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China-Latin America Relations in the XXI Century: Partners Or Rivals?

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China-Latin America Relations in the XXI Century: Partners Or Rivals? China-Latin America relations in the XXI century: partners or rivals? Uziel Nogueira uring the presidential campaign of 2002, Despite President Lula´s administration strategic bet (then) candidate Luis Inacio “Lula” da on China, there are doubts among intellectual and busi- Silva made an unprecedented trip to ness circles on whether Brazil is ready to face Chinese in- Beijing, the first ever by a presidential can- dustrial competition. Mexico, at this point, is being close- didate. That trip signaled Lula’s ambition ly scrutinized because it has taken the brunt of Chinese of creating a strategic relation with a group of emerging competition. Mexican companies are losing market share economiesD known as BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China in the United States, that absorbs ninety percent of their and South Africa. Lula’s vision was pragmatic, non-ideo- exports, and finding it increasingly hard to compete with logical and sought to position Brazil among the leading Chinese products in their own market.2 Current thinking countries of the world. He shared similar world affair about China´ s presence in the world economy goes like views as President Hu Jintao and was convinced that co- this: Export what China is demanding i.e., commodities operation would create prosperity for both nations. One and you surely win. Try to compete with Chinese manu- reason is that resource endowment factors make the two factured goods and you certainly lose. Economic data shed economies highly complementary. China is demanding some light on the impact of world competition, including large quantities of Brazilian commodity-based products China, in Latin America’s manufacturing industry.3 that suffer market access barriers in advanced countries. a. Latin America’s manufacturing value-added (MVA) Brazil offers a growing market for Chinese products and declined from $316.6 billion dollars in 2000 to $285.7 business opportunity for direct investment in infrastruc- billion in 2004, with the contribution to GDP also ture, energy and natural resources. The growing trade and contracting from 17.2% to 16.6%. economic links between the two countries in the last four years seems to vindicate President Lula’s strategic vision on The views expressed in this paper are the author’s sole respon- this promising relation.1 sibility and do not reflect necessarily those of IDB-INTAL. My gratitude to Dr Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh of the Institute of Uziel B. Nogueira is a Senior Integration Economist of the China Studies at the University of Malaya for the opportu- Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), posted at the nity to present the Latin American experience to the Asian Institute for Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean audience. Last, but not the least, my deep appreciation to (INTAL), located in Buenos Aires. He holds a PhD degree in my beloved wife Helga Westphal-Nogueira for her critical natural resource economics from Michigan State University, review of earlier drafts. Without her support this final work and can be contacted at [email protected]. wouldn’t be possible. CARTA INTERNACIONAL OUTUBRO 2007 3 b. Latin America’s manufactured exports in the same faced two exogenous shocks. First, a growing distance be- period grew by only 5.1% per annum, well below the tween the region’s governments and the administration of world average of 8.8%. As a result, its regional share George W. Bush over many political e economic issues. of world manufacturing trade plunged from 4.0% in Second, the dramatic entrance of China as a significant 2000 to 3.5% in 2004. economic and, in some instances, political partner of Latin c. In medium- and high-technology exports, the fastest America [p.46]. Regarding distance from Washington, growing and highest value-added end of trade, Latin frustration in Latin America was caused mainly by poor America’s world market share dropped from 3.8% in results of the economic reforms of the 1990’s, known as 2000 to 3.2% in 2004. the Washington Consensus. Also, the United States one- dimensional, simplistic approach to free trade agreements d. The regional share of manufactured exports as a per- as a solution to solve deep-seated social and economic centage of total exports has declined from 49.2% to problems in the region did not help to improve relations 48.2%, which shows an increasing trend towards low either. value-added commodity trade. Chinese long term strategic thinking is revealed in how Taking notice of Mexico’s travail, President Lula’s admi- Beijing is engaging the Latin American countries since the nistration is under political pressure to come up with so- 1970’s. One important aspect of this strategy was to send lutions to deal with Chinese competition. Critics point out young diplomats to study Spanish and learn about Latin that if history serves