Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains
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Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains Final Report Submitted to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Weather Damage Modification Program Denver Federal Center Denver, Colorado 80225 In Fulfillment of Financial Assistance Agreement No. 03-FC-81-0925 September 2005 Department of Natural Resources Colorado Water Conservation Board Flood Protection & Weather Modification Permitting Denver, Colorado 80203 Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains Final Report By Curt Hartzell, William Cotton, Ray McAnelly, Gustavo Carrió, Paul Mielke, Joe Busto, Steve Schmitzer, Larry Hjermstad, and Ross Williams Project Team for Research Project Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) Flood Protection & Weather Modification Permitting Section Joe Busto, Project Manager Denver Water (DW) Operational Cloud Seeding Program Steve Schmitzer Becky Dechant, Greg Bryant Project Consultant to CWCB & DW Curt Hartzell, CCM Consultant to CWCB for GIS Support Ross Williams Cloud Seeding Operations for DW Western Weather Consultants, LLC Larry Hjermstad Colorado State University Research Team Dr. Bill Cotton, PI Ray McAnelly, Gustavo Carrió, Paul Mielke, Brenda Thompson September 2005 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables iv List of Figures v List of Appendixes ix Acknowledgements x Colorado Weather Modification Grant Program xii Executive Summary xv Glossary and Acronyms xix 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Weather Damage Modification Program 1 1.2 Project Administration and Management 1 1.3 Current Status of Winter Orographic Cloud Seeding 2 1.4 Colorado Weather Modification Permit Program 4 1.5 Denver Water Operational Cloud Seeding Program 6 1.6 Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System 6 2. PROJECT OVERVIEW 10 2.1 Colorado WDMP Research Project Goal and Objectives 10 2.2 Denver Water 2003-2004 Operational Cloud-seeding Program 10 2.3 CWCB-CSU Interagency Agreement 16 2.4 Task 1 16 2.5 Task 2 20 2.6 Task 3 21 2.7 Task 4 24 2.8 Post-operational RAMS Control and Seed Runs 33 2.9 Task 5 35 2.10 Task 6 36 3. Results and Findings 38 3.1 Use of RAMS Real-time Forecast Output for Cloud Seeding Activities 38 3.2 Comparison of Model Control Precipitation and SNOTEL Observations 40 3.3 Comparison of Model Control and Seed Simulated Precipitation 55 3.4 Model Background and Seed Ice Forming Nuclei Concentrations 65 3.5 Distribution and Change of Model SLW for Control and Seed Days 73 3.6 Comparison of Rawinsonde and Model Low-level Temperatures 80 3.7 MRBP Evaluation of Model Performance 84 3.8 Lagrangian Model Simulation Transport and Dispersion Case Studies 86 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 103 4.1 Conclusions from the Colorado WDMP Research Project 103 4.2 Recommendations for Future Research and Operational Projects 105 iii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1 Operational cloud seeding summary for DW 2003-2004 13 Program Table 2.2 List of 30 cloud seeding days selected for evaluation 23 Table 2.3 Regimes identified for 30 selected days and Lagrangian 24 analyses Table 3.1 61-site/30-day Model and SNOTEL precipitation comparison 43 Table 3.2 SNOTEL site Ids used in 30-day analysis, grouped by area 46 Table 3.3 Average 30-day precipitation (mm) by SNOTEL areas 46 Table 3.4 Average multi-day simulated precipitation totals 55 Table 3.5 Case 1 comparison of Rawinsonde and RAMS 700-mb 82 temperatures Table 3.6 Case 2 comparison of Rawinsonde and RAMS 700-mb 82 temperatures Table 3.7 Results of MRBP analysis 85 Table 3.8 Generator sites used in Lagrangian analysis 88 Table 3.9 Average Meteorological Variable Over Generator and Target 97 Areas Table 3.10 Time Average Particle Statistics over Target Area – Vertical 98 Distribution Table 3.11 Time-average Particle Statistics Over Target Area - By Group 98 and Generator iv LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1 Countries with active cloud seeding programs 3 Figure 1.2 RAMS Grid 1 8 Figure 1.3 RAMS Grid 2 9 Figure 1.4 RAMS Grid 3 9 Figure 2.1 Intended target area for the DW 2003-2004 Program 11 Figure 2.2 WWC seeding generator site V1 12 Figure 2.3 Summit Ranch SNOTEL traces for Water Year 2004 15 Figure 2.4 Fremont Pass SNOTEL traces for Water Year 2004 15 Figure 2.5 RAMS 3-km fine grid with Denver Water Program target area 17 Figure 2.6 SW to NE topographic perspective view 18 Figure 2.7 W to E topographic perspective view 19 Figure 2.8 NW to SE topographic perspective view 19 Figure 2.9 SNOTEL sites in and near the DW Program target area 22 Figure 2.10 Example of RAMS 700 mb forecasts of wind flow and 26 temperature Figure 2.11 Example of surface wind flow and