The impact of excessive speculation on commodity market prices A Master’s Thesis By Adam Mathews September 2012 The impact of excessive speculation on commodity market prices AR Mathews Utrecht University ii The impact of excessive speculation on commodity market prices A Master’s thesis in the Faculty of Geosciences for Master of Science in Environmental Sciences. Name: Adam Raymond Mathews M(Phys) Student number: 3421503 Email:
[email protected] Permanent Address: 1 Edge Hill, Kinver West Midlands DY7 6DP UK Msc Sustainable Development Faculty of Geosciences Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Track ‘Energy and Resources’ Supervisors Prof. dr. Ernst Worrell (
[email protected]) Dr. Eva Niesten (
[email protected]) (2nd reader) AR Mathews Utrecht University iii The impact of excessive speculation on commodity market prices AR Mathews Utrecht University iv The impact of excessive speculation on commodity market prices Acknowledgements and Foreword This thesis was inspired by my real-world experience of the difficulties of trading commodities where supply and demand are only partially reflected in prices. Many within industry blame this on financial speculation, so it was to that end that I wished to investigate the role of finance in setting commodities prices. This thesis did not simply improve my knowledge of a discipline (financial economics) which is increasingly important in today’s world, it also taught me a lot about regulatory decision-making and econometric techniques for testing the hypotheses outlined in conventional economics. For that I am grateful to the flexibility shown by the Faculty of Geosciences at Utrecht University for allowing me to study a subject which is not obviously related to the Sustainable Development master’s programme.