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Embracer Group Reason: Preview of Results Company Sponsored Research Seasonally Strong Quarter Ahead Not Rated Equity Research - 19 January 2020 20:03 CET Embracer Group Reason: Preview of results Company sponsored research Seasonally strong quarter ahead Not rated Solid Q3’19/20e expected; however, we adjust… Estimate changes (%) …estimates due to FF VII, Shenmue III & Biomutant 2019e 2020e 2021e EV/operational EBIT 17.3x-11.8x for ’19e-‘21e Sales -13.8% 11.5% 5.0% EBIT (rep) -20.4% 17.7% 10.9% Q3’19/20e: sales of SEK 1,535m, Op. EBIT SEK 363m EPS (rep) -21.7% 18.3% 11.4% For Q3’19/20e, we estimate a top line of SEK 1,535m for total y-o-y Source: ABG Sundal Collier growth of 11.2%. On a segment level, we estimate revenues of SEK Share price (SEK) 16/01/2020 75.0 550m from Deep Silver, driven by strong back catalogue sales from Metro Exodus and Kingdom Come: Deliverance as well as the new Software, Sweden release of Shenmue III. For THQ Nordic, we estimate sales of SEK EMBRACB.ST /EMBRACB ST 325m, driven mainly by the release of Darksiders Genesis on Steam and Google Stadia in combination with strong back catalogue sales from MCap (SEKm) 21,041 Wreckfest. For Coffee Stain, we forecast sales of SEK 60m, mainly MCap (EURm) 1,991.3 driven by Satisfactory, which has claimed a spot on the Epic Game Store Net debt (EURm) -174 top sellers list for several weeks. In terms of Partner Publishing, we forecast sales of SEK 600m, driven by the seasonally strong Sep-Dec No. of shares (m) 281 period, along with stronger than expected sales for F1’19. As such, the Free float (%) 48.2 total contribution from the Games segments amounts to SEK 935m, or Av. daily volume (k) 571.2 61% of total revenues. This should provide strong margins for the quarter, and we forecast a gross margin of 50.1%, contributing to our Next event Q3 report: 19 Feb operational EBIT estimate of SEK 363m, for a margin of 23.6%. Performance Estimate revisions due to FF VII, Shenmue III & Biomutant 900 We lower our revenue estimate for Deep Silver from SEK 625m to SEK 800 550m in Q3’19/20e, mainly due to Shenmue III performing below our 700 600 expectations. Furthermore, as no official release date has been 500 announced for Biomutant, we have pencilled in a release in the next 400 300 financial year instead of Q4’19/20e. Lastly, due to a delay of Square 200 Enixs’ Final Fantasy VII remake, we now pencil in a release in Q1’20/21e 100 instead of Q4’19/20e. See page 3 for more details. 0 Jul 17 Jul Jul 18 Jul Jul 19 Jul Jan 17 Jan Jan 18 Jan Jan 19 Jan Mar 17 Mar Mar 18 Mar Mar 19 Mar Sep 17 Sep Nov 17 Nov Sep 18 Sep Nov 18 Nov Sep 19 Sep Nov 19 Nov May 17 May May 18 May May 19 May Embracer Group OMX STH PI EV/Op. EBIT 17.3x-11.8x for 2019/2020e-2021/2022e Based on our updated estimates, Embracer is trading at an 1m 3m 12m EV/operational EBIT of 17.3x-11.8x for 2019/2020e-2021/2022e. This is Absolute (%) 7.1 -3.4 37.1 a discount of 23.1% compared to the 3-year average NTM EV/Op. EBIT. OMX STH PI (%) 3.3 10.9 27.1 It is also a discount of 22.5% compared to the median ‘20e EV/EBIT of Source: FactSet our mid-sized peer group based on FactSet consensus. Lead analyst: Jesper Birch-Jensen Stefan Knutsson 2019e 2020e 2021e SEKm 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e P/E (x) 61.2 33.4 32.2 Sales 508 5,754 5,157 7,250 7,310 P/E adj (x) 61.2 33.4 32.2 EBITDA 273 1,593 1,837 2,405 2,590 EBITDA margin (%) 53.7 27.7 35.6 33.2 35.4 P/BVPS (x) 3.13 2.86 2.63 EBIT adj 188 575 502 877 915 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 8.0 7.4 EBIT adj margin (%) 37.1 10.0 9.7 12.1 12.