside military head- Regional pressure might have columnist for The Arab Weekly and catastrophe stares An Ethiopian mediator said quarters in Khartoum for weeks to nudged the generals to the negotiat- a senior fellow at the Institute of you in the eye. protest leaders agreed to end their demand civilian rule before security ing table. While supporting the role World Affairs in Washington. June 16, 2019 5 News & Analysis Egypt

Closing ranks. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki during a welcoming ceremony at the presidential palace in Cairo, January 9. (AFP) Egypt, Eritrea boost coordination amid regional tensions, Sudan unrest

Hassan Abdel Zaher the specific reason behind the visit by unrest in the North African rying to Cairo, especially under and Ethiopia. Ethiopia suspended of the Eritrean leader but the fact is country, especially with the pres- ousted Sudanese President Omar work in August on the Renaissance Cairo that the region bursts at the seams ence of terrorist groups in Libya al-Bashir. Dam because of technical prob- with important developments.” and some parts of Egypt, the Si- Al-Bashir used to have tense lems. In April this year, al-Bashir ritrean President Isaias Egypt was the first country to nai Peninsula in particular. This is relations with Cairo and de- was ousted by his country’s army Afwerki met with Egyptian recognise Eritrea’s independence likely why both Cairo and Asmara veloped strong coordination after months of street protests. President Abdel Fattah from Ethiopia in 1991. The Eritrean are corresponding and meeting with Addis Ababa at Egypt’s ex- Nevertheless, healthy relations E al-Sisi for talks on coop- flag was raised at its embassy in more frequently. pense. This was true in the case between Khartoum and Ethiopia eration between the two countries Cairo even before it was raised in of the Grand Ethiopian Renais- can still cause worries in Cairo. and the situation in the Horn of Eritrea. sance Dam, a multibillion-dollar Analysts in Cairo said they did Africa. In recent years, Eritrea has be- Healthy relations hydroelectric structure built by not see any links between Afwer- The leaders discussed develop- come more important for Egypt between Khartoum and Ethiopia on the Nile, Egypt’s only ki’s visit to Egypt and Ahmed’s ments in Sudan and Somalia and because of changes in the region. Ethiopia can still cause source of water. trip to Khartoum. Sudan’s stabil- coordination efforts during their The unrest in Yemen threatened to worries in Cairo. While the project would have ity, they said, is in everybody’s in- June 8 meeting in Cairo. Sisi said destabilise the southern entrance deprived Egypt of a sizeable por- terests, regardless of tensions be- Egypt wanted to develop close co- of the Red Sea and affect the pros- Eritrean Foreign Minister Os- tion of its annual water share from tween the countries of the region. ordination with Eritrea. He high- pects of the Suez Canal. Eritrea has man Saleh Mohammed has vis- the Nile, al-Bashir insisted that “Unrest in Sudan will have its lighted the need for specific plans an extended Red Sea coastline, ited Cairo twice in five years and the project would benefit Sudan, toll on security in its neighbour- to push cooperation with Asmara only kilometres from the coast of Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh which suffered an acute electricity ing countries, which is why every- in all fields. Yemen. Shoukry travelled to Asmara two shortage. Sudan planned to buy body is extending a helping hand Afwerki’s visit to Cairo, his “It plays a central role in the se- times in the same period. electricity generated by the dam. to end the crisis in this country,” fourth in less than five years, came curity of the region,” said African Afwerki’s visit to Cairo was a Coordination between Cairo said Sayed Felefil, a member of the at a time of major change in the affairs specialist Heba al-Besh- day after Ethiopian Prime Minister and Asmara used to send warning African Affairs Committee in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and in beshi. “Eritrea’s Red Sea ports put Abiy Ahmed led an ambitious me- signals to Addis Ababa and Khar- Egyptian parliament. the vicinity of Egypt and Eritrea, it in a powerful position.” diation bid in Khartoum between toum, given that Sudan’s and Ethi- “I believe that changes happen- analysts said. However, Eritrea has been Sudan’s revolutionary forces and opia’s relations with Eritrea were ing in the region these days will “A lot is happening in the region, part of the route used by terror- the ruling Transitional Military strained. Tensions were partly al- end strains in relations between which is why these two countries ist groups seeking to establish a Council. leviated in September when Eri- Cairo and other African capitals.” are in dire need of coordination,” presence in the Horn of Africa and Ahmed’s visit to Sudan was co- trea and Ethiopia signed a peace said Mohamed Hijazi, a former North Africa. ordinated with the African Union. agreement in Saudi Arabia. Hassan Abdel Zaher is a assistant to the Egyptian foreign Egypt, which shares a long bor- Close relations between Khartoum Egypt was also given relief, Cairo-based contributor to minister. “Nobody can speculate der with Libya, has been affected and Addis Ababa were always wor- thanks to developments in Sudan The Arab Weekly. Cairo to attend Manama meeting, even as it voices reservations

Amr Emam position on the blueprint June 2 PA spokesman Nabil Abu Rudai- sovereignty over the Syrian Golan concerned. when he said Egypt backed the na has described the blueprint as Heights in March this year,” said In October 2017, Shoukry told cause of the Palestinians and the “sterile” and said, of the planned Emad Gad, a senior researcher at the Egyptian Arabic daily Ahram Cairo positions they took to determine Manama gathering, that an eco- Egyptian think-tank Ahram for that the deal did not mean that their own destiny. nomic plan for solving the conflict Political and Strategic Studies. Egypt would give any territory to gypt’s possible participa- “Egypt will not approve of any- without a political vision would “Trump implemented another anybody. “Sometimes things are tion at a conference on thing the Palestinians reject,” Sisi lead to nothing. part of the deal a year earlier when said to be trial balloons to find out the economic incentives said. Little is known about the deal he ordered the relocation of the US whether they can be put on the ta- E of a US Middle East peace He scoffed at reports that Egypt but Kushner and US Secretary Embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.” ble,” Shoukry said. plan, scheduled for late June in would give parts of Sinai to the of State Mike Pompeo have had Egypt’s participation at the Bah- Bahrain, would carry weight, giv- Palestinians as part of any US a tough time selling the deal to rain meeting is important for many en Cairo’s strategic and political plan. Looking at Sinai Bedouins Arab leaders, media reports said. Egyptian President reasons, analysts said. Egypt was importance in the region. attending the event where he was White House officials said the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi the first Arab country to sign a Cairo must attend such an speaking, Sisi asked: “Will you deal would be unveiled after the peace treaty with Israel. It shares event since it is a principal party give anything to anyone?” Israeli elections, which took place borders with the Jewish state. to Israeli-Palestinian peacemak- The plan, even though details in April. They then backtracked “Egypt will not approve of Cairo has strong contacts with the ing, political analysts said. haven’t been released, has re- and said the details of the deal anything the Palestinians Palestinians of Gaza and the occu- “Egypt has to be present, even ceived a series of blows, including would be announced after Rama- reject.” pied West Bank. It is also in close if it has reservations about the the failure of Israeli Prime Minis- dan. coordination with Tel Aviv. way the whole thing is managed,” ter Binyamin Netanyahu’s bid to However, Netanyahu’s inability Both moves were rejected by Analysts said, however, this par- said Tarek al-Kholi, a member of form a new government after his to form a government is another Cairo, which warned against their ticipation wouldn’t change Egypt’s the Foreign Relations Committee April election victory. setback for the deal and there is ramifications on the situation in policy of demanding a settlement in the Egyptian parliament. Sisi’s allusion to Cairo’s poten- uncertainty in some parts of the the region. to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict He said, however, that Egyp- tial rejection of the US peace plan, region over Trump’s ability to win In March, Egypt said the Golan that is satisfactory to the Palestin- tian participation in the confer- if it doesn’t fit the Palestinians’ a second term in the presidency Heights was occupied Arab terri- ians, analysts said. ence would not mean that Egypt criteria of a just settlement, de- next year. tory and warned that a change of “The only satisfactory settle- approves of the “Deal of the Cen- rives from Palestinian opposition Some Egyptian analysts said the its status would fuel conflicts in ment will be one that allows the tury,” a blueprint propagated by to the plan. US blueprint for liquidating rather the region. It said the same about Palestinians to establish their in- US President Donald Trump and The Palestinian Authority (PA) than solving the Palestinian-Israe- the relocation of the US Embassy dependent state within the pre- designed by his son-in-law and has said, on numerous occasions, li conflict has started going into ef- to Jerusalem. 1967 borders,” said Akram Badred- adviser Jared Kushner. that it would not accept a settle- fect in an irreversible manner. In February, Egyptian Foreign dine, a political science professor Egyptian President Abdel Fat- ment if it didn’t name East Jeru- “The first step on the road of im- Minister Sameh Shoukry said his at Cairo University. “This state tah al-Sisi, speaking June 2, raised salem the capital of the aspired plementing the blueprint started country did not have details as far must also have East Jerusalem as speculation about his country’s Palestinian state. when the US recognised Israel’s as the “Deal of the Century” was its capital.” 6 June 16, 2019 Opinion

Editorial The dangerous games Iran plays

ith the June 13 attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the region has been once again thrown into a major crisis situation. Not less than six tankers Whave been hit near the global strategic Strait of Hormuz in about a month, which is unprec- edented and reason for utmost concern. The latest Gulf of Oman incidents occurred just a day after the Iran-backed Houthis fired a cruise missile at the Abha International Airport, a Saudi civilian facility, causing 26 injuries. Drones aimed at the same airport were intercepted June 14. Iran and its proxies were found to be behind May 12 attacks on vessels off the Fujairah coast. Investigations are yet to determine the full extent of Iran’s involvement in the most recent incidents but there is strong prelimi- nary evidence. “It is the assessment of the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks that occurred in the Gulf of Oman today,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said June 13. “This assessment, he explained, “is based on intelligence, the weapons used, the level of expertise needed to execute the operation, © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly recent similar Iranian attacks on shipping, and the fact that no proxy group operating in the area has the resources and proficiency to The real problem with Iran is its regime act with such a high degree of sophistication.” Another piece of evidence was the brazen return of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the scene of the crime June 14. In Khairallah Khairallah broad daylight, they removed an unexploded limpet mine from the Kokuka Courageous The problem with Iran resides in a regime that believes that “exporting tanker. It was a blatant attempt — captured on revolution” is its sole purpose and reason for existing. videotape — at eliminating the evidence of Iran’s involvement. ran is beginning to realise which, since the signing of the of the Yemeni territory controlled Iran had used the same type of mines the effects of the US sanc- Cairo Agreement in 1969, has by the Houthis? Does Yemen against oil tankers in 1987 and 1988 in the tions against it and the been subjected to the tyranny need more ignorance, misery, so-called “Tanker War.” weight of the American of illegal weapons and militias underdevelopment and spread The incriminating pattern is clear. pressure on the Europeans, throughout its territory? of disease in all fields? No one in Tehran previously threatened to close the who have no choice but What is Iran doing in Syria Tehran has revealed the Houthis’ global strategic passageway if it was not Ito bow to the demands of the other than supporting a economic, political or educational allowed to export its oil. Increasingly airtight United States. bloodthirsty minority regime programmes. sanctions have deprived Iran of more half of Therefore, all of Iran’s threats that seeks, in partnership The problem with Iran does not its oil income. The Houthis, Iran’s proxies in are meaningless, even though with Tehran, to displace the reside in the agreement on the Yemen, attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red there is near unanimity in largest number of Syrians from Iranian nuclear programme. It Sea strait last July. Washington on the need to avoid their homes to bring about an resides in a regime that believes The world cannot passively stand by a military clash with Tehran. US irreversible demographic change that “exporting revolution” watching as world peace is endangered by President Donald Trump knows in the country? is its sole purpose and reason Tehran’s reckless behaviour. Arab League that the American people do not What is Iran doing in Iraq for existing. There is no room Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit has favour such a war in the absence except seeking to replicate in for the success of any renewed rightfully urged international solidarity “to of a clear Iranian provocative that country the experience Iranian attempt to remarket send an unequivocal and unambiguous action aimed at the US presence of the Islamic Republic, where the nuclear agreement. Europe message to our neighbours that subversive in the region. the Islamic Revolutionary is not convinced and the US activities are no longer acceptable,” including In any case, there is an Guard Corps (IRGC) is the most administration knows all the “concealing themselves behind regional American war against Iran. The important tool for exercising the details of Iranian behaviour of the proxies or grey zone operation that are nature of this war is economic. power of the supreme leader in last 40 years. non-attributable to their original perpetra- There is nothing that calls for a Tehran? Does Iran have new marketable tors.” military intervention and direct All it has to do in Iraq to attain goods other than the nuclear It is not clear what the Iranians and possibly confrontation as long as the main that objective is to marginalise deal? Let’s see. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and US objective is to send a clear the role of the national army in Iran sought to own nuclear regional proxies could have been trying to message to Iran, a message co- favour of the dominance of the weapons. What was the result of achieve though their attacks. There is, written with Arab countries, led Popular Mobilisation Forces, that? The only result was pushing however, an emerging consensus they were by Saudi Arabia, which recently with the idea of course that those the region into an arms race, trying to destabilise the oil market to their hosted three summits — Arab, forces would play in Iraq the role especially since no significant advantage and to position themselves as Islamic and Gulf — that strongly of the IRGC in Iran. state in the region, including untouchables despite their endless provoca- condemned Tehran’s actions What is Iran doing in Yemen? Is Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, tions and acts of aggression. outside Iran’s borders. there really a future for any part would yield to the fait accompli. Iran has described the US sanctions as The content of the message Iran lost the long war it thought “economic war and terrorism” and pledged to is that the nuclear agreement is it had been waging on the United fight them. It is fighting them now with its a thing of the past and that it is States since the affair of the own brand of terrorism. impossible to remarket it once hostages at the US Embassy in In doing so, Tehran seems to be convinced a new cover has been found. Tehran in November 1979. It that it can get away with the crime. Trump and his team are not lost that war for two very simple “As long as there is significant ambiguity Barack Obama and his associates, reasons: It omitted to build a the attacks won’t produce a casus belli (cause such as Valerie Jarrett, who strong economy connected with for war),” said Jack Watling, a researcher at the was the former US president’s extraordinary developments in Royal United Services Institute in London. closest adviser and a friend of the the world and it has not built a Tehran thinks it has covered its tracks but it Obama’s, and who was utterly model for a successful political is seriously stretching the limits of implausi- fascinated by Iran given that she experiment that can be exported ble deniability. It is not Iranian Foreign grew up there. outside its territory. Politically, Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s incredible For the mediation of German Iran has nothing to export except claims that can earn Tehran some shred of Foreign Minister Heiko Maas to an experience based on rogue credibility. succeed and for the success of militias that wreak havoc and It is too early to predict what ripple effects Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo corruption. the attacks on freedom and safety of naviga- Abe, who also visited Tehran, Whether or not the United tion will have. Iran will have to change. States negotiates with Iran is The Iranians seem to be risking a cata- This change can’t just be in not the problem. The problem is strophic showdown with the United States. pretty rhetoric that speaks of a whether Iran will transform itself Asked what he intends to do about Iran, US non-aggression agreement with into a normal country like all the President Donald Trump told Fox News: the Gulf states. This change is other states of the region. “We’re going to see.” He also said that any linked to Iran’s behaviour in For that to happen, it will take move to close the Strait of Hormuz would “not every country where Islamic a fundamental change of regime. last long.” Revolutionary Guard Corps- This is an inevitable change even Iran’s aggressive moves have been for many aligned militias are engaged in if Trump and US Secretary of State years destabilising the region and jeopardis- specific activities in the service Mike Pompeo keep repeating that ing its security. of a project that serves to the United States is not aiming to There is legitimate concern around the destabilise Arab societies. make such a change. world that Iran’s provocations are not over. Dangerous project. An Iranian clergyman What is Iran doing in Lebanon More than ever, Tehran is putting global peace looks at missiles on display at Imam if not trying to destroy the state Khairallah Khairallah is a and security at risk. Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, last institutions of this small country, February. (AP) Lebanese writer. June 16, 2019 7 Opinion

Sudan is in transition. But to what? Published by Al Arab Publishing House Rashmee Roshan Lall Whatever happens, Sudan’s transition will be a Publisher lengthy process. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD hat is the feminists and liberal Muslim people occasionally forcing considering the only state to Editor-in-Chief state of groups. the battle against a uniquely collapse after 2011 was Libya, Sudan now Unlike in Egypt, Tunisia, resilient state. Does Sudan 2019 where foreign intervention by Oussama Romdhani that activists Libya, Yemen and Syria, Su- really mean little or nothing, the United States and its allies have called dan’s Islamic fundamentalists then? tried to co-opt the insurgents’ off a general couldn’t hijack the uprising be- Despite Achcar’s gloomy struggle. It led to a many-sided, Managing Editor Wstrike and civil disobedience cause they had been in collabo- predictions, three things well-armed conflict that contin- Iman Zayat campaign after a 2-month ration with al-Bashir. The rank distinguish Sudan from other ues, supported at various ends standoff with the military? and file of the Sudanese Army regional protests. of the spectrum by disparate Deputy Managing Editor It’s not clear if a transition to remains in broad sympathy First, the protesters’ refusal foreign powers. and Online Editor civilian-led democratic rule has with the politics of the revolt. to empty the public squares That said, it’s not clear how Mamoon Alabbasi become more likely. There is no Going by the above, Sudan after celebrating the ruler’s long Sudan will remain a rela- certainty the Sudanese military, should technically be a tem- downfall. Mindful of the les- tively organic struggle, with Senior Editor which removed President Omar plate for the successful exercise sons from Egypt, the Suda- only the Saudis and Emiratis John Hendel al-Bashir from power in April of people power in the Arab nese have stayed with Unlike in serving as “foreign” inter- during the popular uprising world but it isn’t, not yet. the script, which seeks Egypt, Tunisia, ested parties. On June 12, Chief Copy Editor against his 30-year rule, will be Achcar, one of the few schol- the return of political Libya, Yemen and the US State Depart- Richard Pretorius minded to complete the pro- ars to disdain “lazy” evalua- power to civil society Syria, Sudan’s ment dispatched through democratic Copy Editors cess of wholesale change. All tions of Arab street protests as fundamentalists Tibor Nagy, assistant that can be said is that Sudan is a spring analogous to Prague means, including secretary of state couldn’t hijack the Stephen Quillen in transition. But to what? 1968, said the region is “in the elections. They’re still for African affairs to Kyle Arensdorf Gilbert Achcar, Lebanon- midst of a long-term revolu- at it, albeit in a more uprising because they Khartoum. He was born professor at London’s tionary process born out of the nuanced way, one that had been in accompanied by the East/West Section Editor School of Oriental and African region’s very deep structural gives the army a chance collaboration with newly appointed US Mahmud el-Shafey (London) Studies, said the best hope is a crisis.” This is a “social and to collaborate. al-Bashir. special envoy for Sudan, long-term revolutionary pro- economic blockage brought Second, the need to retired veteran diplomat Gulf Section Editor cess, albeit with uncertain re- about by the combination of maintain the nonviolent char- Donald Booth. Mohammed Alkhereiji sults. Achcar has written more [International Monetary Fund] acter of the movement. In the American analysts such as than a dozen books on the IMF-sponsored neoliberalism first wave of protests, starting Jason Blazakis, former director Society and Travel Middle East and North Africa and the rotten authoritarian in 2011, protesters chanted of the Office of Counterterror- Sections Editor region, focusing particularly on political systems that impose it “Silmiyya, silmiyya” (Peaceful, ism Finance and Designations Samar Kadi the “Arab spring” and what he throughout the Middle East and peaceful”) to signify they were at the State Department, argue calls the “morbid symptoms” North Africa,” he said. peaceful but the Sudanese have for greater US involvement but of Arab uprisings from 2011. Accordingly, it would be been especially careful not to the best hope for Sudan and the Senior Correspondents He said the Sudanese protest quite wrong to view regional provoke the military powers region is Ethiopian mediation. is “the most progressive of all uprisings as a spring, Achcar into justifying a massive crack- Whatever happens, Sudan’s Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) the uprisings we’ve seen in the said, “that would, just like the down. That it still happened transition will be a lengthy Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) region,” the most advanced in season, last a few months and — on June 3 — and the internet process. Kelly Kennedy (Washington) terms of organisation as well end with mere constitutional was switched off is nothing as politics. This, because the changes or end in failure.” compared to what might have Rashmee Roshan Lall is a Regular Columnists Sudanese movement includes By that doleful measure, been. columnist for The Arab Weekly. Rashmee Roshan Lall disparate progressive forces, the region seems doomed to Third, the Sudanese street Her blog can be found at www. Claude Salhani not least professional and struggle on — quiet if not really is wary of foreign interven- rashmee.com and she is on workers associations, leftists, peaceful — and with ordinary tion of any kind. This is wise Twitter: @rashmeerl. Yavuz Baydar Correspondents Nazli Tarzi (London) Do Russian-US-Israeli understandings Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) include freeing Syria from the grip of Iran? Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Chief Designer Baha al-Awam Marwen el-Hmedi For the Russians, Assad is a temporary figurehead for a transitional Designers phase entirely managed according to their will. Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali he Jerusalem three Noes standing in the way meeting between of normalisation with Syria the Russians, the are: No normalisation without Israelis and the US approval; no normalisa- Contact editor at: Americans at the tion without concrete steps [email protected] end of June aims to towards a political solution to Tend Iran’s presence in Syria. the Syrian crisis that has been In exchange for Washington’s going on for eight years; and and Tel Aviv’s demands on this no normalisation without the matter, Moscow’s first condi- active participation of Moscow tion will be the recognition of in the US-Arab war on Iranian Al Arab Publishing House Russia’s mandate over Syria regional encroachment. Quadrant Building and its second is the normali- Alliances in the Middle East 177-179 Hammersmith Road sation of Arab and Western re- are being reshaped on new bas- London W6 8BS lations with the Syrian regime, es. The region and the nature with some conditions. of its international relations are The Russians’ efforts to nor- formulated according to enmity malise Arab-Syrian relations do to or alliance with Iran. Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 not imply their desire to restore It is true that the United Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Syrian President Bashar Assad’s States may renounce its war legitimacy, as if nothing had on Iran if Trump leaves the happened in Syria since 2011. White House after the next US For the Russians, Assad is a presidential elections but, until US Publisher: temporary figurehead for a then, the regional situa- The Arab Weekly USA LLC. transitional phase entirely tion is an opportunity for managed according to political investment in [email protected] their will. At the end the region. Perhaps A new gamble. Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Israeli Prime [email protected] of that period, the Curtailing what has been Minister Binyamin Netanyahu during their meeting in the Kremlin in curtains will be the influence of stuck for many Moscow, last April. (AP) Tel: 248-679-6624 forever drawn Iran and Turkey in years could be on the dark era Syria does not mean undone in one of Assad father it would be handed year, especially back to being one country, at and oppsition alike. and son. back to the Syrians regarding the least geographically. The three Arab conditions for The po- Syrian crisis. Curtailing the influence normalisation with the Assad litical distance as an independent No one is of Iran and Turkey in Syria regime should not remain rigid. and sovereign separating Rus- relying on Assad does not mean it would be Whoever thinks the Russians Subscription & Advertising: state. sia and most of to rein Iran in and handed back to the Syrians will boot the Iranians out of [email protected] Damascus’s Arab ad- expel it from Syria, as an independent, sovereign Syria is deluded. At best, the Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 versaries is quite small nor is anyone count- and constitutional state but Russians will expel Iranian mili- but convincing the Arab ing on him to curb Turkish it does mean that the rivalry tary arms and proxies from the regimes of normalising rela- ambitions in northern Syria. and competition between the country. The cultural, economic Mohamed Al Mufti tions with Syria must first jump Unfortunately, everybody is four occupiers — the Russians, and political occupation by Marketing & Advertising over the three “Noes” that the relying on the Russian-Ameri- the Turks, the Iranians and Iran that would remain would Manager Arab countries are not willing can-Israeli understandings that the Americans — would have require great Arab pressure to to negotiate while US President could recover Damascus from pushed the political solution of be cleared from Syria. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 Donald Trump remains in of- the grip of Iran’s velayat-e faqih the crisis a step forward. It may www.alarab.co.uk fice. and delineate Syria’s borders be a serious step in ending the Baha al-Awam is a Syrian For most Arab countries, the with the Turks so that it goes suffering of Syrians, loyalists writer. 8 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Syria regime using influential Muslim clerics to fight extremism

