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Pricing: Rarely As It Seems 30 August 2016 Europe/United Kingdom Equity Research Food Retail Pricing: Rarely as it seems Research Analysts THEME Stewart McGuire, CFA 44 20 7888 6531 [email protected] An in-depth look at UK pricing and inflation Dusan Milosavljevic 44 20 7888 7751 We have undertaken a broad analysis on product pricing and sourcing. Our [email protected] goal is twofold: address many of the inherent flaws found within traditional Specialist Sales: Lindsay Ireland pricing surveys, and contribute hard data to the ongoing debate regarding 44 20 7883 6895 [email protected] inflation after recent sterling weakness. Our analysis reveals the following: ■ We expect almost no impact from sterling devaluation: UK own label sourcing falls within a narrow range of 63% to 75% amongst the 7 major food retailers. These differences would narrow further once branded goods and non-food items are factored into the overall assortment. ■ Sterling weakness is unlikely to affect Aldi / Lidl growth: Both Aldi and Lidl are naturally hedged due to their British-based sourcing. Overall, both retailers came in slightly below the group average for UK sourcing, but both were in the top 3 in the important Meat and Produce categories. ■ Tesco appears most at risk from rising import costs: Tesco scored lowest on our UK-sourcing basket at 63% vs. the group average of 71%. However, Tesco is naturally hedged from sterling weakness due to its international operations (22% of group sales, 29% of EBIT). ■ The convenience premium is much higher than anticipated: Tesco and Sainsbury convenience store prices were between 4.4% and 8.7% higher than their supermarket prices. Furthermore, we see Sainsbury following a sophisticated pricing strategy that results in prices ~3% higher than Tesco. ■ Own brands remain a key battleground: Tesco's Farm Brands category is now the price leader at the low end, and we have seen little response from the competition. At the high-end, own brands are driving margin, with prices 3x more expensive than the cheapest own brand products. ■ Aldi and Lidl differentiation should concern competitors: Aldi's focus on own label gives it clear price leadership; Lidl's brand-heavy assortment places it below the mainstream grocers in pricing while offering a more complete assortment. ■ Potential Asda price cuts still overhang the sector: Our analysis shows Asda has lost its price leadership credentials. Poor performance and the recent CEO change suggest a tactical shift, at least. While price cuts may not regain material market share, collateral damage could be high. ■ National pricing remains firmly in place: We found strong evidence of national pricing across all retailers. We believe that regional pricing is the single most compelling strategic option available to the retailers, which has been proven effective by the French peers. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 30 August 2016 Key Charts Figure 1: UK own-label sourcing heat map Figure 2: Supermarket vs. convenience premiums Category TSCO SBRY MRW Asda WR Aldi Lidl £92.00 +2.7% Produce 37% 20% 34% 23% 45% 42% 40% £90.00 Beverages 61% 76% 53% 58% 76% 29% 6% £88.00 +8.7% Dry/Canned 64% 51% 37% 78% 66% 54% 50% £86.00 +4.4% Hhld/Pers Care 80% 80% 74% 74% 80% 0% 72% £84.00 Dairy 42% 81% 88% 81% 54% 79% 62% £82.00 Frozen 34% 100% 73% 91% 73% 80% 71% £80.00 Meat 80% 98% 90% 100% 93% 89% 93% £78.00 Bread / Bakery 100% 100% 100% 91% 100% 100% 62% £76.00 Sainsbury's Tesco Tesco Express Sainsbury's Co-op Waitrose Little Waitrose Overall 63% 76% 75% 71% 76% 67% 67% Superstore Local Source: Credit Suisse research Source: Credit Suisse research Figure 3: Tesco convenience vs. supermarket prices Figure 4: High-end own brand premiums 25% £25 e c i r p t £20 +1.9x e 20% k r +3.4x a Tesco: 16 items +3.1x m r with no premium e p vs. supermarket +3.0x +3.0x u s £15 o t 15% m u i m e r p £10 e c n 10% e i n e v n o C £5 5% £0 Low End High End Low End High End Low End High End Low End High End Low End High End 0% Tesco Sainsbury's Asda Waitrose Morrisons Source: Credit Suisse research Source: Credit Suisse research Figure 5: Large price gap, unchanged over time Figure 6: CPI and PPI trends 23% £1.45 900 15% Price Gap (LHS) implied GM impact (bps, LHS) Big 4 average price (RHS) 22% £1.40 Food CPI (3m-MA) Discounter average price (RHS) Food PPI (3m-MA) 600 10% 21% £1.35 20% £1.30 e c i p r 300 5% a P G e 19% £1.25 g e c a i r r e P 18% £1.20 v A 0 0% 17% £1.15 