IMPARTIAL EVIDENCE CREATIVE MINDS INSPIRED COLLABORATIONS World-leading science Embracing new Generating new ideas technology

Original text for editing puposes Barometer delete on final doc Issue 22 www.metoffice.gov.uk magazine

TECHNOLOGY IDEAS VISION NEW THINKING RESEARCH CREATIVITY SKILLS GLOBAL LINKS CREATE BUILD KNOWLEDGE CHANGING BEHAVIOUR STIMULATE MORE BENEFITS TO BUSINESSES RESEARCH INNOVATION COLLABORATION VISION HARNESSING SKILLS POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT LEARNING IDEAS CREATIVITY GROWTH NEW THINKING CONSULTING IDEAS WEATHER VISION SKILLS TOOLS WORLD ENVIRONMENT INVENTION TECHNOLOGY ACADEMY RESEARCH 1  Welcome

understanding of extreme weather events. The collaboration theme that’s supported by our diverse BIS links Smart also flows strongly through the new Climate Programme (see page 9) — an initiative designed to build on the UK’s climate capability by bringing together the best minds from science, Government and industry. Kirstine Dale, our Head of International Services and Climate Services for Government, explains how the programme will drive joined up thinking thinking to underpin the UK’s climate capability over the next three years to 2015. Sharp, creative minds have again been In post from September 1st, new Met Office Chairman hard at work in three other fascinating Greg Clarke brings fresh perspectives at a time when areas covered in this Barometer: Wind energy is explored through a guest innovation and ideas have never been more important article (see page 15) by Ian Burrow, Head for the organisation’s future success. of Agriculture and at NatWest. Ian discusses how the Met Office is working with the bank to help By working at the forefront of what is repeatable experiments and then investors make the most of the wind Introducing possible, we are enabling more people exploited to solve problems. So it’s energy opportunity. to access our advice and services, fitting that we’re now owned by the Greg Clarke helping the UK to become more Department for Business, Innovation Growers’ Nation is an exciting new resilient, competitive and sustainable. & Skills (BIS), an arrangement that app developed by a Met Office team encourages bold new thinking across (see page 17) which cleverly combines • Former Chief Executive of My interest in science goes way back industries. location, soil, climate and growing data FTSE 20 company Cable and — well beyond the moment when I to help anyone aiming to grow their Wireless Communications PLC chose management over physics for my Our feature on innovation and own produce. and ASX 50-listed Lend Lease degree. But it’s a passion that’s stayed invention in this edition of Barometer Corporation of Australia with me throughout my career running (see page 7) explores this theme with Finally, a feature on flood forecasting multinational public companies — Caroline Griffiths, Head of Innovation reviews the ongoing success of the Flood • Chairman of the Football crystallising during the seven years at EDF Energy, one of the Met Office’s Forecasting Centre following integration League since 2010 I was managing Lend Lease Corporation clients. Caroline shares her thoughts of Met Office and • Non-executive director for in Australia from 2002 to 2009. on how EDF is learning from us — and resources. organisations including BUPA, we’re learning from them. It was then that I became deeply Like me, I hope you’ll enjoy discovering T-Mobile and MTN South Africa involved with understanding the impact An accompanying feature on the more about the vital work of the Met • Honours degree in Business of weather on the built environment in ThinkUP initiative (see page 11), Office through these and other stories Studies; MBA from Cass general and the company’s construction investigates how a Met Office team is in this 22nd edition of Barometer. I look Business School, London division in particular. Joining the Met helping to support an innovation forward to my learning journey in the Office as Chairman now gives me a culture — working with EDF Energy, the months to come — and the chance to • Greg is married with four unique opportunity to support a world- Environment Agency, University of support a unique organisation in the daughters, loves golf and class organisation tackle some of the Exeter Business School, BIS and others. years ahead. football — and is a lifelong fan, biggest issues our planet will face over as well as former Chairman, Our piece on the ‘science of attribution’ the next 10, 20, 30 years. Barometer is also available online at of Leicester City (see page 19) then brings the www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer New ideas are pivotal to good science innovation concept to life through an — theories that can be verified through example of science that’s adding to our www.metoffice.gov.uk  Welcome 2

In this issue

News and updates Features People

03 In brief 04 Key weather events 15 Supporting renewable 13 Our people Water intelligence From one extreme to another energy Will Lang, Chief Hydrometeorologist Working with NatWest of the Flood Forecasting Centre Virtual learning 07 Putting our heads together Staying one step ahead Working with EDF Energy 17 Grow your own 20 Science profile A new science-based app Dr Peter Stott, Scientific Strategic 21 The Climate Science Research Head for Climate Monitoring and Partnership 09 Delivering world-leading science Attribution The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 22 Celebrity weather Monty Halls 11 ThinkUP Innovation at the Met Office Science

19 Science focus Extreme weather: an attribution perspective

Barometer is a controlled circulation magazine For any queries about Met Office products or distributed free of charge to decision-makers in services, contact our Customer Centre (24 hrs): government, science and commerce, for whom [email protected] weather and climate information has an impact. Tel: 0870 900 0100 Product information is correct at the time of Fax: 0870 900 5050 publication but may be subject to change. From outside the UK: Tel: +44 (0)1392 885680 The Barometer back catalogue is available online Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 at www.metoffice.gov.uk where readers can also www.metoffice.gov.uk complete a subscription form. © Crown copyright 2012 12/0393 For queries about Barometer contact Met Office and the Met Office logo Jon Stanford, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, are registered trademarks Devon, EX1 3PB, UK 3  In brief