Sami Moubayed Sheikh Mahmoud al-Hout returned to war-torn Aleppo, after seven years of silent defection in Egypt. Beirut His comeback was orchestrated by the Russians, who are handling fter 9-11, a group of Da- reconciliation agreements in Syria, mascus-based seculars especially with religious or social tried setting up a centre figures who carry weight on the Syr- A to study jihadist thought ian street. that led to the attacks on the Unit- An important figure in his native ed States. The project never kicked Aleppo, Hout is poised to return to off because of a shortage of funds the al-Naha Islamic Centre, which and lack of coordination between he helped found before the conflict its founders, an assortment of started, training a new generation Ba’athists, Communists and Nas- of “moderate” Islamists. Last year, serists. the Russians secured the return of The premises were eventually Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir, a promi- sold to a bank and the project aban- nent tribal chief from Deir ez-Zor on doned. Last May, a similar initiative the Euphrates River who joined the was announced in Damascus with opposition in 2011. the same agenda. This time, how- Syrian authorities clearly see ever, it was being handled by pow- promise in the clerics, who they be- erful Muslim clerics with plenty of lieve are the only components of so- cash at their disposal. They prom- ciety capable of delivering progress. ised to combat radical Islam with Courting them pays off and it makes a softer, more moderate version of authorities look good, especially Islam. considering accusations they are waging “war on Sunni Islam.” The The upper hand in the snuggling up to this very powerful future of Syria will be for street is not new. the clerical community, After a bloody showdown with the Muslim Brotherhood in Febru- Old strategy. Syrian President Bashar Assad (C) greets Muslim clerics as he arrived to attend Eid no doubt. ary 1982, then-President Hafez As- al-Fitr prayers in Damascus, June 5. (AFP) Seeing little promise in secu- sad ordered a nationwide construc- larised thinkers who couldn’t put tion of mosques with centres for Last year, a presidential decree be rented to restaurants, hotels or dence, all led by the minister. their words into action, Syrian offi- memorisation of the Quran. was passed, greatly empowering the commercial establishments, gener- The upper hand in the future of cialdom put its full weight behind When the current conflict started clerical community or creating what ating steady tax-free cash, exempt- Syria will be for the clerical commu- the clerics. in March 2011, authorities swiftly many described as a “state-within- ed from the red tape of the Ministry nity, no doubt. Apart from a handful Al-Cham International Islamic succumbed to demands by influ- a-state.” Months of chronic short- of Finance. of notable exceptions who defected Centre for Combating Terrorism ential Umayyad mosque preacher ages in heating fuel and gasoline di- To do away with the dual religious to join the opposition, its main fig- and Extremism, inaugurated by Said Ramadan al-Bouti, described verted people’s attention from how authority in Syria, the new law gave ures put their full weight behind the President Bashar Assad in May, is of- as “painful” by the Ba’athists. They powerful these figures had become, the Minister of Religious Endow- state in 2011, delivering one favour ficially attached to the Ministry of included closing the Damascus Ca- especially after they set up the “Re- ments the right to hire and fire the after another. It is now time for pay- Religious Endowments. It includes sino, lifting a ban on wearing the ligious Youth Team,” mandated to mufti of the republic, an authority back, they believe, through greater a department to train mosque niqab at government-run schools, monitor public vice and collect alms previously vested in the presidency. autonomy for the preachers and preachers, an academy for sharia and setting up a satellite television from worshipers. Future tenures would be fixed at more powerful tools at their dis- studies and a centre to monitor rad- channel for the preachers called They were also allowed to rent three years, although the current posal, like schools and universities, icalism in Syria and throughout the “Noor Cham.” properties of the Ministry of Reli- mufti has been at his post since satellite channels and a state-of-the Arab world. Top-line clerics from Secularists and Arab national- gious Affairs — being the wealthi- 2005 while his predecessor held art think-tank in Damascus. Damascus and Aleppo are among ists cried foul, both then and now, est ministry in Syria — generating the job from 1965-2005. Also, au- the centre’s faculty and founding warning that such measures were income to bankroll their projects, thorities created the “Higher Fiqh Sami Moubayed is a Syrian committee. leading to the “Islamification of So- such as charity groups or the Cham Council” composed of 20 clerics to historian and author of “Under the Days later, prominent cleric ciety.” Centre. Ministry property could decide on issues of Islamic jurispru- Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015).

Despite warnings, Trump unlikely to oppose Syrian-Russian offensive in Idlib

Pictures or videos of suffering even over the advice of the Putin and Assad may believe anti-Russian hawk), at the end of children have made a particular Pentagon, which has warned that there are elements in the US the day, the US president is not Gregory impression on him, as when he many ISIS fighters escaped during government that would not mind going to do much to oppose their Aftandilian saw footage of young victims of a the final months of the anti-ISIS Idlib being “cleared of terrorists.” offensive. chemical weapons attack in Syria campaign. Indeed, differences Former US envoy to the anti-ISIS Still, with some 3 million in 2017, for which he ordered mis- over Syria policy seems to have coalition Brett McGurk stated last people in Idlib (many of them n a surprise move given his sile strikes on a Syrian air base. been the chief reason James September that Idlib province is having fled there from other cosiness with the Kremlin Nonetheless, there is every Mattis resigned as US secretary of the “largest al-Qaeda safe haven parts of Syria), a humanitarian leader, US President Donald reason to believe Trump will not defence in 2018. since 9/11.” crisis under Trump’s watch could Trump tweeted that Russia respond militarily to an offensive After much back and forth, Although McGurk has since redound against him. In late May, and Syria are “bombing the in Idlib unless the Syrian regime Trump settled on keeping about resigned over differences with the “NewsHour” programme on hell out of Idlib province in uses chemical weapons there. 400 US troops in eastern Syria but Trump over Syria policy, his the Public Broadcasting Service ISyria and indiscriminately killing That seems to be a red line for he does not want those troops thinking may not be an isolated aired a segment of a Syrian child many innocent civilians.” Trump and he reacted briefly but to move into Idlib where they one in US policy circles. Indeed, in Idlib saying though a transla- Trump then asked rhetorically militarily in 2017 and 2018 when could come under fire and then in May, Michael Mulroy, deputy tor: “We are pleading with Mr of those countries: “What will it such weapons were used. force his hand to send additional assistant secretary of defence Trump, please stop the criminals get you? STOP.” He likes to be seen as the “anti- troops to protect the force. for the Middle East, stated that from bombing our villages and Trump later said “bad things Obama” and has highlighted the In other words, he sees Idlib Idlib was “essentially the largest to protect the Syrian people, the are happening” in Idlib. He may fact that former US President as a potential quagmire and does collection of al-Qaeda affiliates in defenceless civilians.” have been reacting to reports Barack Obama did not enforce his not want to step in the quicksand. the world.” While Trump previously about the bombing of hospitals in own red line in 2012 when chemi- Given the proximity of forces in Outside of fomenting a humani- stated: “I stopped the slaughter Idlib and the flow of refugees out cal weapons were used in Syria. that province — either in observa- tarian crisis, a potential drawback of perhaps three million people’ of the province after attacks on Trump’s reasons for staying tion posts or on the ground — the of the Russian-Syrian offensive [in Idlib] and “nobody talks about civilians. away militarily from the Idlib potential for a US-Russian clash in Idlib is that HTS fighters would that,” he is clearly nervous about Although Trump is not known crisis are many and both Russian would loom large. Although Putin disperse to other countries, mak- Idlib turning into a political prob- to be interested in the domestic President Vladimir Putin and Syr- would likely not want a confron- ing the counterterrorism effort lem for him. situation of other countries, he ian President Bashar Assad seem tation either, from Trump’s per- to monitor and apprehend them Hence, Trump’s message to is said to be moved by visuals. to understand his reticence. spective it is better to stay away. much more difficult. Putin (perhaps to be conveyed Trump campaigned in 2016 In addition, the province is Some reports suggest that HTS through diplomatic channels) go- against the United States getting reported to be governed in many is acting more as an organised ing forward might be: in the cam- involved in the Syrian civil war areas by the terrorist group Hayat crime syndicate in Idlib — for paign to retake Idlib for the Syrian With some 3 million and accused his opponent, Hillary Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which, example, extorting lorry drivers government and to go after HTS, people in Idlib (many Clinton, of being “trigger happy” while no match for the US mili- — than a transnational terrorist the Russian and Syrian military by advocating a safe-haven zone tary, could inflict many casualties group. Nonetheless, having the forces should desist from attack- of them having fled in part of Syria that would be en- on US personnel. Syrians and Russians take on HTS ing civilians. Whether that works there from other forced by the US military. Getting Although both Syria and Russia may relieve the United States and is another matter altogether. His militarily involved in Idlib sounds are opposed to the HTS and justi- other Western powers from tak- public tweet has not. parts of Syria), a too much like Clinton’s position fy their military campaign as one ing on that job down the road. humanitarian crisis and thus something to avoid. of clearing the area of terrorists, For these reasons, Putin and Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer under Trump’s Trump also has been keen to the potential for a shooting war Assad may calculate that despite in the Pardee School of Global draw down US troops in eastern getting out of control, especially harsh words from Trump, who Studies at Boston University and watch could redound Syria now that the Islamic State in a relatively small area, prob- may be influenced by national a former US State Department against him. (ISIS) is territoriality defeated, ably weighs on Trump’s mind. security adviser John Bolton (an Middle East analyst. June 16, 2019 9 Debate Lebanon

Hate speech cannot pass for Lebanese patriotism

Makram Rabah

ight years after Syria fell into conflict, 12 million people, 75% of them women and chil- dren, remain stranded outside their country, Eoften in dire conditions. With few social and economic prospects and uncertain of when they can return to Syria, these refugees are living a daily nightmare that the outside world has largely forgot- ten about or grown indifferent to. In Lebanon, their plight is es- pecially extreme. There, 1.5 mil- lion Syrian refugees must cope with double the trauma: having suffered under the murderous regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and now subjected to a conniving Lebanese state that peddles xenophobia against them rather than providing them with humanitarian aid. Anti-refugee sentiment in Leb- anon has climbed to new heights. Some Lebanese, convinced that Syrian refugees are harming the Lebanese economy and displac- ing locals, have directly targeted refugees and forced them to leave their camps. This was the case in Deir al-Ahmar, where locals clashed with people in a Shadow of homelessness. A Syrian man gathers his belongings as workers demolish cement block shelters at a refugee camp in the (AFP) nearby Syrian refugee camp, ulti- north-eastern Lebanese town of Arsal, June 10. mately forcing 600 of its inhabit- ants to leave the village. been fostered largely by the refugee affairs was given to a Lebanese workers against them. bloodline distinguishes them The clashes were not totally government, which, instead of pro-Syrian figure while pro-Assad “It is normal to defend Leba- from their fellow men. unprovoked. Syrian refugees putting forward serious solutions factions created an extremely nese workers against any other Further alarming is how Bassil had earlier assaulted Lebanese to the uncertain crisis, has elevat- hostile environment to force foreign worker, whether Syrian, contaminated the public dis- firefighters who they said had ed those who espouse populist refugees to immediately leave Palestinian, French, Saudi, Ira- course. Increasingly, his views fuel arrived late to put out a fire in a rhetoric demonising the refugee Lebanon. nian or American,” he said. “The a climate of unadulterated hatred refugee tent. However, they community. This sinister plan resulted in Lebanese come first.” and bigotry that is masked as reflect a deepening animos- One of the biggest purveyors further hardships for refugees, Bassil’s bigoted remarks Lebanese patriotism. ity towards the Syrian of such hate is Foreign Min- who face red tape that makes unleashed a storm of contro- It is time for the Lebanese to refugee community ister Gebran Bassil, who it more difficult for them to versy. Some ridiculed him for rally against this — not only for the that is driven by the is also the son-in-law register for residency renewals the senseless comments and sake of Syrian refugees but for the Lebanese govern- It is time for the of Lebanese Presi- and permits. They have seen others warned him of how such sake of Lebanon. Taking a moral ment’s response. dent Michel Aoun. some of their camps declared a philosophy might play out for stance to protect Syrian refugees Lebanese to rally Indeed, xeno- Hoping to illegal, allegedly because the use the more than 200,000 Lebanese from Bassil’s hate should be a pre- phobic attitudes against bigotry — not replace his father- of concrete deems them perma- expats working in Saudi Arabia. emptive move all Lebanese should are, lamentably, only for the sake of in-law as the next nent structures, and forcefully A quick examination of some take to protect themselves and growing increas- Syrian refugees but Lebanese presi- removed. of Bassil’s statements on Syrian their children from losing what re- ingly common in for the sake of dent, Bassil has Bassil, happy to see such refugees shows just how wrong — mains of the country’s moral fibre. the country, even Lebanon. repeatedly used the restrictions imposed, doubled and ill-intentioned — he is. Until enough Lebanese speak among those tradi- refugee crisis to build down on his anti-refugee posi- While refugees have strained out against such bigotry, we are tionally supportive popular support with tion, transforming the Diaspora Lebanon’s economy and its left with Bassil’s demagoguery as of the Syrian revolution. a Christian community Energy Conference organised decaying infrastructure, they a shining example of why a once Deir al-Ahmar, where the that is largely disillusioned with by the Foreign Ministry into are hardly the reason for Leba- great nation has declined. recent attack against refugees his alliance with Hezbollah and a platform to lash out at Syr- non’s terrible state of affairs. In took place, is a bastion of the shady government contracts. ian refugees and declare the fact, the responsibility for the Makram Rabah is a lecturer at Christian Lebanese Forces party, Thus, the Deir al-Ahmar at- Lebanese genetically superior, bleak days that await Lebanon the American University of which has been unwavering in tack goes in line with the deal whatever that means. In un- rests squarely on the shoulders Beirut and author of “A Campus its support for the Syrian people that Bassil struck with Lebanese hinged comments and follow-up of Bassil and other officials who at War: Student Politics at against Assad. Prime Minister Saad Hariri in posts on Twitter, Bassil took aim failed to enact meaningful reform the American University This worsening climate has which the ministry of state for at refugees and vowed to protect and still think their supposed of Beirut, 1967-1975.” In his Machiavellian designs, Bassil is using racist discourse

by Bassil, Aoun’s son-in-law. foundations for something even litical current to launch their racist tweeted Bassil. You can’t be more Bassil started by adopting the bigger: extract as many preroga- campaigns against the Syrian refu- racist and chauvinistic than that. slogan of the Christian frustration tives as he could for the position gees, inciting the Lebanese against It is true that Bassil’s racist Adid Nassar and then armed himself with the of the president and then take them and accusing them of drag- discourse has not gone unchal- weapon of defending the interests over the post. ging their feet to return home lenged. It was, indeed, con- of “frustrated” Christians as a re- For his Machiavellian cam- and of all kinds of grievances, demned and mocked. However, ebanese Foreign Min- sult of election laws considered to paign, Bassil found the including terrorism. Bassil what is certain is that it must have ister Gebran Bassil has be unfair to them and preventing issue of the Syrian refu- and his ilk found in the emboldened the aggressors who adopted a worrying them from choosing their repre- gees in Lebanon to be Bassil expects refugees the perfect attacked the Syrian refugees and attitude that is adding sentative at parliament. the weakest link on his Machiavellian scapegoat for all burned their camp, following a chauvinistic and racist The tactic enabled Bassil to im- the Lebanese scene, strategy to lead him the problems of problem that might have been undertones to his sec- pose the electoral law he wanted concentrating vari- straight to the the Lebanese, fabricated between civil defence Ltarianism. so as to ensure for himself a seat at ous contradictions. portraying the personnel from the village of Deir Lebanese presidency, Bassil is trying to take the parliament representing Batroun, The refugees will refugees as an al-Ahmar and refugees in the utmost advantage of his alliance despite that he had failed in 2005 not return to Syria with powers not absolute evil and camp in the vicinity of the same with Hezbollah. Because of the and 2009 to win that seat. while Bashar Assad enjoyed by any a serious threat to village and run by the Caritas As- latter’s urgent need for a Christian Thanks to the presidential com- remains in power other president the Lebanese entity sociation. cover for its Iran-dictated frenzied promise, Bassil got what he had and they will not be before him. and to the unique Bassil expects his Machiavellian policies in Lebanon, the party was wanted and now he has declared able to leave Lebanon in Lebanese formula for strategy to lead him straight to the willing to cooperate with Bassil a racist “Lebanese” war on Syr- huge numbers, to Europe, social cohesion. Lebanese presidency, with powers at times and even turn a blind ian and Palestinian refugees in for example, because of the “We have devoted a con- not enjoyed by any other presi- eye other times to his vile racist Lebanon by appealing to his own growing rejectionist mood cept to our Lebanese identity, dent before him. This is a person discourse. superior Lebanese “genes” and to there, courtesy of the rising right- above any other affiliation, and who sees in his genes something Bassil is blatantly taking ad- the theory of a unique Lebanese wing forces. we have said that it was genetic, that no one before him had seen. vantage of possible compromises genetic type. The refugees, therefore, find since it was the only explanation His tyranny is blinding him to that derive from the presidential It seems that the ferocity of his themselves caught in the jaws of for our similarity and distinction, the reality that is misleading him arrangement placed on Leba- sectarian rhetoric, which enabled a relentless vice, without political for our bearing to live with each and which may shove him into nese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. him to lead the largest Christian cover, neither from Syria where other and our adjustment to each the abyss he deserves, namely his This settlement was imposed parliamentary bloc as well as the even the opposition is ignor- other, for our flexibility and our alliance with Hezbollah, the party by Hezbollah, which prevented largest ministerial bloc, made it ing their plight nor from Arab or unity together and for our ability that did not and will not accept a the election as president of any easy for him to go further, relying international countries. They are to come together and merge on president of the country it cannot other candidate besides its own, on his alliance with Hezbollah and political sitting ducks, likely to be the one hand and for our refusal control. Michel Aoun, founder of the Free the rush to reap the fruits of the subjected to further abuse. to be displaced and seek asylum Patriotic Movement, which is led presidential settlement, to lay the It was easy for Bassil and his po- together on the other hand,” Adid Nassar is a Lebanese writer. 10 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Nechirvan Barzani’s presidential pick draws mixed reactions from Iraqis