as a guide, the outlook is not particu- American culture in ‘El Colegio de Mexico´[p.21]. From larly promising for Brazil and Latin America. The question my own experience, Chinese diplomats posted in Latin then is whether the bilateral relation will flourish or turn America are second to none to any western country. They into rivalry-commercial conflict. This paper explores those are well trained, tackle problems with determination, listen points in three parts. The first one reviews recent resear- with care and incorporate local concerns in their decision ch done by the Inter American Dialogue (IAD) and the making process. Increasingly, knowledge of Latin America’s Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) on China-Latin culture and politics allows Chinese diplomats to avoid past America’s relation. The second part evaluates socioecono- mistakes made by western developed countries. Chinese mic weaknesses and strengths of MERCOSUR and Mexico. top leadership avoids empty promises and Presidential di- The third part depicts different assumptions- scenarios to plomacy is only used when concrete commercial and eco- evaluate China-Latin America´ s medium term trade rela- nomic deals are on the table for discussion. tions, followed by a summary and final comments. The report states that Brazil-China relations are truly strategic in nature because they encompass growth of tra- Part I. Literature Review de, cross country investment and technology cooperation. The impact of China in Latin America and the Caribbean Also, both countries seek a stronger and more influential has sparked a large number of academic papers, books and place in international affairs and welcome a more res- newspaper articles in the last five years. Recent research trained role by the United States [p.27]. A section on the China-Venezuelan relation concludes There are doubts among intellectual and business that President Hugo Chavez’s efforts to circles on whether Brazil is ready to face Chinese get closer political and economic rela- tions with Beijing, as a counter force to industrial competition. the United States, has few chances to succeed. The reason being that Beijing done by the Inter-American Development Bank and the needs a benign relation with Washington far more than a Inter-American Dialogue are prominent by their depth, strategic partnership with Venezuela [pp 42-44]. analysis and bibliography. Let’s start with IAD, a research Critics may take stock with the conclusion above, ar- organization, specialized in Latin America-Caribbean guing that it may hold true only in the short term. However, countries and located in Washington DC. The IAD study if President Chavez continues to win elections and holds to takes the interesting approach of looking into Sino-Latin power, in a way similar to Fidel Castro in Cuba, the re- American motivations-incentives for closer economic, lation might become strategic. Historical evidence shows 4 commercial, political and military cooperation. The un- that long-term economic links between countries lead, derlying hypothesis is whether China’s growing presence inevitably, to deeper cooperation in cultural, political and in Latin America should be considered a challenge to the military affairs. United States. In summary, the IAD report laid down a comprehensi- ve overview of geo-political, security-defense and econo- The 2006 Inter-American Dialogue Report mic issues of current Sino-Latin American relations. As in The study starts by pointing out that Latin America’s in- any complex and new phenomenon involving geo-politics, ternational relations, in the beginning of the XXI Century, economics and security-defense matters, there are no defi- 4 CARTA INTERNACIONAL OUTUBRO 2007 nitive answers on how the situation will evolve in the near the 15th century China was not only the world’s richest future. For the reader, everything comes down to what one country but also a technological leader. Current high rates believes based on ideology, knowledge and economic in- of growth will be accompanied by radical changes in the terest. Take, as an example, the intellectual framework in makeup of Chinese export competitiveness and import de- which the Chinese presence in Latin America is being de- mand. Countries enjoying a boom in commodity demand bated by think tanks located in Washington DC. from China, or facing stiff competition in basic textiles and Current thinking is divided into two groups. The first apparel, may find a different playing field ten years hence. one, with a radical view, thinks that China represents the China will be buying ‘lighter’ imports and selling much most serious challenge to Washington since the end of the more specialized and sophisticated textiles and apparel. Cold War, pointing out Beijing’s presence in the Panama Anticipating China’s position in the international value chain is as important strategically as ma- Mexican companies are losing market share in the naging the benefits and competitive chal- United States, that absorbs 90% of their exports, and lenges of today.
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