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Medvedev Lauds U.S. Passage of New START Thursday, Dec. 23, 2010

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday commended the U.S. Senate for ratifying a new nuclear arms control treaty, but warned Russian lawmakers would have to assess Washington's ratification text before completing their own endorsement of the pact, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Dec. 22; Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Washington Post, Dec. 23).

(Dec. 23) - Russian President Vladimir Medvedev, shown today, welcomed the U.S. Senate's ratification yesterday of the New START nuclear arms control pact. Lawmakers in Moscow are expected to soon endorse the treaty (Vladimir Rodionov/Getty Images).

Medvedev "expressed hope that the Duma and Federation Council (Russia's upper parliament house) will be ready to examine this issue and also ratify the document," Reuters quoted spokeswoman Natalya Timakova as saying (Lidia Kelly, Reuters, Dec. 23).

Russian lawmakers were set within hours to receive the Senate ratification text, RIA Novosti quoted State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov as saying today.

The lower hours of parliament might endorse ratification tomorrow "if these conditions don't change the text of the treaty," he said (see GSN, Dec. 22). The chamber would take longer if it found any alterations to the treaty's content, according to Gryzlov (RIA Novosti, Dec. 23). The treaty would enter into force following ratification in Moscow.

President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed New START in April. The pact would require Russia and the United States to cap their deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550, down from a limit of 2,200 required by 2012 under an earlier treaty. It also would set a ceiling of 700 deployed warhead delivery systems, with another 100 allowed in reserve.

Republican senators had unsuccessfully sought direct revisions to the treaty that would have forced renegotiation of the pact with Russia. Instead, Democratic and Republican senators ultimately endorsed several amendments to the treaty's ratification resolution, including new statements on missile defense and the modernization of U.S. nuclear weapons, AP reported.

The Russian legislature could ratify New START upon making its determinations about the new language, Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachyov said.

"We realize that the process shouldn't be delayed, but we intend to work in such a way that it doesn't affect the quality," Kosachyov said, adding that the Duma might either endorse the pact without qualifications or take additional time to formulate its own interpretations of the agreement (Isachenkov, Associated Press).

Still, Soviet-era arms control negotiator Roland Timerbayev said New START "will now be ratified [in Russia] for sure," Reuters reported. "These resolutions are the opinions of the Duma or the Senate -- important views maybe -- but they don't affect the substance of the treaty," he said.

Medvedev's United Russia party controls both houses of the Russian legislature, ensuring passage of the treaty if it retains backing from the

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nation's leadership.

"If the Kremlin wants do to it as quickly as possible then it can be done in one day," though Moscow is likely to re-emphasize its right to end participation in the pact if it deemed future U.S. missile defense deployments a strategic threat, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the magazine Russia in Global Affairs (Kelly, Reuters).

President Obama yesterday said the pact's ratification in the United States "sends a powerful signal to the world," Agence France-Presse reported.

"I'm glad the Democrats and Republicans came together to approve my top national security priority for this session of Congress," Obama told reporters.

Thirteen Republican senators broke with party leadership to support ratification. The final tally was 71-26.

"This is the most significant arms control agreement in nearly two decades and it will make us safer and reduce our nuclear arsenals along with Russia," Obama said. "The strong bipartisan vote in the Senate sends a powerful signal to the world that Republicans and Democrats stand together on behalf of our security" (Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, Dec. 22).

Analysts, though, disagreed yesterday on the treaty's ultimate importance, the Washington Times reported.

The pact in many respects resembled the nuclear weapons agreements the United States negotiated with the Soviet Union, said Henry Sokolski, who heads the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

"Part of the reason I suspect hawks and conservatives were eager to find fault with New START, even though it's a modest proposition, is because it is still of this lineage and they wanted it to be the last of its line," Sokolski said. "None of the Cold War-era arms control agreements were designed to address the problem of breakout states like North Korea or even third and fourth parties like China, India and Pakistan."

"This doesn't mean we should stop doing arms control with the Russians," he said. "The real value of this agreement is that we can move on and start dealing with these other problems; if we don't, I want my money back."

Arms Control Association Daryl Kimball considered the treaty a valuable accomplishment.

"To say it is a relic is wrong," Kimball said. "The weapons are a relic. The United States and Russia have thousands of nuclear weapons. So long as that is the case, there is a value to having treaties that mandate further reductions through verifiable means."

"It lays the foundation for further reductions of all types of weapons, strategic, nonstrategic, deployed or nondeployed. Whether further U.S.-Russian reductions are achieved through a treaty or a unilateral, reciprocal declaration remains to be seen," he said (Eli Lake, Washington Times I, Dec. 22).

Heritage Foundation expert James Carafano, though, said the pact "is going to make the world a less stable place," the Wall Street Journal reported (Barnes/Bendavid, Wall Street Journal, Dec. 23).

Increased Republican influence in the incoming Senate means the body is likely to take a more conservative tack on arms control matters in the future, the Christian Science Monitor quoted another analyst as saying. The party in November's midterm elections picked up six seats in the chamber and will also take control of the House.

“The 2010 elections changed the political landscape,” said Clifford May, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a critic of the treaty. The incoming Senate is likely to stress a "reliable and modern weapons arsenal" and missile defenses, as opposed to further arsenal cuts, he said.

Senator Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), a newly elected lawmaker who has already assumed office, in a recent floor statement said the administration should be “paying attention to ending the Iranian nuclear threat rather than to this agreement and its modest goals." He voted against ratification.

Kimball, though, suggested lawmakers could reach increasing levels of agreement on arms control matters.

"Of course it’s going to be tougher with the new Republicans coming in, but it’s also not obvious that it means everything comes to a standstill,” he said. “What I see emerging from this debate is a bipartisan consensus that believes ... further effort needs to be pursued in reducing U.S. and Russian warheads.”

"Despite the opposition from what can only be called the Dr. Strangelove caucus,” Kimball said, “I think 70-plus votes (for New START) suggests the consensus is there to move forward, and I believe the administration will do just that.”

Steven Pifer, head of the Brookings Institution's Arms Control Initiative, said "the treaty’s ratification will reaffirm U.S. leadership in reducing the global threat of nuclear weapons.”

New START would "send a message to Iran and North Korea that the international community remains united to restrain the nuclear ambitions of countries that operate outside the law,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.) said ahead of yesterday's vote (Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor, Dec. 22).

Future negotiations with Russia on nonstrategic nuclear weapons curbs could pose an even greater challenge for the Obama administration than the negotiation and passage of New START, experts told the Journal.

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Verifying battlefield nuclear-bomb reductions would involve extensive audits of Russian sites and U.S. facilities in Europe that could prove anathema to Moscow and Washington alike, Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie Gelb said.

A deal on tactical nuclear weapons could still be reached, said James Miller, a high-level Defense Department official involved in negotiating New START. There is "a lot of room for reductions" of nonstrategic weapons for both countries, Miller said (Barnes/Bendavid, Wa l l S t re e t Journal).

Meanwhile, New START's top U.S. negotiator said the Obama administration would pursue ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in cooperation with senators "who were not members" when the Senate rejected the pact in 1999, according to a leaked May 2009 State Department cable (see GSN, Nov. 9).

"It would be hard work, but it was achievable," the Times quoted Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller as saying in the communication.

Gottemoeller "noted that the U.S. voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing did not affect the confidence the United States has in its stockpiles and the overall consensus was that acceding to the CTBT probably would not put the reliability of the U.S. stockpile at risk," the document said.

"There were a large number of new senators since the last time the treaty was considered, and the administration would work to educate them on the issues," the cable quoted her as saying (Bill Gertz, Washington Times II, Dec. 22).

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