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Phd Thesis, University of Rochester As Good as Gold? About the Financial Implications of Gold and Silver By SAMUEL ALEXANDRE VIGNE Supervised by BRIAN M. LUCEY School of Business TRINITY COLLEGE UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN A dissertation submitted to the University of Dublin in accordance with the requirements of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the School of Business. SAINT PATRICK’S DAY 2017 DECLARATION declare that this thesis has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at this or any other university and it is entirely my Iown work. I agree to deposit this thesis in the University’s open access institutional repository or allow the Library to do so on my be- half, subject to Irish Copyright Legislation and Trinity College Library conditions of use and acknowledgement. Juré sur l’honneur en connaissance des conséquences juridiques. SIGNED: ...................................... DATE: ................................. i SUMMARY nternational currency or production asset? Safe haven or classical commodity? This thesis offers insights into the financial implications of gold and silver by Ifocusing on three distinct investigations motivated by a brief history on the role of the two precious metals in fiscal and financial politics, and underpinned by a thorough literature review identifying research fields that are better explored than others. A first investigation offers insights into the relationship between precious metals and a set of different inflation measures in the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and Japan. A clean and modern methodology uncovers time-variation in the relationship between precious metals and inflation for all countries; but also the superiority of silver as a hedging tool in the United Kingdom and Japan. The second focus of this thesis is set around model specification and relies on a complex big data methodology allowing the computation of millions of possible realistic scenarios in order to discover possible variables associated with price movements of gold and silver. While results point towards the importance of classi- cal variables such as the US Dollar and inflation, other less traditional variables appear to be more important than initially suggested - such as the UK economic uncertainty index or the S&P Case-Shiller national home price index. The final research question considered offers unique insights into the drivers of physical gold and silver demand for a large set of countries. A combination of sophisticated linear and dynamic panel data models is applied and empirical insights are obtained. Results for gold point towards a positive relationship with short-term yields and economic uncertainty, while stronger country-specific effects are uncovered for silver. iii DEDICATION To whom it may concern. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS u quoque, fili mi. History has repeatedly proven the ungratefulness of protégés, raising concerns why mentors still exist in todays’ world. When T Professor Dr. Brian M. Lucey asked me if I was interested in becoming his PhD student in the early Summer of 2013, I didn’t know that I would see Australia a year later, become an Assistant Professor with Queen’s University Belfast two years later, and put my life at risk on an improvised boat in the Mekong Delta about three years later. For all of this, I would like to thank him from the bottom of my heart; he has gone far beyond what any student can expect from his supervisor and it is thanks to him, and him alone, that I look forward to a life in academia - the most enjoyable career I could have ever wished for. I once told Professor Lucey that I will never be able to repay him for all he has done for me; his answer was that I am not supposed to, but that I should carry on the favour and look after my own doctoral student one day. I hope that I will be as good as my mentor in this endeavour and will always remember how helpful and patient he was when I was completely lost. While I can only hope to one day master this task, I remain until then a loyal friend and follow the motto - Potius mori quam foedari! I would also like to thank Dr. Fergal A. O’Connor who truly acted as a second supervisor in this endeavour and was both helpful and motivating! Extended gratitude goes to Professor Joseph McDonagh and Samantha Peavoy for an excellently organised PhD Programme. I would also like to mention my gratitude towards Dean Burke - it has been a privilege being part of the growth of the Trinity Business School and I am excited to see how the School will evolve in the years to come. I would like to thank the University of Dublin for financing my PhD and Queen’s University Belfast for all the help received in making this dissertation a reality. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables xxi List of Figures xxxi 1 Introduction1 1.1 Background and Motivation......................... 