Azhar Al-Rubaie KDP legislator Mohammed Shak- er said the PUK had initially agreed to join ranks with the KDP. Erbil “There was an agreement with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to he selection of Nechirvan form a regional government but, at Barzani as president of the last minute before the voting Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional process, they did not vote for Bar- T Government drew mixed zani. It means they did not respect reactions from Iraqis in the coun- this agreement,” said Shaker, who try’s north. also criticised the New Generation During a May 28 session of the Movement for being “reluctant to Iraqi Kurdish parliament, Barzani vote” for Barzani. won 68 votes from the 81 members present in the 111-seat chamber. After his swearing-in The vote was boycotted by major Kurdish opposition parties. ceremony June 10, The post of Kurdistan Regional Nechirvan Barzani Government (KRG) president had reached out to his rivals. been vacant since the resignation of Barzani’s uncle, Masoud Bar- “Nechirvan Barzani has a brief- zani, in November 2017 following a ing on all outstanding issues be- dispute with the Iraqi government tween Baghdad and the Kurdistan over his calling a referendum on region and he will work to settle the independence of Kurdistan. these files, including the file of oil Masoud Barzani had served as KRG exports. Iraq’s constitution gives president since 2005. the region the right to export oil Prior to being named president, but Baghdad government does Nechirvan Barzani was the KRG’s not accept it. Anyway, the central prime minister. That post is now government is cooperating to solve filled by Masrour Barzani — Nechir- the problems,” Shaker said. van’s cousin and Masoud’s son. Some observers said they were Masrour Barzani had previously hopeful Barzani would improve been the KRG security chief. living conditions in Kurdistan as well as relations with the central government. With new leaders in Erbil “I hope that the newly elected and Baghdad, observers president cares more about young said they were optimistic people and improves the economic about possible warming of state for poor families,” said Aisha ties between the two sides. Fareed, a political activist in Erbil. “I am quite optimistic about the The three Barzanis are members new transition. I think it will sus- New hope? Kurdish President Nechirvan Barzani during his inauguration ceremony, June 10. (DPA) of the Kurdistan Democratic Party tain Erbil-Baghdad relations.” (KDP), the Kurdish region’s most Relations between Erbil and powerful party. The parliament Baghdad have been improving Not everyone welcome’s another ence to Masoud Barzani. money goes,” he added. session was boycotted by the Patri- since Adel Abdul-Mahdi became Barzani presidency. “I do not think that Nechirvan The Barzanis are not the only otic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Iraqi prime minister last year. “We stand against the inherit- Barzani is the right person to be family with a heavy political clout other Kurdish opposition parties, Relations between former Prime ance of the power in Kurdistan. the president for Kurdistan region. in Iraqi Kurdistan. The PUK is which allege voting fraud in par- Minister Haider al-Abadi and Ma- Kurdistan’s problems will not be He has previously served as prime dominated by the Talabani family. liamentary elections resulted in soud Barzani were somewhat solved by him, nor will the (re- minister and has failed to address “There is a political conflict be- having more KDP lawmakers in the frosty. gion’s) problems with Baghdad,” people’s needs — like paying the tween the two families (Barzani legislative chamber. With new leaders in Erbil and said Hoshyar Abdullah, a mem- salaries of employees, improving and Talabani) to control the top After his swearing-in ceremo- Baghdad, observers said they were ber of parliament from the Gorran the economic situation or provid- political positions in KRG,” said ny June 10, Nechirvan Barzani optimistic about possible warming Movement. ing equal distribution of wealth,” Jalal Hasan Mistaffa, a lecturer of reached out to his rivals. “I have of ties between the two sides. “I “I am just asking why the prob- said Abdullah. political science at the University taken an oath to protect the unity, believe that Nechirvan is the right lems of the region have not been “The oil export is controlled by of Sulaimani. rights and interests of the people of person to pave the way to (restor- resolved before, although the rul- the Kurdistan Democratic Party Kurdistan and will do so to the best ing ties with) Baghdad,” said Ako ing was by a member of the Barza- with absence of transparency in Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance of my ability,” he said on Twitter. Kaka, a researcher in Kirkuk. ni family,” said Abdullah, in a refer- how they export it and where the journalist in Iraq. Viewpoint Abadi’s resignation reveals Iran’s plan to control Dawa Party

ormer Iraqi Prime the rules of responsibility and that and is calling on others to agencies stay at Najm’s house Minister Haider readiness.” abide by it. when they visit Baghdad. al-Abadi, head of Abadi called for a “critical” If Abadi’s intention was to It is no secret that the Iranian Ali al-Amin al-Nasr Coalition in review and for the “injecting of make some kind of gain, he could leadership recognises that the the Iraqi parliament, new blood at all levels” of the have done it when he was prime Dawa Party, which controls key resigned from his lead- party, “especially at the leader- minister. Everybody knows how positions in the Iraqi state, Fership posts at the Dawa Party ship level.” he was pressured to leave the constitutes the best choice and called for a review and As soon as Abadi announced Dawa Party so he could claim a through which it could deeply renewal of the party structure. his resignation from the leader- second term as prime minister infiltrate and control the Iraqi He nevertheless remained a ship posts, Maliki’s media circles but he refused. system of government, espe- member of the party. and those of Iran’s allies ques- Since when has holding on to cially now that the opportunities The al-Nasr Coalition controls tioned the intention of the one’s office at all costs become a of relying on the Popular 42 seats of the 329 seats in the resignation and framed it in a sign of dignity while giving it up Mobilisation Forces (PMF) Iraqi parliament. Abadi also conspiracy context with links to for the sake of the interests and militias are shrinking. heads the political bureau of the the US-Iranian tug of war. unity of the Dawa and of its An Iraqi source said: “Iran has Dawa Party, with Nuri al-Maliki, A close collaborator of Maliki prestige and strength has become convinced that control another former prime minister, interpreted Abadi’s resignation become a sin? through the PMF is not guaran- serving as secretary-general. as “an introduction to the Iran sees the Dawa Party as an teed because of the poor In a letter addressed to the dismissal of Prime Minister Adel important historical Islamic organisation and multiple party, Abadi said: “On the eve of Abdul-Mahdi and the appoint- movement to be used in times of loyalties inside the PMF as well the Dawa Party congress, I find ment of Haider al-Abadi in his need. It has been reported that as the general trend that is myself obligated to address you place, provided the latter the new Iranian approach is to pushing for the reduction of its out of my legitimate and patri- announces his resignation from remove the party leadership and role under internal and external otic duties. The ‘Dawa’ is a the Dawa Party. His withdrawal bring in new figures recruited by pressures.” heritage, a philosophy, action, from his positions inside the Iranian intelligence to control The Dawa Party denied the sacrifice and large goals. It party is just the beginning of the party. existence of US intervention but requires self-denial, solidarity this step in preparation for his One of the most prominent of pointed out that the US Embassy and ongoing innovation to final resignation from the these figures is Tarek Najm, a in Iraq is focused on monitoring continue its march to lead the party.” person of mystery who had been what goes on in Iraq with the major transformations in our A source close to Abadi away from the Dawa Party for sword of sanctions against Iran country.” stressed that it’s been nearly a years but who suddenly emerged in hand, a sword that many Iraqi Iran sees the Dawa He explained that “there are year since Abadi has been talking as a leading figure by presiding forces fear because they realise no infallible socio-political about his resignation within the over Maliki’s office when the that the Iranian card is heading Party as an important experiments and the important Dawa Party. The timing of his latter was prime minister. for more decline in Iraq and is no historical Islamic thing is to review and correct statements is a message to Iranian services strengthened longer adequate as a source of and, most important, to persist members of the party leadership their relationship with Najm to protection. movement to be used with awareness, planning and to serve the party’s platform and the point that many top officers in times of need. commitment in accordance with Abadi himself is committed to of the Iranian intelligence Ali al-Amin is a Lebanese writer. June 16, 2019 11 News & Analysis Jordan Syrian refugees in Jordan unlikely to return home anytime soon

Roufan Nahhas them,” journalist Ziad Momani said. A UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) survey of 3,400 Amman Syrian refugees in November indi- cated that 66% of respondents said total of 16,700 Syrian refu- they would return home one day, gees, out of 671,000 reg- 8% said that they planned to return istered with the United in the next 12 months and 24% said A Nations, have left Jordan, they did not plan to return at all. heading voluntarily to Syria since “Of course, we understand the the reopening of the Jaber-Nasib reason why most of them don’t crossing from last October and this want to return because, since the April, the UN High Commissioner start of the crisis, many managed for Refugees said. to build their own life here and Jordan is among countries most whether at refugee camps or out- affected by the Syrian crisis and side the camps. Those who man- one that has been struggling with aged to open businesses which are economic challenges as the result successful and competing with Fears and uncertainties. Syrian refugees sit at the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan. (Reuters) of hosting more than 1.3 million Jordanian businesses will never go Syrians, Jordanian officials said. back,” Momani said. cause of security and stability con- OK with any decision they make here seeking a new life and a new Fares Braizat, chairman of NAMA cerns. to return home at least not now,” beginning,” he added. Strategic Intelligence Solutions, a Braizat said Jordan, as a country, Momani said. “Despite collective UNHCR statistics in February UNHCR statistics in research, polling and consultancy would benefit from stability in Syria efforts and joint decision by refu- stated that the number of refugees February stated that the firm, said Jordan has much to offer for economic and trade reasons. gees to return, there are many who registered reached 671,579, with number of refugees refugees. Last October, Jordanians pinned established themselves well here 48% children and approximately registered reached 671,579, “Refugees have better opportuni- their hopes on the reopening of the and do not think of going back no 125,000 children were born in Jor- with 48% children and ties in Jordan due to the aid provid- Jaber-Nasib crossing after a 3-year matter what.” dan; 83% of the refugees lived in approximately 125,000 ed by the UNHCR and other relief closure because of the Syrian war. In December, the Jaber-Nasib hosting societies and 17% lived in children were born in agencies and also job opportunities This important crossing used to crossing marked the first organ- refugee camps. Jordan. that they can find in any field,” he channel billions of dollars of trade ised return of Syrian refugees from Around 78,500 were in Zaatari said. for countries across the region. The Jordan with around 100 refugees Camp, 41,000 in Azraq Camp and Economists said the return of re- “Meanwhile, the elements that opening was greatly welcomed by and their families entering Syria 7,000 in Emirati Camp. lations between Syria and Jordan will allow them to return are very Jordan and Syria, which reported but half of them seemed to have a Last December, Jordan an- contributed to providing a safe al- limited. The Syrian government billions of dollars in lost income change of heart and only 47 rode nounced that the number of regis- ternative for refugees who decided should first issue public amnesty to from trade with Europe and the the bus across. tered refugees who returned to Syr- to voluntarily leave Jordan. all refugees who are wanted and re- Gulf region because of the crossing “Who can blame them? Most of ia reached 5,703 while those who do “Syrian refugees are still sceptical turn to them their properties taken closure. them do not know how things are not carry a refugee status and went and fear of the return home while by others.” “There is no doubt that the reo- there and what is waiting for them. back totalled 28,774. others believe that they have noth- A 2018 NAMA study said more pening of the crossing played a big It is true that since the crisis started ing there for them or their family than half of the Syrian refugees in role in somehow returning things many returned and came back sev- Roufan Nahhas is a journalist and a new start will be very hard for Jordan will not return to Syria be- to normal but still refugees are not eral times but still many are still based in Jordan. Viewpoint Jordanian king marks 20 years in power with continued balancing acts

ordanian King Abdullah II Saddam. carried out by Jordanian nation- balancing act, Jordan is likely to recently marked the 20th The post-2003 Iraqi rulers were als. send a low-level delegation while Mamoon anniversary of his suspicious of what they saw was a Jordan’s economic problems reiterating its insistence on a two- Alabbasi accession to the throne in “Saddam-friendly” Jordan and are increasing pressure on King state solution to the Israeli-Pales- what appears to be a looked eastward — towards Iran Abdullah. Jordan has faced a tinian conflict. continuation of a two- — for neighbourly ties. series of anti-government mass Saudi Arabia has been a Jdecade policy of balancing acts in Despite a fluctuating relation- protests in the past year. Some financial backer of Jordan but ship between Baghdad and demonstrators openly criticised Riyadh is not happy with some of the face of national and regional challenges. Amman, King Abdullah did not the king, a rarity that demon- Amman’s policies towards King Abdullah’s reign began give up seeking to maintain strates the frustration of the countries such as Qatar and Iran June 9, 1999. He inherited his economic ties with Iraq. In the Jordanian street. or even towards the Jordanian father’s good ties with Saddam past two years, Iraq has expressed King Abdullah, who has the affiliate of the Muslim Brother- Hussein’s Iraq, which had been its readiness to be more open to final say in all key policies of the hood. under UN sanctions since its inva- its Arab neighbours and Jordan is state, has often sought to defuse sion of Kuwait in 1990. keen to have its share of the pie. tensions by reshuffling the Jordan was practically Iraq’s The Syrian uprising against the cabinet or firing the prime Jordan’s key allies are only gateway to the outside Assad regime in 2011 posed minister. However, there will not as accommodating world, which benefited Amman challenges for Jordan. Loss of come a time when that formula economically. That changed trade with Damascus and the will cease to work. to King Abdullah as following the 2003 US-led influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan has sought to get past its before. invasion of Iraq, which toppled Jordan affected the country economic troubles by borrowing economically. Amman sought to money from the International The Jordanian government make up for its losses by asking Monetary Fund and the World — and court — say the Brother- for international aid but that Bank but such loans come with hood-affiliated Islamic Action wasn’t always forthcoming. conditions unacceptable to many Front, whose Al Islah bloc is the The brutality of the Assad Jordanians. Managing public largest opposition group in the regime ensured that Syrian discontent with more borrowing parliament, is not related to the refugees would not be going back is another balancing act that Jordan’s old Muslim Brother- home anytime soon, despite their Jordan must maintain. hood, which was licensed in 1946 poor living conditions in Jordan. Jordan’s key allies are not as and dissolved in 1953. Political relations with Damas- accommodating to King Abdullah The relationship between the cus since 2011 have fluctuated. as before. The United States, Jordanian monarchy and the Jordan initially backed the Syrian under the Trump administration, Muslim Brotherhood has often rebels, reportedly because of is pressing Amman to back its fluctuated and that trend appears pressure from its Gulf backers plans for a yet-unveiled peace to continue with King Abdullah. and the United States, but the deal between Israelis and As long as the Brotherhood is not animosity between Amman and Palestinians. strong enough (or willing) to Damascus was never full blown. Washington also expects threaten his reign, he will likely There were reports of improve- Amman to back US decisions tolerate them. ment of ties between the two recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s King Abdullah knows Saudi sides as early as 2017. capital and cutting funding to the Arabia will likely remain an ally Jordan often likes to point UN agency that is responsible for of Jordan, despite Amman’s towards the Syrian border when aiding Palestinian refugees. relations with Doha and Tehran, warning about threats of the The US measures are disastrous because all sides realise that Islamic State but the country is for Jordan politically and eco- instability in Jordan would not be itself no stranger to radical nomically but Amman found confined to Jordanian borders. Constant challenges. Jordanian King Abdullah II (2nd-R) and groups. The worst terror attacks itself unable to refuse an invita- Crown Prince Hussein (3rd-R) view historical battle dress as they targeting Jordan recently — tion to attend a workshop on the Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy visit the Martyrs’ Memorial museum in Amman, June 10. including the attack that killed 14 Palestinian economy at the end of Managing Editor and Online (Jordanian Royal Palace) people in Karak in 2016 — were June in Bahrain. As part of its Editor of The Arab Weekly. 12 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis Maghreb Tunisian politics shaken by new poll results, leftist split

