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Make a Difference to Your Climate with the Met Office

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Make a Difference to Your Climate with the Met Office Together Make a difference to your climate with the Met Offi ce Contents Climate change is with us 01 What is climate change? 02 Top 10 climate facts 03 The science 04 The greenhouse effect Is climate change natural? Is it really down to our CO2 emissions? 05 How do we know? Is there proof? The effects of climate change 06 The economic impacts 10 The economic costs 12 The hidden costs What can you do? 14 Can we still make a difference? 15 What, even me? Can we be sure? 16 How can we manage an uncertain future? Slow down or brake? How we can help 20 What’s the Met Office Hadley Centre? 22 What exactly do we do? How can we work together? Could we do even more? The topline 23 Act now! 24 Climate change is with us Many people are now aware of the potential impacts of our changing climate. An increase of just one degree in average temperature, possible in the UK in the next 20 years, could lead to more flash floods and sea level rise. The purpose of this guide is to set We can work with you to provide and climate, including the practical out what’s really happening and how general advice on the science of climate experience of helping our customers climate change will affect you. change and, more important, help you manage the impacts of the weather adapt. on the ground. We also have the Reducing (mitigating) and preparing business insight to minimise its economic for the effects of (adapting to) climate It could mean a changed approach impact on you and your organisation, change are high on the political, to insurance, air transport quotas and an impact which could be up to 20% of business and media agendas. Many investment in water resources. And that’s global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), organisations need to know how it just the start. according to the 2006 Stern Review on will affect them, their policies and the the Economics of Climate Change, if decisions they make today. Climate A world-leading authority on climate action is delayed. change predictions from the Met Office change we, at the Met Office, have the Hadley Centre are used by the UK expert knowledge and experience to For all organisations, making the right Government to make policy decisions guide you through. Uniquely, we have decisions about climate change impacts about mitigation and adaptation. world-class knowledge in both weather will safeguard success in the future. Climate change is with us 01 What is climate change? To understand climate change, it’s important to recognise the difference between weather and climate. Weather is the variation of temperature, precipitation and wind, which change hour by hour and day by day. The climate is the average weather and its variations across decades. Climate change is the long-term change in climate and is usually used in the context of man-made climate change. 02 What is climate change? TOP 10 ClimaTe FaCTS 1. 2. 3. The world’s ten warmest years have Over the last 100 years, the global Since 1960, the mean temperature in occurred since 1995. mean temperature has risen by more central England has risen by around 1°C. than 0.7°C. 4. 5. 6. During the European heatwave of 20–30% of assessed species are likely By the 2020s it is estimated that 75–250 August 2003 there were around 35,000 to be at increased risk of extinction million people in Africa will experience deaths due to the extreme heat. if the global mean temperature rises increased water shortages due to climate 1.5–2.5°C above 1990 levels. change. 7. 8. 9. Arctic summer sea-ice cover has shrunk According to Oxfam there could be over Sea levels around the UK have risen by by around ¹⁄5 over the last 30 years. 150 million environmental refugees by about 10cm since 1900 and the rise in 2050, largely due to climate change. recent decades has been faster than previously observed. 10. Floods in the UK during 2007 caused damage estimated at £3 billion. As our climate changes, heavy rainfall events are expected more often in the UK. “The Met Office Hadley Centre has created an international reputation in climate modelling… they have the full range of measurements going back to 1864, so there is a long tradition there.” Professor Sir David King Planet Earth magazine Autumn 2006 What is climate change? 03 CASE STUDY 6 CASE STUDY 1 What the Met Office did Impacts on the energy industry Sweating Hot Dehydrated Healthy Exhausted Dead Heat stroke Critically ill Our research THE PROBLEM We provide health Climate change could have a serious impact on the forecasts to the National energy industry. National Grid, EDF Energy and E.ON-UK Health Service (NHS) and needed critical advice to understand and prepare for the at-risk groups whenever threats and opportunities ahead. heat poses a threat to human health. Our fIndingS As our climate changes, extreme heatwaves are expected OBJECTIVES to become more commonplace, including in the UK, with variation possible from one year to the next. 1. 