1 1.2 Contribution .................................. 2 1.2.1 An Investigation Into the Relationships Between Precious Metals and Inflation......................... 2 1.2.2 Extreme Bounds Analyses of Gold and Silver.......... 7 1.2.3 A Panel Approach on the Physical Demand Drivers of Gold and Silver ............................... 8 1.3 Aims and Objectives.............................. 10 1.4 Structure .................................... 10 1.5 Publications from this Doctoral Thesis................... 11 2 A Brief History of Gold, Silver, and Money 13 2.1 About the Origins of Money ......................... 13 2.1.1 Early Beginnings and the Role of Croesus............13 2.1.2 Athens and Rome Adopt the Monetary Policy of the Kingdom of Lydia................................. 14 2.1.3 The Roman Empire Abolishes the Face-value Currency . 15 2.2 Developments in the Early Modern Ages .................15 2.2.1 1492: The New World revolutionises the Spanish Monetary System ................................. 16 2.2.2 The Peace of Madrid allows English Access to Silver from the New World............................... 16 ix TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.2.3 Charles I and the Creation of Banks in England . 17 2.2.4 Goldsmiths Receipts evolve to become Paper Money . 17 2.2.5 1672: The Great Stop of the Exchequer and the Creation of the Bank of England......................... 18 2.3 The Development of Fiat Money ...................... 18 2.3.1 Massachusetts starts Printing Money in the Colonies . 18 2.3.2 The French Revolution brings Fiat Money to Europe . 19 2.3.3 1797: A French Invasion brings Fiat Money to Great Britain . 21 2.4 The International Gold Standard...................... 21 2.4.1 The World turns to Gold....................... 22 2.4.2 The World depends on a Rare Natural Resource . 22 2.4.3 The Gold Standard in Times of Crises ..............23 2.4.4 World War II and the Bretton Woods System ..........23 3 Literature Review 25 3.1 Gold ....................................... 25 3.1.1 About the Relationship between Gold and Macroeconomic Variables................................ 25 3.1.2 Gold and Inflation .......................... 29 3.2 Silver....................................... 31 3.2.1 About the Historical Aspects of Silver and its Role in a Bimetallic System .......................... 32 3.2.1.1 The Historical Aspects of Silver............. 32 3.2.1.2 The Role of Silver in a Bimetallic System . 33 3.2.2 The Structural and Behavioural Aspects of the Silver Price . 35 3.2.3 The Investment Benefits of Silver................. 44 3.2.3.1 Portfolio Aspects of Silver................ 44 3.2.3.2 Silver and Inflation.................... 46 3.2.3.3 Debt- and Equity-Hedging Abilities of Silver . 48 3.2.4 Volatility Issues Around Silver and the Impact on Exchange- Traded Funds............................. 52 3.2.4.1 Silver Price Volatility................... 52 3.2.4.2 Exchange Traded Products on Silver .........63 3.2.5 The Macroeconomic Determinants of the Price of Silver . 65 3.2.6 The Relationship between Silver and other Commodities . 69 x TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.2.6.1 The Relationship between Silver and other Metals . 69 3.2.6.2 The Relationship between Silver and Oil . 74 3.2.7 Research on Silver Futures..................... 78 4 Research Philosophy 85 4.1 Positivism.................................... 85 4.2 Positivist Research Output.......................... 85 4.3 Results Obtained Under the Positivist Paradigm ............86 5 Data 87 5.1 The Price of Gold and Silver......................... 87 5.2 An Investigation into the Relationships Between Precious Metals and Inflation .................................. 88 5.3 Extreme Bounds Analyses of Gold and Silver............... 89 5.4 A Panel Approach on the Physical Demand Drivers of Gold and Silver 90 6 Methodology 93 6.1 Model Selection ................................ 93 6.1.1 Akaike Information Criterion.................... 95 6.1.2 Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion............. 95 6.1.3 Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion............... 96 6.2 Order of Integration.............................. 96 6.3 Unit Root Testing ............................... 97 6.4 Cointegration of Time Series Variables ..................98 6.4.1 Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in a Vector Autoregres- sion Model............................... 99 6.4.2 Autoregressive Distributed Lags..................101 6.4.3 Time-Varying Cointegration ....................102 6.5 Structural Breaks...............................104 6.5.1 Residual-based Tests with Regime and Trend Shifts . 105 6.5.2 Multiple Breakpoint Testing ....................106 6.6 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model . 107 6.7 Variable Selection of Linear Regression
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