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) 38.7 22.1 20.9 Pretax profit 182 545 475 852 882 EV/sales (x) 3.76 2.67 2.61 EPS rep 1.76 4.22 1.22 2.25 2.32 ROE adj (%) 5.2 9.0 8.5 EPS adj 1.76 4.22 1.22 2.25 2.32 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) 1.1 0.2 1.3 Sales growth (%) 68.1 1,033.7 -10.4 40.6 0.8 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 1.1 0.2 1.3 EPS growth (%) 75.8 140.4 -71.0 83.4 3.5 Net IB debt/EBITDA -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Embracer Group Opportunities Risks A large part of the IP portfolio is still not generating any Despite Embracer Group’s broad portfolio, there are risks income, but the pipeline of game launches is strong, associated with larger title releases as they have a including a few AAA titles. Together with a strong relatively large impact on sales right after launch. management with a clear M&A agenda, Embracer Group is Moreover, disappointing releases or reviews could dent well suited for future value-adding acquisitions, which end-customer enthusiasm and hurt the company's could mean securing more IPs and portfolio expansion. finances, especially during the launch period. Delays in The acquisition of Koch Media further adds new planned and ongoing gaming projects could adversely distribution/publishing channels, an opportunity to reach affect the group’s profitability. Acquiring established but further and wider with the current portfolio and expected temporarily underperforming gaming brands and gradually pipeline, aligning them for additional growth. improving them increases the potential risk of performing below market expectations. Games segment breakdown, 2018, SEKm Business area breakdown, 2018, SEKm 2,000 3,500 1,800 3,000 1,600 2,500 1,400 1,200 2,000 1,000 1,500 800 1,000 600 400 500 200 0 0 THQ Nordic Deep Silver Coffee Stain Partner Owned titles Publishing titles Physical sales Digital sales Publishing/Film Sales Sales Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK 2.8 3.4 2.6 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.0 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.6 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description Embracer Group acquires, develops and publishes PC and 1,800 250 console games for the global gaming market. Its core 1,600 business model consists of acquiring established gaming 200 1,400 brands and gradually improving them. Much of Embracer 1,200 Group’s soul stems from entrepreneur, founder and CEO 150 1,000 Lars Wingefors, who at the age of 16 founded Nordic 800 Games, which we today associate with Embracer Group. 100 600 The game changer came in 2013 when most of today’s brand portfolio was acquired from THQ Inc’s insolvency. At 400 50 200 the start of 2018, the company acquired Koch Media, which focuses on game development and gives Embracer 0 0 Group a larger publishing business. quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 19 January 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Embracer Group Estimate changes We have slightly lowered our revenue estimate for the Deep Silver segment in Q3’19/20e, from SEK 625m to SEK 550m, mainly due to Shenmue III performing below our expectations. As no official release date for Biomutant has been announced, we have moved the release from Q4’19/20e into the next financial year. As such, we lower Q4’19/20e revenue for the THQ segment from SEK 450m to SEK 300m. We acknowledge that Biomutant would most likely have had a much larger impact than SEK 150m, but given strong reviews of Darksiders Genesis and solid sales figures on PC, we think that the console release will perform stronger in Q4’19/20e than we originally thought. Square Enix recently announced that it was pushing back the release of its much- anticipated Final Fantasy VII remake, for which Koch Media is set to handle physical distribution in Europe. The game was initially set to be released in March ’20, but it has now been slated for April ’20. As such, we lower our revenue forecast from SEK 1,000m to SEK 400m in Q4’19/20 for the Partner Publishing segment, and pencil in a Q1’20/21e release. Lastly, we note that the fact that 2020/2021e looks like being a very strong year for the Partner Publishing segment – with releases like Final Fantasy VII remake, Marvels’ Avengers, Dying Light 2 and Resident Evil 3 remake - will pressure Embracer’s profitability due to low gross margins in the Partner Publishing segment.
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