2. 3. Our advice RISK IMPACT PLAN Studies have shown that a significant rise in heat-related Identify risks Assess the Predict future illnesses occurs when excessive and prioritise impact of changes in heat lasts more than two days. action. climate change demand for gas Our advice to the NHS means that across the and electricity. preventative measures can be industry. taken. CASE STUDY 1 CASE STUDY 6 What the Met Office did Impacts on public health Sweating Hot Dehydrated Healthy Exhausted Dead Heat stroke Critically ill OUR RESEARCH There’s more to We looked in detail at the ‘feeling under the high-level risks and other weather’ than most impacts of climate change on people realise. the generation, transmission, demand and supply of energy. This pioneering study led to further projects. DANGER The big picture For instance, heat can kill WE are helping the EnergY Industry by: by pushing the human body beyond its limits. 1. 2. 3. The detail DETAIL GUIDE RESPOND The Met Office helps healthcare Working on Agreeing the Ensuring professionals protect the most a follow-up way to set a targeted vulnerable to these effects, project to guidelines response to particularly the elderly and explore specific for the industry. the threats and very young. issues in detail. opportunities that emerge. 1. Sunlight passes through 2. Infrared Radiation (IR) is 3. But some IR is trapped the atmosphere and given off by the earth. Most by gases in the air and warms the earth. IR escapes to outer space this reduces the and cools the earth. cooling effect. The greenhouse effect The scienCe The greenhOuSe effect Is ClimaTe Change naTural? The earth is warmed mainly by visible Clouds and greenhouse gases act as There is natural variability in the climate. light from the sun, which the earth’s filters and soak up some of the infrared UK summers can be hotter or cooler, surface radiates back into space as and heat, acting like a natural blanket winters colder or milder. These infrared radiation. Whereas most warming the earth. Without this variations may persist from year to year sunlight travels straight through the greenhouse effect, most of the sun’s or from decade to decade. But in the last atmosphere, much of the infrared heat would escape back into space century, our dependency on fossil fuels radiation is absorbed by atmospheric and the earth would be at least 30°C for energy and changes in agricultural gases (greenhouse gases) – principally cooler – too cold to sustain human practices have increased greenhouse water vapour and carbon dioxide (CO2). life. Human activities have increased gas concentrations in the atmosphere Some is then re-radiated back to the greenhouse gases and heat trapped in to well above natural levels, warming earth’s surface causing it to warm. the atmosphere to unprecedented levels the earth’s surface even further. As a This is known as the greenhouse effect. and CO2 is the main contributor. result, by the middle of this century, with continued emissions, this warming effect is likely to be more marked than in the last 100,000 years. 04 What is climate change? iS iT REALLY DOWn TO How do We know? Is There Proof? OUR CO2 emissiOnS? Scientists have studied the climate The IPCC was formed in 1988 by the In the last century we have seen and predicted its effects for many World Meteorological Organization the amount of CO2 rise to levels years. They see serious changes and the United Nations Environment unprecedented in the past 600,000 ahead. We, at the Met Office, Programme. Its task is to take all the years. Evidence shows that about half measure temperature changes via scientific research and draw together of the CO2 caused by human activity weather stations on land and ships, the worldwide authoritative consensus is still in the atmosphere (the rest is ocean buoys and satellites. Scientists on climate change. It involves hundreds dissolved in the oceans and absorbed by have also used data on the thickness of scientists around the world and the plants and soils). of tree rings, air bubbles trapped in Met Office is a major contributor. Its ice cores and ocean sediments to study latest report states that warming of climates before measurements were the planet is now unequivocal and available. indisputable. The Met Office with the University of It also states that the scale and pattern of East Anglia also maintains and tracks recent changes in our climate can only the global mean temperature record, be explained if we include the effects of which is used in critical reports such as man-made greenhouse gases as well as the recent UN fourth assessment report natural causes.
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