Lamine Ghanmi in May to 8.6% in June. Support for Nidaa Tounes, founded by Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi, was Tunis down from 11.1% to 5% since May. Another surprise in the poll was unisia’s political class was the strong performance of the Free thrown into unprecedented Destourian Party (PDL), led by law- turmoil following the re- yer Abir Moussi, and which received T lease of opinion poll results the support of 11.3% of respondents. described by commentators as an Moussi, who advocated the legal “earthquake.” The poll indicated exclusion of Islamists, said growing that voters were largely dissatisfied interest in the PDL was due to Tuni- with Tunisia’s main political par- sians’ disillusionment with the polit- ties, including the Islamist Ennahda ical establishment that had failed to Movement. address the country’s economic and The poll, conducted by the Sig- social crisis. ma Conseil agency and published The PDL’s strong showing prompt- June 12 by Le Maghreb newspaper, ed calls from rivals to legally exclude showed Ennahda’s favourability any candidate who engages in an rating declining from 18% in May to “apology of the policies of the dic- 16.8% in June. It was the first time tatorship.” Moussi, a former senior since early 2011 that Ennahda had official of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s fallen so sharply in a poll. ruling party, denies the 2011 uprising However, analysts said Ennahda’s that toppled his regime was a revolu- status as an “ideological party with tion. a religious base” could shield it from The leftist Popular Front and the a growing backlash against major other opposition Democratic Cur- political parties. They said it was rent party registered 5.8% and 3.4% uncertain whether the party’s core support, respectively, compared to Same old squabbles. Tunisian leader of the Popular Front and general secretary of the Workers’ Party base would stand at 15% or 10% by 5.5% and 10.1%, respectively, the Hamma Hammami (C) attends a meeting in Tunis. (AFP) the time of the election late this year. month before, the poll showed. The June poll showed Ennahda The poll results highlighted the ef- trailing a new political entity — fect of the Popular Front’s internal its officials, Mongi Rahoui, would be “Hammami failed to provide the secret political apparatus to further known only as the “Karoui Party” feuding on its support. The party is the Popular Front’s candidate. Front with good political governance its aims. — established by television station a coalition of Marxist and pan-Arab The dispute has the two camps structures to amplify its support. We The infighting is likely to derail owner Nabil Karoui. The Sigma Con- nationalist parties united by their squabbling over who controls the have a huge potential for support the Popular Front coalition’s efforts seil data indicated the Karoui Party opposition to Islamists. It recently Popular Front’s political brand and but it has gone untapped because of to isolate Ennahda. would win 29.8% of the vote in par- plunged into an intense fight over raised questions about their influ- Hammami.” Popular Front lawyers represent- liamentary elections, compared to direction and leadership of the coali- ence going into the election season. Jilani Hammami, a Front parlia- ing Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, 16.8% for Ennahda. tion. “The conflict is an old one within ment member who backs Hamma another assassinated coalition lead- Karoui, who owns the influential Nine members of the coalition’s the Front,” said Rahoui, arguing that Hammami, said the crisis had been er, claimed in court documents that Nessma media channel and is on 15-member parliamentary bloc re- Hammami’s leadership ambitions staged by Rahoui and his allies to Ennahda developed a “secret organ- friendly terms with Islamist leaders, signed May 28 over disagreements have prevented the Popular Front cover “hidden political choices” isation” to cement its covert domi- is widely popular because of his tel- on whether to align with liberal forc- from growing. “It is likely that the is- aimed at siding with liberal parties. nance of Tunisia’s political scene. evision programmes and direct out- es against Islamists. sue of the candidacy has intensified The Popular Front was instrumen- Ennahda emphatically denied that reach to the poor. His ascendancy Infighting in the Popular Front the crisis and brought it to the open.” tal in forging an alliance of anti-Is- it engaged in political activity out- prompted other politicians to seek broke out in May when Hamma “If I were in his (Hammami’s) lamist forces in 2013 that convinced side the framework of the law. Caid a ban of the candidacies of people Hammami, general secretary of the position,” Rahoui added, “I would Ennahda party to quit the govern- Essebsi proposed that the National who control any media outlet. Workers’ Party, was selected the have criss-crossed the country to ment. Security Council investigate the al- Despite the advantage of incum- coalition’s candidate for presidential turn many of the estimated 250,000 The assassination of Popular Front legations against Ennahda. bency, Tunisian Prime Minister elections late this year. The move Front sympathisers into members of leader Chokri Belaid in 2013 fuelled Youssef Chahed saw support for his irked the Democratic Patriots’ Uni- the Front to make it a political force mistrust of Ennahda, which is ac- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly party, Tahya Tounes, fall from 16.5% fied Party, which had hoped one of to reckon with. cused by the left of having used a correspondent in Tunis. Viewpoint In hollowed-out Algeria there is no one to negotiate a transition ince the demonstrations Bouteflika forced senior army into action with the aim of setting society leaders that would be started in Algeria four officers to show allegiance to him, one group of Algerians against competent, experienced and months ago, it has been compromising the integrity of the another. So far they have failed. honest but they have resisted Francis Ghilès noted that the popular army, which since independence The few dozen senior officers doing so. movement suffered from had cherished its autonomy. for whom Gaid Salah acts as a Presidential elections set for the “Arab spring’s” fatal This he did by appointing spokesman, represent a “deep early July have been postponed Sflaw: the absence of leadership. General Ahmed Gaid Salah as chief state” that is entrenched and has until no one knows when. Only The youth-dominated protests are of staff in 2004, over and above no intention of giving in to the two little-known candidates put a movement without formal officers whose claims to advance- demands for democracy that their name forward for the organisation, no recognisable ment were superior to the man millions of men and women have now-cancelled poll, which would representatives. who is still their boss and the been clamouring for every Friday. have made any attempt to have There is nobody to take their spokesman for the few dozen These officers understand that elections ridiculous. demands to the regime and senior officers who run the many of those beneath them in Algeria’s revolt is like none negotiate a transition to a more country. the 500,000-strong army do not other in the Arab world. The democratic system or manage the This weakening of the army’s share their views. They are trying Algerian military, as well as the protesters’ expectations of the integrity has been repeatedly to keep the unity of the army police and gendarmerie, have kept nature of such a transition. denounced by none other than the intact but that might prove their truncheons sheathed and The experience of 2011-12 former reformist Prime Minister difficult if the crisis drags on. know that, were they to resort to suggested two paths, neither of Mouloud Hamrouche, who The Algerian People’s National violence, their use of force would them ending in satisfaction for the himself holds the rank of colonel. Armed Forces sees itself as having play out in full view of the world, protesters. One path leads to The result of Bouteflika’s rule is inherited the historical and unlike during the civil war of the violence; the other to the hijack- that the leadership of Algeria revolutionary legitimacy of the 1990s, which played out behind ing of the uprisings by groups that resembles a Berber djemaa National Liberation Army. It faces closed doors. have what the protesters lack, without the aguellid, the a situation in which 43 million Such an outcome would destroy leadership and organisation. respected elder who was tradi- Algerians are clamouring for the their historical legitimacy and the In Algeria, neither has hap- tionally the final referee. Nobody status of citizens — they no longer respect the military institution — pened, wrong footing observers knows where power rests, with want to remain subjects. if not its leaders — enjoys among who do not really know, let alone whom and for how long. The protest movement and the people. No group has hijacked understand, the country’s history. Such a structure may help those those who play a role in its the revolt and young people It should be noted that any who are in power in Algeria keep it leadership know that, were one seemed as mobilised as ever. intermediary social and institu- but it does not allow them to leaders to emerge from it, the Whatever the outcome of this tional body in Algerian society negotiate anything and certainly deep state would attempt to slow-motion revolt, one can was hollowed out during the 20 not with the protesters. co-opt or destroy that person. already draw the conclusion that, years of Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s The structure has been turned They reckon that unless and until in North Africa at least, men and presidency. This includes trade inside out of late as Gaid Salah Gaid Salah agrees to a genuine women are fully conversant with unions, the employers’ federa- ordered the arrest of dozens of government of transition, one the meaning of democracy and The revolt explodes tion, universities, professional businessmen who were cronies of whose members would have the insist on enjoying their rights the myth beloved by and lawyers’ groups, the media Bouteflika and others who were political credentials and capacity which include freedom of and associations involved in any not, on allegations of corruption; to deliver free and fair elections, expression, to own property and many in the West and number of social or cultural of former ministers and prime there is little point in coming into freedom from fear. not a few elsewhere, activities. misters, such as Ahmed Ouyahia the open. The revolt explodes the myth The national assembly and the and Abdelmalek Sellal; of the two The interim president and prime beloved by many in the West and that being Arab, diplomatic corps had been obliged last heads of security Mediene and minister are Bouteflika straw men not a few elsewhere, that being Berber or Muslim to submit to the relentless cult of Athmane Tartag, not the mention and most of the ministers are Arab, Berber or Muslim disquali- disqualifies men and personality that turned Bouteflika the leader of the Communist incompetent. All are utterly fies men and women from aspiring into a miniature third-rate copy of Party, Louisa Hanoune. Other rejected by the millions of to the same universal human women from aspiring Joseph Stalin or Mao Zedong. hierarchs have lost their jobs and Algerians who march every rights as every other human being. to the same universal Bouteflika curtailed the powers seen their passports confiscated. weekend. It would be easy for of the powerful security services Despite being under lock and those who hold de facto power in Francis Ghilès is an associate human rights as every and dismissed its all-powerful key, the two former heads of Algeria to appoint a government fellow at the Barcelona Centre for other human being. chief, Mohamed Mediene in 2016. security have put their networks of former political and civil International Affairs. June 16, 2019 13 Debate Palestine Israel

US peace deal’s outcome foreshadowed by talk of West Bank annexation

Kamel Hawwash

ays before the Manama workshop, planned to introduce the economic part of US President Donald Trump’s “Deal of the DCentury,” David Friedman, US ambassador to Israel and long- standing supporter of the illegal settlement enterprise, opened the door for US acceptance of Israeli annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank. In an interview published June 8 in the New York Times, Fried- man said: “Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.” Friedman claimed the Obama administration’s decision not to veto UN Security Council Resolution 2334 regarding Israeli settlements had given credence to Palestinian claims “that the entire West Bank and East Jerusalem belong to them.” To the contrary, “certainly Israel’s entitled to retain some portion of it,” he said, referring to the West Bank. This is contrary to what he said when testifying to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his confirmation hearing in 2017. He was asked whether he would support or whether he Heavy bias. A 2018 file picture shows White House senior adviser Jared Kushner (R) speaking with US Ambassador to Israel David would advocate for Israeli Friedman upon Kushner’s arrival at the Ben Gurion Airport, Israel. (Reuters) annexation of the West Bank or land in the West Bank, his answer was clear: “I will not.” before we left our troops there,” Following Friedman’s com- declined to attend what they see workshop, the Palestinian The Palestinians were incensed “having boots on the ground is ments, the Palestinian Authority as a set-up to end their cause for strategy has turned to hoping by his recent comments. Pales- not antithetical to peace.” said it would consider filing a economic incentives. Their that those attending would tine Liberation Organisation Friedman’s comments follow complaint at the International slogan has been “Palestine is emphasise their belief in the (PLO) Secretary-General Saeb similarly provocative ones by Criminal Court (ICC) against not for sale.” two-state solution as the core of a Erekat claimed that Friedman’s Trump’s special adviser Jared the US ambassador to Israel The call by Palestinian political solution based on the remarks proved the Trump’s Kushner, who claimed the for saying Israel has the President Mahmoud 1967 border with East Jerusalem administration was heavily Palestinians were incapable of right to annex “some” Abbas for Arab as a shared capital, thus directing biased in favour of Israel and that governing themselves and of the West Bank. Despite their countries to boycott the economic discussions to help the Palestinians were justified in repeated trolling of Palestinian Whether the apparent weakness, the Manama facilitate that goal, rather than boycotting the “Peace to Prosper- leaders by Trump’s special Palestinian the Palestinians workshop has simply promising to improve the ity” workshop in Bahrain. representative for international Authority follows hold the trump fallen on deaf Palestinians’ economic situation. Friedman’s comments did not negotiations, Jason Greenblatt. through with its card, that of their ears. Saudi Despite their apparent weak- stop at acquiescence to the Having broken off contact with threat and needed signature to Arabia, the United ness, the Palestinians hold the annexation of parts of the West the Americans after Trump’s whether the ICC any deal, economic Arab Emirates, trump card, that of their needed Bank. Asked whether the plan recognition of Jerusalem as would take any Qatar, Egypt, signature to any deal, economic envisions a Palestinian state, he Israel’s capital and his cutting US action are doubtful. or political. Morocco and Jordan or political. The indications are said: “What’s a state?” funding for the UN Relief and However, the Palestin- accepted invitations that the “Deal of the Century” is He claimed Israel retaining Works Agency for Palestine ians are short of avenues to attend the workshop. unlikely to secure that signature security control over the whole Refugees in the Near East and the they can pursue to achieve It is not clear what level of and therefore the Manama of historic Palestine should not Palestinian Authority and the their legitimate rights. representation Arab countries workshop is unlikely to bring be an impediment. He argued: closure of the PLO office in The United States has been will send. It is also expected that peace any nearer. Just as US troops are stationed in Washington, relations between working overtime to entice an Israeli delegation would be Germany, Japan and the Korean the two sides are at the lowest ebb Palestinian businessmen to the attending. Kamel Hawwash is a British- Peninsula, “places where we they have probably been since Manama event but the Palestin- Having failed to fashion a based Palestinian university were at war with that nation contact was first established. ians have almost unanimously widespread boycott of the professor and writer. Twitter spats replace Mideast peace talks

the other. in April: “Basically, you’re propagandists to prevent them not attacking the Palestinian side Examples of this digital saying: Give us the deal we from gaining access to my themselves, Israeli officials diplomatic offensive are hard to demand or no deal. That’s account & using it to spread their would often express support to Yousef Alhelou miss. consistent with Palestinian prior distortions & lies. I will not their American counterparts in In February, Saeb Erekat, the attempts. How has that worked expose my interlocutors & the online spats with Palestin- he chances that US Palestinian Authority’s chief out for Palestinians? Do you want friends to their venom,” she ians. President Donald peace negotiator, tweeted: “The to lead your people to opportu- tweeted in April. Israeli Deputy Defence Minis- Trump will be able to US so-called peace team not only nity & prosperity or just keep Ashrawi criticised the US- ter Eli Ben-Dahan was vocal in broker a peace deal added to the separation of Gaza saying the same tired lines over & sponsored conference on the his support for Trump’s decision between the Palestin- from the West Bank but has over again?” Palestinian economy, scheduled to cut funding to the Palestinians ians and Israelis destroyed any chance of peace Shtayyeh replied: “Any for late June in Bahrain. Palestin- and the UN agency for Palestin- Tappear dimmer by the day. between Palestinians and political initiative that does ian officials are boycotting the ian refugees. “Finally, the US Trump, however, does seem to be Israelis.” not call for ending Israeli conference because they accuse President tells the Palestinians having another kind of influence Jason Greenblatt, occupation and establish- the United States of seeking to the truth. These Arabs have on all the parties involved: Trump’s Middle East ing an independent impose its policies, which the cheated the world for years. They Twitter spats. envoy, responded by and sovereign Palestinians say favour Israel. took money from donor coun- US, Israeli and Palestinian tweeting: “Saeb: I As long as American Palestinian state “So #JaredKushner disclosed to tries and instead of building a officials appear to be following saw your many and Israeli officials with Jerusalem as Al-Quds newspaper that Jordan, state, the leaders lined their own Trump’s lead on how to behave tweets today. turn their backs on its capital on the Egypt & Morocco will be attend- pockets,” he tweeted last year. on Twitter: Instead of being Your fears/ any meaningful borders of 1967 ing the Bahrain ‘workshop’ & that Such a high volume of Twitter involved in secret peace talks, emotions show negotiation for peace, with settling the their official declaration will be spats among US, Israeli and they are engaged in open public — that won’t help war in the refugees cause is forthcoming! Strange spokesman Palestinian officials was unheard relations warfare. Palestinians. I Twittersphere will not acceptable to indeed,” she tweeted on June 11. of before Trump’s presidency. The Palestinian leadership don’t agree w/ your continue. the Palestinians.” Other Palestinian officials Twitter diplomacy has become severed ties with Washington assertions & you Hanan Ashrawi, a active on Twitter include the only means of communica- after Trump’s December 2017 have offered no member of the Ambassador to the United tion. It’s not known for how long announcement recognising realistic solutions. Time Palestine Liberation Kingdom Husam Zomlot, it’s going to last but as long as Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and to get serious & use your Organisation Executive Palestinian president’s spokes- American and Israeli officials moving the US Embassy from Tel intellect. Palestinians deserve Committee, is one of the most man Nabil Abu Rudeineh and turn their backs on any meaning- Aviv to Jerusalem. Since then, it. My door is open — don’t waste active Palestinian officials on former Gaza Health Minister ful negotiation for peace, war in Twitter has been the main more time.” Twitter. This has exposed her to Basem Naim, the only Hamas the Twittersphere will continue. communication channel between Greenblatt also took aim at attacks from pro-Israel trolls. official tweeting in English. US and Israeli officials from one Palestinian Prime Minister “Once again: I have blocked & Israeli officials have not stood Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian side and Palestinian officials on Mohammad Shtayyeh, tweeting will continue to block Israeli idly by on Twitter. When they’re journalist living in London. 14 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Turkey’s goal to become major arms manufacturer is complicating row with US Thomas Seibert al Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said US worries about the Russian system were at Istanbul the core of the dispute. “The US has repeatedly urged strategic goal by Turkey Turkey to cancel its S-400 order to become a major arms due to concerns over Russian ac- manufacturer is a compli- cess to the system’s radar and par- A cating factor in the coun- ticularly its performance against try’s row with the United States Turkish and allied F-35 aircraft,” over a missile defence system. the West’s most advanced fighter Washington told Turkey it would jet, Efstathiou and Waldwyn wrote cut off Ankara’s purchase of F-35 in response to questions. The Unit- fighter jets if the Turkish govern- ed States has suspended F-35 train- ment buys the Russian S-400 mis- ing for Turkish pilots in a warning sile defence system, ratcheting up to Erdogan’s government. what has been a lengthy dispute Turkish officials dispute Wash- between the two NATO allies. ington’s arguments against the Russia said it plans to deliver the S-400. Ankara is also irked by S-400 to Turkey in July. If Ankara Washington’s refusal to grant tech- accepts delivery, that would trig- nology transfer to Turkey as part of ger US sanctions that could pro- a Patriot system purchase. Turkey long Turkey’s economic recession says Russia has agreed to transfer and prompt a re-evaluation of its technology. 67-year membership of NATO. Tur- Erdogan’s government regards key said a US House of Representa- Turkey as a rising regional power tives’ resolution that condemned pursuing its own strategic inter- the S-400 purchase and urged ests that can differ from those of sanctions was threatening. its partners. Gaining independ- Turkish President Recep Tayyip ence in military matters is an im- Erdogan said Turkey will not re- portant factor in implementing visit the decision to buy two S-400 that world view. batteries for a total of $2.5 billion. “We have three fundamental Turkey said it could buy the US Pa- criteria,” Erdogan’s spokesman triot system as well if the United and foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Lofty ambitions. Turkish Air Force jet fighters escort the plane of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as States substantially improves its Kalin said earlier this year about he arrives at the new airport in Istanbul, last September. (AP) offer to Ankara. the purchase of a missile defence system. “One is price, the second is delivery date and the third is ish Vice-President Fuat Oktay said said in a report released last De- Erdogan’s government goal by 2023 seems unrealistic,” Ef- technology transfer and co-pro- in March. He said Turkey was in- cember that arms sales of Turkish stathiou and Waldwyn said. regards Turkey as a rising duction.” volved in 600 defence projects. companies rose 24% in 2017. Turkey’s economic crisis and regional power pursuing its It is unknown how much tech- Ankara has made serious pro- “This significant increase re- problems in relations with the own strategic interests that nology transfer Russia has prom- gress as an arms exporter. Last flects Turkey’s ambitions to de- United States and European coun- can differ from those of its ised. year, Turkey agreed to deliver Atak velop its arms industry to fulfil its tries are additional complications. partners. “Because of this, it is unclear combat helicopters to Pakistan and growing demand for weapons and “Turkey’s economic downturn how much Turkey will be able to the Philippines. In January, private become less dependent on foreign and its strained relations with al- “Turkey has already bought use the S-400 procurement in the company Baykar Makina said it suppliers,” Pieter Wezeman, senior lies may make it increasingly dif- [the] S-400 defence systems. It is development of any future indig- would deliver six military drones researcher with SIPRI’s Arms and ficult to obtain and afford crucial a done deal. I hope these systems enous systems,” Efstathiou and to Ukraine. Two months later, Qa- Military Expenditure Programme, foreign subsystems to equip its will be delivered to our country Waldwyn wrote. “Russia has long tar signed a deal to buy up to 100 said in a statement. platforms and those it is trying to next month,” Erdogan said. sought to bolster its defence indus- Turkey-made Altay battle tanks. SIPRI’s ranking for 2017 listed export. The emigration of skilled Erdogan said he wanted to talk try through exports and has a long The IISS said Turkey sold hun- Turkish companies Aselsan and industry workers is also likely to about the issue on the phone with history of transferring technology dreds of Kirpi patrol vehicles to Turkish Aerospace Industries in have a negative effect,” Efstathiou US officials before he meets with and even production or licence as- Tunisia and Turkmenistan and the top 100 world arms-producing and Waldwyn pointed out. US President Donald Trump on the sembly as part of sales.” sent Cobra armoured personnel and military service companies. “Nevertheless, Ankara has made sidelines of the Group of 20 sum- Turkey, once dependent on its carriers to Bahrain, Bangladesh, Turkey plans to boost annual de- significant progress and those mit in Japan June 28-29. Western partners for weapons, is Mauritania and Rwanda. fence exports to $25 billion by 2023 signed over the past 12 months re- Yvonni-Stefania Efstathiou and meeting 65% of its defence needs The Stockholm International from the current amount of around flect the growing sophistication of Tom Waldwyn, of the Internation- through its own industry, Turk- Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) $2 billion. “Achieving its daunting the Turkish defence industry.”

