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Assessing the Importance of Potholes in the Canadian Prairie Region Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

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Assessing the Importance of Potholes in the Canadian Prairie Region Under Future Climate Change Scenarios water Article Assessing the Importance of Potholes in the Canadian Prairie Region under Future Climate Change Scenarios Ameer Muhammad 1,*, Grey R. Evenson 2, Tricia A. Stadnyk 1 , Alaba Boluwade 3, Sanjeev Kumar Jha 4 and Paulin Coulibaly 5 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V6, Canada; [email protected] 2 Department of Water Environment, Agricultural and Biological Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; [email protected] 3 Department of Soils, Water & Agricultural Engineering College of Agricultural & Marine Sciences Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 34, Al-Khod 123, Oman; [email protected] 4 Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Bhopal, Bhauri Bypass Road, Bhauri, Bhopal 462066, Madhya Pradesh, India; [email protected] 5 Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 20 October 2018; Accepted: 12 November 2018; Published: 14 November 2018 Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada contains millions of small isolated wetlands and is unique to North America. The goods and services of these isolated wetlands are highly sensitive to variations in precipitation and temperature. We evaluated the flood proofing of isolated wetlands (pothole wetlands) under various climate change scenarios in the Upper Assiniboine River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack, a headwater catchment of the Lake of the Prairies in the Canadian portion of the PPR. A modified version of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to simulate projected streamflow under the potential impacts of climate change, along with changes to the distribution of pothole wetlands. Significant increases in winter streamflow (~200%) and decreases (~11%) in summer flow, driven by changes in future climates, were simulated. Simulated changes in streamflow resulting from pothole removal were between 55% for winter and 15% for summer, suggesting that climate will be the primary driver in the future hydrologic regime of the study region. This research serves as an important guide to the various stakeholder organizations involved in quantifying the aggregate impacts of pothole wetlands in the hydrology of the Canadian Prairie Region. Keywords: SWAT; wetlands; land use change; climate change; potholes; Canadian Prairies 1. Introduction The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) spans across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba in Canada and extends into North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Montana in the United States (US) (Figure1). The PPR is home to millions of isolated wetlands (i.e., pothole wetlands) that provide a range of ecosystem goods and services such as flood attenuation, groundwater recharge, biogeochemical processing, and regional diversity [1–6]. Despite the numerous benefits, nearly 70% of the wetlands have been lost in the PPR, with 84% of this loss attributed to agricultural development [6,7]. Water 2018, 10, 1657; doi:10.3390/w10111657 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2018, 10, 1657 2 of 19 Water 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20 Figure 1. LocationLocation map map of of the the Upper Upper Assiniboin Assiniboinee River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack: ( a)) Prairie Prairie Pothole Pothole Region of Northof AmericaNorth (PPR) (availableAmerica online at https://www.arcgis.com/home/user.html?user=(PPR) (available online at https://www.arcgis.com/home/usOharani54), (b) location of the Prairieer.html?user=Oharani54), Provinces (source: United (b States) location Geological of the Survey), Prairie and Provinces (c) study (source:watershed United showing States hydrometeorological Geological Survey), stations and (c (source:) study watershed Hydrologic showing Forecasting hydrometeorological and Coordination stationsManitoba (source: Infrastructure). Hydrologic Forecasting and Coordination Manitoba Infrastructure). Wetlands playplay aa majormajor rolerole inin watershed watershed health health [ 8[8–11–11]] and and can can be be seen seen as as an an integral integral component component of ofmuch much of of the the prairie prairie landscape. landscape. Wetlands Wetlands help help to mitigateto mitigate the the effects effects of climateof climate change change by reducingby reducing the theeffects effects of drought of drought and inundation.and inundation. During During wetter wette periods,r periods, they store they astore large a amount large amount of water, of helping water, helpingto reduce to peak reduce flood peak flows. flood In dry flows. periods, In they dry