Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Omo Zone

logy & eo G G e f o o p l h a y n s r Enyew and Hutjis, J Geol Geophys 2015, 4:3 i c u s o DOI: 10.4172/2381-8719.1000208 J Journal of Geology & Geophysics ISSN: 2381-8719 Research Article Open Access Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Omo Zone, Ethiopia Enyew BD1* and Ronald Hutjis2 1Acadamia Sinica and National Central University, Taipe, Taiwan 2Earth System Science group, Wageningen Universitrsy, The Netherlands Abstract In Ethiopia rain-fed agriculture that is highly sensitive climate change and variability, accounts for much of the country’s GDP. This study covered two parts-the first part assesses the impact of climate change on biophysical parameters such as temperature and precipitation in South Omo zone and the second part portrays an over view of adaptation mechanisms to climate change the region. A Statistical downscaling model was developed and validated using large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and observed station data that was achieved in order to establish a statistical relationship between large-scale NCEP reanalysis predictor variables and locally observed meteorological variables. The relationship obtained was then used to generate the possible future scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation using large-scale predictor variables obtained from the GCM, HadCM3 outputs for A2 and B2 emission scenario. The downscaling was done for intermediate (2021-2050) and far future (2070-2099) periods. The validation results of the SDSM revealed a good agreement between simulated and observed values for temperate. But the model underestimates simulated precipitation. The impact assessment over the south omo projects an increase in precipitation in both periods. Both the minimum and maximum temperature are projected to increase in a range of 0.5°C to 1.20°C for both intermediate and far future periods. For future period the potential evapotranspiration could also increase due to the rise of temperature that leads to more severe drought. Enclosed range land management was proposed by study for climate change adaptation, for this a capacity building training was given for the pastoralist community on range land management. Developmental activities by the government on that part of the area could be a treat and an opportunity for the pastoralist community for adaptation of climate change. Keywords: Climate change; SDSM; South Omo dependent, ranging from rain-fed agriculture, to pastoral activities. According to a UNDP report, agriculture accounts for around 60% Introduction of overall employment in some countries and more than 50% of GDP Climate change is likely to happen with surface temperatures [4]. There have been notable droughts in Ethiopia throughout human having increased by about 0.74°C from 1906 to 2005 [1]. Observations history [5]. Previous droughts and the frequency of rainfall deviation show that there are changes in precipitation, occurring in the amount, from the average suggest that droughts occur every 3-5 and 6-8 years intensity, frequency and type of precipitation, as a result of direct in northern Ethiopia and every 8-10 years for the whole country [5]. influences of climate change. In both the developed and developing According to the Fourth Assessment Report released by the world, climate impacts are reverberating through the economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change droughts have become threatening water availability, hydro-power generation, extreme longer and more intense, and have affected larger areas since the 1970s; weather impacts, sea level rise, amongst others [2]. the land area affected by drought is expected to increase and water Climate change and variability has potential impact in Africa in resources availability in affected areas could decline as much as 30 general and East Africa in particular on different natural resources, present by mid-century [1]. such as water availability, which in turn greatly influences agriculture, Ethiopia is known to be highly vulnerable to drought, which is the energy, ecosystems and many other sectors. Even in the absence of single most important climate-related natural hazard impacting the climate change, the present population trends and patterns of water country from time to time. Major droughts in Ethiopia in recent times use indicate that more Africa countries will exceed the limits of their were in the late 1950s (in northern parts), in 1972/73 (northeastern in economically usable, land-based water resources before 2025 [1]. Tigray and Wollo), in 1984/85 (in major parts of the country), 1994 (in A projected increase in rainfall in East Africa, extending into the the low land pastoral areas), in 2000 (in the southern lowland pastoral Horn of Africa, is robust across an ensemble of models of which 18 areas), in 2002/3 (in major parts of the country), and in 2007/8 (in out of 21 models project an increase in the core of this region, east many areas in the highland and lowlands) [6]. of the Great