Viewpoint Turkey at strategic crossroads after US F-35 ultimatum

Sabahat Khan atrick Shanahan, acting joint technical committee with given its extensive inventory of and greater technology transfer. US defence secretary, American counterparts to allay US US-manufactured systems. However, Turkey did not recently wrote to his concerns over the purchase have Turkey-US relations have estimate that the S-400 would Turkish counterpart not been entertained in Washing- steadily deteriorated over the come at the cost of the F-35 and and outlined an ton. past few years as mistrust has potential restrictions on defence ultimatum for Ankara The United States is convinced grown, driven by disagreements cooperation with the United Pregarding its purchase of the that Turkey’s S-400 purchase across a range of issues but States. Turkey has time to change Russian S-400 missile defence could enable Russia to closely Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 course but there are few indica- system. observe the F-35 and work out effectively brought ties between tions that it intends to. Shanahan’s letter stated that how to track the stealth aircraft, the NATO allies to a strategic Russia could not only benefit Turkey would be barred from expected to form the backbone of crossroads. from growing divergences in participating in an annual F-35 US air power for the next two As a consequence of Turkey Turkish-US strategic ties but also event and that Turkish Air Force decades. receiving the S-400 over the next from additional future sales of the pilots training on F-35 aircraft in Turkey, which has one of the few months, the future of its S-400 or even the S-500 systems the United States would be asked largest fleets of the US-built F-16 defence strategy could now be set as well as a massive next-genera- to leave by July 31. aircraft, was planning to buy at for a dramatic redirection. tion fighter aircraft programme. Reports stated that Turkey’s least 120 F-35s — a number that Turkey has a separate coopera- Unsurprisingly, with Moscow’s F-35 pilots have had their training was likely to grow. Turkey tion programme with the United blessings, major Russian defence suspended and it seems increas- produces around 7% of the parts Kingdom’s BAE Systems for its contractors are moving quickly to ingly unlikely that Turkey’s first for the F-35, a US-led programme TF-X air superiority fighter but assure Turkish officials of their batch of F-35 aircraft will be bringing together nine partner analysts said Turkey would be readiness to widen the scope of allowed to be flown to the country nations. likely to turn to Russia for a closer defence cooperation and trade. this year as scheduled. As a result, in addition to being replacement to the F-35. Yet, if Turkey was to do so, The past few months have seen denied the world’s most advanced In April, Turkish Foreign attaching premiums on what it senior US military leaders multirole stealth fighter, Turkish Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu sees as its strategic independence recommending moves to the US defence industries stand to lose suggested that, if the United to break off with the United Senate Armed Services Commit- billions of dollars in revenue, jobs States was to cancel its participa- States, the road ahead would If Turkey was to do so, tee that would block Turkish pilot and access to advanced technical tion in the F-35 programme, bring unpredictable risks and attaching premiums training. Amid wider calls for the assistance. Ankara could be forced to look challenges. Not least, as Shana- on what it sees as its sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey be Shanahan’s letter suggested elsewhere — including at Russia’s han alluded to, “over-depend- cancelled altogether, some US that Turkey may also face Su-57 next-generation stealth ence” on a resurgent Russia that strategic legislators publicly warned sanctions under the Countering fighter. continues to be identified by independence to Ankara that Turkey will either America’s Adversaries Through Turkey’s supposed preference NATO as its primary military have the S-400 or the F-35 but not Sanctions Act (CAATSA). was to purchase the S-400 system threat. break off with the both. Imposition of CAASTA against and possibly procure US-built United States, the Turkey has vowed to honour its Ankara would effectively restrict Patriots to meet its wider require- Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, road ahead would contract with Russia and is Turkish-US defence cooperation ments for air and missile defence. maintains a cross-disciplinary gearing up to receive deliveries of in a wide range of sensitive areas Turkey said it selected the S-400 focus in international security, bring unpredictable the S-400 system beginning the and jeopardise the operational because Russia’s alternative defence policy and strategic risks and challenges. end of July. Turkish calls for a readiness of the Turkish military offered better monetary value issues. June 16, 2019 15 Debate Turkish Elections No, an internal rebellion within the AKP is not imminent

Still, the opposition’s anger and hunger for victory is so powerful that he has maintained enough Yavuz Baydar support to secure another victory. So, why was Erdogan so intent not to let go of Istanbul when o matter the Imamoglu’s victory was so clear? outcome of the A few days after the AKP’s Istanbul election loss, the party disputed the rerun June 23, results and fired off a barrage of there is no way objections, disseminated by the Turkish President powerful pro-government NRecep Tayyip Erdogan emerges media, bombarding the public victorious. with fake news. This is a good thing for Turkey. It became clear there was a Erdogan’s loss would dim the campaign aimed at cornering the prospects of his ruling Justice YSK, which cracked under the and Development Party (AKP) pressure. It is widely assumed and spark serious discussion that Erdogan will do whatever about the country’s future. he can to keep hold of Istanbul. But how will Turkey’s political The explanation is multilay- landscape reconfigure after this ered but also simple. Erdogan historic period? understands that Istanbul is Turkey’s municipal elections symbolically key. Losing the March 31 rocked Erdogan and metropolis would signal the the AKP like an earthquake. beginning of the end of his reign There were major tectonic shifts and quest for absolute power. It in six major cities, including would go against the legend of Ankara and Mersin, where the his invincibility. opposition gained political Istanbul is also important power. In each of these cases, given the Turkish president’s Kurdish voters played a major inability to control other parts of role in shifting the levers of the country, such as the western power. coast and the Kurdish provinces The real shock, of course, was in the south-east. As such, the the AKP’s loss of Istanbul, the continuity of political power in country’s financial hub that has Ankara and consolidation of been Erdogan’s home turf since financial and media power in he rose to prominence nearly a Istanbul mean a lot for his Dim prospects. Members of Turkey’s ruling AKP party wait for the arrival of Binali Yildirim, Istanbul quarter century ago. image. AKP mayoral candidate, at a market in Istanbul, June 11. (AP) Opposition candidate Ekrem Istanbul, most importantly, is Imamoglu was elected mayor of a financial powerhouse, the city of 15 million but his accounting for nearly half of tion figure indicated he would the entire country. Minister Ahmet Davutoglu but victory was short-lived. Tur- Turkey’s economy and trade. do all he could to reveal to the The opposition is closely he is seen as too ambitious for key’s Supreme Electoral Council This is why most of Erdogan’s public all files stocked in the following how Erdogan’s camp, his level of competence and (YSK) annulled the election prized megaprojects, such as municipality and other docu- which is represented by reluc- unrealistic worldview. Apart results and removed Imamo- the bridge across and tunnel ments he believed needed tant candidate Binali Yildirim, from being detested by the glu from office. They under the Bosporus, the attention and scrutiny. In a will react to their projected loss. Kurds for the destruction and made their ruling, they huge airport and matter of 36 hours, a local court If they admit defeat, will killings that took place during said, after determin- The AKP is likely much-talked-about blocked his inspection team internal rebellion break loose in his reign, Davutoglu is interna- ing that some to bet on Abdullah Gul Canal Istanbul — from accessing the records. the AKP? tionally regarded as responsible presiding officers not to mention What was at stake, it seems, Some circles in the party are for dragging Turkey into the and polling staff and Ali Babacan, if they the tens of was the lack of transparency in waiting for that moment. For regional quagmire. The party he members were dare challenge Erdogan. shopping centres the public tenders processes them, Erdogan is too erratic and is keen to launch is likely not civil servants. Their strategy is to wait and construction and, more generally, the hidden detached from reality. He is also, doomed from the start. In the eyes of until the crisis becomes site — are in the methods through which Istanbul they say, surrounded by syco- The AKP, meanwhile, is likely the opposition, too much for Erdogan city. has for long been governed. If phants who don’t represent the to bet on Abdullah Gul and Ali even among key to bear. The opposition brought to light, these truths AKP anymore. Erdogan is Babacan, if they dare challenge power circles, the accused Erdogan of could expose serious abuses of regarded as a stumbling block on Erdogan. Their strategy is to elected mayor had engaging in corrup- power, potentially leading to certain key policy areas, such as wait until the crisis becomes too his victory snatched, tion in carrying out the Erdogan’s downfall. Understand- the economy, rule of law and much for Erdogan to bear. which only added to his projects. To them, big-money ing this, could Erdogan really foreign policy. All of this makes More will be clear after the image as a rising star. projects are prime examples of afford to let go of Istanbul? him a liability for the bureau- summer and we will see what Emboldened by this percep- how Erdogan and those close to This question tells us how cracy. becomes of Turkey’s historic tion, Imamoglu has fallen into him routinely engage in thiev- important the June 23 election Still, however, Erdogan is far systemic crisis. rhetorical traps, commenting on ery, looting and nepotism. is. Not only will it decide who too powerful to challenge from major issues that fall beyond the Imamoglu honed in on this rules the critical city, it will within. Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish scope of his original platform, issue. As soon as he won the serve as a referendum of sorts on One challenger who has set journalist and regular columnist such as the dispute with Cyprus. election for mayor, the opposi- public morality and the future of himself out is former Prime for The Arab Weekly. What the Istanbul election could tell us

Unlike many international cities centre-left politician Nurettin gerrymandering or a larger international tourism industry. that have seen the wealthy leave Sozen. It wasn’t until Erdogan conservative population. Consequently, what happens city centres for leafy suburban held the post of mayor from We’d be remiss not to mention during an Istanbul election Stephen Starr areas, both Istanbul’s suburbs 1994-98 that politically conserva- the single most important factor campaign is unlike any other and, and central districts are home to tive, free market forces came to behind the Justice and Devel- as such, it’s interesting to see the liberal and conservative voters dominate the city. This opment Party’s (AKP) almost AKP shifting tactics by largely ost large cities are alike. unashamed piety and three-decade rule of taking Erdogan’s face off the epicentres for Turkey’s largest city draws economic growth, Istanbul: Its mayors campaign. liberalism and migrants from all corners of the particularly since modernised the city It says more of how the AKP free thinking. country. It’s home to a large the 2000s, fuelled It’s interesting to in dramatic ways, appears to be struggling even with With the battle for leftist community, conservatives the migration of see the AKP shifting markedly improv- the almost blanket support of the Istanbul in the of varying hues, anarchists and poor and work- ing the day-to-day media, the president and whose tactics by largely Mbalance of the June 23 mayoral members of the far right. It is this ing-class Turks lives of its resi- candidate for mayor, Binali election rerun, we can safely fusion of political affiliations and from the east, taking Erdogan’s dents. Yildirim, has, as minister for assume that Turkey’s largest city small-town loyalties that make it people with face off the Not all CHP transportation, overseen some of does not fit that pattern. such a hard place to nail down broadly conserva- campaign. voters are raving the biggest infrastructural Istanbul stands out from other when it comes to predicting how tive worldviews. leftists and not all projects Istanbul has seen. major world cities, such as individual districts will vote. At the same time, AKP followers are Regardless of who wins the London or New York, cities that Despite the fact that it’s home Istanbul was and to an religious conservatives. vote, scholars, politicos and are liberal hubs and that are likely to diverse groups of people and is extent remains a bastion Just because Erdogan campaigners the world over to vote in a single, dependable surrounded by two seas, Istanbul for the secular elite. crippled Turkey’s democratic would do well to study both sides’ pattern. That’s because major does not have a population of Districts such as Besiktas, institutions doesn’t mean that election campaigns to understand cities are home to people from foreigners comparable to other Kadikoy and parts of its eastern his opponents, the followers of what it takes to win tight urban different backgrounds and cities of its size (the number of and western fringes regularly CHP mayoral candidate Ekrem races. How both sides canvas indi- nationalities that mix and mingle foreign-born residents is believed post-election returns for the Imamoglu, are democratic vidual streets, neighbourhoods together every day. Places such as to have been less than 100,000 centre-left Republican People’s purists. and districts that are more Paris and Singapore have, for people prior to 2007 and the Party (CHP) and liberal candi- What’s more, there are religious representative of small-town centuries, drawn people from all waves of Syrian refugees that fled dates in the high 80 percentile Kurds who broadly agree with the politicking that strict liberal/ corners of the world. Because to the city after 2011) and so range. AKP’s worldview and secular conservative lines will decide the their residents are faced with this conservatism remains a strong What’s changed in recent years Kurds who despise it. There are victor on June 23. diversity, they, largely, are more worldview for millions of its is that the rising cost of housing business owners who laud the accepting of different and residents. has driven the sons and daugh- AKP for developing sections of Stephen Starr is the author of differing views and traditions. Before Recep Tayyip Erdogan ters of traditional secular voters the city and there are those who “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to Istanbul’s diverse socio-politi- became mayor of Istanbul in the to the suburbs where their votes hate it for mismanaging the terror the Uprising” and has lived in cal make-up means it is unique. 1990s, the seat was occupied by have been diluted either by threat that’s killed Istanbul’s Syria and Turkey since 2007. 16 June 16, 2019 News & Analysis East West Failed London bomb plot exposes Hezbollah’s criminal activities in Europe

Simon Speakman Cordall international plot intended to lay the groundwork for attacks. That assertion was supported Tunis by the arrest in May 2015 of a Lebanese-Canadian man, Hus- n alleged terror plot said sein Bassam Abdallah, in Cyprus, to be linked to the Iran- who was found with 8.2 tonnes of backed Lebanese group explosives in his home. Abdallah A Hezbollah was interrupt- admitted stockpiling the material ed by British police four years ago, and his membership of Hezbollah’s the Telegraph, a British newspa- military wing. per, reported. No information was provided The report claimed that in the suggesting that the United King- fall of 2015, Metropolitan Police dom was intended as a target for a raided sites in north-west London, Hezbollah attack. Rather, given the seizing an estimated 3 tonnes of early stages of preparation, indi- ammonium nitrate frozen in dis- cations suggested that the alleged posable ice packs. A man in his plot was in a planning stage. 40s was arrested in connection At the time of the raid, the Unit- with the raid, though he was sub- ed Kingdom only recognised the sequently released. No further in- military wing of Hezbollah as a formation about his identity was terrorist organisation. The British made public. parliament changed that classifica- tion in February 2019 and regards all membership of the group as a Hezbollah’s reach extends criminal offence. beyond the Middle East, Former British Army officer including the United States Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a and the tri-border region of chemical weapons expert, said, Argentina, Paraguay and “This is a massive amount of am- Brazil. monia nitrate and 3 tonnes con- verted to explosives could flatten In the crosshairs. Armed police stand next to a suspicious vehicle parked outside New Scotland Yard Then British Prime Minister Da- several blocks. following an investigation by a bomb disposal unit in London, March 9. (Reuters) vid Cameron and Home Secretary “Ammonia nitrate is the key Theresa May were informed of the component of the fertiliser bombs discovery but neither the public we saw a good deal of in Afghani- Hezbollah’s reach extends be- for spies of countless intelligence can hostilities with Iran or a spoke nor parliament were told. Some stan and favoured by the Taliban yond the Middle East, including agencies and a place to meet in- for distribution.” speculation that the operation’s and other terrorist groups. the United States and the tri-bor- formants. Europe is also a location Contacted by the Telegraph, proximity to the signing of the Iran Despite its deadly potential, am- der region of Argentina, Paraguay where Hezbollah does have a fair the Iranian Embassy in London nuclear deal may have led to the monium nitrate itself is not explo- and Brazil. It has also established amount of political support.” said: “Iran has categorically re- information blackout. sive. However, it “readily forms a foothold in Venezuela and is said Burton said: “In the last decade, jected time and again any type The Telegraph said the investi- explosive mixtures when com- to be close to its embattled Presi- we’ve seen Hezbollah linked to of terrorism and extremism, has gation followed information from bined with fuel oil or aluminium dent Nicolas Maduro. other successful and thwarted at- been victim of terrorism against a foreign country. Israeli newspa- powders or other explosives,” de “Europe has always been a logis- tacks in Bulgaria, France, Cyprus its innocent people and is in pers attributed the source of the Bretton-Gordon said. tical hub for Hezbollah and a place and Denmark. Therefore, the ex- the forefront fighting this inhu- intelligence to the Israeli intelli- “It is very dangerous and de- for money to move and elicit goods plosives stash in London doesn’t man phenomenon. Any attempt gence agency Mossad. pends how much you have but in and out, to include seemingly le- surprise me. to link Iran to terrorism, by claims Citing information provided to 3 metric tonnes could produce a gitimate charitable organisations,” “Hezbollah also likes having off- from unknown sources, is totally the Telegraph from sources dur- massive explosion. This is more said Fred Burton, chief security the-shelf plans for contingency rejected.” ing a months-long investigation, (ammonium nitrate) than was officer at risk analysis and intel- sake. The explosives in the safe British officials established that used in the Oklahoma bomb of ligence consulting firm Stratfor. house may have been for future Simon Speakman Cordall is a the London cache was part of an 1995, which killed 168 people.” “Europe is also a great playground operations in the event of Ameri- freelance writer.

Viewpoint Why does Europe allow Iran and its proxies to get away with terrorism?

he Daily Telegraph As Hezbollah obviously acts at der then-President Barack Obama sanctions was to censure the Irani- newspaper exposed a the direction of Iran, one would to act against such a heinous ac- an Intelligence Ministry and to tar- cover-up in which the at least expect the British govern- tion in one of the Western world’s get only two officials they believed Tallha British government ment to withdraw from the Joint most prominent and important were linked to the attacks while Abdulrazaq allegedly kept silent Comprehensive Plan of Action capitals. condemning the assassinations. about acts of terrorism (JCPOA) — the Iran nuclear deal — Instead, and in what appears to Such a mealy-mouthed response Tperpetrated in London by one of and lobby the United States un- be a clear dereliction of duty to must have caused eruptions of Iran’s most infamous and danger- the British public who voted them laughter in Tehran as the ayatol- ous proxies. in and whom they rely on to keep lahs rightly perceived themselves The report stated that the them safe, Whitehall decided to to literally get away with murder Lebanese jihadist outfit Hezbollah, not only not prosecute the Hezbol- once again. which openly celebrates its close lah agents but to cut them loose Nevertheless, the European and enduring ties with the Iranian and hush things up to keep the Union pressed on with its pledge ayatollahs, had been caught red- atrociously flawed Iran nuclear to keep the JCPOA alive after US handed by Britain’s domestic deal alive. President Donald Trump rightly intelligence service, MI5, as It beggars belief just how far walked away from the terrible deal. Hezbollah tried to perpetrate European powers will bend Despite all these concessions to terrorism in the United over backward to facilitate Iran, the mullah regime has con- Kingdom in 2015. Iran’s rehabilitation into the tinued to further its ballistic mis- Hezbollah operatives international community at sile programme, announced that reportedly had amassed the expense of their own it will greatly increase uranium more ammonium nitrate, national security interests, enrichment, orchestrated sophisti- a key chemical compo- ignoring serious acts of ter- cated attacks against international nent in many explosives, rorism and assassinations oil shipping off the coast of the than used in the Okla- all over Europe. United Arab Emirates and allowed homa City bombing Not only has Iran com- its proxies to directly strike against in 1995 that claimed mitted these heinous acts Saudi Arabia, with the Houthi mili- nearly 170 lives. Had in London but Tehran has tants claiming the June 12 attack Hezbollah executed often conducted opera- on Abha International Airport that its attack, one can tions to strike at its oppo- led to the wounding of 26 civilians. only shudder at nents in European countries With such open hostility against It is high time the thought of either directly or indirectly via Europe and Western allies in the European powers stop how many people proxies. Middle East that threatens energy would have been Last October, Iranian agents markets and the global economy, making excuses for killed in Hez- attempted to assassinate an op- it is high time European powers Iran’s horrendous bollah’s cause of position leader from the Ahwazi stop making excuses for Iran’s hor- fundamentalist Shia Arab minority in Denmark. A year rendous behaviour and get behind behaviour and get jihadism. earlier, an Ahwazi dissident was Trump’s “maximum pressure” behind Trump’s With such a bust on their killed in the Netherlands after Iran sanctions campaign until Tehran “maximum pressure” hands, one would think British hired criminal gangs to conduct its respects its obligations to peace authorities, then under Prime Min- dirty work. While Danish authori- and stability. sanctions campaign ister David Cameron, would have ties called on the European Union until Tehran respects decisively acted against a clearly to levy sanctions against Iran, Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher hostile action against the national Hidden agenda? Armed British eventually even Copenhagen re- at the University of Exeter’s its obligations to security and safety of the United police officers patrol streets in turned its ambassador to Tehran. Strategy and Security Institute in (AFP) peace and stability. Kingdom. London, May 23. The European Union’s idea of England. June 16, 2019 17 News & Analysis East West Migration issue helping far right in East Germany

The Arab Weekly staff economics at Dresden University of Technology, told the Financial Times: “There are a handful of cit- Tunis ies that are growing but elsewhere regions are shrinking rapidly and he next series of mayoral ageing rapidly at the same time. and state elections in Ger- This has major economic implica- many could prop up the far tions: companies will not be able T right in the country’s east- to find workers and regional dis- ern states, analysts said. parities will rise sharply.” The Alternative for Germany The economic quandaries of (AfD), Germany’s third largest par- the east have been a boon to the ty since elections in 2017, won 11% far right as it claimed the federal of the seats in EU parliamentary government has been neglectful of elections in May. In Saxony and East Germans, contrary to its gen- Brandenburg in eastern Germany, erosity with refugees since 2015. the AfD finished first ahead of Ger- Last November, AfD proposed man Chancellor Angela Merkel’s sending 500,000 Syrian refugees Christian Democrats (CDU). back to Syria, claiming the war was The German far right has sought “nearly over.” support by playing on the socio- The misgivings of East Ger- economic divide that separates mans are affecting their trust in former East and West Germany the country’s democratic system. three decades since the country’s A 2019 poll indicated that 42% of reunification. East German respondents said Despite huge investments made they have confidence in the coun- in the region by the federal govern- try’s democracy; 77% of their fel- ment, the former East Germany low citizens in the West said they is economically depressed, espe- do. cially as the country’s negotiates The AfD uses differences in the a transition to renewable energies geographic divide to shape its nar- from coal-based activities. Income rative. “Eastern Germans are wired in many parts of eastern Germany differently, first and foremost be- A familiar history repeated? A banner on East German Trabant car promotes the Sebastian Wippel of is 15% less than the former West. cause the classic social setup of the Alternative for Germany election campaign on the Marienplatz in Goerlitz, June 11. (Reuters) West is non-existent in the East,” AfD leader Alexander Gauland said The economic quandaries of recently. During the EU election cam- rope into a Muslim-majority land. “The German public has the the east have been a boon to It also uses the issue of migra- paign, AfD used a reproduction of The Clark Art Institute in Mas- right to find out about the truth the far right as it claimed the tion to drive a wedge between the 1866 Jean-Leon Gerome paint- sachusetts protested the use of the about the possible consequences federal government has parts of the country and boost its ing “The Slave Market,” which Gerome painting because the work of illegal mass immigration,” he been neglectful of East support in the former East Ger- shows a nude, fair-skinned woman is part of its permanent collection. said. Germans, contrary to its many. Following the EU elections, surrounded by Middle Eastern- However, with the painting being The eastern Germany city of generosity with refugees a Berlin branch of the AfD posted looking men in robes. in the public domain, the institute Gorlitz is to have a run-off mayoral since 2015. a map describing the west and the The painting’s reproduction was could not prevent the AfD from us- election after a first-round vote south of the country as a “German posted on billboards with a mes- ing it. ended with AfD candidate Sebas- With much of the population Caliphate.” It pasted the German sage warning that Germany could Ronald Glaeser, a spokesman tian Wippel in first with 36.4% of having left the eastern part of Ger- flag over the country’s eastern re- turn into a “Eurarabia,” an Islam- for the Berlin branch of the AfD, the vote. If Wippel defeats CDU many and few immigrants settled gions where AfD won most votes. ophobic term used by far-right turned down the request to stop candidate Octavian Ursu in the there, eastern areas are demo- The party removed the groups in the West in their theory using “The Slave Market,” claim- run-off, Gorlitz would become the graphically in decline. Facebook post after a strong public of a looming “population displace- ing the party’s message had educa- first major town in Germany with Joachim Ragnitz, a professor of backlash. ment” that could transform Eu- tional value. an AfD mayor.