Water intelligence Virtual learning Staying one step ahead We are working closely with the water Met Office College This winter we are industry to launch a suite of innovative Online, MOCO, a virtual working with the weather intelligence models. learning environment Department of Health accessed via the web, and the Health Protection For the water industry, operational and financial has been developed for Agency to provide a Cold performance is closely linked to weather conditions. customers of the Met Weather Alert service. As is predicted to increase the Office College. Each year, around 27,000 likelihood of weather extremes, together with the The new interactive more people die during additional pressure on water resources, our forecasts website contains different winter in England when are becoming ever more important. resources and activities compared to non-winter To better anticipate the effect of weather across including e-learning months. the water distribution network, we are combining modules, videos, PDFs, questionnaires, chat rooms The introduction of the Cold Weather Alert service our forecasting expertise with industry specific and quizzes. last winter as part of the Cold Weather Plan has knowledge of companies like Thames Water. The Some MOCO content is available to all, but after been warmly welcomed by public health and result is new intelligence models that are designed registration, customers can select and pay online emergency responders across the country. to improve understanding of the impacts of the for single course licences. The site is initially being weather on pipe leakage and burst, as well as The purpose of the Cold Weather Plan is to avoid made available to the offshore oil and gas market demand and seasonal night use. the dangers of severe winter weather. It increases and the first course on the site is for Offshore resilience by raising public awareness and Within the water industry there is a move from Met Observers. encouraging those in contact with people most at requiring post-event analysis, to wanting more More e-learning courses will be developed to risk from cold weather to take action. proactive impact-based forecast services. As complement our existing portfolio of courses. Stephen Herndlhofer, Manager of Risk & Analytics The Cold Weather Alert service operates in England MOCO will also start to be integrated into all at Yorkshire Water describes, “The risk from from 1 November to 31 March, in association with classroom courses with resources being made extreme weather to the operational and financial the Department of Health. Met Office alerts are sent available online for delegates to access before, performance of our business, as evidenced by to the Health Protection Agency and NHS Trusts. during and after attending courses. recent events, does appear to be increasing.” They are also featured on our website and via our There are plans to integrate web conferencing Twitter feed. into the site so that live training can be delivered Find out more about the Cold Weather Alert service at remotely. This will be particularly useful for www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert international capacity building projects, where delegate travel is prohibitively expensive.

Access MOCO at https://elearning.metoffice.gov.uk/ www.metoffice.gov.uk  Key weather events 4

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50 Rainfall anomalies for 2012 – shown as a percentage of 1981–2010 average (%) UK England Wales Scotland N Ireland 25

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Graph showing how rainfall this summer was often at much higher levels compared to the last three decades.

Despite it being the wettest summer in 100 years, the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games gave From one us something to smile about. Wet summer

In June, July and August, 370.7 mm of rain fell across the UK, making it the second wettest summer on record since the 384.4 mm of rain which fell in the summer of 1912. These totals followed a record wet extreme April, and an April to June period that was also the wettest recorded in the UK. August was the driest and sunniest of the summer months across the UK with 109.5 mm of rain and 154 hours of sunshine. The mean temperature for August was 15.3 °C, in a month that also saw one of to another the hottest days of the year, as it reached 32.4 °C at Cavendish, Suffolk on the 18th. 5  Key weather events

370.7mm 154 hrs 13.9 °C Record summer rainfall August sunshine Cool mean summer temperature

Summer 2012 was also one of the dullest summers on Unsettling experience It was the second wettest summer on record in record with just 413 hours of sunshine. This makes it During June, July and August, unsettled weather was England, third wettest in Wales, eighth in Northern the dullest summer since 1987 when the UK saw only never far from the UK. Movements in the track of the Ireland, and the sixth wettest in Scotland. In terms of 402 hours of sunshine. To complete the disappointing jet stream, a narrow band of fast flowing westerly sunshine it was the fourth dullest summer in England, picture, it was also a relatively cool summer with a winds high in the atmosphere, contributed to the the fifth dullest in Wales, ninth in Scotland and the mean temperature of 13.9 °C, some 0.4 °C below wet weather over the UK. This led to periods of heavy 15th in Northern Ireland. the long term average. Despite this it was a little and prolonged rain, as well as short but exceptionally warmer than the summer of 2011 which saw a mean heavy thundery downpours interspersed only with temperature of only 13.7 °C. brief warm sunny spells.

Our forecasts received widespread praise from event organsiers and competitors alike.

Our forecasts received widespread praise from event organisers and competitors alike. Rod Carr, London 2012 Field of Play Manager at Weymouth and Portland, where the Olympic sailing events were held, praised our forecast services, commenting: “The Met Office team was first class — not only in the technical accuracy of the forecasts, but also the quality of the daily briefings and ability to engage meaningfully with the Race Management Teams. The International Sailing Federation and several National Team Leaders were also very complimentary about the forecast service, with several saying it was the best met service they had ever experienced at a Games.” First-class forecasts Highly trained and experienced Met Office forecasters Olympic success with an understanding of the sports they were forecasting for worked alongside Olympic and Thankfully, the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Paralympic Games organisers not only at Weymouth Games were held under largely clear skies. Looking and Portland, but also at Eton Dorney and London. back at the successful summer of sport, the opening Our forecasters provided round-the-clock support and and closing ceremonies provided impressive and advice on weather conditions throughout the Games. mainly dry events, brightening up the otherwise dull, wet summer weather. It was our responsibility Cora Zillich, Venue Media Manager at the Eton to provide forecasts to the London 2012 Olympic Dorney rowing venue, said: “Here at Eton Dorney we and Paralympic Games organisers, athletes, coaches, have worked very closely with colleagues at the Met spectators and those responsible for transporting and Office to support the race scheduling. The advice we ensuring the safety of huge numbers of visitors. received was absolutely spot on.” www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 6

“The Met Office team was first class — not only in the technical accuracy of the forecasts, but also the quality of the daily briefings and ability to engage meaningfully with the Race Management Teams.”

During the Olympics we used cutting edge technology in our operational forecasting to help improve the accuracy of forecasting for small-scale weather features like showers. This involved using a much higher resolution version of the Met Office forecast model which is used to simulate what the atmosphere, and weather, will do next. Now, some of the specific forecasting developments such as the high-resolution forecast models that were used and tested throughout the Olympics will be further refined so that they can be used in the future, leaving a legacy that will benefit the UK well after the Olympic and Paralympic Games are over.

Find out more about how we supported the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games at www.metoffice.gov.uk/olympics/london-2012 7  Feature

EDF Energy generates around one fifth in which people can think differently, of the UK’s electricity, employs 15,000 enabling them to drive the business people and is the country’s largest forward.” low-carbon energy producer. The “It’s about identifying the differences company has a constant need for Putting between what we’re doing today and accurate weather information to help it what we need to do tomorrow,” says predict energy demand within the UK Caroline. “It’s also about recognising and protect valuable assets. the importance of the innovation and “What’s interesting is that we and entrepreneurial skill set — something our heads the Met Office face similar challenges,” that’s often underestimated.” explains EDF Energy Innovation No time like the present Manager for Business-to-Business, But while innovation is a popular buzz Caroline Griffiths. word, it also inspires appetite and fear “We each have lots of talented in equal measure. How do you justify people whose job is to come up with the resources needed to innovate in a together creative, working solutions to drive tough commercial climate when it’s our companies forward, so trying tempting to ‘batten down the hatches’ to capture and track innovation is and hang on to what you have already? difficult. Both organisations also have As a key customer for weather services, EDF Energy is For Caroline, the argument is clear to meet the requirements of diverse cut: “There are plenty of studies that now partnering with the Met Office. The collaboration groups of people — working within a show that innovating in an economic clear framework of delivering value. is supporting an innovation culture that will benefit crisis helps businesses remain Our joint priority is to deliver against competitive so they can emerge on both organisations. our obligations to all stakeholders the other side. Hunkering down and commit to continuous innovation simply to maintain your position is not to better serve and anticipate our viable for large organisations in the customers’ needs.” longer term.” So while innovation is by no means Sharing best practice since 2011 new to both organisations, there are It’s this shared commitment to the plenty of opportunities for promoting it innovation concept that saw the EDF further. Caroline sees it as a vehicle by Energy-Met Office partnership take which evolution and transformation is off in 2011 — an arrangement that’s possible. “It helps us differentiate and resulted in a fertile exchange of ideas therefore reach our ambition to be the ever since. leading supplier of energy to British business. Innovation provides a space www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 8