Lakes [1]. Local and regional changes in the character of precipitation further depend on atmospheric circulations, which are in turn associated to climate change. For example, rainfall in east Africa is *Corresponding author: Enyew BD, Acadamia Sinica and National Central University, associated to the shift of the intra- tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), Taipe, Taiwan, Tel: +886 3 422 7151; E-mail: [email protected] which is largely influenced by El Nino (ENSO Index), Indian Ocean Received October 22, 2014; Accepted May 01, 2015; Published May 04, 2015 Dipole in during some seasons (IOD), factors that are also influenced Citation: Enyew BD, Hutjis R (2015) Climate Change Impact and Adaptation by chances in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) [3]. in South Omo Zone, Ethiopia. J Geol Geophys 4: 208. doi: 10.4172/2381- 8719.1000208 The underdeveloped and poor countries that are most vulnerable bearing the greatest impacts of climate change is [1] East Africa/N- Copyright: © 2015 Enyew BD, et al. This is an open-access article distributed East Africa is amongst the most vulnerable regions to climate change under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the impacts since economic growth in these countries is strongly weather original author and source are credited. J Geol Geophys Volume 4 • Issue 3 • 1000208 ISSN: 2381-8719 JGG, an open access journal Citation: Enyew BD, Hutjis R (2015) Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Omo Zone, Ethiopia. J Geol Geophys 4: 208. doi: 10.4172/2381- 8719.1000208 Page 2 of 14 The poor are likely to be hit hardest by climate change, and that time and social, economic and environmental considerations within a capacity to respond to climate change is lowest in developing countries country. Abebe [8] has analyzed the annual minimum temperature and and among the poorest people in those countries. It is clear that annual rainfall variability and trends observed over the country in the vulnerability to climate change is closely related to poverty, as the period 1951-2006. Annual minimum temperature is expressed in terms poor are least able to respond to climatic stimuli. Furthermore, certain of temperature differences from the mean and averaged for 40 stations. regions of the world are more severely affected by the effects of climate Climate change projection for three periods centered around the change than others. Generally speaking, vulnerability and adaptation years 2030, 2050 and 2080 for the IPCC mid-range (A1B) emission to climate change are urgent issues among many developing countries. scenario, the mean annual temperature will increase in the range of The objectives of this paper is to assess climate change impact and 0.9-1.1°C by 2030, in the range of 1.7-2.1°C by 2050 and in the range of adaptation mechanisms for the pastoralist community in South Omo 2.7-3.4°C by 2080 over Ethiopia (Figure 1) with reference to the 1961- Zone, Ethiopia. 1990 normal. A small increase in annual precipitation is expected over Climate Change in Ethiopia the country (Figures 2-4). Ethiopia has made only a marginal contribution to global greenhouse Climate change and pastoralists in Ethiopia gas (GHG) emissions.. The average Ethiopian is responsible for around In Ethiopia, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists live in the country’s one metric tons of CO per year. According to the business-as-usual 2 arid and semiarid rangelands of the south and east, and they compose scenario outlined by the government, GHG emissions in Ethiopia are nearly 13 percent of the population. Mobility is fundamental to expected to increase from roughly 150 Mt CO e, at present, to around 2 pastoralists’ strategies for coping with unpredictable rainfall, livestock 400 Mt CO e in upcoming years [7]. This will be mainly the result of 2 diseases, and the sustainable use of scarce natural resources. Pastoralists the expansions of agriculture, especially commercial farming and in Ethiopia face a number of challenges that threaten the sustainability husbandry, and deforestation, which is influenced by the expansion of their traditional practices. Trends indicative of climate change, such of cropland and population growth. Despite this expected doubling of emissions, Ethiopia would still be a minor producer of GHGs by as increasingly recurrent drought, floods, erratic rainfall patterns, and global standards. At the same time, a growing number of studies high temperatures are adding significantly to these stresses. show that Ethiopia is likely to be one of the country’s most severely Climate change has direct effects on livestock productivity as well affected by climatic changes associated with global warming. Ethiopia’s as indirectly through changes on the availability of fodder and pastures. high vulnerability is derived from the fact that its economy and the Climate determines the type of livestock most adapted to different livelihoods of most Ethiopians are extremely dependent on agriculture.

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