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The Power of Oil Charting Uganda’S Transition to a Petro-State

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The Power of Oil Charting Uganda’S Transition to a Petro-State RESEARCH REPORT 10 Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme M a r c h 2 0 1 2 The Power of Oil Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State Petrus de Kock and Kathryn Sturman About SAIIA The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has a long and proud record as South Africa’s premier research institute on international issues. It is an independent, non-government think-tank whose key strategic objectives are to make effective input into public policy, and to encourage wider and more informed debate on international affairs with particular emphasis on African issues and concerns. It is both a centre for research excellence and a home for stimulating public engagement. SAIIA’s research reports present in-depth, incisive analysis of critical issues in Africa and beyond. Core public policy research themes covered by SAIIA include good governance and democracy; economic policymaking; international security and peace; and new global challenges such as food security, global governance reform and the environment. Please consult our website www. saiia.org.za for further information about SAIIA’s work. About the Govern A n c e o f A f r I c A ’ S r e S o u r c e S P r o G r A m m e The Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme (GARP) of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The programme contributes to policy governing the exploitation and extraction of Africa’s natural resources by assessing existing governance regimes and suggesting alternatives to targeted stakeholders. GARP examines the governance of a number of resource-rich African countries within the context of cross-cutting themes such as environmental change and sustainability. Addressing these elements is critical for Africa to avoid deepening the challenges of governance and reducing its vulnerability to related crises, including climate change, energy security and environmental degradation. The programme focuses on the mining, forestry, fisheries and petroleum sectors in four African countries: Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola and Sudan. © SAIIA March 2012 All rights are reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilised in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information or storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Opinions expressed are the responsibility of the individual authors and not of SAIIA. Cover photograph: Petrus de Kock ISBN: 978-1-919969-79-4 Please note that all currencies are in US$ unless otherwise indicated. C O n T e n T s About the authors 4 Abbreviations and acronyms 5 Executive summary and recommendations 6 Recommendations at a local level 6 Recommendations at a national level 7 Recommendations at a regional level 7 Chapter 1: Introduction 8 Chapter 2: Historical background: Warriors in politics and prophets in the bush 11 Introduction 11 Warriors in Ugandan politics 13 Alice Lakwena and Joseph Kony: Prophets in the bush 15 Conclusion 18 Chapter 3: Discourses of marginalisation and uncertainty in the Lake Albert region: A report from the field 21 Introduction 21 Theoretical and methodological background 23 The fieldwork: studying oil discourses in the societal nexus 25 Conclusion: Discourses on oil and constructed realities of social uncertainty 38 Chapter 4: More power to the people or the presidency? The effect of oil on democracy in Uganda 45 Introduction 45 Theories that oil and democracy don’t mix 46 Signs of patronage and the rentier effect 47 Signs of the repression effect 48 Conclusion 49 Chapter 5: Fuelling or dousing regional fires? Uganda’s rising power in Africa 51 Introduction 51 The Uganda–DRC nexus 52 Fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia, at home and in the DRC 55 Conclusion 57 Chapter 6: Conclusion 59 Endnotes 61 GOVERNANCE OF AFRICA’S RESOURCES PROGRAMME A b O u T T h e A u T h O r s Dr Petrus de Kock is a senior researcher in the Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). His research focuses on the intersection between political dynamics, economic trends, social change and conflict within the sphere of resource extraction (mining, oil and gas). His work aims to develop holistic analyses of market trends, political dynamics and the social impact of resource extraction. As an analyst, Petrus often engages with issues of conflict, political change, and political risk dynamics and their impact on societies and economic actors. Petrus is a regular contributor to media debates on contemporary trends in African and Middle Eastern politics, and he also maintains an active interest in the geopolitics of change in the contemporary world political–economic system. Petrus holds a PhD in Philosophy, with a focus on political philosophy and revolutionary change, from the University of the North (now Limpopo). He also holds a Master’s Degree in Political Science (cum laude) from the University of Pretoria. Petrus lectured in political science, international politics, and political philosophy at the University of the North (1995– 2000), and at Marygrove College in Detroit, Michigan (2000–2003). Dr Kathryn Sturman joined SAIIA in 2008 as deputy head of the Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme. She graduated with a Doctorate in International Relations from Macquarie University, Sydney, in 2008, and has an MA in Political Studies (cum laude) from the University of Cape Town (1996). Kathryn worked as a part-time lecturer at Macquarie University (2004–2008) and as a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria (2002–2004). Prior to this, she was a parliamentary researcher and speechwriter for the leader of the opposition in the Parliament of South Africa (1997–2001). SAIIA RESEARCH REPORT NUMBER 10 4 the po w er of oi l : charting ugan d A’ S transition to A petro - state A b b r e v i at i O n s A n d A C r O n y m s ADF Allied Democratic Forces AFDL Alliance des Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Congo-Zaïre AMISOM African Union Mission in Somalia BMU Beach Management Unit CBO community-based organisation CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EIA environmental impact assessment GDP gross domestic product HSMF Holy Spirit Mobile Forces IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IDP internally displaced person IEA International Energy Agency LDU Local Defence Unit LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MLC Mouvement pour la Libération du Congo MP Member of Parliament NAVODA Navigators of Development Association NGO non-governmental organisation NRM National Resistance Movement PWYP Publish What You Pay TFG Transitional Federal Government UGX Ugandan shilling UIC Union of Islamic Courts UNLF Uganda National Liberation Front UPDF Uganda People’s Defence Force SAIIA RESEARCH REPORT NUMBER 10 5 GOVERNANCE OF AFRICA’S RESOURCES PROGRAMME e x e C u T i v e s u m m A r y A n d r e co m m e n d at i O n s he report investigates the political impacts that oil is likely to have on Uganda. It Targues that oil production will have transformative effects on Uganda’s local, national and regional political relations. To better understand these impacts, the report attempts to contextualise oil developments within a historical perspective. Since gaining independence from colonial rule in 1962, Uganda’s military forces have played a significant role in politics. This is evidenced by a history of military-led coups, and by the survival in office of several post- independence presidents being dependent on creating a support base in the defence forces. In addition to the role the military has played in politics, the country has experienced several cases of armed insurgency and civil war. Since 1986, when the National Resistance Movement assumed power, Uganda has made significant advances in terms of territorial consolidation and the expulsion of armed opposition groups. However, the power of the military, and the influence it still exerts on political developments in the country, should be considered a potential danger as the country heads for oil production. Recent dynamics, including militarisation of the country’s border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), new arms purchases, and a history of military adventurism in the region, are important issues to monitor as the country advances towards becoming a petro-state. Extensive fieldwork in the Lake Albert region, conducted as part of this project, found that perceptions of economic and political marginalisation in communities directly affected by oil developments could lead to grievance politics emerging in a volatile zone. Discourses on fear and distrust of the government and private companies abound among the region’s communities. This includes concerns about the lack of a law governing the oil sector, fears of negative environmental impacts, and fears of forced community displacement to make way for oil infrastructure. Such fears and concerns shape perceptions regarding oil developments on Lake Albert, and could prove politically destabilising (at both a local and national level) if government and oil companies do not engage communities in co-operative governance initiatives. r e c o m m e n d A t I o n S A t A l o c A l l e v e l 1 To help prevent perceptions of socio-political and economic marginalisation taking root in villages of the Lake Albert region, the Ugandan government should institute open, transparent and participatory planning processes at the district and local government levels. 2 Oil companies and the Ugandan government should provide communities affected by oil exploration and production activities with information regarding development plans to allay fears of forced displacement in some communities, such as Ssebagoro, Kabaale and Kaseeta.
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