Maplestory 2: a Strong Boost to Earnings
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Information Technology / Japan 17 July 2015 Nexon 1 Buy (unchanged) 3659 JP 2 Outperform 3 Hold 4 Underperform Target (JPY): 1,800 2,100 Upside: 19.7% 17 Jul price (JPY): 1,754 5 Sell Korea’s PC café segment as of 14 July. consensus forecasts, to reflect the MapleStory 2: As an internally developed game recent rerating of its global peers. We (hence no royalties required to third- reaffirm our Buy (1) rating on Nexon, a strong boost party developers), MapleStory 2 as we believe it could become the stands to generate significant revenue first company in Korea to capitalise to earnings and high profitability in Korea (from on the huge market opportunities 2H15) and overseas (in 2016). from mobile and online games. Key Thomas Y. Kwon risk to our call: a sharp drop in core- (82) 2 787 9181 Mobile games: too many to fail. game user traffic in Korea and China. [email protected] In 2Q15, Nexon launched 5 mobile games (including Mabinogi: Dual and ■ How we differ Top of Tanker) in Korea; it plans to We are more positive on: 1) the 2015- • MapleStory 2 hits the market, roll out quality games such as 17E earnings contribution from has unique game features DomiNations in 3Q15. Nexon has mobile games, 2) Nexon’s Korea • New mobile games to start been aggressively taking steps to business, and 3) tax benefits from generating revenue from 2H15 increase its leadership in Korea’s Nexon’s affiliates in Korea. • mobile-game market through large- Reaffirm Buy (1); raise TP to scale promotions and TV Forecast revisions (%) JPY2,100 commercials. It has recently been Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E firing on all cylinders to lead the Revenue change 1.7 8.4 10.0 ■ What's new Net profit change 3.1 5.1 7.6 competition against Netmarble (not Core EPS (FD) change 3.7 6.3 8.8 MapleStory 2 has been rapidly listed) by offering all available game Source: Daiwa forecasts gaining popularity in Korea since its titles from Korea and overseas. In our launch on 7 July and should boost view, this aggressive business strategy Share price performance Nexon’s earnings from 2H15. We will yield benefits from 2H15 due to expect the launches of new online (JPY) (%) the resultant service synergies 1,800 150 and mobile games to solidify the between mobile platforms and online 1,550 135 company’s market leadership, games. We forecast revenue from 1,300 120 leading to a strong earnings-growth mobile games to record a CAGR of 1,050 105 cycle from 2H15. 800 90 12% over 2014-17 and account for Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 20% of Nexon’s total revenue in 2017. Nexon (LHS) ■ What's the impact Relative to TOPIX Index (RHS) MapleStory 2: rapidly gaining Strong quarters ahead. For 2Q15, popularity. According to Gametrics, we forecast total revenue to increase 12-month range 851-1,798 MapleStory 2 ranks among the top-4 by 18.7% YoY to JPY43.8bn, with an Market cap (USDbn) 6.04 online games in Korea, with a 3.97% 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 21.44 operating-profit margin of 28.9%, on Shares outstanding (m) 427 share in Korea’s PC café segment as of solid online-game sales in Korea and Major shareholder NXC (41.1%) 14 July, surging from 0.14% on 7 July. revenue contribution from its mobile By leveraging on its vast existing platform. We raise our 2015-17E EPS Financial summary (JPY) gamer base and given its strong brand by 3.7-8.8% to reflect the stronger- Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E equity, MapleStory’s peak time than-expected gamer traffic of Revenue (bn) 212 234 242 concurrent users could exceed 0.3m, MapleStory 2, higher-than-anticipated Operating profit (bn) 74 77 81 on our estimates, and continue to rise sales from new mobile games, and Net profit (bn) 57 61 64 over the summer vacation period Core EPS (fully-diluted) 133 143 150 enhanced game pipeline for 2015-17. EPS change (%) 82.5 7.3 4.7 (July-August). Local gamers are Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 22.1 21.2 23.9 excited about MapleStory 2, which ■ What we recommend PER (x) 13.2 12.3 11.7 allows users to create their own We raise our 12-month target price Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 DPS 101010 dungeons as well as customise to JPY2,100 (from JPY1,800), based characters and battle modes. With the PBR (x) 1.9 1.6 1.5 on a new 2015E target PER of 16x EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 3.6 2.9 launch of MapleStory 2, Nexon’s 5 (formerly 14x), the average of its ROE (%) 15.5 14.3 13.2 online games accounted