EDF Energy is investing in its future In the same collaborative spirit, Met Rooms for improvement What next for the collaboration? and its people, building an innovative Office employees have taken part in While an online ideas repository is New ways of working innovatively will training environment for all EDF Energy several of EDF Energy’s innovation road something no innovative company continue to evolve, for example those employees due to open at the end shows and ‘away days’ and learnt from should be without, having the right inspired by jointly attended sessions of 2013. It will help further develop sharing best practice. physical space where people can push at the University of Exeter’s Innovation the skills needed for today and for the boundaries is equally important. and Entrepreneurial Directorate. Let it flow tomorrow — including innovation and Online forums will develop further to Caroline believes that one of the Again, both companies have been collaboration skills. encourage ring fenced areas where most important drivers for innovation sharing thoughts on the use of senior managers can better share ideas, Caroline considers that EDF Energy can is ‘openness’ — the ability of an dedicated rooms and areas where as well as interact with customers. benefit from embedding a framework organisation to hear the voices of staff can ‘think outside the box’ — for comparable to the Met Office’s its own staff, as well as that of its example the Met Office’s welcoming, “In terms of the partnership,” says ThinkUP Academy (see more on customers and marketplace. Creating brightly coloured ThinkUP room in Caroline, “we’ll continue to share the page 11). So, having seen the a forum for capturing ideas — and Exeter and a range of facilities across innovation journey and influence each advantages of a scheme first launched testing their viability — is therefore EDF Energy’s UK sites. other’s experience of it. And it’s not just in 2008 and also sent a number of its critical for making this happen. about what you see, but the integral Caroline Griffiths acknowledges their staff on ThinkUP courses, EDF Energy is layers that sit behind the organisation. Both businesses have automated vital role, highlighting the importance developing training and development It’s so much more than a brand online systems for enabling customers of an appropriate working environment specific to harnessing the innovative exercise.” and employees to put forward where employees spend most time and entrepreneurial skillset. suggestions and then assessing them. — their day-to-day work stations and This initiative flags up the importance At the Met Office it’s ‘Idea Street’, a offices. of innovation for the corporate website created by the Department “Psychology of the environment is key. culture,” says Caroline, “and the need for Business, Innovation and Skills. All spaces need to be appropriate for for the right tools and methodology for EDF Energy’s business to business the job,” says Caroline, “and they also innovating on a day to day basis. equivalent is the ‘Powering Innovation’ need the right tools and technologies It really puts the subject on the map.” web portal, with both partners working for recording and sharing ideas in the closely to make ideas management as working space as well as having specific effective as possible. rooms to encourage collaboration of ideas amongst groups.” 9  Feature

What are the causes of the recent trends in global warming? How resilient are vulnerable systems such as the Arctic and Amazon? And what impact is human activity having on extreme weather events? These are the kind of big questions the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme aims to tackle. Delivering world-leading science

Running from 2012–2015, the Met Office Hadley Success stories Centre Climate Programme — which is funded by Since the Met Office Hadley Centre’s inception in the Department of Energy and Climate Change 1990, the government funded research programme (DECC) and the Department for Environment, has gone from strength to strength — and produced Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) — is at the core of the some impressive results along the way. UK’s climate capability. It draws on the expertise of One such success was the delivery of the UK Climate scientists and academics in research institutes across Projections (UKCP09) — an analysis tool that the the country and even further afield. Its main purpose programme played a central role in developing. It is summed up by Kirstine Dale, Head of Climate provides comprehensive climate projections and uses Programmes for Government at the Met Office: them to illustrate the potential range of changes the “It’s about providing government with the impartial UK could experience — and their likelihood. These scientific evidence they need to make decisions to are then broken down by geographical region. It’s help the country mitigate and adapt to the risks of the first time anywhere in the world that a product of climate variability and change.” this nature has been generated specifically to inform a risk-based approach to adaptation planning. In a But importantly, the programme not only delivers recent development, the Met Office is now using tools for mitigation — it also helps policy-makers results to examine how renewable energy systems, make the most of opportunities for economic growth such as wind power, might be optimised in a future in the context of a globally changing climate. And, in climate. addition to this, it helps maintain the UK’s position as a world-leader in climate science. www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 10

The flagship success of the programme has been the development of world-leading climate models, and the incorporation of important Earth system processes, to enable state-of-the-art analysis of long-term changes in global climate. A major focus is understanding potentially dangerous rapid climate change such as accelerated loss of Arctic sea-ice extent or the potential from rainforest die-back. Like a vast jigsaw, adding Earth system processes, such as ice-sheet dynamics and atmospheric chemistry helps create a much fuller view of our climate, how it has changed over time — and what it is likely to do in the future. This information provides key part of the evidence needed by government to plan and negotiate the UK’s role in global mitigation strategies. The programme is also key to the development of a system to produce global temperature predictions for the coming decade. ‘Decadal’ prediction sits The big issues facing on the challenging boundary between weather the Met Office Hadley forecasting and much longer-ranging climate projections. Although still very much a research Centre Climate area, the development of decadal prediction Programme today gives scientists the opportunity to improve their understanding of climate mechanisms which are • Monitoring the size of trends in important for predictions in both the near and long- temperature and other aspects of the term. This research will continue to develop, leading Earth system, and understanding their to improved predictions of the frequency of Atlantic causes. hurricanes. It has huge implications for certain global industries, such as shipping and, especially, • Understanding, in near-real time, how insurance. human activity is impacting the risk of extreme events. Historically such Finally one of the key strengths of the new analysis has taken years to complete. programme is the emphasis on knowledge integration. Led by Jason Lowe, Head of Mitigation • Providing long-term datasets and Advice at the Met Office, the Knowledge Integration climate models to support decision- team aims to better explain the science and address making on renewable energy the evidence needs of Government. In doing so deployment — from wind to wave, now it helps realise the value of Defra and DECC’s and in the future. investment in the underpinning climate capability • Quantifying the resilience of key by addressing the questions that enable policy systems — such as the Arctic and development. Amazon — to changes in climate. The future • Developing a world-leading Earth The 2012–2015 programme is already enjoying huge system model to include and improve success. As for Kirstine’s hopes for its future: “During the representation of important the programme we’re hoping to further develop processes such as the nitrogen cycle, and consolidate the science that underpins the glacier melt and permafrost. programme and in doing so strengthen and build the UK’s national climate capability,” she explains. “We • Providing future climate projections will also be looking for ways to engage with a wide on time and spatial scales needed to range of stakeholders, and opportunities to realise inform planning. the value of the underpinning science by delivering climate services not only for Defra and DECC, but for other organisations in the UK and beyond.” 11  Feature