retain periods, water, they helping retain to rechargewater, helping groundwater to recharge [12–14]. groundwaterWetlands, however, [12–14]. due Wetlands, to their shallow however, nature, due areto highlytheir shallow susceptible nature, to changes are highly in climate susceptible and land to changesuse [4,7, 15in ].climate The Intergovernmental and land use [4,7,15]. Panel The on Inte Climatergovernmental change (IPCC), Panel on in itsClimate fifth assessmentchange (IPCC), report, in ◦ itsprojected fifth assessment a 2–5 C risereport, in the project surfaceed a temperature 2–5 °C rise in [16 the,17 surface]. Consequently, temperature it is [16,17]. very likely Consequently, that extreme it isprecipitation very likely eventsthat extreme will become precipitation more intense eventsand will frequent, become more altering intense the hydrologic and frequent, cycle altering and water the hydrologicavailability cycle in many and regions water availability [18,19]. in many regions [18,19]. Global CirculationCirculation Models Models (GCMs) (GCMs) have have been been considered considered effective effective tools intools exploring in exploring the physical the physicalprocesses processes of the earth’s of the surface earth’s atmospheric surface atmosp systemheric and system are widely and are utilized widely to gainutilized information to gain informationregarding historical, regarding current, historical, and futurecurrent, climates and future [20]. Based climates onestimates [20]. Based of futureon estimates population of future levels, populationeconomic activity, levels, economic and technological activity, and patterns technologi [16,21cal,22 patterns], the future [16,21,22], climate the change future climate scenarios change from scenariosGCMs are from used toGCMs assess are future used vulnerability to assess future attributed vulnerability to climate changeattributed [23]. to Numerous climate change studies have[23]. Numeroussuggested thatstudies climate have change suggested may that have climate a far more change significant may have impact a far more on the significant PPR of North impact America, on the PPRwhere of runoffNorth America, is mainly where driven runoff by seasonal is mainly snowmelt driven by [24 seasonal–28]. Most snowmelt regions [24–28]. of the Canadian Most regions Prairie of thePothole Canadian Region Prairie (CPPR) Pothole are projected Region (CPPR) to warm are over proj theected next to 60warm years over [29], the in particularnext 60 years the [29], central in particularCPPR, where the warmingcentral CPPR, is expected where towarming be more is pronounced expected to [be30 ],more thus pronounced potentially resulting[30], thus in potentially increased resultingdrought andin increased excessive drought moisture and risk excessive [31]. For moistu example,re risk snowfall [31]. inFor the example, CPPR accounts snowfall for in aboutthe CPPR 30% accountsof total annual for about precipitation 30% of total and annual produces precipitatio 80% orn moreand produces of the total 80% annual or mo surfacere of the runoff total annual [32,33]. surfaceChanges runoff in the [32,33]. amount Changes and seasonality in the amount of air temperatures and seasonality and of precipitation air temperatures could and significantly precipitation alter couldthe volume, significantly distribution, alter andthe volume, timing of distribution, snowfall, which and maytiming affect of thesnowfall, hydrology which of themay prairie. affect the hydrologyWhile of it the is essentialprairie. to consider the potential effects of climate change, several studies have alsoWhile highlighted it is essential the significance to consider of the land potential use change effects andof climate its vital change, role inseveral the hydrologystudies have of also the highlighted the significance of land use change and its vital role in the hydrology of the CPPR [6,15,34–36]. For example, the loss of wetland surface runoff in the prairie often drains into Water 2018, 10, 1657 3 of 19 CPPR [6,15,34–36]. For example, the loss of wetland surface runoff in the prairie often drains into depressions, forming wetlands or pothole wetlands. Pothole wetlands are closed basins that retain water for a longer duration due to their higher retention capacity [12,37–39], and do not contribute flow to streams under normal condition. However, during times of high runoff, pothole wetlands connect to each other and to streams via a fill-and-spill process [40], which results in a dynamic increase in the contributing area for runoff to streams [13,15]. Land use changes, in particular the loss of pothole wetlands mainly due to agricultural development, greatly alter hydrological processes, affecting both water quality and quantity. Thus, there is a pressing need to thoroughly investigate the coupled effect of climate and land use change on the hydrology of the CPPR. Watershed-scale
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