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Morning Meeting Daily Morning Meeting Daily Head of Research Seok Yun, CFA [email protected] February 2, 2012 MARKET INDICATORS (KRX index, %) Feb 1 1-mo chg 3-mo chg Today’s comments Chemicals 4,894 12.0 3.5 Iron & Metal Products 6,442 12.0 6.7 Daelim Industrial (BUY): Expecting improvement in 2012 (KS Kang) Distribution 518 5.5 (1.6) Food & Beverage 3,086 (0.6) 3.9 Transport Equipment 2,696 4.4 (5.4) Transport & Storage 2,586 11.8 1.7 Electrical & Electronic Equip 9,006 6.0 10.6 Banks 246 4.1 (8.5) Securities 2,095 23.4 13.5 Communication 240 (5.6) (9.0) Electricity & Gas 888 7.6 10.9 Rates (%) Feb 1 1-mo ago 3-mo ago 3-month CD 3.58 3.58 3.59 3-year corporate bond 4.23 4.21 4.32 Call rate 3.25 3.27 3.25 KRW/USD 1,126 1,153 1,121 JPY/USD 76 78 78 Korea CDS spread (bps) 191 191 103 FUND FLOW (KOSPI) (KRWb) Feb 1 Jan 31 Jan 30 Foreign Buying 1,651 2,351 1,636 Selling 1,236 2,210 1,712 Net 416 140 (76) Domestic Buying 1,315 1,063 1,176 Selling 1,593 1,103 1,376 Net (277) (40) (200) Retail Buying 3,842 3,116 3,257 Selling 4,039 3,148 3,086 Net (198) (32) 172 FUND FLOW (KOSDAQ) (KRWb) Net buying Feb 1 Jan 31 Jan 30 Foreign (2) 7 (17) Domestic 11 10 6 Retail 3 (4) 16 We welcome feedback on our services. To make comments, suggestions, or complaints, ADRs/GDRs please contact us at [email protected]. Last 1-day chg Prem/ (USD) (%) disc (%) KB Financial Group 38.2 0.7 1.9 MARKET DATA Samsung Electronics 486.1 (1.3) 1.4 (Index, %) Feb 1 1-week chg 1-mo chg 3-mo chg 12-mo chg KOSPI 1,959 0.4 7.3 2.6 (5.4) SK Telecom 14.0 0.1 1.1 Posco 92.2 0.50.8 KOSPI 200 257 (0.0) 8.0 2.9 (6.0) KOSDAQ 519 1.5 3.8 5.5 (1.0) MAJOR PRODUCT PRICES (USD) Feb 1 1-mo ago 3-mo ago TRADING DATA ECONOMIC FORECASTS DRAM spot (KRWt) KOSPI KOSDAQ 20102011E 2012E DDR3 1Gb 1333MHz 0.64 0.67 0.80 Trading value 7.2 2.5 GDP growth (% y-y) 6.3 3.8 4.2 DDR3 2Gb 1333MHz 0.86 1.11 1.18 Market cap 1,116.5 110.9 Unemployment rate (%) 3.7 3.5 3.4 TFT-LCD (17" SXGA) 58 58* 58 Customer deposits* 20.1 n/a CPI growth (% y-y) 2.9 4.2 3.4 TFT-LCD (32" WXGA) 147 147* 147 Long arbitrage balance 2.3 n/a KRW/USD rate (year-end) 1,135 1,000 950 Dubai crude (USD/bbl) 105.32 108.61 114.89 Trading volume (mil shares) 501 637 3-year KTB yield (%) 3.4 3.4 3.9 Ethylene (USD/tonne) 1,121 1,201 1,381 Note: * As of Jan 31 HDPE (USD/tonne) 1,300 1,329 1,370 Details of Samsung Securities' and analysts' equity holdings in the companies covered here are shown at the end of each report. HRC—China spot (USD/tonne) 538 490 481 All our research is available on a variety of electronic platforms, including Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters. Ship price—VLCC (USDm) 97 98 102 Contact your Samsung sales representative for access. Note: * LCD data updated twice a month February 2, 2012 Morning Meeting Daily Daelim Industrial (000210 KS) Company Expecting improvement in 2012 Update WHAT’S THE STORY? Event: 4Q11 operating results and upward revisions to 2012 guidance. Impact: Even after a recent share price rally, Daelim Industrial offers the largest valuation merits in the construction sector in light of upward revisions to its gross margin and sales forecast. Action: Daelim is our top pick and we maintain a BUY rating on the stock. THE QUICK VIEW 