Issues & Options May - 2012

Issue: I No: V

Leadership – Policies And Preparedness Assertive China: Strategic Dilemmas

Nehru’s Ignorance And Intellectual Arrogance Ad -holism At Its Worst

and many more ….

Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

Contents

Articles -

A Two-Front War In The Near Term Some Bold Ideas From Mr. Purno

3 Sangma - VIF Paper 75

- A. Surya Prakash Fast Track Top Down Defence Reforms - Immediate Need Of The Nation 14 Setting Up A Central University:

- Paper Prepared By Six Defence Experts Vision, Issues And Debates 80 Tibet In International Law And Practice - Anirban Ganguly 22 - PP Shukla A Tale Of Two Abductions In Odisha

The Arc Of The India-US Partnership 90 - Dr. N. Manoharan - Kanwal Sibal 38

President Zardari’s India Visit: A Need For An Indian Aerospace Command; Now And Here 94 Precursor To PM’s Pak Visit 55 - Satish Chandra - Radhakrishna Rao

Gilani’s Conviction: A Soft Constitutional Events Coup And The Crisis Of State 59

Seminar On - ‘Towards Reducing

- Sushant Sareen Earthquake Risks Of India’ 103

Do We Ever Think Before We Act, Or Is It Talk On - ‘Sufism And Indian Islam’

Ad-Hocism Zindabad? 66 107

- Dr. M.N. Buch

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 2

A Two-Front War In The Near Term

- VIF Paper - 23 September 2011

here are important weight and assertive behaviour of similarities between the China. From America to Vietnam T strategic situation in which to Singapore and the Philippines, India finds itself today vis-à-vis many of the countries are looking China and the situation which we at India to provide the numerical faced in the period 1956-62, which heft in any strategy to address the culminated in the humiliating war Chinese assertiveness. In a way, of October-November 1962. These this is reminiscent of the situation similarities would point to the in the late 1950’s, when temptation facing the Chinese democratic India was contrasted leaders as they themselves with communist China. Now more analyse their options in the near than ever, the comparison is term. This could lead them to economic too, and more and more conclude that their strategic analysts are coming to the dilemmas, especially in the Indo- conclusion that India has the Pacific region are best served by better medium-term prospects. an attempted repeat of the 1962 China, in fact, knows that too. war with India. It is the purpose of 3. The second parallel is to be this paper to try and understand found in the situation in Tibet. In the similarities and the logic that the late 1950’s, the challenge to may drive the Chinese leaders in Chinese authority was more the direction of the exercise of overtly military, from the hard power against India. Khampas and other rebel groups 2. The first similarity is the inside Tibetan areas. And the growing weight of India in Indo- Chinese were convinced of Indian Pacific affairs. More and more complicity in this armed rebellion countries are turning to India as a – confirmed in their eyes by the reassurance against the growing fact that His Holiness the Dalai

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 3 Lama [HHDL] fled to India and failure of the Great Leap Forward, was given asylum there. Today, and the subsequent famine, today the situation is a bit different, and there is a leadership transition the challenge to Chinese rule is under way. This transition is not less of a guerrilla nature. going altogether smoothly, with Nonetheless it is equally former Party leader, Jiang Zemin unsettling to Beijing, especially continuing to play some kind of since it also coincides with role behind the scenes, though it is growing restiveness in other not entirely clear what. But now, ethnic minority areas as well. And as then, the uncertainty is once again, there is a perception resulting in the growing influence that India is involved in the of the military in foreign policy unrest. In Chinese eyes, this is not and security matters. The just the simple fact that HHDL is uncertainty is also reflected in the living and operating freely in official acknowledgement that India, but also the fact that the there have been over 80,000 cases Prime Minister visited Arunachal of civil unrest for each of the past Pradesh, HHDL himself went to three years in China, most of them Tawang. Last, but also very over economic issues. However, important, we allowed the former some of them have taken political Speaker of the US House of overtones. All of these factors are Representatives to visit HHDL in adding up to the growing influence Dharamshala in 2008, during the of the security forces, and to the periodic troubles inside Tibet. assertiveness of the Chinese These troubles continue, and are postures abroad, which are gaining prominence in the world causing unease among the media. neighbours.