A passion for innovation

ThinkUPInnovation has become an essential innovative. The team visited several brand leaders ingredient of modern business. But including Google and Vodafone to research the The conditions for aspects of their businesses that makes this possible. how does it happen and what can be innovation Thorough this learning, the team set about done to encourage it? implementing simple proven strategies to further accelerate the full creative potential of Met Office staff Gary and ThinkUP found that as well as treating for the benefit of our customers. innovation as a priority, many companies use It’s easy to agree that innovation really matters certain ‘magic ingredients’ to increase their “The exact mix of ingredients varies from company whatever business you’re in, but how does staff’s creative potential and opportunities for to company,” says Gary, “but it’s possible to identify innovation really happen? And what can be done innovation, including: a number of recurring themes, at the Met Office and to encourage and support staff in making it happen elsewhere and these are backed up by academic even more? These are some of the questions tackled A working environment that encourages informal research.” by Gary Holpin, founder of ThinkUP — a small team collaboration and the sharing of ideas. But the continuous drive for innovation at the Met dedicated to innovation at the Met Office. Office is about more than direct business growth, A way for staff to share and build their ideas with “I’ve always been interested in innovation, and he says. “Research has proven that companies that other staff and managers. my day job involves coming up with new product prioritise innovation are not only more successful, but concepts,” Gary explains. “ThinkUP began when I their staff have greater job satisfaction.” The opportunity and support to work on new was looking for product ideas and I asked myself: ideas unrelated to their day jobs within the Gary has found some companies particularly how can we come up with great ideas when we need working day. inspiring. “Visiting Google was great because as soon them? Is there more we can do?” as you walk through the door it’s obvious that they’ve The Met Office has innovation at its core, pioneering Encouraging behaviours that give ideas a chance achieved their success through making it easier for advances in weather and climate science since its to grow rather than killing them too soon. their staff to be innovative, like giving all engineers inception over 150 years ago. Today it continues one day per week to work on a pet project chosen by to embrace new technologies from solar panels Encouraging staff to constructively challenge the them and not their managers,” he says. powering supercomputers to embracing new ways things are done, and take the initiative in “Vodafone was also really interesting. They’ve platforms such as social media. finding better ways. embraced new technology to enable their staff to Recognising that continued improvement must be work anywhere, which means people aren’t at fixed Developing an understanding of how to tap into at the core of any highly innovative organisation, desks or stuck in meeting rooms all the time — they the creative abilities we all have, but many of us Gary and a small group of like-minded Met Office can work anywhere they need to, with the people have forgotten how to use effectively. staff decided to dedicate some time alongside their they need to work with.” day jobs to learn what makes certain companies so www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 12

The seeds of change

Since 2009, the ThinkUP team has trialled a range of tools and techniques with a focus on supporting creativity and innovation.

Idea Street An online ideas platform developed by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) for increasing public sector innovation. It gives staff a place to voice their ideas and How is this research influencing what happens at the comment on others’. The owners of the most Met Office? “We realise that for people to engage promising ideas are encouraged to take their ideas with innovation we need to understand what works forward. for us as an organisation,” he says. The ThinkUP Academy “We have a lot of learning from outside, but it needs A one-day introduction to creative thinking and to be relevant to us so we can support the innovation innovation, designed to equip staff with the basic we already have here. Our focus is also about tools for being more creative in their day-to-day individuals. We realise that innovation and creativity work. The scheme has been so successful that ThinkUP comes from individuals feeling confident and free to several high-profile customers and partners, explore their creativity and develop their ideas. including staff from Wrigley, EDF and BIS, have “We also recognise we have many different types of attended the course. people here who work and innovate in different ways, so we need to respect those differences, understand The ThinkTank them and tailor the tools and support we provide to A relaxed, dedicated work space to aid creative their particular requirements”. thinking, developed by ThinkUP. The team also works with property management and technical This autumn marks an important step change in teams at the Met Office to ensure planned ThinkUP and innovation at the Met Office. changes to the working environment meet with As Gary explains, “Many of the behaviours, tools innovation best practice. and techniques that have been shown to support individual innovation in organisations — and which Outreach ThinkUP has successfully introduced and germinated ThinkUP has developed close links with EDF, the at the Met Office — are now to be adopted as University of Exeter, the BIS innovation team and standard practice by the organisation as a whole. the South African Met Service, to but a few, We’re delighted that the Met Office has seen sufficient to share experiences and research with others value in what we’ve started, and wants to embrace working in the field of innovation. new innovation techniques and approaches.” Some ideas that started out as ThinkUP projects have since grown into real products, and are now beginning to generate commercial revenue. For the soil type and current seasonal conditions, has example, an online forecasting system called Weather achieved similar success. In fact, it recently won the Windows is already helping airport operations staff global NASA space apps challenge in the Galactic make more confident weather-sensitive planning Impact category (more on pages 17–18). decisions. Another, albeit smaller, success was a new As Gary puts it, “We don’t care where and how line of Met Office T-shirts designed by a Met Office innovation happens, we just want to help Met Office employee which have generated new commercial staff by supporting them or suggesting tools and revenue and some positive press coverage. techniques that they may not previously considered. Coming out of a “Hack Day” run independently ThinkUP sees any innovation across the Met Office as from ThinkUP is an app called Grower’s Nation that a positive thing for staff, the Met Office and most of determines what produce to grow and when, given all, our customers.” 13  Our people

Will Lang

With this summer being the UK’s wettest in 100 years, Chief Hydrometeorologist of the Met Office and the Environment Agency’s Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC), Will Lang, had his work cut out. But the whole team — which combines expertise from both the Met Office and the Environment Agency — rose to the challenge. Here, Will describes how the partnership works and the strides they’ve made in streamlining processes. Environment Agency flood map of Hebden Bridge Making a difference,