for 27.6% of global peers, based on our and Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 4 Information Technology / Japan 3659 JP 17 July 2015 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Ex-Japan revenue portion (%) 82.6 85.1 82.3 76.6 82.7 88.3 86.0 86.8 Revenue contribution from Korea (%) 35.4 32.7 26.5 27.7 37.8 44.6 44.8 45.2 Mobile game revenue portion (%) 0.0 0.0 7.5 18.3 19.8 15.5 19.2 20.1 Profit and loss (JPYbn) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Korean customers Revenues 25 29 29 43 65 95 105 109 Chinese customers Revenues 22 33 48 64 67 71 72 72 Other Revenue 24 26 31 48 41 46 58 60 Total Revenue 70 88 108 155 173 212 234 242 Other income 00022111 COGS (12) (15) (19) (34) (44) (56) (62) (64) SG&A (28) (34) (39) (60) (69) (83) (96) (98) Other op.expenses 0 0 0 (13) (13) 0 0 0 Operating profit 30 38 51 51 48 74 77 81 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (0)0112133 Assoc/forex/extraord./others (1) (3) (8) (3) 6 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 29 35 44 49 56 76 81 84 Tax (8) (10) (15) (18) (23) (18) (19) (20) Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 (1) (0) (0) (0) Net profit (reported) 22 26 28 30 32 57 61 64 Net profit (adjusted) 22 26 28 30 32 57 61 64 EPS (reported)(JPY) 6,132 60 66 69 73 133 143 150 EPS (adjusted)(JPY) 6,132 60 66 69 73 133 143 150 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(JPY) 6,132 60 66 69 73 133 143 150 DPS (JPY) 300 0 5 10 10 10 10 10 EBIT 30 38 51 51 48 74 77 81 EBITDA 41 50 64 70 74 99 102 105 Cash flow (JPYbn) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Profit before tax 2935444956768184 Depreciation and amortisation 11 12 14 19 26 25 25 24 Tax paid (10) (14) (16) (21) (22) (22) (21) (21) Change in working capital 1 (1) (3) (1) (2) (11) (2) (1) Other operational CF items 2 8 4 14 0 (0) (0) (0) Cash flow from operations 34 40 43 60 58 68 82 87 Capex (2) (14) (4) (12) (8) (13) (16) (19) Net (acquisitions)/disposals (28) (2) (74) (39) (51) (25) (16) (17) Other investing CF items 1 (13) (36) 45 (3) 2 0 0 Cash flow from investing (29) (29) (114) (6) (62) (36) (32) (36) Change in debt 3 (2) 37 (2) (10) 5 1 1 Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 87000000 Dividends paid 0 (1) 0 (2) (4) (4) (4) (4) Other financing CF items (0) (1) (6) (9) (12) 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing 3 83 31 (13) (27) 1 (4) (4) Forex effect/others (4) (1) 7 13 10 0 0 0 Change in cash 4 93 (33) 54 (21) 32 47 47 Free cash flow 32 26 39 49 50 54 67 68 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts - 2 - Information Technology / Japan 3659 JP 17 July 2015 Financial summary continued … Balance sheet (JPYbn) As at 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Cash & short-term investment 33 132 126 182 218 289 336 384 Inventory 00000000 Accounts receivable 11 14 22 22 32 48 52 54 Other current assets 3 4 8 13 8 10 11 11 Total current assets 47 151 155 218 258 347 400 449 Fixed assets 716112121222528 Goodwill & intangibles 56 44 77 72 52 38 26 18 Other non-current assets 13 25 77 108 105 91 107 124 Total assets 124 236 320 419 437 498 558 619 Short-term debt 4 3 12 13 13 17 18 18 Accounts payable 1 1 7 10 10 12 13 14 Other current liabilities 18 21 26 27 34 37 40 41 Total current liabilities 22 25 44 50 57 67 71 73 Long-term debt 20 19 44 37 25 21 21 21 Other non-current liabilities 15 15 10 18 9 7 6 5 Total liabilities 57 58 98 106 92 94 97 99 Share capital 4 50 51 52 52 51 51 51 Reserves/R.E./others 59 124 167 257 288 347 404 463 Shareholders' equity 63 174 219 308 340 398 455 515 Minority interests 43455566 Total equity & liabilities 124 236 320 419 437 498 558 619 EV 743 626 625 554 499 420 365 309 Net debt/(cash) (9) (111) (70) (132) (180) (251) (298) (345) BVPS (JPY) 17,819 409 502 702 789 932 1,065 1,205 Key ratios (%) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales (YoY) 35.3 25.6 23.8 43.2 11.3 22.7 10.3 3.4 EBITDA (YoY) 44.4 22.7 28.3 8.8 6.4 32.9 3.0 3.5 Operating profit (YoY) 49.9 26.7 32.7 (0.2) (4.7) 54.1 3.9 4.7 Net profit (YoY) 22.5 19.0 9.9 7.1 4.7 80.0 6.8 4.7 Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 22.5 (1.4) 8.7 5.5 5.2 82.5 7.3 4.7 Gross-profit margin 82.9 82.9 82.8 78.0 74.4 73.7 73.7 73.7 EBITDA margin 58.5 57.2 59.3 45.0 43.1 46.6 43.5 43.6 Operating-profit margin 43.3 43.7 46.8 32.6 27.9 35.1 33.1 33.5 Net profit margin 31.0 29.4 26.1 19.5 18.4 26.9 26.1 26.4 ROAE 39.8 21.7 14.4 11.5 9.8 15.5 14.3 13.2 ROAA 19.8 14.3 10.2 8.2 7.4 12.2 11.6 10.9 ROCE 39.0 26.4 21.3 15.8 12.9 18.0 16.4 15.3 ROIC 48.5 44.3 30.0 18.9 16.2 35.6 37.3 36.4 Net debt to equity n.a.