Muslims in Europe – Facts and Fears

Evert Van De Poll Chapter 10 Muslims in Europe – Facts and Fears In recent years, the British journalist Christopher Caldwell has aroused quite a debate through his publications on what he calls the ‘revolution in Europe.’ Quoting a host of surveys and statistics, Caldwell argues that large-scale immigration, particularly of Muslims, is in the process of transforming Europe profoundly. ‘From the strife-torn banlieues in the larger French cities to the multiplying minarets of Middle England, we are a very long way indeed from the merry multicultural melting-pot of bien pensant fantasy.’115 Putting the question whether ‘you can have the same Europe with different people in it,’ he goes on to describe the ‘predicament’ of today’s societies: The predicament actually consists of two different problems that, because they overlap, are often mistaken for a single problem. There is the problem of Europe’s ability to assimilate immigrants, and there is the problem of Europe’s difficulties with Islam. Christopher Caldwell paints an alarming picture of our values and our social structures drowning in a sea of immigration and of politicians advocating the wrong policies. He calls for another policy. Immigrants should be put to the choice; accept the European way or leave. Much can be said against the view of Caldwell and those who take a similar position. For instance, we would take issue with their argument that immigrants are taking jobs away from Europeans. The job market is much too complicated to reduce the problem of unemployment to the presence of immigrants. Furthermore, we are not so sure that all the Muslims in Europe will radicalize and become inimical to European cultures. Some will, but others might not. And who can tell the proportions of the former and the latter, say, within ten years’ time? Nevertheless, this portrayal of the ‘immigration problem’ and this warning against the rise of fundamentalist Islam sounds a bell among a considerable proportion of the majority population. For this reason, we should pay attention to it. As Christians we are challenged by these kinds of protestations to look for Biblical guidance with respect to the attitude to be taken, and enter the public debate. 115 Christopher Caldwell, Reflections on the Revolution in Europe,p. 21. Chapter 10 1 6 9 Europe and the Gospel: Past Influences, Current Developments, Mission Challenges 10.1. Facts It is difficult to compare the number of ‘Muslims’ in Europe with the number of Christians, since we are used to differentiating between practicing, nominal and non-Christians within the same ethnic or cultural group. Muslims, on the other hand, will not be so comfortable with the distinction between religious practice and belonging to an ethnic community, a distinction which they often perceive of as being ‘European.’ Official statistics of Muslims communities refer to communities, irrespective of the rate of religious practice. They include everyone belonging to an ethnic cultural group that is nominally Muslim. In France, for instance, all immigrants from North Africa, first and second and third generation together, are counted as Muslims, since they originally come from a Muslim country. Having said that, there is no question about the fact that the number of people in Europe who consider themselves as practicing Muslims is growing indeed. They are mainly concentrated in the major urban areas in Western Europe. Consequently, the picture is quite different from country to country. Muslim presence is very limited in the East and in Nordic Europe, but increasingly dominant in the largest cities of Western Europe. Muslims make up twenty-four percent of the population in Amsterdam; twenty percent in Malmo and Marseille; fifteen percent in Paris, Bradford and Birmingham; and ten percent or more in London and Copenhagen.116 However, these concentrations should be seen in relation to population figures for the EU as a whole. When we do that, we see that Muslims account for an estimated four percent of its total population, i.e. 20 to 21 million people. The four European countries with the largest Muslims communities, both in absolute numbers and in percentage of the general population, are France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. The following table outlines the estimated numbers (in millions) and the percentages of the total population: Table 10.1 European countries with the largest Muslim communities (numbers are in millions). Country Total population Muslims % of total population France 64 4.5 - 5.0 7.0 - 7.8 Germany 82 3.0 3.7 United Kingdom 59 1.5 - 2.0 2.5 - 3.4 Netherlands 16 0.7 4.4 116 Timothy Savage, ‘When Town Halls Turn to Mecca,’ The Economist, 6 December 2008. Quoted in John Micklethwait and Adrian Woolbridge, God Is Back, p. 279. 