accumulated total 27 precipitation Figure 2.12 Example of a west to east cross-section through target area 28 Figure 2.13 Example of a north to south cross-section through target area 29 Figure 2.14 24-hr simulated precipitation ending Nov. 11, 2003, 0800 31 UTC Figure 2.15 Example of seed-control simulated precipitation difference 34 analysis v Figure 3.1 30-day total control run RAMS Grid 3 simulated precipitation 41 field Figure 3.2 Plot of 30-day total model vs. observed precipitation at 61 44 SNOTEL Sites Figure 3.3 The 61 SNOTEL sites used in project evaluations 45 Figure 3.4 24-hr Precipitation for SSW Wind Flow Regime 49 Figure 3.5 24-hr Precipitation for WSW Wind Flow Regime 50 Figure 3.6 24-hr Precipitation for WSW Wind Flow Regime #2 51 Figure 3.7 24-hr Precipitation for WNW Wind Flow Regime 52 Figure 3.8 24-hr Precipitation for NNW Wind Flow Regime 53 Figure 3.9 24-hr Precipitation for NNW Wind Flow Regime #2 54 Figure 3.10 30-day total Seed-Control Grid 3 precipitation difference 56 Figure 3.11 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for SSW Wind Flow Regime 58 Figure 3.12 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for WSW Wind Flow 59 Regime Figure 3.13 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for WSW Wind Flow 60 Regime #2 Figure 3.14 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for WNW Wind Flow 61 Regime Figure 3.15 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for NNW Wind Flow Regime 62 Figure 3.16 24-hr Seed-Control Precipitation for NNW Wind Flow Regime 63 #2 Figure 3.17 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for SSW Wind Flow 67 Regime Figure 3.18 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for WSW Wind Flow 68 Regime vi Figure 3.19 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for WSW Wind Flow 69 Regime #2 Figure 3.20 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for WNW Wind Flow 70 Regime Figure 3.21 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for NNW Wind Flow 71 Regime Figure 3.22 Vertically Integrated AgI Concentration for NNW Wind Flow 72 Regime #2 Figure 3.23 Vertically Inegrated SLW for SSW Wind Flow Regime 74 Figure 3.24 Vertically Inegrated SLW for WSW Wind Flow Regime 75 Figure 3.25 Vertically Inegrated SLW for WSW Wind Flow Regime #2 76 Figure 3.26 Vertically Inegrated SLW for WNW Wind Flow Regime 77 Figure 3.27 Vertically Inegrated SLW for NNW Wind Flow Regime 78 Figure 3.28 Vertically Inegrated SLW for NNW Wind Flow Regime #2 79 Figure 3.29 Vertically Inegrated SLW for NWS 700-mb analysis for 0000Z 81 January 29. 2004 Figure 3.30 RAMS Grid 2 temperature analysis for 0000Z January 29, 81 2004 Figure 3.31 NWS 700-mb analysis for 0000Z February 5, 2004 83 Figure 3.32 RAMS Grid 2 temperature analysis for 0000Z February 5, 83 2004 Figure 3.33 Locations of the 16-sites/4-groups used in the Lagrangian 87 studies Figure 3.34 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Nov. 3, 90 2003 Figure 3.35 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Jan. 2, 91 2004 vii Figure 3.36 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Nov. 14, 92 2003 Figure 3.37 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Nov. 26, 93 2003 Figure 3.38 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Dec.15, 94 2003 Figure 3.39 Particle concentration fields (0-2 km AGL) for the Feb. 5, 95 2004 Figure 3.40 Particle concentration fields (0-50 m AGL) for the Jan. 2, 101 2004 Figure 3.41 Particle concentration fields (0-50 m AGL) for the Jan. 2, 102 2004 viii LIST OF APPENDIXES Appendix 1 – WWC Cloud-seeding Generator Sites Appendix 2 – NRCS SNOTEL Sites in Colorado Appendix 3 – February 4, 2003 Seeding Test Case Appendix 4 – WWC Daily Operational Notes Appendix 5 – SNOTEL Observed & Model Control Simulated 24-hr Precipitation Appendix 6 – Multivariate Randomized Block Permutation Evaluation Output ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Numerous organizations and individuals have made significant contributions to this scientific study entitled, “Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains.” Although the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) staff was tasked with submitting the proposal on behalf of state of Colorado, bringing this project to fruition would not have been possible without the following agencies and individuals listed in subsequent paragraphs. Although not all of the project supporters can be acknowledged on this page, recognition of several of the more involved organizations and individuals is essential and appropriate. As population growth and reliance on Colorado’s water resources along the Front Range and outside our state borders continue to grow, we must seek a better understanding of harvesting atmospheric water resources for the benefit of current and future generations.