16% £1.10 -300 -5% 15% £1.05 -600 -10% 14% £1.00 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Nov 2013 Jul 2014 Mar 2015 Dec 2015 Aug 2016 Source: Kantar Worldpanel Source: ONS, Credit Suisse research Pricing: Rarely as it seems 2 30 August 2016 Introduction Numerous issues make relevant and accurate pricing analysis challenging, such as whether to price whole baskets vs. individual items, how to match products against each other (especially own brands, but also size and quality differentials), the relative importance of high-volume vs. low-volume items, and whether to (and how to) include price-matching schemes and promotions. There are also significant gaps in understanding pricing differentials between store formats, own label pricing and overall pricing strategy. Further difficulties arise when trying to incorporate the fickle nature of consumers who can (and do) change purchasing decisions mid-shop, reducing the value of using a fixed list of products at set quantities. With respect to sourcing, many products are sourced from multiple countries and sources may change seasonally. Mix effects, contract terms and potential currency hedging programs introduce further uncertainties when drawing conclusions regarding the impact of currency moves. To try to overcome some of these pitfalls, we accounted for several of the more obvious inconsistencies, such as matching goods in discounters against supermarket equivalents, normalising quantity sizes and carefully considering what products go into baskets, leading us to construct multiple baskets. Our goal was to address the following questions: Are there geographic pricing differences? For a large basket of staples, how do prices compare? What are the price differences between store formats? Does pricing variance change between product categories? How does our pricing compare to existing 3rd-party surveys? Where does Tesco's Farm Brands fit within competitors' own label? How do entry-level and high-end own label prices compare? How will cost of goods change based on product origins? Methodology One size does not fit all. We constructed 7 different, purpose-built baskets: (i) a large, "weekly shop" basket with 37 staple food items; (ii) a 41-item basket that covers key convenience items; (iii) a 20-item beer and wine basket; (iv) an own label basket focused on premium products; (v) a head-to-head basket for selected Tesco Farm Brands vs. lowest-priced competition; (vi) an "infrequent items" basket that we used to supplement our national pricing thesis; and (vii) an "origin" baskets that contains a high level of "imported" and Farm Brands goods. We tested the various baskets across 7 supermarkets and 2 online retailers, pricing the baskets on the same day with the same items and quantities. To test national pricing, we selected towns from the top and bottom earnings quartiles that were in close proximity to each other so we could survey all prices in a single day, minimising the chance for intraday price variation. Both actual and unit prices were recorded, which enabled us to normalise the data after the fact, facilitating basket comparison between retailers. Test shops were carried out to ensure the validity of the baskets and to ensure the logistics were feasible. Before we could embark on our analysis, we also needed to determine whether prices were actually stable across the entire store network. After parsing the data and seeing no variation in prices for either mainstream or lower-volume goods, we are convinced that national pricing still exists (see Appendix A for a full breakdown of our national pricing methodology). We maintain that regional or store-level pricing is the single-most compelling strategic option available to the retailers, which has been proven effective by the French peers in halting the expansion of hard discounters and in supporting margins, which remain materially higher than UK margins. Pricing: Rarely as it seems 3 30 August 2016 Part I: Pricing analysis The large basket We expected few surprises from the traditional "weekly shop" basket. We recognise that it is the basket with the highest potential for sampling error given the very broad assortment of goods found in a weekly shop compared to the small number of samples. That potential for sampling error is one of the reasons why we like the time series data published by the Grocer trade magazine – a different basket each week and the ability to smooth the data.
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