4. A third similarity relates to the 5. Another, fourth, similarity is leadership issues inside China also worth mentioning: this is the itself. Whereas in the late 1950’s, fact that then, as now, the security Mao was facing quiet questioning establishment was in denial about – as we now know – after the China’s intentions. The situation

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 4 is somewhat better today, thanks better account of itself, the to the fact that there are situation would have evolved independent media outlets, but differently. And that is the final, the official stance of playing down but key, aspect of the comparison the possible dangers is between the late 1950’s and today. reminiscent of the late 1950’s. It is We are, of course, much better no one’s case that we should whip prepared for any eventuality on up hostility, but factual the border with China; but China assessments are too is much better important; the The key word, of course, is prepared than it current secrecy is “successful” – had India given was in 1962. The leaving the public a better account of itself, the balance of power unaware of the situation would have evolved thus becomes differently. And that is the true state of final, but key, aspect of the crucial, and it is far affairs. comparison between the late from clear that the 1950’s and today. We are, of answer is of a kind 6. All of the course, much better prepared that would give us problems faced by for any eventuality on the comfort. China were border with China; but China addressed and/or too is much better prepared 7. There are some mitigated by the than it was in 1962. The important successful war of balance of power thus becomes dissimilarities too, crucial, and it is far from clear October-November from the earlier that the answer is of a kind 1962. India was no that would give us comfort. period, and longer equated unfortunately, they with China for also work against several decades afterwards; Tibet our interests. The most important similarly disappeared from the concerns Pakistan. In 1962, Ayub international discourse for Khan was tempted to take decades. And Mao went on to advantage of India’s difficulties, strengthen his position internally. but was held back by strong The key word, of course, is demarches from the Americans. “successful” – had India given a This was because the Americans

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 5 saw China as an overt enemy 8. What this implies is that this then, and did not want India to be time, our nightmare might well further humiliated by Pakistan. come true: a two-front war Today, it is unclear what the involving both China and American stand would be in any Pakistan. It is usually believed eventuality – sympathetic no that China does not wish to get doubt, but probably, not of the involved in Indo-Pak issues, kind and scale that we saw in especially wars. Supporters of this 1962. This would be especially point of view argue that both in true of an Obama Administration. 1965 and 1971, China stayed out Equally important, it would be fair of the action. There are two to argue that Pakistan will not problems with this view of the listen to the Americans as Ayub history of those wars. For one did. There is enough evidence of thing, in 1965, China did get this in the recent deterioration in involved, and gave us two relations between America and warnings in the course of the war Pakistan. There is also evidence of which lasted from 6 to 22 Pakistani hostility towards India, September. The second was a firm especially in the Army [which is ultimatum issued on 18 what matters], in the kind of September objecting to some ground level activity we are structures inside Sikkim [not a witnessing across the LoC and part of India then], and give us a elsewhere. In recent weeks, there 72-hour deadline. As it happened, has been some change of nuance, we did agree to a cease-fire within but this is because of their that time frame, whether because problems with America; several of the perceived threat from China press commentaries in Pakistan or because of the way things have suggested that neutralising developed in the UN Security India, through diplomacy, would Council, it is hard to be sure. But be a good idea while America was then too, China demolished some piling on the pressure. of our bunkers in Sikkim, just as they have done in recent months. The second is that in 1971, we had

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 6 the Indo-Soviet Treaty to deter the involving Kashmir would Chinese. The Soviets were then at automatically draw in the the peak of their anti-China policy, Chinese. They have not done this and their military power, and were by inadvertence, but with the full only looking for an opportunity to understanding of its implications. have a go at them. And the They have also been putting it out Chinese knew this; therefore they that their border with India is decided to lie low throughout the 2000 km long, thus leaving out all war which ran from 3 to 16 of J&K, and excluding it as part of December. The India in their Kargil war is on a The second is that in 1971, we perception. They different footing had the Indo-Soviet Treaty to have also stepped altogether, and not deter the Chinese. The Soviets up their rhetoric on really relevant to were then at the peak of their Arunachal, and anti-China policy, and their this issue. there are reports of military power, and were only their destroying 9. It is instructive looking for an opportunity to have a go at them. And the bunkers in both the also to look at the Chinese knew this; therefore eastern and ground situation. they decided to lie low western sectors Pakistani hostility throughout the war which ran within our side of may be taken as from 3 to 16 December. The the LAC. All this given, and requires Kargil war is on a different comes against the no proof or footing altogether, and not really relevant to this issue. backdrop of their evidence. Sixty rapid build-up of years of the infrastructure for logistics and engagement has provided all the basing of weapon systems that can evidence that any unbiased mind only be used against India. There could want. China has taken a are credible reports of the number of steps that need to be deployment of solid-fuelled highlighted in this context: first missiles on the border with India; and foremost, they have inducted reports too, of military air bases troops into POK under various along the India-Tibet border. guises, so that any action Finally, there are press