Following undergraduate and Lessening the impact the weather postgraduate degrees in mathematics has on flooding was one of the from Cambridge and a PhD in main reasons behind the FFC’s astrophysics from Bristol University, creation. In response to the 2007 Will Lang joined the Met Office floods that swept across the UK, the as a forecaster in 1998. He’s since independent Pitt Review made several progressed to become one of the recommendations. It recognised that managers of the FFC — a joint the Met Office weather warnings were Environment Agency and Met Office accurate and so were the Environment partnership that was formed in Agency’s river flood warnings. But as response to the 2007 floods. Will explains, “It also recognised that the process of predicting flooding The partnership aims to reduce the could be much more powerful if impact of flooding in England and there was collaboration between our Wales by giving government and two services. So in 2009 the flood emergency services the information forecasting partnership was set up.” they need to better respond to extreme weather events. But flooding is a For Will, the key has been creating complex phenomenon. Not only is it a common language between Met caused by water from the skies but also Office meteorologists and Environment by the way that rain behaves when Agency hydrologists — and a it hits the ground which, in turn, is consistent, authoritative message. affected by many factors including the Before the joint partnership, it was very type of ground, the gradient of the hard for government and emergency land, current water levels and more. services to act on weather forecasts And the team also has to consider other indicating a risk of flooding, because factors which can cause flooding, such they were really only half the story. as high tides and large waves along the coasts, or rising groundwater within layers of rock underground. www.metoffice.gov.uk  Our people 14

Making a difference, together

But as Will explains, “We’ve now organisations collaborate to produce a teleconference with the various But forecasting is just one part of created a team of hydrometeorologists the Flood Guidance Statement (FGS). responders, which enables them to what the team does. In addition who are experts in taking weather This gives Category 1 and 2 responders coordinate their efforts. “People tell to doing 12-hour shifts to provide forecasts and translating them into a (emergency services, local authorities, us that they can’t imagine how we did forecasts, the team also works on picture of flood risk for the whole of government agencies, utility and things before,” says Will. increasing the flood forecasting England and Wales tailored towards transport companies — plus health capabilities across both organisations. In fact, last June, when areas of the emergency response community. bodies) a daily, five day overview of As Will explains, “We act as scientists, Cumbria, Lancashire and West Together we provide the definitive flood risk in England and Wales. project managers — and advisers Yorkshire were about to have a month’s source for flood risk forecasting — and to coordinate and join together Since time is a critical factor, the FGS worth of rain in 24 hours, the FFC we communicate the right messages in improvements. We’re the glue.” service is designed to be as efficient was able to give advance warning of the right way” says Will. as possible. Every day, subscribers several days. This meant teams from The close working relationship has Strides in flood forecasting to the service receive colour-coded the Environment Agency and local been valuable on both sides. “Both Since the FFC was set up in 2009, alerts. Green is the lowest risk, and authorities were able to get to the here at the Met Office and at the great advances have been made in the red is the highest. When the alert scene before the floods arrived, clearing Environment Agency, we’ve learned service it provides. Based at the Met shows amber or red (i.e. medium or drains, testing defences and preparing that our capabilities are stronger, Office in Exeter, scientists from both high risk of flooding), it will trigger flood basins. As a result, the work of and have more impact, when joined the FFC was highly praised by the then together,” says Will. Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Mrs Caroline Spelman. In a statement she said, “I am very grateful for the diligent work of the Met Office and the Environment “We act as scientists, project managers – Agency staff in the Flood Forecasting Centre. Their forecasts, foresaw the and advisers to coordinate and join flood event unfolding and meant that together improvements. We’re the glue.” much work was possible in advance to lessen its impact.” Wind speed (m/s) N 15  Feature The Met Office’s Virtual Met MastTM makes it 20-24 possible to understand the feasibility of wind 16-20 projects by providing accurate data. 12-16 20% 8-12 15% 4-8 Ian Burrow, Head of Agriculture 0-4 and Renewable Energy at 10% NatWest, describes the bank’s collaboration with the Met 5% Office which he hopes will W E encourage more people to invest in wind energy.

Supporting S renewable energy

There is a real push to use sustainable between £20 billion and £25 billion as a low carbon renewable energy investment is a key concern. Of those energy as many farming and rural of new investment in the economy supply. The Department of Energy and surveyed in the NFU/NatWest report communities recognise the cost saving between 2013 and 2017. Climate Change (DECC) states that the 34% believed access to finance was and efficiency benefits of harnessing UK already has more offshore wind a barrier, whereas the number was Added to this, rising energy prices, the wind and solar power. A recent survey capacity than any other country in the less (24%) from those farmers already need for farming to reduce its carbon conducted by the National Farmers world. involved with solar and wind projects. footprint, and economic pressures Union (NFU) and NatWest revealed leading many farmers to consider All this highlights that there are plenty At NatWest, we have already taken that almost one third of farmers across diversification strategies, it is no of opportunities where turbines could steps to help those businesses that see England and Wales are currently surprise that the interest in renewable be deployed and we have found access to finance as a barrier. One of involved in some form of renewable energy is high. that the response from the farming the ways we have done this is by setting energy production and supply. community has been excellent. One in up specific training programmes for Significant contribution This surge in popularity is also down five farmers polled in the NFU/NatWest both our agriculture and renewable Onshore and offshore wind generation to the Government support and survey said they were producing clean energy managers to ensure they are can make a significant contribution the commercial potential of using electricity with one in eight using better placed to understand and help to the UK’s renewable energy target ‘green’ energy. Recent Government or generating renewable energy by clients. For our agricultural teams we of achieving 15% of energy from announcements on the changes to summer 2012. have created a training programme renewable energy projects by 2020 (as subsidies for renewable electricity claim accredited by the Chartered Banker set out by the EU Renewable Energy It is clear that farmers are taking notice they will create a multi-billion pound Institute that helps our agricultural Directive). With 40% of all wind energy of the developments in renewable boom for the British economy, driving managers to be more professional in in Europe blowing over the UK, it is energy and see a tangible benefit for growth and supporting jobs across the their day to day roles and keep abreast clear we have some of the best wind their business. However, for many country because it could incentivise of key industry issues. This will lead to resources in Europe that can be used people, securing the required financial www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 16

