BURNING PLASMA Bringing a Star to Earth UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE For Public Release on Friday, September 26, 2003, 4:00pm Burning Plasma Assessment Committee Plasma Science Committee Board on Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE i THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Grant No. DE-AT01-02ER54676 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-0XXXX-X Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97-XXXXX Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE ii The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE iii BURNING PLASMA ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE JOHN F. AHEARNE, Sigma Xi Duke University, Co-chair RAYMOND FONCK, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Co-chair JOHN N. BAHCALL, Princeton University GORDON A. BAYM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign IRA B. BERNSTEIN, Yale University STEPHEN C. COWLEY, Imperial College London EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, SAIC WALTER GEKELMAN, University of California at Los Angeles JOSEPH HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc. WILLIAM M. NEVINS, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory RONALD R. PARKER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CLAUDIO PELLEGRINI, University of California at Los Angeles BURTON RICHTER, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center CLIFFORD M. SURKO, University of California at San Diego TONY S. TAYLOR, General Atomics MICHAEL A. ULRICKSON, Sandia National Laboratories MICHAEL C. ZARNSTORFF, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory ELLEN G. ZWEIBEL, University of Wisconsin at Madison Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy TIMOTHY I. MEYER, Study Director (from August 2003) MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Study Director (May 2002–July 2003) UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE iv PLASMA SCIENCE COMMITTEE THOMAS M. O’NEIL, University of California at San Diego, Chair MICHAEL S. BARNES, Applied Materials ALLEN BOOZER, Columbia University JOHN CARY, University of Colorado at Boulder CYNTHIA A. CATTELL, University of Minnesota CARY FOREST, University of Wisconsin, Madison WALTER GEKELMAN, University of California at Los Angeles MARK J. KUSHNER, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DAVID MEYERHOFER, University of Rochester CLAUDIO PELLEGRINI, University of California at Los Angeles DMITRI RYUTOV, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory STEWART J. ZWEBEN, Princeton University Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy TIMOTHY I. MEYER, Program Officer PAMELA A. LEWIS, Project Associate NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE v BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY BURTON RICHTER, Stanford University, Chair ANNEILA I. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology, Vice chair ELIHU ABRAHAMS, Rutgers State University JONATHAN BAGGER, Johns Hopkins University GORDON A. BAYM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM EATON, National Institutes of Health RAYMOND FONCK, University of Wisconsin at Madison WENDY L. FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories LAURA H. GREEN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign FRANCES HELLMAN, University of California at San Diego ERIC P. IPPEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology LINDA J. (LEE) MAGID, University of Tennessee at Knoxville THOMAS M. O'NEIL, University of California at San Diego JULIA M. PHILLIPS, Sandia National Laboratories JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University THOMAS N. THEIS, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center CARL E. WIEMAN, University of Colorado/JILA Staff DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer BRIAN D. DEWHURST, Research Associate TIMOTHY I. MEYER, Program Officer PAMELA A. LEWIS, Project Associate NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant VAN AN, Financial Associate UNEDITED PREPUBLICATION COPY: FINAL WORDING SUBJECT TO CHANGE vi Preface The goal of achieving a sustained thermonuclear fusion burn capable of generating power in some future reactor has been a long-term research goal for the United States and the global research community. In the last decade great strides have been made toward that goal leading the fusion research program to a decision point—are we ready to take the step of executing a burning plasma experiment, and how should that step be taken? Given the considerable federal investment over several decades, the fusion program has rightly been the subject of many reviews and assessments—by the National Research Council (NRC), the Department of Energy’s Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, and the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology—and has also been the subject of congressional review. Most recently the question has been whether the United States should include a burning plasma experiment—one in which at least fifty percent of the energy needed to sustain the fusion reaction is generated from within the plasma—in the Department of Energy’s magnetic fusion program as operated by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (OFES). A burning plasma experiment is a key scientific milestone on the road to the development of fusion power. The Burning Plasma Assessment Committee was established in July 2002 at the request of the DOE’s Office of Science.1 The committee was charged with assessing the importance of a burning plasma experimental program, the scientific and technical readiness to undertake a burning plasma experimental program, and the plan for the U.S. magnetic fusion burning plasma experimental program. It was asked to make recommendations on the program strategy aimed at maximizing the yield of scientific and technical understanding as the foundation for the future development of fusion as an energy source (see Appendix A for the full text of the task). The Burning Plasma Assessment Committee was established to conduct the latest in a series of NRC studies that have considered the direction of the U.S. fusion program over the last decade—the 1995 report Plasma Science: From Fundamental Research to Technological Applications2 and the 2001 report of the Fusion Science Assessment Committee (FUSAC),3 both of which provided vital background for the Burning Plasma Assessment Committee in carrying out this study. Plasma