2012 guidance revised up: Daelim Industrial yesterday raised its 2012 sales and operating profit targets 5.6% and 43.1%, respectively, to KRW9.4t and KRW807.9b—the sales target 31% higher than 2011 sales. The company expects total sales to surge, believing overseas sales will KS Kang balloon to KRW3.5t (from KRW1.8t in 2011) thanks to a project in the Philippines, which it Analyst started before signing a contract. Daelim hiked its operating profit estimate following an upward [email protected] revision to its 2012 gross margin estimate (from 10.4% to 13%), in turn based on rises in its gross 822 2020 7776 margin assumptions for its plant and architecture divisions—from 11.1% and 6.5%, respectively, to 15% and 10.2%. We find it encouraging that Daelim is raising its guidance when many Sungyup Oh constructors are suffering from falling gross margins overseas. Research Associate [email protected] Aggressive regional and divisional diversification: Daelim is targeting KRW7.8t in 822 2020 7827 overseas orders (or 57% of its 2012 new order target of KRW13.7t)—staggering given that its averaged less than KRW3t in annual overseas orders over 2008-2010. We believe the firm can hit its 2012 target, as it is successfully diversifying its business into new regions and new types of plant—having previously focused on the Middle East and petrochemical plants. Daelim won AT A GLANCE power-plant orders from the Middle East last year, and looks set to win power plant orders from Vietnam, the Philippines, and Jamaica this year. The firm’s pursuit of a petrochemical-complex package deal also seems a valid strategy, as the constructor own a chemical production line, which combined with overseas orders, could greatly boost top- and bottom-line growth. Operating fundamentals intact despite poor 4Q results: Daelim’s consolidated sales Target price KRW164,000(44.5%) grew 41.8% y-y in 4Q, but operating profit plunged 52.6% y-y to KRW53.2b, due to KRW65.6b in one-off asset impairment losses from subsidiaries Korea Development Corporation and Samho Current price KRW113,500 International, resulting in a quarterly net loss. On a parent basis, however, Daelim posted an Bloomberg code 000210 KS adjusted operating profit of KRW107.6b and an operating margin of 5%. It company also posted a Market cap KRW4.0t/USD3.6b solid annualized overseas gross margin of 16.2%—topping guidance by 3.1%pts—despite its Shares (float) 34,800,000 (76.0%) overseas COGS ratio rising 89.7% q-q in 4Q. 52-week high/low KRW142,000/KRW70,500 Recommending Daelim as sector top pick: We reiterate our BUY rating on Daelim, with a Average daily trading value KRW25.99b/ target price of KRW164,000 (based on a 2012 P/E of 11.7x applied to a 12-month forward EPS (60-day) USD23.07m estimate of KRW13,853). Even following a recent share price rally, Daelim still offers the largest One-year performance 1M 6M 12M valuation merits in the construction sector in light of upward revisions to its gross margin and Daelim Industrial (%) +26.4 -14.0 -8.8 sales forecasts. We expect valuation discounts placed on the company to dissipate, as: 1) its Vs Kospi (%pts) +19.1 -4.2 -3.4 overseas orders rebounded to near industry averages in 2011 after remaining low (at around KEY CHANGES KRW2t) in the past; 2) its overseas