Viewpoint Muslims in Europe are ill-advised to convert churches into mosques

turned into mosques. lem for Muslims in Europe is that The association said: “What they cannot properly integrate the Muslims are doing is not wise in Western societies. This simple Mahmoud Zaki behaviour.” reality opens opportunities for This controversy serves to radical Islamist groups to spread highlight the great crisis experi- extremist ideologies among the enced by Muslim communities Muslim communities and trans- in Europe as they were joined by form citizens dissatisfied with the recent waves of immigrants. More West into time bombs. rresponsible acts, with and more, the communities are Security reports reveal that no thought given to their coming under the fire of angry many Islamic centres in Europe, consequences, by members populist right-wing politicians in controlled by radical Islamist of Europe’s Muslim com- Europe. groups, consider buying a church munities are fuelling hatred The controversy raised by the and turning it into a mosque as and violence. The trend behaviour of some members of one form of jihad for the sake of Iof buying churches and turning the Muslim communities, which Allah, no less valued than self- them into mosques is giving the some see as a provocative gift sacrifice. extreme right in Europe one more that stimulates the birth of more Militant Islamist groups are card to consolidate its dominance extreme right-wing, anti-Muslim finding dozens of churches for over Europe by inciting hostility discourse, comes at a time when sale across Europe and encourag- against Muslims. anti-Muslim rhetoric based on the ing Muslim businessmen to buy The controversy sparked in concept of Islamophobia is on the them so they can be converted Building distrust. Towers of the Cologne Cathedral are seen Germany about Muslim communi- rise in Europe in conjunction with into mosques. They follow a pro- behind a dome of a mosque in Germany. (Reuters) ties buying churches to convert an increase of anti-immigration vocative style in announcing the them into mosques revealed the discourse by populist political conversions and reinforce feel- political Islam groups, said the tween the isolation of the Muslim communities’ lack of understand- parties. ings of anger and resentment by issue of transforming the identity communities in European socie- ing of the turbulent situation of These parties target Muslim publishing pictures of the removal of one building from one religion ties and the growing anti-Muslim European society and the rise of immigrants in particular under of the cross and replacing it with a to another has been complex for hatred that is strongly supported Islamophobia. the thin pretext of taking anti-ter- crescent, to mark “a tribute to the hundreds of years and continues by the extreme right that is inch- A Christian association called rorism prevention measures and Islamic religion.” to cast a shadow. ing closer to power in many Euro- Friends of the Protestant Church stopping the threat of terrorism Europe is going through an iden- “Christians still keep the mem- pean countries. in Berlin published a report on the from extremist Islamic groups. tity crisis, not only at the politi- ory of the church of the Byzantine Some Muslims deliberately conversion of ten churches this Observers said the biggest prob- cal and economic levels but also Empire in Turkey, Hagia Sophia, or unwittingly contribute to the year in Germany into mosques. at the religious and ideological that the Muslims had transformed propagation of right-wing ideas It said the phenomenon was levels. This has led to a decline in into a mosque, alive even after through reckless behaviour that not new but it was repeated and the construction of churches and nearly 200 years and Muslims paves the way for a wider spread deliberate. the closure of about 250 churches continue to dream about resusci- of Islamophobia. At the end of 2018, the Nur The trend of buying annually because of declining tating their mosques in Granada, The decisions and actions of Mosque was inaugurated in numbers of worshippers. Cordoba, Malaga and Seville, all some members of the Muslim Hamburg after a Muslim investor churches and turning The issue of transforming of which were transformed into communities in the West reflect bought a church and donated it to them into mosques is churches into mosques has been a churches,” said Farouk. the ironically common ground the Islamic centre of the city. Simi- giving the extreme sensitive one between the Orient Farouk said that turning between radical Islamist groups lar actions were carried out in the and the West for more than 1,000 churches into mosques is a fool- and the far right in Europe. They Netherlands, Britain and France. right in Europe one years. Some may think that, as the ish act, even if the law permits it are sides of the same coin, push- The most prominent examples of more card to European citizen’s attachment to and it is approved by residents ing each other towards more the actions were the openings of his Christian faith has declined, because that behaviour reflects a radicalism in the service of certain Al Fateh Mosque in Amsterdam, consolidate its the time has become ripe for Mus- lack of maturity on the part of the ideological and intellectual goals the Sultan Ayoub Mosque and the dominance over lims to expand. However, histori- Muslim community. “It is a card that further fracture the European Osman Ghazi Mosque in the Neth- Europe by inciting cal conflicts between Islam and that will be used at one point in society. erlands. In France, the Domini- Christianity have long been linked time against Europe’s Muslims,” can Church in Lille and the Saint hostility against to issues of dignity and victory. said Farouk. Mahmoud Zaki is an Egyptian Joseph Church in Paris have been Muslims. Amrou Farouk, an expert on It is not possible to separate be- writer. 18 June 16, 2019 Economy

Tunisia set for good harvest season despite fires Briefs

Lamine Ghanmi Libya’s Sarir oil- field loses 30,000 Tunis bpd in output unisia’s grain harvest is ex- The Sarir oilfield in Libya lost pected to reach 2 million 30,000 barrels per day in output tonnes this year, the coun- because of a power generator fire, T try’s Agriculture Ministry the state-run National Oil Corpora- said, nearly 50% higher than last tion reported on its website. year and 40% above the past dec- A fire broke out June 9 because of ade’s average. weather conditions, the National Oil The positive assessment, due to Corporation said. The field’s output above-average rainfall in the main stands at 155,000 barrels per day, it cereal growing regions of northern added. and central Tunisia, came as wel- (Reuters) come news in a country struggling with a lingering economic crisis. Precipitation was higher and UAE signs $100 well-distributed during important million deal for periods last year, prompting farm- ers to plant more acreage and cre- power plant in Aden ating better crop conditions than in previous years. Seed and ferti- The United Arab Emirates has liser were also more readily acces- signed a deal to build a $100 million sible, farmers said. power plant in the southern Yem- “We got the most wonderful pe- eni city of Aden. riod of precipitations perhaps in The agreement was signed at 30 years,” said Abdessalem Ham- the headquarters of the Khalifa bin mami, 54, a farmer in the north- Zayed al-Nahyan Foundation for ern Beja province. “Rainfall came Positive outlook. A tractor pulls a hay baler after reaping wheat at a field in Tunis. (Reuters) Humanitarian Works with Yemen’s when we needed it, not rapid and Ministry of Electricity. violent but smooth and continu- The deal was reached during ously.” While the higher projected grain There is suspicion that arsonists for the first time to prevent more Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Ab- “It is all good for the harvest and harvest will not end Tunisia’s reli- connected to unscrupulous real fires. He asked the Defence and In- dulmalik’s visit to Abu Dhabi. The the earnings from it for us and for ance on cereal imports, it will help estate speculators or wheat im- terior ministries to provide more power station has a planned capac- livestock. We will also not be wor- decrease its trade and current ac- porters were behind the blazes but air resources to keep the flames in ity of 120 megawatts. The plan is rying about drinking water as the count deficits, which have been no evidence has been put forward check. set to meet the electricity demands dams are filled to their capacities,” widening over the past eight years to support the accusations. The Tunisian Union of Agricul- of about 2.5 million Yemenis. he added. because of economic stagnation. “We cannot say for now whether ture and Fishing urged the govern- Hammami’s neighbour Salah Grain traders and experts said the fires were criminal acts. We ment to open a “serious investiga- (News agencies) Harrabi smiled when asked about the cereals’ domestic output are waiting to know more about tion” into the fires. his harvest. “I planted the same would help trim Tunisia’s imports that from the Interior Ministry,” Vodafone Egypt acreage as last year but I collected by approximately 20% compared said Tunisian Agriculture Minister While the higher projected Samir Taieb. “There are commit- three times more wheat bags,” he to last year. That means Tunisia grain harvest will not end said. would import some 2.9 million tees working on that in the coun- fined 500,000 euros tonnes of crops from July 2019- try’s cereal-growing regions and Tunisia’s reliance on cereal for coverage outage June 2020, including 800,000 we will study their findings.” imports, it will help Fires in early June tonnes of soft wheat. Civil Protection spokesman decrease its trade and Egyptian authorities said they destroyed 681 hectares Tunisia’s domestic grain pro- Moez Triaa said June 12 that fires current account deficits. fined the national branch of mobile of forested land and duction varies sharply depending in early June destroyed 681 hec- phone giant Vodafone 500,000 euros agricultural fields, on the weather. Irrigated wheat tares of forested land and agricul- “These aggressions are crimes ($565,978) because of a coverage compared to 242 acreage accounts for 13% of the tural fields, compared to 242 hec- against the high interests of the outage. hectares during the area in which wheat is planted. tares during the same period last country, its economy and food se- The National Telecommunications same period last year. Most irrigated land is used for du- year. He said 96% of the fires were curity,” the union said in a state- Regulatory Authority said it made rum wheat as part of the country’s “man-caused.” Investigations will ment, adding that farmers whose the “unprecedented” move after “I got more chaff from the har- strategy to reduce dependence on determine whether the human harvests had been affected by the services dropped June 3 “for several vest as well. I paid the cost of the imported durum, which is more factor means neglect or criminal fires should be compensated by hours in multiple regions.” combine harvester from the sale expensive and in limited offer on behaviour, he said. the government. Vodafone, with headquarters in of the chaff to livestock breeders the international market. Hot weather exacerbated the A farmer losing a harvest to a fire London, is the leading provider in from the south of the country.” However, farmers expressed fires, with temperatures soaring could spell disaster because small Egypt, servicing 40 million of the “This year, we were lucky as the concern about losing some of to 44 degrees Celsius, up to 10 and medium-sized family farms country’s more than 100 million rainfall was abundant, even later their harvest to fires, which flared degrees higher than maximum dominate farming in Tunisia. Al- mobile phone lines,” government in May,” said Harrabi. up in the first week of June when temperatures the same period last most 90% of farms are smaller information indicates. Official figures showed that grain was being collected from year. Experts say the heatwave is than 20 hectares and 54% of farms some 700,000 hectares of wheat fields. Authorities are investigat- part of a general climate trend that are less than 5 hectares. (Agence France-Presse) were harvested in 2019, up from ing whether the fires that burned is exacerbated by rising concentra- Tunisia plunged into an eco- 620,000 last year. A total of some 500 hectares were “econom- tions of greenhouse gases. nomic crisis in 2011, leaving small Libyan conflict 620,000 hectares of barley were ic sabotage” or due to neglectful Taieb said the Agricultural Min- farmers struggling to cope with harvested this year, up from behaviour and soaring tempera- istry would fly four drones over reduced subsidies and other lost squeezes southern 525,000 last season. tures. the country’s largest grain fields incentives. Tunisia Viewpoint The conflict in Libya is decimat- ing business in Ben Guerdane, a town in Tunisia’s impoverished south. Can the Tunisian economy be revived? Ben Guerdane, with a population of about 67,000, has for decades person basis, Tunisia is one of the for many of Tunisia’s neighbours. too high. served as an entrepot for goods, most highly educated and highly Recent good harvests have been a There must be a greater focus smuggled or imported, 35km across economically productive coun- blessing of nature and of remark- on regional benefits offered to the border from Libya. Frank Kryza tries but the population numbers ably good agricultural policies. investors rather than those that Approximately 700 stores have only 11.5 million. However, this doesn’t mean much are simply national. Job creation closed in the past eight years as Tunisia has hit a few bumps in to a young Tunisian who lacks a will be sustained by better tax and supplies dwindled and prices the road of late. Yet the first Or- job. logistical performance to facilitate soared, a local traders’ association ganisation for Economic Co-oper- What we must see in the coming external trade. This will attract said. ation and Development Economic months is vastly increased effort more of those desirable foreign (Reuters) Survey of Tunisia emphasised the to promote expansion driven by investors. question on the mind significant improvements that business investment, particu- Policies that promote female of Tunisia’s leaders have been made since the onset of larly foreign investment drawn to employment in the workforce will Aramco extends and many of its citi- democratic rule. The survey noted Tunisia by the simply astonishing also have a highly attractive effect. offer to buy stake in zens concerns the re- weak job creation as a major issue, level of education of its younger Job creation and regional focus cent economic slump along with high unemployment citizens. will continue to be the strongest Arctic LNG 2 project and what it will take and unsustainable public finances. Tunisians make some of the incentives to create more sus- toA make it ancient history. What is to be done? Current finest employees in the world tained and more vigorous regional Saudi Energy Minister Khalid We should start by recognising growth has been projected at when they are given the oppor- growth — and therefore success on al-Falih said Saudi Aramco had how lucky Tunisia is to have the 3.5% for 2019, which is enviable tunity to work. British, American a national level when these results extended its offer to join Russian basic social, political and econom- and German investors have been are aggregated. Though it is a gas producer Novatek’s Arctic LNG ic makeup with which it has been astonished how quickly young Tu- small country, Tunisia is a nation 2 project and that he hoped No- gifted. Tunisia’s GDP is $45 billion nisians, who are often trilingual, of enormous regional diversity, vatek would agree to it, TASS news on a purchasing power parity ba- Job creation and mesh successfully with a home urban versus rural, coastal versus agency reported. sis, vastly greater on a per-person office in London or New York or internal, take your pick. Falih told TASS that Saudi basis than any of its neighbours. regional focus will Berlin. Let’s make these reforms hap- Aramco was also studying Rus- It is the 14th highest GDP in continue to be the The Tunisian government must pen and see unemployment drop sian energy giants Rosneft’s and Africa, competing with such strongest incentives attract vastly more such overseas precipitously! Gazprom’s LNG projects and that economic powerhouses as Egypt investors by speeding up struc- That would make Tunisia the Saudi Arabia might be interested in and Nigeria, which rank higher to create more tural reform in investment regula- strongest country in North Africa. investing in Russian petrochemical not because their citizens are sustained and more tions, reforming the tax system, company Sibur. smarter or work harder but mainly lowering public debt and cutting Frank Kryza is a Dallas-based because of the huge geographic vigorous regional back on costly public financings. writer who serves as honorary (Reuters) disparity with Tunisia. On a per- growth. The tax-to-GDP level is also much consul of Tunisia. June 16, 2019 19 Economy

Viewpoint The win-win revolution of turning discarded palm ribs into modern furniture