40% 34% 1/5 of all wind energy in of those surveyed believed farmers currently Europe blows over the UK access to finance was a barrier to producing clean electricity investment in renewables

a Certificate in Agricultural Finance, a wind speed data. This helps assess the new formal qualification undertaken profitability of a wind turbine project by all of our managers, expanding and ensure customers have all the their knowledge of EU policy, tax and right information from the start. We key sectors that make up the UK’s encourage farmers and landowners to agricultural market. It is also endorsed commission a Met Office report, called by the NFU. Virtual Met Mast™, which accurately defines how much wind there will In addition we have teamed up with be at specific locations. A Virtual Met Mark Newton, Head of Renewable Mast™ report can help anyone planning Energy at Fisher German, rural and a wind project to better establish the commercial property consultants, to right size turbine for their site and gives create a tailored training programme all parties a greater peace of mind for our renewable energy teams. The when assessing the risks associated NatWest Renewable Energy Financing with the investment. Programme is also accredited by the Chartered Banker Institute and ensures Our criteria for investment in wind our managers undertake continuous turbine installation is considered on professional development and a case by case basis. Using the Met understand issues facing customers Office’s Virtual Met Mast™ enables all looking to invest in renewable parties to understand the feasibility of energy. We want to fully support our a wind project and provides the most customers and both of these training accurate data. We have also introduced programmes highlight our continued new funding terms, including an commitment to provide a professional extension of the loan terms from 10 to service, as well as our aim to become 15 years following the announcement the bank of choice for agriculture and of reduction in the Government’s Feed renewable energy. in Tariff (FiT) and flexibility around full security cover with the ability to use the The training programmes were Government-backed Enterprise Finance launched last year on the back of Guarantee (EFG) loan scheme subject the bank’s announcement about the to terms and conditions. £50 million Renewable Energy Fund. We have provided nearly half of this All in all we are striving to make funding to support renewable energy investment in wind projects as straight projects and we are keen to fund more forward as possible. By working viable projects. together with the Met Office I hope to drive more investment and encourage Assessing profitability of wind more people to consider renewable turbine projects energy sources. In turn, that will help In a move to make access to this people grow their business, improve funding more readily available we their bottom line, reduce the risk have teamed up with the Met Office involved in renewable energy projects to provide access to the most accurate and cut costs. Find out more about Virtual Met Mast™ at www.metoffice.gov.uk/energy/vmm 17  Feature

Not everybody has green fingers. But a new science- The new project is called Growers’ concept based around helping people Nation. It’s the brainchild of Met make better use of the space in their based app, supported by the Met Office, aims to make Office Radar Products Scientist, Selena gardens, school grounds or local areas growing your own fruit and vegetables much easier. Georgiou, who started it with a team for growing their own produce. The of fellow scientists, app developers, idea was accepted and the Growers’ gardeners and a forestry school teacher Nation team was born. The original during the NASA Space Apps Challenge idea grew and it soon became clear earlier this year. This international that the benefits of an easy-to-use and competition challenged people to informative application could be very address societal issues of global wide ranging. importance — as well as those to do “An increasing number of people in the with space — during the course of one UK are showing an interest in growing weekend. their own produce, but some may be The Met Office led the European effort put off because they are new to it — and hosted one of the UK events. It was and find the idea of getting started too a great opportunity to use scientific complicated,” says Selena. weather and climate data in new and To help get people growing, the innovative ways. At the start of the team developed a global map weekend, NASA invited team leaders to Grow application that incorporates climate, pitch their ideas. Selena put forward a soil and weather data. It gives people information about the best time to sow, plant and harvest in their location — some of the main aspects that will your own encourage people to get started. The app is a real confidence-builder for people who have the passion, the energy and the time to grow produce — but had previously lacked the knowledge. www.metoffice.gov.uk  Feature 18

“An increasing number of people in the UK are showing an interest in growing More winning designs their own produce, but some may be put The NASA Space Apps Challenge was a meeting of great minds — and even greater ideas. Idea Street, off because they are new to it.” a platform that gives staff the opportunity to drive innovation, — represented the UK public sector. “With increasing food prices, it makes out in their back garden, to a primary Here are just a few of the other fantastic challenges total sense to make the best use of local school class who want to develop their created at the Met Office HQ: available land. And we also think that own growing plot.” • Hazard Map — Met Office Weather Impact Research Scientist, Jo Robbins if people can effectively grow produce Going beyond UK shores and Emma Bee, a Geographical Information Specialist who is on placement locally and sustainably, then it could Eventually the team plans to expand at the Met Office from the British Geological Survey, created a real-time have a positive impact on the number its reach to farmers in developing hazard mapping app, which harvests information from existing social of food air miles too,” says Selena. countries, where access to media and public data. Turning a dream into reality comprehensive, science-based advice • We Love Data — A team based at the University of Dundee developed a The project went on to win the NASA is hard to find. Unfortunately, in these device to warn hay fever and asthma sufferers when the next day’s pollen Space Apps Challenge’s ‘Galactic areas access to smartphones is scarce count was expected to be high. Impact’ prize at the international finals. too. So the team is exploring other And since then the enthusiastic team ways to disseminate this information, • Predict the Sky — Met Office Applications support and development has continued work on the project, such as SMS messaging and printed specialist, Emma Hibling, created an app to calculate when cloud with support and funding from the weekly digests. conditions were just right, so you can watch astronomical phenomena, Met Office. such as meteor showers. As Selena reflects, “It’s been an exciting “We’re really happy that the Met Office journey so far — but we’re still just at We Love Data also won at the regional Met Office event. In addition to will be supporting the project for six the beginning. Long-term, however, Growers’ Nation, the judges also agreed to sponsor and take forward two months. This means we can really get we’re hoping to make a real difference other challenges — Hazard Map has now linked up with ShelterBox, it off the ground and build a more both in the UK, and in other regions of an international disaster relief charity, and Predict the Sky with Mubaloo, robust app that we hope will be ready the world.” a mobile app development company. in March — just in time for the growing season,” says Selena. To find out more about these challenges, visit www.spaceappschallenge.org In addition to developing the app, the team is working towards creating related educational resources that will fit in with schools looking to start or maintain growing plot projects. As Selena explains, “The app will be a great free resource for a range of different people, from those starting 19  Science focus

