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Research of Marine Ferry Systems Based on Discretization Pf Research of Marine Ferry Systems Based on Discretization pf Processes and Simulation Ferry Market Based on CIRCOS Intensity Graph Istraživanje sustavầ morskih trajekata temeljem procesa diskretizacije i simulacije tržišta trajekata na osnovi CIRCOS grafa intenziteta Srećko Krile Nikolai Maiorov Vladimir Fetisov University of Dubrovnik Saint-Petersburg State University of Saint-Petersburg State University of Electrical Engineering and Aerospace Instrumentation Aerospace Instrumentation Computing Department Department of system analysis and logistics Saint-Petersburg, Russia e-mail: [email protected] Saint-Petersburg, Russia e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] DOI 10.17818/NM/2020/1.7 UDK 629.541.2:656.66 Preliminary communication / Prethodno priopćenje Paper accepted / Rukopis primljen: 7. 1. 2020. Summary There has been a significant increase in the role of sea ferry services today as well as a significant KEY WORDS increase in the number of ferry vessels and passenger flow, which requires the development of new practical forecasting methods. The article proposes a new approach to forecasting, mathematical model which is based on the integrated interaction of the systems «passenger sea port - cruise or ferry simulation lines». This research focused on the regions of the Adriatic and the Baltic Sea and the existing ferry network network of cruise and ferry line routes. When studying this system, it was justified to use a cruise network new mathematical model based on practical simulation and models of the theory of discrete transport hub processes and systems. The proposed model is complemented by a discretization-based study marine passenger port based on the Kotelnikov´s theorem. To reflect the dynamics of changes in such a system, it is passenger intensity proposed to use new diagrams of the intensity represented by circos graphs (diagrams). The ferry line article discusses the practical importance of using new circos intensity graphs of sections to planning study the operation of the «marine terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems based on real forecast data on the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Based on the simulation results, a new system of corrective interpolation actions is proposed to improve the management of marine terminals. It presents new results which can increase the accuracy of the planning and decision-making process in predicting and planning the route network based on the research of passenger traffic between the «sea terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems. Sažetak Danas postoji značajan porast uloge pomorskih trajektnih usluga, a jednako tako i porast broja KLJUČNE RIJEČI trajekata i putničkoga prometa, koji zahtijeva razvoj novih praktičnih metoda predviđanja. Ovaj članak predlaže novi pristup predviđanjima, koji se temelji na integriranoj interakciji sustava putničke matematički model pomorske luke – broda za kružno putovanje ili trajekta. Ovo istraživanje usredotočilo se na područja simulacija Jadranskoga i Baltičkoga mora i postojeću mrežu ruta brodova za kružna putovanja i trajekata. mreža trajekata Kada se proučava ovaj sustav, pokazalo se opravdanim koristiti novi matematički model temeljen na mreža brodova za kružna putovanja praktičnoj simulaciji i modelima teorije diskretnih procesa i sustava. Predloženi model nadopunjen je prijevozni hub studijom koja se temelji na diskretnim procesima i sustavima na osnovi Kotelnikova teorema. Da bi se morska putnička luka raspoznala dinamika promjena u takvome sustavu, predloženo je koristiti nove dijagrame intenziteta, intenzitet putnika koji su predstavljeni CIRCOS grafovima (dijagramamima). Članak se bavi praktičnom važnosti trajektna linija, korištenja novih CIRCOS grafova intenziteta odjeljaka da bi se proučilo djelovanje „pomorskoga planiranje terminala – brodova za kružna putovanja ili trajekata“ sustava temeljenih na stvarnim podatcima o predviđanje Baltičkome i Jadranskome moru. Na temelju simuliranih rezultata predlaže se novi sustav korektivnih interpolacija djelovanja kako bi se poboljšalo upravljanje pomorskima terminalima. Predstavljaju se novi rezultati koji mogu povećati preciznost planiranja i proces odlučivanja u predviđanju i planiranju mreže ruta, temeljene na istraživanju sustava putničkoga prijevoza među „brodovima za kružna putovanja ili trajektnim linijama“ (pomorski terminali). 