Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions and Creating Reserve Networks: a Review of Tools and Methods
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Durham E-Theses Adapting Protected Area Networks to the Impacts of Climate Change: Potential Options for the Sub-Saharan Africa Important Bird Area (IBA) Network FRATER, GEORGE,KENNETH,CHARLES How to cite: FRATER, GEORGE,KENNETH,CHARLES (2009) Adapting Protected Area Networks to the Impacts of Climate Change: Potential Options for the Sub-Saharan Africa Important Bird Area (IBA) Network, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/200/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 Adapting Protected Area Networks to the Impacts of Climate Change: Potential Options for the Sub-Saharan Africa Important Bird Area (IBA) Network George Frater School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University 2009 This Thesis is submitted in candidature for the degree of Master of Science Declaration The material contained within this thesis has not previously been submitted for a degree at Durham University or any other University. The research reported within this thesis has been conducted by the author, unless indicated otherwise. © The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No parts of this thesis should be reproduced without prior consent from the author, and quotations should be acknowledged i Abstract Predicted climate change represents a major challenge to conservation over the 21 st Century and beyond. Currently, conservation is largely reliant upon static Protected Areas (PAs) to conserve uncommon species. However, evidence from past climate change events suggests that species distributions are dynamic and alter in relation to species’ bioclimate envelopes. Adapting PA networks to cope with projected changes in species distributions is a vital role of conservation biology. The sub-Saharan Africa Important Bird Area (IBA) network is designed to protect sites containing significant proportions of the populations of congregatory species, species which have restricted ranges or species of global conservation concern found on the continent. Here I explore ways in which the IBA network can be adapted to the impacts of climate change. Data of present species ranges and simulations of future range shifts for 1608 bird species for the time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 were used. Initially, using a reserve selection algorithm (RSA), I created optimal PA networks of one- and quarter-degree cells for present and future time periods. I then created near-optimal reserve networks using IBAs alone, or permitting the selection of additional land-areas. Finally, I incorporated economic opportunity costs of land into the RSAs to assess how to adapt the network to climate change in the most economical way. The results showed that while some areas of Africa will undergo a large reduction in their importance to a complementarity-based PA network (such as West Africa), other areas will increase in importance (East and Southern Africa). Selected PAs often coincided with areas of currently recognised importance to conservation in both present and future projected scenarios. However, the selection of sites in these areas generally increased over the century. The number of additional sites needed to complement the IBA network and reach conservation targets also increased over time. The areas of increased importance were, on the whole, areas of increased economic opportunity costs to conservation and therefore the acquisition costs of PAs selected in the future may be greater than those selected for the present. ii Acknowledgements This thesis is written and analysed wholly by myself (unless referenced), however its completion could not have happened without the support of a number of people. Firstly, I would like to thank Steve Willis (Primary supervisor) and Dave Hole (Co- supervisor) for their input and invaluable comments on my work. Secondly, Stu Butchart, Lincoln Fishpool and Mike Evans of BirdLife International have provided data regarding IBAs and EBAs in sub-Saharan Africa used in this project. I would like to thank the Hatfield Trust for the Floreat Scholarship given to me which contributed to my tuition fees. On this note, finally I would like to thank my parents for the financial support and encouragement they gave me to start my masters. iii Contents Declaration ……………………………………..……………………………….……………………. i Abstract …………………………………………………………………………….…………….……ii Acknowledgements ……………………...…………………………………………………......... iii Chapter 1: Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions and Creating Reserve Networks: A Review of Tools and Methods ..................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Predicting the effects of climate change on species distributions ............................ 2 Palaeoecological Studies ........................................................................................... 2 Present-day observations ........................................................................................... 3 Modelling future species distributions ...................................................................... 5 Bioclimatic Envelope Models ....................................................................................... 5 Alternatives to Bioclimatic Envelope Models ................................................................... 8 Reserve selection methods ................................................................................... 11 Reserve Selection Algorithms ................................................................................... 11 Optimality ............................................................................................................. 14 Applying RSAs to large datasets ................................................................................ 19 Habitat connectivity ............................................................................................... 19 Habitat corridors ..................................................................................................... 19 Connectivity software .............................................................................................. 21 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 22 References ............................................................................................................ 24 Chapter 2: Key regions of current and projected future avian biodiversity across Sub-Saharan Africa .................................................................................... 35 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 35 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 35 Methods ................................................................................................................. 38 Bioclimate and species data ..................................................................................... 39 Reserve selection ................................................................................................... 41 Results .................................................................................................................. 43 One-degree data .................................................................................................... 44 Quarter-degree data ............................................................................................... 47 Climate data .......................................................................................................... 51 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 55 References ............................................................................................................ 59 Chapter 3: Impacts of Climate Change on the African Important Bird Area Network: Potential Options for Adaptation .......................................................... 66 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 66 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 66 Methods ................................................................................................................. 68 Bioclimate and Species Data .................................................................................... 68 Reserve Selection .................................................................................................