Extreme One analogy of the effects of climate change on it also shows the risks associated with such natural extreme weather is with a cricketer who starts taking climate oscillations may be greater as a result of steroids and finds he hits twice as many sixes in the warming of the ocean and atmosphere,” says Peter. new season than he did during the previous one. For The BAMS publication generated a great deal of weather: any one of the sixes, a spectator near the boundary media interest which indicates there is a large rope would not know for sure whether the fact the demand for this kind of attribution information. But ball was looping over his head into the stands was it was only possible to examine six weather events of an attribution due to steroids. But it might be possible to attribute 2011 in time for the publication, showing that there the increased number of sixes to steroids. And, given is a long way to go before it is possible to provide that steroids have resulted in doubling the number scientifically robust information for the full range of of sixes, you would be able to make an attribution perspective extreme weather events that occur over the globe in statement; that, all other things being equal any one year. (such as the size and state of the pitch or weather conditions), the use of steroids had doubled the This is what Met Office scientists are endeavouring probability of that particular six. to address by developing an operational attribution system. This will be a continuous process of As Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring A wealth of observations collected combining observations and computer models of and Attribution at the Met Office, explains, “The the climate system. It will provide regular updates over the globe has shown convincingly job of attribution of extreme weather events is to on the extent to which the changing odds of recent determine whether human induced climate change that the climate is changing. But extreme weather events can be attributed to human- or natural climate variability, such as that due to induced climate change or naturally occurring although climate change is expected changing solar output or variations in Pacific Ocean climate variability. While sounding straightforward, temperatures associated with El Niño, have altered to lead to more extremes of weather this presents a huge scientific and computational the probability of a particular extreme weather including more heatwaves, challenge at the forefront of climate science and event.” and floods, does this mean that recent Met Office scientists are collaborating with other The idea of attributing recent extreme weather has attribution experts from around the world. events like the Texas or been trialled in a new publication published in the But, as Peter says, “If we don’t do this, we risk Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Thailand floods of 2011 can be blamed people making poor decisions based on past (BAMS) and co-edited by Dr Peter Stott of the Met on human emissions of greenhouse weather statistics which are no longer a reliable Office and Thomas Peterson of the US National guide to current weather risks with a changing gases? Or were they actually natural Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The climate. By attributing the changing odds of extreme report, published in July 2012, examines six extreme disasters that could have happened weather accurately, we hope we can avoid people weather events of 2011, including the Texas drought blaming extreme weather on the wrong causes and anyway? and Thailand floods, to put them into a climate help them improve their resilience to the vagaries perspective. the weather might throw at them.” Such questions are increasingly being asked, The report showed that the Texas drought, which prompted by the severe human and financial led to extensive crop damage and livestock losses, Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and consequences of extreme weather. Identifying a was associated with La Niña conditions in the Pacific Attribution works in the Met Office Hadley Centre. need for better information on the links between Ocean but that human induced climate change had See pages 9 and 10 to read more about the Met Office extreme weather and climate change, Met Office also increased its probability. “Such a conclusion Hadley Centre Climate Programme. scientists are leading the way in developing is important because while it underlines the need operational attribution services. for societies to deal with natural climate variability, www.metoffice.gov.uk  Science focus 20

The Met Office employs professionals and experts from the ‘background noise’ — the variability in the who are constantly expanding the boundaries of earth’s climate systems,” explains Peter. To help Science weather and climate prediction. Here we meet one them find and isolate the causes, Peter and his team of them... are developing datasets, which collect information both nationally and globally. These include temperature readings from the land’s surface, the profile atmosphere and the oceans — which help them monitor what’s happening on a monthly and yearly Take a heatwave, drought, flood or other extreme basis. weather event. Are they caused by man-made climate change or are they simply part of natural Real-time science fluctuations? These are the kinds of questions that Peter’s aspiration is to develop systems that will Peter Stott tries to answer. enable them to attribute the causes of extreme weather events in near real time — and then be After studying at Durham and Cambridge, Peter able to relate recent events to the odds of such completed a PhD at Imperial College on the events occurring in the future as well as calculating environmental consequences of the Chernobyl the likelihood of wetter, drier, warmer or colder nuclear incident — then went on to post-doctoral seasons. He believes they’re about three years from research on stratospheric at creating this system “Initiatives like case studies Edinburgh University. of recent extreme weather and the establishment Since then he has focused his efforts on investigating of an international group of scientists to advance how and why the climate varies. This is the science attribution science are a great step along that path”, of climate monitoring and attribution. At its heart he says. is the development of a comprehensive set of It’s this real-world aspect of the role that Peter observations on a wide range of elements and the loves. “We’re not just asking abstract questions. use of climate models to understand the changes It’s about why things are happening the way they that have been observed. Knowing more about are. The work we’re doing can help policymakers every element of the atmosphere and oceans is and communities plan and better cope with the important if we are to build a complete picture of weather.” our climate. A great deal has been achieved already. Peter has Dr Peter Stott played an instrumental role in the development Scientific Strategic Head of such ideas through major contributions to the processes of the Inter-governmental Panel on for Climate Monitoring and Climate Change and become one of the world’s most widely respected climate attribution scientists. Attribution Ultimately his work has led to the publication of the first ever attribution report in the 2011 State of the Climate report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Peter was a co-editor of this report aiming to establish whether extreme weather across the globe in 2011 was connected to changing climate conditions. Real-world science Herein lays the problem because not all extreme weather can be blamed on human activity. Firstly the climate varies naturally — weather is typically chaotic — and secondly there may be other reasons for natural disasters. The floods in Thailand last year were found to be due to factors unrelated to climate change including changes in the management of local river systems. It’s an especially tricky science. “The difficulty comes from trying to separate the causes of specific events, 21  In brief

Climate variability and change have huge impacts on food security, water availability, human health and social and economic infrastructures. This is especially evident in Africa where people are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate change. Through improved predictions of climate variability and change it’s possible to manage these impacts and sustainably reduce poverty in Africa. The partnership between the Department for International Development (DFID) and Met Office Hadley Centre is working, in consultation with