Karen Dabrowska more durable than many other types of wood. Mously, whose team developed London a pollution-free cutting machine that reduces energy consump- nterior and product de- tion, has set up the Egyptian signer Hedayat Islam and Society for the Endogenous De- architect Mohamed Saeed velopment of Local Communi- I have teamed to recycle com- ties (EGYCOM) and works with pressed palm ribs, traditionally artisans and farmers in some of burned as waste in rural Egyp- Egypt’s poorest villages. tian communities, by producing The flagship project is a small contemporary furniture. factory, which employs 50 people During a presentation at the in Al Qayat in Minya governorate. Slow reform. A 2018 file picture shows Omani Minister of Commerce and Industry Ali bin Masoud Egyptian Bureau for Cultural and Employees have been trained to al-Sunaidi (C) speaking during the Gulf Cooperation Council’s Commerce and Economic Cooperation Educational Affairs at London turn palm fronds into blocks that Committee meeting in Kuwait City. (AFP) Craft Week in May, they said 15 can be used to produce tables, million palm trees in Egypt and mirror frames, parquet flooring 115 million in the Arab world and wall cladding. were pruned annually, pro- ducing stacks of palm ribs that cause severe air pollution when Despite a strong supply Oman joins other burned. of raw material, Saeed However, they said, the right emphasised the palm investment and management of wood products initiative the ribs could herald a revolution is at a very early stage Gulf countries in in the production of furniture and faces major and other palm wood products. challenges. Islam and Saeed displayed ta- bles and chairs made from palm Mostafa Abdullah, an employ- wood. Other products, such as ee at the factory, said in a video: implementing ‘sin tax’ frames, flooring, tray tables, gar- “We started with the production den furniture and small accesso- of coasters and wooden plates ries, including telephone hold- and then we went on to produce institute a “sin tax” in its 2020-21 which is expected to be $7.3 billion, ers, tableware and boxes, were tables and chairs. We are try- fiscal year. 9% of GDP, in 2019. The government shown on screen. ing to educate people that palm Muscat reportedly dragged its intends to raise $6.2 billion inter- Saeed pointed out that it is leaves can be used as an alterna- Jareer Elass feet for 18 months before moving nationally and domestically with possible to furnish a whole apart- tive to wood to create contem- forward with the new tax over con- the remainder to be pulled from the ment with palm wood. porary products. Many people in cern about the domestic response. country’s reserves. Turning palm tree leaves the village are no longer working ash-strapped Oman has The implementation of a se- However, Muscat will be facing into hardwood and high-qual- in agriculture and they have now begun implementing a lective tax on “sin” products higher borrowing costs. In March, ity products that could reduce learned a new skill.” “sin tax,” following in came from a decision by the GCC Moody’s Investors Service down- Egypt wood imports and create Asmaa Kamel, who also works the footsteps of most Supreme Council in December graded Oman’s credit rating to “junk jobs in rural communities was in the factory, said: “We gained Gulf Cooperation Coun- 2015. That session also produced status,” joining fellow top-ranked pioneered by Hamed el-Mously, self-confidence and made new cil members but major an agreement for GCC members to rating agencies Standard & Poor’s an engineering professor at Ain friends. This project helped the Cfinancial institutions are calling on establish a 5% VAT on designated and Fitch Ratings in their sovereign Shams University in Cairo. young women in the village to Muscat to do much more to get its goods and services. rating downgrades for the sultanate. Egypt has an estimated find a competitive job.” fiscal house in order. Financial institutions, including Moody’s explained its ration- 200,000 workshops and facto- Abdullah said he wants Al The government of Omani Sultan the International Monetary Fund ale for assigning Oman its lowest ries producing furniture and they Qayat to be the leading village in Qaboos bin Said Al Said is mindful, (IMF), have long encouraged GCC investment-grade rating of Baa3 could make use of palm wood. Upper Egypt in the “palm wood” however, of domestic discontent countries to tax businesses and by saying: “The key driver of the “Hamed has been working on business and to compete in the over the country’s economic plight citizens as part of financial reforms downgrade is Moody’s expectation this for 20 years,” Islam said. European market. He said he with protests over unemployment to move their economies from be- that the scope for fiscal consolida- “Saeed and I met him several hopes Al Qayat’s success can be making it tricky for Muscat to enact ing oil-centric and to chip away at tion will remain more significantly times for brainstorming sessions. replicated in other villages. deep economic reforms, includ- the cradle-to-grave welfare systems constrained by the government’s What he is doing has never been EGYCOM has assisted women ing introducing a value added tax entrenched in the countries. economic and social stability more relevant. We are all very in El Kaabi in Fayoum governo- (VAT). Saudi Arabia and the United Arab objectives than it had previously alarmed about global warming.” rate to produce green conference Emirates enacted a VAT levy effec- assessed.” bags using palm leaves. The bags tive January 1, 2018, with Bahrain Sultan Qaboos’s government has can also be used as compost fer- beginning a staged rollout of its VAT been treading lightly in imple- Hedayat Islam and tiliser. Once disposed of, the bag The Omani “sin tax” this year. Qatar has said it has no menting deep reforms that could Mohamed Saeed said 15 can be cut into small pieces and plans to introduce a VAT in 2019, cause domestic backlash but the million palm trees in buried. will involve a 100% while Kuwait has suggested it will Gulf state needs to stimulate its Egypt and 115 million in Mously said he hopes palm levy on tobacco, implement the tax in its 2021-22 economy and create more jobs, the Arab world are wood products are distributed pork, alcohol and fiscal year. particularly for young Omanis. pruned annually, to local shops and showrooms in The Omani government report- The country’s unemployment rate producing stacks of palm Cairo. He said he plans to explore energy drinks and a edly set a target date for its VAT was officially put at 16% in 2017 international markets and assess ribs that cause severe air 50% tax on implementation for September 1, but it well could be higher and the the potential for exports. though it is unclear how much pro- government has been experienc- pollution when burned. Despite a strong supply of raw carbonated drinks. gress has been made in establishing ing periodic protests from jobless material, Saeed emphasised the the necessary regulatory framework citizens. The burning of thousands of palm wood products initiative Oman enacted on June 15 an and preparing businesses and resi- A protest in January 2018 by palm ribs produces a very high is at a very early stage and faces electronic system for register- dents for hitting that target date. hundreds of unemployed people in carbon footprint. major challenges. ing excise taxpayers, setting the A recent visit by an IMF team to front of the Ministry of Manpower Canada’s International Devel- “It is an initiative with very stage for residents to be taxed on consult with the Omani govern- in Muscat as well as a demonstra- opment Research Centre sup- little funding. There is no major products deemed harmful to public ment underscored the significance tion in the southern city of Salalah ported Mously in developing investment because investors health and the environment after a of taxes in helping the sultanate dig prompted the Omani regime to technologies to transform the are looking at ventures that will 90-day grace period. Once in effect, out of its dire economic plight. The announce it would work to cre- midrib, the strong central spine bring a quick return. It is labour- the Omani “sin tax” will involve a IMF team said that while Oman’s ate 25,000 public sector jobs in six in the middle of the palm leaves, intensive and production costs 100% levy on tobacco, pork, alcohol economic activity was gradually months. from a soft living material into are high so, at the moment, it is and energy drinks and a 50% tax on recovering, “deeper fiscal consolida- A nationwide protest January hardened wooded strips. The re- a niche product coming from a carbonated drinks. The government tion is important” and “in the near 1 this year by job-seeking men in search included testing different niche material.” expects to take in about $260 mil- term, introducing VAT and meas- Muscat and the provinces of Dhofar species of date palm and devel- Islam said she is looking for lion annually from the tax. ures to reduce government spend- and Salalah resulted in the govern- oping eco-friendly techniques people interested in working Oman is the fifth Gulf Coop- ing are of the essence.” ment declaring it was creating a for solar drying and gluing to- with palm ribs and developing eration Council (GCC) member to Lower oil prices in 2014 and the national centre for unemployment gether midribs to form wooden their own product line and hopes impose a “sin tax.” Saudi Arabia Omani regime’s reluctance to tackle addressing private and public sec- blocks. the Arab Gulf could invest in and the United Arab Emirates led overspending and fiscal reforms tor job creation. A quality assessment of palm large-scale production of palm the way, implementing excise contributed to Muscat’s debt-ridden wood boards by the Fritz Troger wood products. taxes in 2017, followed by Bahrain. economy. The Omani regime will be Jareer Elass reports from Institute for Wood Research in Qatar introduced its levy January borrowing for the fourth consecu- Washington on energy issues for Munich said the date palm mid- Karen Dabrowska is an Arab 1, 2019. Kuwait has indicated it will tive year to cover its budget deficit, The Arab Weekly. rib is significantly tougher and Weekly contributor in London. 20 June 16, 2019 SocietyDebate

Tackling Arab youth unemployment requires thinking out of the box

the right track. They need to look at how the outside world has evolved Oussama and consider solutions out of the Romdhani box. It goes without saying that some of the training that Arab schools s instability continues provide remains and is likely to to shake parts of the remain disconnected from the Arab world, immedi- fast-changing needs at home and ate attention is natu- abroad. The World Economic rally focused on the Forum noted in 2016 that “in many mass upheaval and industries and countries, the most stutteringA transitions, not on long- in-demand occupations or special- term problems and solutions. ties did not exist ten or even five Judging from the situation in years ago and the pace of change is Arab countries that went through set to accelerate.” turbulent regime change during the Then there is what the World last eight years, it might be too long Bank euphemistically calls “the before it is the right time to have tension between credentials and a serious discussion of the social skills.” More than in most other roots of turmoil. regions in the world, Arab students Sooner or later, however, such are taught to focus on clinching long-term issues will have to be their diplomas regardless of what addressed. In the meantime, condi- they learn or don’t learn. Educa- tions for instability and turmoil tional systems and their societal simmer as the region’s youth are environments, including families yet to have a stake in their coun- and the students themselves, are try’s stability and growth. beholden to an unyielding fetish of For decades, the future of the diplomas. With the private sector next generations was left unat- not convinced by the level of skill tended. Because of lack of vision guaranteed by the diplomas, this and sometimes because of utter leaves new graduates too often ineptitude, many Arab regimes at the mercy of already bloated failed to realise that their and budget-consuming countries’ young people public service institu- were not receiving the tions that care much New world. Two Iraqi youth talk at Mosul incubator for would-be entrepreneurs. (AFP) proper education to It does not take a less about skills than prepare them for crystal ball to figure about the certified the job market or out there might be even educational level. ming language. Reassuringly, more nearly double during the next three that the face of work as we know give them hope for more turmoil in the Upwork, one familiar activities such as video and decades, jumping from 338 million it might have changed for good. a better life. Arab world if no lesson of the leading US photography are also in demand. in 2000 to 724 million in 2050. Independent and non-traditional Today, the region is learnt from global hiring firms for The Arab world does not have the If unmatched by greater eco- employment is likely to be the way is plagued by a experiences or the skilled freelancers, luxury of time. In a recent report, nomic growth and more responsive of the future for talented profes- disproportionately advance of history. last year said 70% the United Nations’ main agency systems, the unique opportunity sionals and not just for low-skilled high level of youth of the top requested responsible for children welfare will be missed as gradual ageing workers. The job security model unemployment, by all skills are new to its list- (UNICEF) wrote about “a window of the population eventually takes dating to the 1900s might be a thing indications the highest ings. Many major multi- of opportunity for rapid economic over. In the meanwhile, popula- of the past. in the world. The situation is nationals, such as Google, Apple growth” that Arab countries have tion growth, especially in conflict It does not take a crystal ball to even more extreme for female or Bank of America, do not require till 2040. plagued countries, could fuel only figure out there might be even more graduates. college diplomas when recruiting Lower birth rates mean the more instability. turmoil in the Arab world if no One reason for this situation is for their top jobs. working age populations of the The current pressures on the job lesson is learnt from global experi- the chronic mismatch between In the age of automation and region will have fewer dependent market would constitute an op- ences or the advance of history. educational training and employ- fast-evolving technologies, skills family members to support. That is portunity if the Arab world could Turning around the region’s educa- ment opportunities. Despite all are likely to be acquired on the spot supposed to free the productivity engage in a deep transformation tional and employment priorities plans and strategies, the problem even if the basics can be taught at potential. of collective mindsets towards might look too overwhelming to has endured. Current thinking will school. Most of us have not heard The problem, however, is that acknowledging that skills and not envisage but there might not be any lead nowhere. The region’s current of some of the most solicited whether the demographic window diplomas should be the determin- other option. and future leaders need to show specialities such as “block chain” opportunity is seized or not, the ing factor in the employability of enough imagination to consider (a very secure digital means of data population time bomb will continue job seekers. There could be also Oussama Romdhani is Editor-in- the possibility they might not be on recording) or the “Go” program- ticking. The region’s population will the need to consider the possibility Chief of The Arab Weekly. Interview Online platforms bringing visibility to knowledgeable voices

2015, she was listed as Top 30 SA: “I came from a part of the diversity among its voices. I also state of the world through great under 30 influencers by the world where — quite often — believe that by having a similar dialogue. That is our mission at Khadija Swedish 4potentials. experts on stage were primarily perspective on stage, societies MENA Speakers.” Hamouchi Azzam spoke with The Arab white men. Many of move towards groupthink. This TAW: What do local speakers Weekly via Skype, discussing the these speakers were, has been proven to be at the have to learn? need to diversify voices in of course, excel- detriment of evolution and SA: “The speakers’ industry is n 2016, Swedish Palestin- international conferences. She lent. Yet, I found it growth. still at its infancy stage in the ian Saana Azzam boldly said knowledge belongs to all very odd that my “Strength lies in differ- region. We had to educate both moved out of her career in people, including Arabs. demographic of ences, not in similarities. By the market and speakers to reach finance. She was set to The Arab Weekly (TAW): How either female or allowing different narratives parity with international improve the state of the powerful is the word in the Arab young was rarely to unfold, we are opening up speakers with regards to market- world through dialogue. world? represented. minds and hearts for more ing and branding. The content Azzam founded MENA Saana Azzam (SA): “The region Seeing Arabs on compassion and understand- and the excellence in achieve- Speakers and KnoW- is infatuated with the power of stage was as rare ing in our world.” ments exist in the region but the IhoMarket, online platforms the words. Just like in the story as a lunar eclipse. TAW: What do these voices branding is one aspect that connecting knowledgeable of the ‘One Thousand and One “Since knowledge share? needs improvement. speakers from the region with Nights,’ we have countless of belongs to all of us, SA: “Raha Moharrak was “Because of this lack in international corporations. She parallel narratives that infuse we ought to the first Saudi female to branding, I aspire to democratise convinced Ericsson, Spotify, passion and drive in the citizens have climb Mount the speakers’ industry. We are Emirates Nuclear Energy of the MENA region. We have Everest. Her yet to unlock the phenomenal Corporation, RTA and Del Monte incredible intellectuals who can story is about stories and ensure that every among others, to join her think and talk about innovation, pursuing her voice gets a chance to pursue mission. business, culture arts, and passion public speaking as a career or Her expertise in the art of poetry among other subjects. against all hobby.” public speaking was carefully “For example, we represent odds. Omar TAW: Why do international crafted through training with Her Excellency Sara al-Madani. Albusaidy, the companies want speakers from media experts from CNBC and She is a young, hard-working author of the the region? MBC. Her speaking engagements and successful speaker who book, ‘Just SA: “We simply have experts include appearances before constantly shatters stereotypes Read It,’ uses who have achieved remarkable crowds of 1,000 people across in her speeches. We support Joy much humour to things. International companies Europe and the Middle East. In Ajlouny, one of the most VC- delve into about understand that we have leaders funded female entrepreneurs in business and at the forefront in their field who the world to share her message culture. are shaping the future in the “Since knowledge with the world. We have hosted “When I go up region by sharing their knowl- Mohammed Qahtani, who is a on stage, I talk edge. International companies belongs to all of us, world champion in public about communica- understand that these are ideas we ought to have speaking. We helped spread the tion and how to use worth spreading and valuable lessons from Sheikh Majid the voice as a force knowledge worth acquiring.” diversity among its Sultan al-Qassimi on veterinary for good. I truly voices.” trade and sustainable agricul- believe that we can Khadija Hamouchi is a Belgian- ture.” create an improved Moroccan social entrepreneur Swedish Palestinian TAW: Why is it important to and founder of SEJAAL, an have our knowledgeable voices A carefully crafted experience. Founder of MENA Speakers and initiative that is building an app (Courtesy of Saana Azzam) Saana Azzam resonate across the globe? KnoWhoMarket Saana Azzam. for young people. June 16, 2019 21 Society Moroccan parliament adopts draft law on Amazigh, controversy persists

Saad Guerraoui can Culture Minister Mohamed Laaraj. The draft law stipulated that Casablanca national identification cards, passports, securities, money, wa- he Moroccan parliament ter and electricity bills, telephone unanimously adopted a and administrative certificates measure on Amazigh to must be issued in Tifinagh as well T be written in Tifinagh on as other areas of public services. public signs but activists said the Tifinagh is used in labelling language is far from being on an public buildings, alongside Ara- equal footing with Arabic. bic and French. The legislation confirmed Approximately one-quarter Amazigh’s official status, eight of Morocco’s population speak years after it received prelimi- one of the three Berber dialects nary recognition as an official — Tachelhit, Tamazight or Tarifit language in the constitution fol- — every day, the 2004 census de- lowing a decades-long battle by termined. activists. This came despite ob- Morocco has struggled to ce- jections by proponents of Arabic, ment the language’s status and who argued recognition would Berber activist Mohamed Assid weaken Morocco’s Arab identity. criticised the law for not going far The measure is designed to bol- enough. ster the use of Amazigh alongside “It is not what most Amazigh Arabic by public institutions and were waiting for. This law re- in cultural life. mains vague. It does not say that Deputies approved the adop- Amazigh must be taught or used tion of Tifinagh after the issue by the media,” Assid said. “We had been blocked for two years demand a conceptual change for by the ruling Islamist Justice and equality between the two official Development Party (PJD), which languages but it is not the case. was pushing for Amazigh to be Discrimination continues with written in Arabic. this law.” Another Berber activist Mo- hammed Eddarhor blamed the Long-awaited measure. Tifinagh seen on a public sign at a school in Casablanca. (Saad Guerraoui) Approximately one- PJD-led government for deliber- quarter of Morocco’s ately delaying the bill. population speak one of “This delay was due to some ten years to give public institutions Laaraj said the draft law “aims subtitled in Arabic and dubbed in the three Berber dialects political parties’ defence of their time to adjust to the regulations. to strengthen the skills of the three Berber dialects. — Tachelhit, Tamazight or own interests and political agen- “It will take years to approve private and public sectors in “For instance, it is more costly Tarifit — every day. da both in Morocco and overseas the draft bill but Amazigh will still Amazigh communication with to make documentaries or series besides their protection of Arabic have less importance within public users, to promote scientific re- in Amazigh than in Arabic be- “The draft law will formal- language for fear that Amazigh institutions than Arabic due to the search related to the development cause of the additional work on ise the Amazigh language in all threatens their values and Arab wordings contained in Article 5 of of this language while encourag- dubbing and subtitles but it pays priority areas of public life and identity,” Eddarhor said. the constitution,” said Eddarhor. ing the creation, productions and much less. It is simply discrimi- integrate it into the sectors of The draft bill must be passed Article 5 declares Arabic as the festivals with Amazigh as a lan- natory and this practice must education, legislation and par- by the House of Councillors be- official language of Morocco. It guage of expression.” end,” he said. liamentary action, media and fore final adoption. It provides a also states: “Tamazight [Berber] Eddarhor slammed discrimina- communication, as well as differ- timetable for the introduction of cultural and environmental char- tion in the media, citing exam- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor ent fields related to artistic and Amazigh in official documents, acter, enumerated constitutes an ples of television programmes on to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb cultural creation,” said Moroc- which will be done gradually over official language.” Amazigh channel that must be issues. Viewpoint The Arab world needs literacy programmes more than ever

tatistics on illiteracy in cause of their own weak potential. the Arab world indicate When discussing literacy pro- Nesrine that traditional reading grammes in the Arab world, many Romdhani and writing programmes pertinent questions rise and place are needed even if the onus of giving convincing finding better literacy answers on the shoulders of the Sapproaches has become necessary programmes’ critics. to sweep ignorance off people’s What alternatives can be of- minds in Arab countries. fered if literacy programmes are Data from the Arab League Edu- eliminated? How could the gaps cational, Cultural and Scientific of ignorance be filled, even in Organisation (ALECSO) states that their simplest and most primitive the illiteracy rate in Arab countries manifestations, let alone gaps cre- is around 21%, much higher than ated by scientific and technologi- the global average of about 13%. cal progress? In what ways can the What is even more alarming consequences of not sitting in the than this disparity between rates is classroom, even for a few years, ALECSO’s warning that illiteracy in be repaired at the basic level of the Arab world is likely to increase learning the elementary use of the because of poor educational condi- mother tongue? Catching up. Iraqi men take part in an Iraqi government’s literacy tions in countries facing crises In this era of technological programme for adults in the holy city of Najaf. (AFP) and wars. ALECSO estimated that, advancements, illiteracy has taken because of those conditions, more a new dimension and now refers than 13 million Arab children are to not acquiring the basic skills because of marginalisation. in the world. Of course, cultural failing to get an education. of using software for computers, Despite the differences between and social factors are the main Many regard literacy pro- applications and devices that have past and present, the Arab world reasons behind this, including the grammes in the Arab world as use- become an essential element of has been living with the same chal- dominance of conservative and ful only because of their propagan- everyday life. lenges for years. The fact that we masculine culture, early marriage, da value for outdated regimes with However, before we can talk celebrate Arab Literacy Day, which poverty and parental low levels of their outdated policies and plans. about that type of illiteracy in the ALECSO adopted in 1970 to gener- education. It is true that literacy programmes Arab world, we must not forget alise basic education and combat ALECSO estimated that 7-20% in the Arab world were often polit- that many Arabs cannot decipher illiteracy, gives the best proof that of children in the Arab world are ical tools in the hands of backward basic codes of our mother tongue we are facing the same challenges dropping out of primary school Arab regimes and that condemned or read notices and warnings on in the Arab world. and that in some countries of the those programmes to fail. medicines or road signs or carry In the not so distant past, Arab region that figure exceeds 30%. However, the poor results out simple everyday tasks that countries struggled to spread After absorbing these statistics cannot deny the importance of require reading and writing. education among all segments of about illiteracy in the Arab world, The illiteracy rate literacy programmes and the On the other hand, the large society and launched many fronts it doesn’t make sense to argue among females in need by large segments of Arab numbers of early school dropouts to win the battle for girls’ educa- that literacy programmes are not populations for them, especially each year in the Arab world make tion. Today, many countries in the important or useless. Such a view Arab countries is among the elderly who were never it necessary to review literacy Middle East and North Africa are lacks legitimacy and is detached estimated at 26%, schooled and young people who programmes to meet the needs of fighting early school dropout rates. from reality. stumbled in their academic jour- those groups, which, if neglected, The illiteracy rate among the highest in neys because of social, economic may turn to crime or become a females in Arab countries is Nesrine Romdhani is a Tunisian the world. or security reasons or even be- burden to the state and society estimated at 26%, the highest journalist. 22 June 16, 2019 Culture Hollywood and MENA Disney’s ‘Aladdin’ remake bridges film and tourism industries in Jordan