division, having previously focused on the Middle East and petrochemical plants, has started to take overseas orders in Asia and for power plants; 3) its total (KRW) New Old Diff unsold housings and PF loan guarantees have dropped below the sector averages to 2,024 units Recommendation BUY BUY and KRW1.1t, respectively; and 4) Daelim’s EPS should grow at a 25% CAGR through end-2014, Target price 164,000 164,000 +0% despite the firm adopting a conservative approach to how it recognizes COGS. 2011E EPS 8,465 12,791 -33.8% 2012E EPS 14,037 13,918 0.9% SUMMARY FINANCIAL DATA 2013E EPS 15,988 15,314 4.4% 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue (KRWb) 7,690.9 7,989 10,002 11,374.0 Net profit (adj) (KRWb) 351.5 379 556 635.5 SAMSUNG vs THE STREET EPS (adj) (KRW) 8,600 8,465 14,037 15,988 No of I/B/E/S estimates 35 EPS (adj) growth (%) 5.4 (1.6) 65.8 13.9 EBITDA margin (%) 7.3 7.6 8.3 8.0 Target price vs I/B/E/S mean +18% ROE (%) 8.6 8.6 11.4 11.6 Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/0 P/E (adj) (x) 13.2 13.4 8.1 7.1 1-year fwd EPS vs I/B/E/S mean +13% P/B (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Estimates up/down (4 weeks) 0/1 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 7.8 5.0 3.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 I/B/E/S recommendation Buy Source: Company data, Samsung Securities estimates All our research is available on a variety of electronic platforms, Head of Research including Bloomberg, First Call Research Direct, I/B/E/S Trapeze, Multex, and Investext. Yun Seok, CFA Contact your Samsung sales representative for access. [email protected] 2 February 2, 2012 Morning Meeting Daily Valuations for major KSE-listed companies Code Stock Close Target Rec P/B (x) P/E (x) ROE (%) Mkt cap (KRW) (KRW) 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E (USDm) A005930 Samsung Electronics 1,079,000 1,250,000 BUY 1.9 1.7 13.8 11.4 14.3 15.2 154,563 A005380 Hyundai Motor 218,500 274,000 BUY★★★ 1.8 1.5 8.0 7.4 21.9 19.3 46,458 A005490 Posco 412,000 520,000 BUY★★★ 1.1 1.0 8.7 8.1 11.0 10.8 31,916 A012330 Hyundai Mobis 283,000 380,000 BUY★★★ 2.1 1.7 9.2 7.9 24.4 22.9 24,480 A000270 Kia Motors 66,900 85,000 BUY★★★ 2.3 1.7 8.0 6.7 29.6 26.6 24,019 A051910 LG Chem 388,000 420,000 BUY 3.0 2.5 13.1 11.5 25.4 23.4 23,680 A009540 Hyundai Heavy Industries 314,000 390,000 BUY 1.5 1.2 7.6 8.2 20.8 16.0 21,203 A015760 Kepco 27,900 38,000 BUY 0.3 0.3 (12.6) 27.7 (2.8) 1.2 15,914 A032830 Samsung Life Insurance 84,000 140,000 BUY★★★ 1.1 1.1 19.9 14.6 5.6 7.6 14,927 A105560 KB Financial Group 42,150 49,000 HOLD 0.7 0.6 6.8 7.7 11.0 8.7 14,469 A000660 Hynix Semiconductor 27,200 24,000 HOLD 2.1 1.6 (1,140.4) 198.9 3.4 1.4 14,311 A096770 SK Innovation 172,000 220,000 BUY 1.2 1.1 7.5 8.1 25.2 12.7 14,184 A066570 LG Electronics 84,300 67,000 HOLD 1.2 1.1 455.0 19.8 (0.3) 6.0 12,660 A010950 S-Oil 120,500 142,000 BUY 2.6 2.3 11.4 9.3 24.7 25.6 12,265 A003550 LG Corporation 71,200 81,400 BUY 1.7 1.7 27.1 24.6 6.5 6.9 10,988 A011170 Honam Petrochemical 368,500 400,000 BUY 2.1 1.8 11.2 10.2 21.8 19.9 10,431 A017670 SK Telecom 140,500 169,000 HOLD 1.3 1.1 7.1 6.8 13.1 11.8 10,080 A000830 Samsung C&T 71,500 101,000 BUY 1.4 1.3 42.9 20.5 4.6 6.3 10,014
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