FFUUTTUURREE RREEGGIIOONNAALL NUUCCLLEEAARR FUUEELL CCYYCCLLEE COOOOPPEERRAATTIIOONN INN EAASSTT ASSIIAA:: EENNEERRGGYY SEECCUURRIITTYY COOSSTTSS AANNDD BBEENNEEFFIITTSS Report of the EAST ASIA SCIENCE AND SECURITY PROJECT Prepared for The John T. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Prepared by David von Hippel, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Tadahiro Katsuta, Jungmin Kang, Alexander Dmitriev, Jim Falk, and Peter Hayes Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim 2130 Fulton Street LM 200, San Francisco, CA 94117 Phone: (415) 422 5523 Fax: (415) 422-5933; e-mail:
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[email protected] [June 6, 2010] i Nautilus Institute Executive Summary Over the past two decades, economic growth in East Asia—and particularly in China, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Vietnam, Taiwan, and Indonesia—has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. As a recent, eye-opening example of these increased needs, China added more than 100 GW of generating capacity—equivalent to 150 percent of the total generation capacity in the ROK as of 2007—in the year 2006 alone, with the vast bulk of that added capacity being coal-fired, with attendant concerns regarding the global climate impacts of steadily increasing coal consumption. Even more striking than growth in primary energy use—and indeed one of its main drivers—has been the increase in electricity generation (and consumption) in the region. With the lessons of the “energy crises” of the 1970s in mind, several of the countries of East Asia—starting with Japan, and continuing with the ROK, Taiwan, and China—have sought to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply security by developing nuclear power.