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Winnovative HTML to PDF Converter for .NET Reproduced with permission from Real Estate Law & Industry Report, 4 REAL 275 (Apr. 19, 2011). Copyright ©2011 by The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. (800-372-1033), http://www.bna.com Multi-Family Housing East Harlem Multi-Family Rises in Value; Experts See ‘Tremendous Strength’ in Area Although the median sales price for apartments and condominiums in East Harlem, N.Y., is just less than half the median price in New York City itself, recently constructed or renovated apartment buildings are bringing in rents above $9,000 per month. Real estate professionals say they are confident land and property values in the area will continue to rise. Flanked to the east and north by the Harlem River and Fifth Avenue to the west, East Harlem’s southern border is 96th Street, where the Upper East Side ends. Once known as Spanish Harlem, synonymous with street crime and Latin music, East Harlem has been improving its image and its housing stock for more than a decade. Gentrification started around 96th Street, but new rental and condo development quickly crept up to the higher streets, and the population has become genuinely mixed, according to published reports. The median sales price for homes in East Harlem from Jan. 11 to March 11 was $546,140, a decline of 3.8 percent over the last quarter, but an increase of 23.3 percent year-over-year. The median sales price in East Harlem is 47.33 percent lower than the median sales price for the rest of New York City. The average price per square foot for residences in East Harlem was $603 in the most recent quarter, which is 54.07 percent lower than the average price per square foot for residences in other parts of Manhattan, according to published real estate data. Lance Freeman, an associate professor of urban planning at Columbia University, and author of There Goes the ’Hood, told BNA April 7 that overall, the state of East Harlem gentrification is “still in the relatively early stages. Initially you had some people...in the late ’90s moving in...who probably would not have in previous years.” Shimon Shkury, president of Ariel Property Advisors, an investment sales firm that has been focusing on Upper Manhattan since 2003, told BNA April 8 that the gentrification of East Harlem began around the turn of the 21st century. “We had started seeing land trade above $50 a buildable [foot] and that was the beginning of a trend.” Shkury said that there was an increase in land value every year between 2003 and 2007, largely attributable to the finite nature of Manhattan itself. Land below 96th Street was either too expensive or unavailable. “The pricing has gone up a lot faster [below 96th Street] than it has above 96th, so that created a gap that needed to be narrowed,” he said. Proximity to the improving adjacent neighborhoods, most notably the Upper East Side, became another reason for the improvement, he said. East Harlem is now being called the “Upper Upper East Side,” according to published reports. Free Market Rentals. One of the reasons for East Harlem’s gentrification, Shkury said, was that East Harlem began to trim its stock of affordable housing, which relies heavily on government subsidies. “We have started to see some rental development—and it is very hard to develop free market rental,” he said, adding that “condominiums are starting to sell.” Shkury said that this trend started in Central Harlem and other areas and it has “trickled down” to East Harlem as well. “The minute people understood that they could sell condominiums at $400 a square foot, they started taking up the land.” Construction in 2003 was a lot less expensive than today and financing was available at a level for development, he said, and “it made a lot of sense to buy. Suddenly you [would] see pricing go from $50 to $60 to...in some cases $120 a buildable foot.” Economic Downturn. Shkury said that the gentrification process slowed down drastically during the economic downturn, especially in 2008 and 2009. “Prices of multi-family buildings went down 35 percent. Prices of land went down as far as 60 percent.” Prices are still lower than they were at the peak, he said, but they are currently at levels “where you can still sell them. There hasn’t been an oversupply of product in that submarket.” In 2005-2006, he said, it was possible to build a condo for $200 per sq. ft., which came out to $350 per sq. ft. with soft and hard and land costs, “and you’re selling for $550 to $600... making $250 profit.” Now, however, the $200 base price has gone up to around $300, and there’s another $100 in soft costs “and the lend is suddenly $120. So there is no construction and prices will fall.” Condominium prices, he said, have gone down from an average of over $600 per sq. ft. to an average of $500 per sq. ft. “That’s about an 18 to 20 percent reduction,” he said, “which is not terrible. What went down dramatically was the velocity, the volume of transactions.” Shkury said low transaction volume is making it “very hard to tell someone today where things are going to be traded.” Shkury said that, even with reductions like that, the East Harlem commercial real estate market wasn’t hit as hard as the rest of the country. “The developments in East Harlem were relatively limited, the supply was limited, and...the demand has stayed. So properties and condos have traded.” Displacement. The rising property values in East Harlem led to a reported decline of affordable housing in the community, with an influx of white, non-Hispanic young professionals moving into the newly constructed buildings. But there haven’t been so many to bring about a true displacement, according to Freeman. “Right now the market is kind of in the doldrums [and] the economy is relatively slow,” he said. “I would think housing prices would not be rising that much, and so that would make it easier for people to stay in the neighborhood.” There is still a lot of subsidized housing in the neighborhood, he said, and neither Freeman or Shkury have heard of any plans to change that. “There will be some displacement,” Freeman said, “but I don’t think huge portions of the neighborhood are going to be displaced in a few years.” Shkury put the number of new condominium buildings built in the last decade at 25, constituting less than 500 units. Crime Falls. Crime rates in East Harlem, mirroring the rest of New York City, have dropped over 70 percent since 1990. In 2009 there were three homicides in the 25th Precinct, which covers East Harlem north of 116th Street, compared with 35 in 1990. In the 23rd Precinct, the lower part, between 96th and 116th Street, homicides declined from 31 in 1990 to nine in 2009. Other major crimes also declined significantly during that period, according to published reports. Spanish Harlem on $9,000 a Month. Shkury said that the gentrification of East Harlem “continues full force ahead. I think that there is an absorption of these...rental apartment buildings. We have seen increased and improved rents even in the downturn.” Shkury said a number of the multi-family properties that have been trading in Upper Manhattan and East Harlem specifically have been largely rent-stabilized apartment buildings, and now that the neighborhood is changing consistently. “Every vacancy you have is an immediate upside potential for the landlord.” The neighborhood, he said, is improving regardless of the economy. “Even during the recession...we have seen, in the lower parts of East Harlem, restaurants come in, especially along Lexington Avenue.” According to published real estate data, a recently (2010) built multi-family property at 1510 Lexington is charging monthly rents of $2,308 rent for a studio and $9,321 for a three bedroom unit. East River Plaza. The retail choices of East Harlem have also changed. The recently opened (July 2010) 500,000 sq. ft. East River Plaza, just off the FDR Drive between 116th and 119th Streets, is the first “power retail center” in Manhattan (2 REAL 1067, 12/1/09). The anchor tenants are not those normally associated with the New York City lifestyle: Costco, Target, Best Buy, Marshalls, Old Navy, and PetSmart. The center is attached to a 1,248 car parking garage, according to the Plaza’s official website. Asked where the gentrification of East Harlem is going, Shkury said, “It’s heading up. He said that even during the downturn, there were barely any trades, “which means that people believed in the values and didn’t want to sell at lower values than they should.” And that belief, he said, is the nature of Manhattan real estate. There is, he said, “a tremendous strength in the area in general. It starts with Manhattan and moves around Manhattan.” Freeman predicted that East Harlem will become more socially and economically diverse and transition from a relatively poor, predominantly Hispanic neighborhood. “I think you’ll start to see more... relatively affluent people moving into East Harlem... [and] more stores catering to that demographic as well.” Freeman said gentrification “doesn’t have to be a bad thing.” He said that there are winners and losers in every kind of change. “I think in the case of gentrification there are things that could be done to try to minimize some of the negative... [and] I think the city has tried to do some of that.
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