insects Article Predicting the Invasion Potential of the Lily Leaf Beetle, Lilioceris lilii Scopoli (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in North America Maggie Freeman 1,2,*, Chris Looney 1, Marina J. Orlova-Bienkowskaja 3 and David W. Crowder 4 1 Washington State Department of Agriculture, 1111 Washington St. SE, Olympia, WA 98504, USA;
[email protected] 2 Department of Entomology, Oregon State University, Hood River, OR 97031, USA 3 A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, 33 Leninskii pr., Moscow 119071, Russia;
[email protected] 4 Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected] Received: 1 August 2020; Accepted: 21 August 2020; Published: 23 August 2020 Simple Summary: The lily leaf beetle, Lilioceris lilii Scopoli (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is an invasive pest of cultivated and native lilies (Liliaceae). This Eurasian beetle was introduced to North America in 1943, and can now be found in nine provinces and 14 states. The lily leaf beetle has already been found feeding and reproducing on several eastern species of native lilies. To help predict where L. lillii will be able to establish in North America and which native Liliaceae species will be vulnerable to attack, a habitat suitability model was created. This model uses specimen location data along with environmental data to produce habitat suitability estimates between 0 (low suitability) and 1 (high suitability). Model results indicate that the beetle should be able to establish throughout the range of most North American Liliaceae, including species of special conservation concern. With the increased utilization of habitat suitability models in conservation management, this model should be consulted, to help plan preemptive monitoring and control efforts for L.