1 7 0 Chapter 10 Evert Van De Poll Growth prospects for Muslim communities Several demographic studies point out that this percentage will rise in the short term because of continued immigration and high birth rates but that it will stabilise within a few decades at 10 to 15 percent. The reasons are twofold. Under the pressure of public opinion, governments will limit immigration. Moreover, there is an increasing emphasis on assimilation. Inasmuch as Muslim families succeed in integrating into society, and adapt to the European way of life, they are expected to have less children. Demographers like Youssef Courbage expect demographic growth of the Muslim communities in Europe to slow down in the near future, provided immigration does not rise dramatically. As Muslim Europeans rise on the social ladder and attain more prosperity, they argue, their families will be smaller – as is generally the case. We see this effect already in the more prosperous Arab countries. Moreover, it can be expected that more Muslim women will have paying jobs in the future, which usually results in postponing the age at which they give birth to their first children, as well as limiting the number of children per woman.117 Quoting recent demographic studies, Philip Jenkins supposes that quantitative growth of the Muslim population in Europe will continue. Countries with large Muslim communities such as France, Germany and the Netherlands will probably have significant Muslim minorities of ten to fifteen percent in 2o25. In that year (which is only thirteen years from now!) the total number of Muslims in Europe will probably have risen to about twenty-eight million, with twenty-four and thirty-eight million as low- and high-end projections. By 2050, countries like France and Germany might be dealing with a Muslim population of twenty percent (in France, perhaps even twenty-five percent). At the same time, Jenkins puts the picture for the whole of Europe in perspective, so as not to give way to exaggerated pictures of the future of Europe: by 2025 the continent of Europe will perhaps have forty million Muslims out of a total population of 500 million, i.e. only eight percent. This total amount could increase to fifteen percent by 2050.118 The Muslim population will indeed increase in the short term, but not so drastically that it will soon become a majority in Europe. Prospects are that the number of Muslims will remain constant as a minority. Having said this, there might well be Muslim majorities in many provincial towns and some major cities in Western Europe. A case in point is Brussels. One fifth of its multiethnic 117 For a detailed discussion of this topic see: Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd, Le rendez-vous des civilisations. 118 Philip Jenkins, God’s Continent, p. 119. Chapter 10 1 7 1 Europe and the Gospel: Past Influences, Current Developments, Mission Challenges population of 1.2 million belongs to the Muslim community. If current developments continue (autochthon Belgians settling in suburbs, migrant families concentrating in the inner city), the administrative capital of Europe will have a Muslim majority within thirty years! 10.2. Muslim Presence Becomes an Issue The presence of Muslims arouses mixed feelings among the majority population. Public opinion about immigration largely focuses on this category. There is a widespread feeling among the majority population that Muslim ways of life are incompatible with the modern character of European societies. Repeatedly there are debates about ritual slaughter, women refusing medical care from male doctors, prayer in the streets in the absence of a mosque, the construction of mosques financed by Arab countries, the question of whether or not to allow minarets adjacent to these mosques including amplified daily calls to prayer, etc. A sensitive issue is whether Muslims should be allowed to wear headscarves and traditional dress that shows their religious allegiance in state schools, hospitals, and public buildings. In some countries Muslims can set up their own private schools in which Islamic religious education is an integral part of the curriculum. Other countries have problems with that. Similarly, there is debate about Islamic banks, hospitals, recreation areas, sport clubs, and so on, that would allow Muslims to maintain their religious customs. Reasons for misgivings Why would all of this be a problem? Isn’t religious tolerance one of the European core values? Why do secularised people feel ‘threatened’ by the visible presence of Muslims whereas they don’t seem to care much about the presence of African Christian migrants, nor about Asian communities practicing Buddhism or Hinduism? The main reason is that Muslim communities in Europe are often associated with Islam worldwide, in two regards. First, they evoke the image of societies dominated by traditional Islam, in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Most Europeans might find these countries interesting as tourists, but they would not like to live in a society like that.

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