African stakeholders, to advance understanding of Shutterstock.com JANDI/ Attila current and future African climate, and bring new science into use. Consultation timing of the onset of Africa’s rainy seasons is crucial The CSRP objectives were refined in consultation to agriculture; if crops are planted too early ahead of with partners in Africa. The aim was to help identify the rains, seeds rot in the ground; if too late, the early research directions that would best contribute growing season is missed. Experimental forecasts towards enhancing the range and quality of climate of onset timing have been developed using the information available to users in Africa. Interviews Met Office’s seasonal forecast system and are being were held with regional climate organisations, trialled by climate centres in East, West and southern national meteorological and hydrological services, Africa. These forecasts are the first of their kind universities, non-governmental organisations, and can help African regional centres and weather Vadim Petrakov/Shutterstock.com Vadim government ministries and organisations acting on services improve predictions of rainy seasons, leading climate information to aid vulnerable communities. to increased agricultural output and food security. Consultations focused on requirements for monthly A new monthly-decadal system has been developed to decadal predictions — timescales of most practical and shows improved capability to predict rainfall and use in developing resilience to climate variability and Climate temperature averages over Africa out to five years change. ahead. This has enhanced potential to provide early The CSRP is enhancing the professional development warnings, for example, of drought or successive Science of African scientists by running training workshops drought, and adaptation advice. to help develop and disseminate new products Information on how man-made climate change based on CSRP research. In addition, eleven African drives extreme weather in Africa is essential to scientists have been awarded study fellowships to inform adaptation strategies, and can help avoid Research research African climate issues. This has helped to inappropriate and potentially expensive adaptation. advance the CSRP’s objectives and to strengthen the First results have focussed on the recent severe climate science base in Africa. drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and indicate Partnership Predictions for vulnerable regions that man-made climate change has had little impact A key focus of CSRP is advancing understanding on rainfall in the short-rains season in this region of African climate processes to improve their (October to November), but may have increased the The Climate Science Research representation in the Met Office Hadley Centre’s risk of drier-than-average conditions in the long-rains Partnership (CSRP) is working with HadGEM3 — leading to better season (March to May). predictions of climate for vulnerable regions of various African organisations to A key objective of the CSRP was to bring research into Africa. Key results include improved modelling practical use in Africa. This is now being achieved improve understanding and practical of rainfall in all the important sub-Saharan rainy through ongoing climate science workshops held seasons, enhanced understanding of the drivers of prediction of African climate to help in collaboration with African centres, as well as interannual variability in the West African Monsoon active participation in Africa’s Regional Climate alleviate poverty and a comprehensive assessment of the ability Outlook Forums and policy forums for climate and of present-day climate models to represent the development. important influences of the global oceans on African rainfall. Find out more about the CSRP at www.metoffice.gov.uk/csrp/ Early warning systems and adaptation planning are already being helped by the CSRP. For example, the www.metoffice.gov.uk  Celebrity weather 22

Growing up initially in Malta, the used by some of the local fishermen Monty Halls toddler Monty was never out of the he’s met. These include following water. A life-long interest in marine the movements of sandhoppers — biology followed, culminating in tiny amphipod crustaceans that can, him gaining a First Class degree in apparently, detect low-pressure the subject from the University of systems. The theory goes, if they move Plymouth at the age of 29 — having up the beach and into the village, already served eight years in the Royal a storm is brewing. Marines. The spirit of Climate concerns It was while studying at Plymouth that When it comes to Climate Change, he went on his first proper expedition Monty is in no doubt about its impact. to Belize to photograph a rare species “There have been some radical of crocodile. Inspired by the trip, changes this past ten years. Everything Monty set up his first company, Full seems out of kilter. Lambing happens adventure Circle Expeditions which, in turn, much earlier. And I’ve seen peregrine Monty Halls is best known for his adventure and wildlife programmes — attracted the interest of Channel 5 who chicks blown from their cliff top nests where his passion for the natural world has taken him across the globe ended up filming one of his round the by unseasonal easterly winds.” and deep into the oceans. With occupations as diverse as TV presenter, world trips. explorer, eco-tours leader, diving writer and marine biologist, it’s easy He also is dismayed at the devastation Extreme experiences to understand what a crucial role the weather must play in his work. of the coral reefs. One thing led to another and soon And why climate change concerns him so much. Monty was presenting natural history “They’re like the fountain of life — programmes, including Great Ocean super sensitive to any slight increase Adventures where he dived with Giant in water temperature and ocean Humboldt Squid — and BBC2’s Monty acidification. The coral’s delicate Hall’s Great Escape where he lived calcium carbonate skeleton is being on Scotland’s Western Isles for six fatally weakened. In fifty years time the months, recreating ancient crofting Great Barrier Reef could cease to exist.” techniques. Monty believes that action needs to Having such a close working be taken at a G20 level and that the relationship with the weather, it’s little world’s largest industrialised nations surprise he considers the elements can’t afford to wait to make significant

‘massively’ important when filming — reductions to CO2 levels. “The wiping especially when out at sea. out of thousands of coral species won’t just result in billions being “The viewer might be thinking — what lost in tourism; there will be huge a lovely sunny day for the crew. The economic problems for local fishing reality is, rain and wind above the communities.” surface causes big currents and limited visibility under water. You might be So what’s next for Monty? His sitting in the boat for weeks waiting for immediate plans are to continue with that ‘fair weather’ opportunity.” his current career — growing his Great Escapes business that consists of a In fact, coping with extreme conditions shop and training centre in Dartmouth. is an occupational hazard for Monty. He also has a new diving exploration Whether he’s rolling around on series planned. fishing boats in Force 9 gales, out on manoeuvres with the Marines It looks unlikely Monty will put his in northern Norway at -40 °C, or adventurous spirit to one side any surviving debilitating temperatures of time soon. In fact, when asked what 52 °C in California’s Mohave Desert. he would be doing if he had opted for a more routine occupation and To keep track of the weather Monty his response is “I’d enjoy skippering regularly uses forecasting websites. yachts — I can’t imagine doing But he’s also come across more something that didn’t involve the sea.” traditional methods, such as the ones Original text for editing puposes delete on final doc

TECHNOLOGY IDEAS VISION NEW THINKING RESEARCH CREATIVITY SKILLS Then, now... and beyond GLOBAL LINKS CREATE BUILD KNOWLEDGE Looking back at forecasting methods of 50 years ago, it’s amazing how things have CHANGING BEHAVIOUR STIMULATE changed. Back then, forecasters used hand drawn charts and manual observations. Now MORE BENEFITS TO BUSINESSES we use an IBM supercomputer which can do more than 100 trillion calculations a second. RESEARCH COLLABORATION With improved science and increased INNOVATION computing power, today’s four-day forecasts VISION are as accurate as one-day forecasts were HARNESSING SKILLS POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT LEARNING 30 years ago. However, our forecasters still IDEAS CREATIVITY GROWTH NEW THINKING CONSULTING IDEAS use their expertise to amend forecasts if necessary. WEATHER VISION SKILLS TOOLS WORLD Beyond the present day, computers help us understand the Earth’s climate, making ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGY ACADEMY RESEARCH forecasts decades into the future. This has INVENTION enabled scientists to understand more about climate change and its impacts. Forecast accuracy should increase further as technology advances, with Met Office scientists at the forefront of designing new forecasting solutions. So, it’ll be interesting to see how we’re forecasting the weather 50 years from now.

The Met Office Library and Archive contain a wealth of information on forecasting methods over the years. Find out more at www.metoffice.gov.uk/ learning/library