Nazli Tarzi blurred, “the view is that there is a market to plug into,” journalist Us- man Butt said, “which goes back at London least 50 years.” The appeal is particularly strong he winding valleys, de- across science fiction, including serts, salt flats and ancient “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” monasteries of the Middle the “Mission: Impossible” fran- T East have long served Hol- chise, “The Martian” and more. lywood as a backdrop for cinemat- Few are attuned to the fact that ic productions, from Star Wars to the planet of Jakku in “The Force Indiana Jones and, more recently, Awakens,” a frontier desert world Guy Ritchie’s “Aladdin.” “home to thieves, outlaws and Jordan’s exotic and authentically scavengers,” is Abu Dhabi’s Rub al A journey back to the desert. Mena Massoud as Aladdin (L) and Will Smith as Genie in Disney’s live-action ancient landscape feeds the Holly- Khali Desert. Away from the cres- adaptation of the 1992 animated classic “Aladdin.” (AP) wood aesthetic and make-believe centic dunes of the Emirates, is worlds that appear on screen and Tunisia’s dried salt lake — Chott Jordan’s own cinema and tourism el Jerid — another famous spot which hired 150 local staff mem- in celebration of the involvement Hollywood stars play an impor- as “Aladdin” puts the country and frequented by die-hard Star Wars bers for filming facilitation and of the RFC that in the past decade tant role as the flurry of videos its prehistoric landscapes on the fans is Luke Skywalker’s home, production coordination. “Alad- created an estimated 95,000 job and Instagram posts from the cast global map. a desert-built igloo that remains din” as RFC board member Mary opportunities in the film sector. showed those took time out of the Using Jordan’s dusty desert ex- standing. Nazzal-Bataineh said in May at a Jordanian film-maker Rula filming schedule to discover Jor- terior to frame important scenes of The pink desert plains of Wadi news conference in Amman, “is Nasser said: “Media and influenc- dan. the “Aladdin” remake, viewers are Rum are testimony that “confirms yet another affirmation for us that ers are now a big asset to PR and “It’s gorgeous,” Mena Mas- transported to a land where other Jordan as a jewel of Hollywood,” as Jordan is the place to film.” marketing campaign since the film soud said of the Amman Citadel, Hollywood films have journeyed a headline from the National news- was shot in Jordan. They are the which jogged his memory to a before. paper read. The archaeological town best ambassadors to come back previous visit to Jordan. “The last “Jordan can finally compete but and talk about the advantage and The archaeological town of Pe- of Petra may cast the time I came to Jordan I went to tra may cast the mind of readers to there was a time where it couldn’t” their experience in Jordan.” Petra, that’s kind of the ultimate, Steven Spielberg’s “Indiana Jones due to the soft power of mammoth mind of readers to Steven Nasser said “what made the but this” he said, pointing to the and the Last Crusade” or “The industries like Egypt… Egypt is the Spielberg’s “Indiana tour so stunning is that (Jordanian mound, “is phenomenal.” Mummy Returns,” both of which big one but it tanked in the ’90s,” Jones and the Last Crown) Prince Hussein hosted a As war in the region redefines were filmed there. From the pink Butt said. Crusade” or “The huge fundraiser with the pres- and reshapes landscapes, the ap- sands of Wadi Rum, Petra’s mon- Jordan boasts of its own colour- Mummy Returns,” both of ence of the cast,” with proceeds to peal of other countries is finding a asteries to the citadel of Amman, ful film-making industry but pro- which were filmed there. be used to build an extra wing for new audience both abroad and at Jordan’s unique space doubles as ductions such as “Aladdin” binds children at the King Hussein Can- home. a film set and vibrant tourism hub, not only film and tourism but ush- “Not only have we been suc- cer Centre. attracting up to 4 million tourists a ers in other economic opportuni- cessful in positioning Jordan as Far more than a modern Disney Nazli Tarzi is an independent year. ties. the place for film but we have also hit is at stake that Jordan carefully journalist whose writings and As one of the few safe areas in The cast and director of Dis- been instrumental in achieving a managed by negotiating prices, cre- films focus on Iraq’s ancient a region where the line between ney’s latest remake worked with positive social impact on our com- ating hundreds of jobs and repack- history and contemporary Hollywood and real-life villains is the Royal Film Commission (RFC), munity,” Nazzal-Bataineh added aging the kingdom’s appearance. political scene. The story of an Arab stuntman in Hollywood

Saber Ben Amer nisian Radio and Television in 1966. “They were the ones who ignited my love for cinema,” Ben Azouz Tunis said. “I remember my first pay as a ejib Ben Azouz is a mem- stunt double was in 1985 for dou- ber of an elite community bling French actor Jean-Paul Bel- of 500 stuntmen. The Tu- mondo in the film ‘The Profes- N nisian stuntman special- sional’,” Ben Azouz said. “It was ised in automobile and motorcy- about 19,000 French francs (about cle stunts for nearly two decades $2,000) at the time. My last pay in front of the camera but gave up as a stuntman was 130,000 euros the dangerous work in 2005 and ($147,000) in a film directed by became a stunt trainer and coordi- German director Frank Mayer for nator. He has also directed several my work as a stunt coordinator for documentaries. some world famous stuntmen.” Ben Azouz has lived mainly in Ben Azouz, who specialised in France since 1985. As a young man, car and motorcycle stunts, said he studied to be a pilot at the Avia- stunt work was probably the most tion Academy of Borj El-Amri in Tu- difficult job in cinema. Of 500 nisia and in France. He studied film stuntmen worldwide, seven were directing at the French National killed on the job and many suffered School of Fine Arts. serious injuries during filming. He gave up his job as a pilot to “The stunt double definitely focus on his passion for work as a spares a certain death to the ac- stuntman and body double for ac- tor and ensures the success of the tors. He did that from 1985-2005, film,” he said switching to directing stuntmen Ben Azouz said one of the condi- and working on documentaries. tions in the contract of any stunt- “In reality, a career in aviation man stipulates that neither the wasn’t my goal right from the start stuntman nor his family can sue the but perhaps I had studied for it be- production company for compen- Breathtaking journey. Former Tunisian stuntman and director Nejib Ben Azouz in Cannes, last June. cause it was kind of very close to sation in case of death on the job. (Courtesy of Nejib Ben Azouz) stunt work because of the risk fac- This clause is the same worldwide tor involved,” Ben Azouz said. and an agreement to that effect “My only and unique love was is signed at the beginning of each starred Irishman Pierce Brosnan. I after an on-set accident, Ben Azouz “Amazigh.” He also co-directed stunt work and doubling so I did filming. Stunt performers have worked also in Oliver Stone’s 1986 said he elected to continue his cine- the musical opera “Ghanni Lil Hob not complete my studies in avia- medical insurance, though. film ‘Platoon’ and I doubled for in- matic career by directing documen- Wa Assalam” (“Sing for Love and tion, even though I worked as assis- “The production of action films ternational film star Robert De Niro tary films. Peace”) by Tunisian artist Mokdad tant pilot for two years. I chose to in our Arab world has been limited, in ‘The Mission’ in the same year He directed “Hadiqatu al-Jan- Shili, which was presented at the stay on the ground for my work and except perhaps in recent years with and in many other international nen” (“The Gardener’s Garden”), 2017 Carthage Summer Festival. soar high in cinema. This is how I the emergence of new faces such as films. “Naqshat Hadida” (“Tatoo”), “Laji’i Ben Azouz said he intends to par- blended my passion with my work.” Ahmed El Sakka, Mohamed Rama- “In Tunisia, I participated in the al-Sutuh” (“The Refugees of the ticipate with “Ghanni Lil Hob Wa Cinema is a family tradition for dan and others,” Ben Azouz said. TV film ‘The Spider Web’ by Mo- Roofs”) and “Al-I’aqa Imenun bi- Assalam” at the second Tunisian Ben Azouz, 60. An uncle was an “So naturally, as a stunt double, hamed Rached Belghith and in the Nafs” (“Disability is Self-assur- Film Festival at the Culture City of assistant director at the Office of I found my chance in international television series ‘Ghada,’ directed ance”) about the personal experi- Tunis. French Radio and Television. An- cinema. I did stunt work in films by Mohamed Haj Slimane, plus ence of a Tunisian with a disability. other uncle, Salih Wiza, was among like ‘GoldenEye,’ from the famous some other works.” He is completing a documen- Saber Ben Amer is a Tunisian the pioneering directors at the Tu- James Bond series and which When he retired from stunt work tary film with the working title writer. June 16, 2019 23 Culture

Cairo International Biennale makes a strong comeback after 8-year absence

Hassan Abdel Zaher committee. “This country will con- tinue to be a meeting point for crea- tive people in all fields.” Cairo Arab countries participating in the biennale include the United he Cairo International Bien- Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Tuni- nale, Egypt’s largest cultur- sia and Lebanon. al event, made a comeback An international jury, headed by T this year with its 13th edi- Austrian artist Felicitas Thun-Ho- tion after an 8-year hiatus. henstein and including Catherine The biennale, which first took David and Annabelle Teneze from place in 1984, was suspended in France, Amelia Jones from the 2011 following the revolution that United States and Teresa Grandas toppled Egyptian President Hosni from Spain was brought together Mubarak. It returned with a larger for the event. French artist Gerard and more comprehensive scope, Garouste is the guest of honour of organisers said. the biennale. A total of 78 artists from 52 coun- Six finalists were selected for tries, including 12 Arab and 15 Af- the event’s awards with the top rican countries, participate in the prize, the Grand Nile Award given edition, which kicked off June 10 to Belgian artist Joris Van de Moor- and runs through August 10. Events tel. Other awards went to Egyptian are scheduled for three art centres sculptor Ahmed al-Badry, Iraqi art- in Cairo, including the Egyptian Op- ist Sadik Kwaish Alfraji, South Ko- era House. rean artist Kim Heecheon, Austrian “We promise everybody that this artist Brigitte Kowanz and Jorda- edition of the biennale will be more nian artist Ayman Yosri. daring than ever before,” biennale This year, the Ministry of Cul- organiser and sculptor Ehab el-La- ture allocated 1 million Egyptian ban said. pounds ($60,000) for the biennale’s The biennale is a meeting point awards. for all types of artists, including The biennale convened under the painters, printmakers, sculptors, slogan “Towards the East,” which photographers, video film-makers, Laban said “sums up the message designers and architects. It is also of the event, namely showcasing an occasion for artists to get in Eastern arts and bringing them to- Exploring roots. A painting on display druring the Cairo International Biennale. (Hassan Abdel Zaher) touch, exchange experiences and gether with influences from other be exposed to influences from oth- parts of the world.” er regions and cultures. He said works by Arab artists tian artists participating in the please those around us, even if this “The room contains chairs, differ- After eight years of absence, the demonstrated the tangible progress event, presented 75 photo portraits will make us lose a beautiful trait,” ent pieces of chess and historical biennale’s comeback was greeted on the artistic and cultural stage of and a video of a woman drawing said Adel, a first-time participant. slogans. It is meant to reflect the dif- with national euphoria and reaf- Arab countries. and redrawing her face several “It is a wonderful opportunity for ferent influences that cultures have firmed the restoration of Egypt as “The Arab artists participating in times. Each time the woman draws me to showcase my work and see on each other,” Mestkawy said. a cultural powerhouse, organisers the new edition of the biennale are her face, she removes one of the the works of other people. It is very “There is unprecedented enthu- said. highly competitive. They brought features of the previous drawing. rewarding,” she added. siasm for the biennale this time,” “It gives a strong message that in dozens of works, some of which The message the video wants to Egyptian artist Hazem el-Mest- said Mestkawy, who has participat- Egypt is still present and coming are real masterpieces, even though deliver, Adel said, is that sometimes kawy’s work consists of a room ed in the event since 1990. “Such back with force on the cultural they did not win any awards,” La- women must part from their natu- whose parts were brought together cultural events bring Egypt back to scene,” said Yasser Mungi, a mem- ban said. ral beauty under social pressure in an innovative and intriguing its rightful position on the interna- ber of the biennale’s organising Marwa Adel, among seven Egyp- and criticism. “Most of us want to manner. tional cultural map.” Jameel Prize exhibit in Dubai showcases ‘breadth of the legacy of Islamic design and visual culture’

N.P. Krishna Kumar launched in 2009, it was really in the world.” something revolutionary,” said An- “We hope that visitors to those tonia Carver, director of Art Jameel. museums encounter the dynamic, Dubai “That is to showcase contempo- thought-provoking work of ‘our’ rary artists from all over the world artists and perhaps rethink any as- he works of Iraqi artist Me- and from any background or faith, sumptions they may have about hdi Moutashar and Bang- whose work was inspired or influ- this part of the world,” Carver add- ladeshi architect Marina enced by the principles of Islamic ed. T Tabassum, winners of the design and art and to show their Moutashar said the guiding prin- Jameel Prize, the only global award work in the heart of London’s mu- ciples of his work — geometry and Thought-provoking. Installation view of Jameel Prize 5 joint- for artists and designers inspired by seum world, at the V&A.” the rejection of illustration — have winner Marina Tabassum’s work at Jameel Arts Centre. Islamic design and visual culture, “Of course, now international their origins well before the begin- (Art Jameel and Dani Baptista) are being shown at the Jameel Art audiences are far more aware of art- ning of his artistic journey. Centre in Dubai. ists from the Middle East and South “My constant dialogue with na- The exhibit showcases the works Asia and of the great legacy of Is- ture, during my childhood and and Islamic art made him “aware enhancing the sense of equality of shortlisted participants Iranian lamic art but the prize still remains adolescence on the banks of the that arabesque art, calligraphy and among those using the space.” artist Kamrooz Aram; Dubai-based the only one of its kind,” Carver Euphrates, observing palm trees architecture have a long scholastic Carver applauded the winning Jordanian graphic designer and said. and the light and shadow effect tradition and contemporary ap- artists, saying: “We were thrilled architect duo Naqsh Collective; While promoting Islamic art and they produced, drawing in the sand proaches to space and especially to see an architect win for the first Iraqi-born painter Hayv Kahraman; artists from the region, Carver said: using date seeds, playfully adding the experience of using the full time (Tabassum) alongside a ma- Bahraini fashion designer Hala Kai- “Our primary focus is on present- paint to the nooks and crannies available space.” ture, renowned yet under-known ksow; Moroccan multimedia artist ing high quality, discursive exhibi- in the corners of brick houses, all Tabassum who lives in Dhaka, artist (Moutashar).” Younes Rahmoun; and Pakistani tions and programmes that engage these activities have defined my re- Bangladesh, was declared the win- “The reaction to their work and painter Wardha Shabbir. the broadest audiences. Most of our lationship with space,” Moutashar ner of the Jameel Prize for her pro- that of all the finalists in the exhi- Begun in 2009, the prize received programmes are based in the Mid- said. ject Bait ur Rouf Mosque in Dhaka, bition from the audiences here in 1,193 nominations from more than dle East itself but we also work with Moutashar left Iraq in the late for which she also received the Dubai has been fantastic. We’ve 40 countries, exhibited the work of international partners, including 1960s and lives in Arles, France. Aga Khan Award for Architecture also had thousands of schoolchil- 48 artists and designers and toured the Metropolitan Museum of Art, The basis of his work is a line, in 2014-16. Light is a core element dren visit the exhibition and take 16 venues globally. New York and in London, the V&A which he develops into construc- in her design. The mosque is natu- tours with our education team and The Jameel Prize shortlist was and Delfina Foundation, to enable tions, drawing on Islamic traditions rally lit and ventilated with open they’ve been truly wowed to see most diverse featuring, for the first exchange between the arts commu- of sophisticated geometry and el- courts on four sides. the breadth of the legacy of Islamic time, architecture among its disci- nity of the region and those else- egant script. In the film directed by Steven M. design and visual culture,” Carver plines, while sources of inspiration where and to make sure that Mid- Moutashar said his discovery of Fisher featuring the shortlisted art- added. ranged from calligraphy to embroi- dle Eastern artists have their place abstract geometry and minimal- ists that are part of the exhibition, dered shawls. in these incredible, encyclopaedic ism in Paris and exposure to West- Tabassum said: “There is a sense N.P. Krishna Kumar is an Arab “When the Jameel Prize was museums, among the most visited ern artists’ perspective on Arabic of spirituality. The lighting is even, Weekly contributor in Dubai. 24 June 16, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Tunis: Through June 20

Carthage Dance takes place at Tunisia’s City of Culture. During the festivities people can attend 37 shows with more than 200 participants from around the world. Workshops and conferences will also be on the agenda.

Oman: Through July

Taking place annually in Dho- far province, the Salalah Tour- ism Festival hosts street shows, concerts, games, fireworks, cultural activities and food stalls for locals and tourists.

Dubai: June 21-August 3

Organised by Dubai Festivals and Retail Establishment, An Iraqi man the annual Dubai Summer stands next to Surprises offers an array of summer deals across the city’s boats in Dhi Qar. (Rashad Salim) shopping outlets, attractions, hotel staycations and family entertainment.

Byblos: Safina Project July 12-August 24 Byblos International Festival in the ancient Phoenician port city of Byblos, north of resurrects ancient Beirut, features international rock bands and pop singers. This year’s schedule includes Iraqi vessels on French singer Mark Lavoine, Mashrou’ Leila and Queen Symphonic. Euphrates River Agadir: July 13-16

The 16th Timitar Festival for Nazli Tarzi The idea, Salim said, was to chal- Amazigh culture and world lenge common perceptions sur- music will take place in Agadir, rounding the ark that Noah built, Morocco, and will feature inter- London which gave life to Salim’s first pro- national and local performers. ject, the Ark Re-Imagined. Noah’s The event includes artists from he erosion of arts in Iraq has Ark, in the artist’s mind, stood out Senegal, Morocco, Algeria, been widely commented as “an example of Western misun- Mali, France, Lebanon, Cuba on; however, few have ded- derstanding,” which drove him to and other countries. T icated themselves to the want to uncover “building alterna- preservation of certain dying crafts. tives.” Al-Qassim: The Safina Project, conceived by Local vessels range from the July 14-17 British-Iraqi artist Rashad Salim gufa, a coracle, to the mashuf, a and Hannah Lewis, was created slim canoe. Salim’s endeavour has Almithnab Summer Festival in with the revival of Iraq’s traditional taken him into the heart of Iraq’s Saudi Arabia offers a range of Mesopotamian boats in mind. marshlands, the country’s Ever- fun activities such as live per- The fruits of their labour have glades, where he worked alongside formances and games. Visitors been on display as activists tested local communities in Babylon and can check out the wide range of prototypes. Locals have probably Hilla to revive vessels that once arts and crafts displays, cafes spotted the vessels sailing on Iraq’s commonly transported people and and restaurants. rivers. The first trial expedition set cargo. off from Hit, north-west of Ramadi, Ark Re-Imagined inspired simi- Beiteddine: several weeks ahead of a real voy- lar initiatives that put into use July 18-August 10 age in June. lost items belonging to Iraq’s well- A young boy sits inside a traditional Iraqi boat in Dhi Qar. “We’ll move onto Hilla to reach established tradition of maritime (Rashad Salim) The annual Beiteddine Art Basra,” Ali Alkarkhi, campaign co- crafts. The mission, he said, was a Festival, in the Chouf moun- ordinator at Humat Dijlah, a local “repackaging of the past” that “we tains, includes a variety of environmental NGO, said in a video [Iraqis] owe a lot to.” while rich traditions exist “the been present but were overcome. performances from opera posted on the organisation’s Face- “Iraq is unique in the sense of view of art” in today’s Iraq “has Now that boats have been re- and concerts to theatre and book page. how much of its crafts it lost” and narrowed,” he said in a telephone vived in physical form, activists art exhibitions. The festival conversation. are moving on the project’s second welcomes more than 50,000 Because of war, the growth of art phase, in which boats they have visitors as well as numerous and its evolution — from crafts to sculpted will sail on the Euphrates star performers. architecture — have been stunted for 40 days, in a nod to the story of and mismanaged. However, what Noah’s Ark. Jerash: is more realistic than the reversal of The aim “is not to stimulate do- During July time is a reclamation of the past, as mestic tourism or to enjoy our- the trail expedition has succeeded selves,” Alkarkhi said. “As an NGO The Jerash Festival of Culture in doing. concerned with environmental and Arts, first put on in 1980, Salim mobilised a team of crafts- problems and climate changes, we transforms the ancient city men and in doing so found environ- want to relay important messages.” of Jerash, Jordan, into one of mental activists eager to help. Protecting the Euphrates, threat- the world’s liveliest cultural Iraq’s ancient maritime tradition, ened by upstream irrigation and the events. With singers, poetry Salim said, is something that “the heritage associated with Iraq’s twin readings, ballet performances, people have lost connection with.” rivers ranked first. symphony orchestras and Despite that, local art remains “in- Others dream of a longer lasting art shows. This year’s edition spired by the curves in palm trees, effects. includes artists such as Marcel the light and cannot be understood Incorporating these crafts into Khalifa, Mohamed Mounir, until it’s truly experienced,” he local economies in a way that ben- Abeer Nema and the Sultans of said. efits local communities for whom Syria. Working with local communi- the Euphrates or Tigris is a vital re- ties, Salim said, “what we’re giving source, is a direction that Salim and through our work is engagement.” Lewis envisage. We welcome submissions of Salim’s network of friends and en- “To create permanent work op- calendar items related to thusiasts provided “major support,” portunities is the project’s future cultural events of interest to he said, but the road has not been aim,” Salim aid. travellers in the Middle East clear of challenges. From official au- The Safina Project has encour- and North Africa. thorities unable to follow through aged young Iraqi to step forward on promises of assistance and fund- and rekindle ties to their natural Please send tips to: Iraqi men row as they sail on the Euphrates River. ing to the absence of clearance to ecology, spreading new knowledge [email protected] (Rashad Salim) freely manoeuvre, problems have as well as new hope.