1. INTRODUCTION / Uvod Marine passenger ports and terminals are integral part of the historically established terminals near the historical centers of transport complex of any region. They play a significant role famous cities themselves. But today the segment of passenger in the processes of passenger service and transportation and shipping has increased significantly. Under the influence of the are a link in the system as «ferry company - terminal - city external environment, two trends emerged in the development system». These processes of formation have strong influence on of sea passenger terminals: “Naše more” 67(1)/2020., pp. 45-52 45 Figure1 Cruise market potential, mln. people (according to CINN 2018 EUROPE. European Cruise Lines) Slika 1. Tržište brodova za kružna putovanja u milijunima putnika (prema CINN 2018 EUROPE. European Cruise Lines) 1. trend of building large cruise liners; needed to serve the above traffic. 2. construction of new separate terminals and expansion of In view of the fact that it is very difficult to predict the ports to attract new passenger traffic; influence of the external environment on long-term traffic 3. changes in the route networks of ferry carrier companies, prediction of passenger terminals and the global market, it is entering new markets, including new ports and terminals proposed to use simulation modeling in the form of information located in the northern seas on a cruise. transport models [5,6]. These technologies must solve various So, this transport marine industry is in the process of forecasting problems based on real data and tasks of operational renovation, the construction of new marine terminals and the processes [7, 8]. Using simulation techniques, based on the modernization of existing terminals. To confirm these trends estimation of these parameters and a determination of the peak we can look at the forecast data on fig.1 shows (presents) the period for volumes of passengers can be made [8, p. 28]. From potential of the ferry and cruise transportation market until these estimates, the concepts for the layout and sizing of sea 2022 year [1,2]. Innovation refers to the construction of new terminal buildings, types of cruise and ferry ships, ships and terminals and changes in route networks. ground access facilities may be examined. There are different Today, the main objects of research can be: approaches to simulation methods in transport logistics. The 1. technological and organizational processes of a separate most suitable program on the market for creating transport sea passenger terminal; models is Anylogic. This article provides an intelligent method 2. technological and organizational processes of a cruise or based on discretization process and CIRCOS intensity graph . ferry company; 3. systems interaction of systems « marine ferry company - 2. MODELS AND METHODS FOR SIMULATION passenger port - city megalopolis». SYSTEM «MARINE PASSENGER TERMINAL- FERRY If the research of terminal processes leads to the solution of LINE» BASED ON DISCRETIZATION / Modeli i some problem of effective planning and organization, then the metode za simulacijski sustav „Pomorski putnički research of the interaction of systems requires the development terminal – trajektna linija“ temeljen na diskretizaciji of new dynamic models and methods. Especially such task Simulation modelling is very suitable tool for analyzing and is actual in forecasting of the development of the seaport/ optimizing dynamic processes as we have in traffic forecasting. terminal to preserve and increase passenger traffic and the Specially it starts to be powerful tool when mathematical intensity of cruise and ferry ships [3,4]. optimization of very complex systems becomes infeasible, The development of the various components of the marine and when our task is based on experiments in real systems passenger port system firmly depends on significant increas that is too expensive, time consuming, or dangerous. The aim of all activities and their quality level which shuold be forecast of simulation is to facilitate the objective decision making by in the future periods. The main goal of any marine passenger means of dynamic analysis and to enable safely plan operations port is to be effective and to ensure safety process of passenger to managers. For scientific research of marine passenger transport by ferry or cruise ship. processes in transport we mostly use such tools as follows: Linear Passenger port performance is evaluated on the basis programming; Network Optimization; Game Theory; Dynamic of how well the traffic demands could be satisfied upon the Petri networks; Decision Analysis; Markov Chains; Queuing facilities the system is handled with. Theory; Queuing system [6]. In the overview of the use of a large Over the years, certain techniques have evolved that enable number of terminal schedules, it is necessary to use modeling passenger port planners and designers to forecast future based on the theory of discrete processes and systems. With demands and better planning of capacities. The principal items this approach, it is necessary to introduce a new term for the for that include the following: state of the marine
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