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 7 commentaries in their controlled historically, underestimated the media, of the need to apply force to Chinese willingness to resort to fix some of the challenges they are force. We have also kept the facing from their recalcitrant situation under wraps and been in neighbours, occasionally naming official denial until it is too late to India directly. Taken together, conceal or deny the gravity of the these are too many and too much situation. This pattern is part of a pattern to ignore. repeating itself.

10. For our part, 11. Thus a two- we are at the In the face of the build-up of front war is not the the Chinese infrastructure and trough of our unlikely event that forces, our preparedness is military readiness. decidedly sub-optimal. many China Budgets and Serviceability of most of our scholars claim it is. capital acquisitions major platforms is around Accordingly, it are at historic lows, 50%, spares and ammunition would be as well to and the low level of stocks are low, and manpower prepare for such a is short. We have, in the past, preparedness and contingency, historically, underestimated acquisition in the the Chinese willingness to however late 1990’s and for resort to force. We have also improbable it may much of this decade kept the situation under wraps appear at the has left us at our and been in official denial until moment. From the most vulnerable. In it is too late to conceal or deny perspective of the gravity of the situation. the face of the Beijing, the ideal This pattern is repeating itself. build-up of the window is in the Chinese next two years. For infrastructure and forces, our one thing, President Hu will preparedness is decidedly sub- remain Party leader for about a optimal. Serviceability of most of year more, and will continue as our major platforms is around Chairman of the Central Military 50%, spares and ammunition Commission until some time in stocks are low, and manpower is 2013. He has cut his political teeth short. We have, in the past, in Tibet, and will see the need to

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 8 settle the matter his way – if he standing in the global power can - before stepping down. stakes will be significantly dented Secondly, Obama, who has shown over the next few years, as its singular deference towards China troubles mount. [recent behaviour in APEC and 12. The bottom line is this: the East Asia Summit next two years or so are a window notwithstanding], will remain of opportunity for China for all the President at least until January reasons set out above. If it can 2013, and a new Administration [if prosecute a Obama loses in successful war November 2012] If China can repeat 1962, this against India, that will need a few time in concert with Pakistan, will put an end to a months to get its it will have achieved a major very major team in place. step in its quest for dominance challenge to its America will also in Asia. Equally clearly, there plans for remain preoccupied are strands of opinion in China that want to do some such predominance in with the Afghan thing, and this is reflected in Asia. India has withdrawal, and some of the comment that has been seen as the Pakistan can make been appearing in the Chinese only real counter- things difficult if media over the last few years. weight in terms of need be. And Teaching a lesson and using size of population, thirdly, the force are concepts that are now talked about on a regular basis area, GDP, and Pakistan Army in the media and think tanks. many other Chief will remain parameters of in harness till 2013, and the national power. If China can situation in the country is so repeat 1962, this time in concert unstable that any action to be with Pakistan, it will have taken would be best taken while achieved a major step in its quest Kayani, a known and experienced for dominance in Asia. Equally quantity, is still in charge. Not clearly, there are strands of unimportant, the Chinese opinion in China that want to do economy is also heading for a some such thing, and this is significant slowdown, and China’s

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 9 reflected in some of the comment public domain. All reports indicate that has been appearing in the that the serviceability of Army and Chinese media over the last few Air Force weapon systems as well years. Teaching a lesson and using as their ammunition stocks are force are concepts that are now well below what they should be if talked about on a regular basis in we are to fight a successful the media and think tanks. defensive war on two fronts. A little digression is in order here: 13. Probably the most important this paper is based on the issue then is – what can prevent assumption that any war will be such an eventuality? And there is sub-nuclear, given our no-first-use only one answer: the single reason doctrine. Nonetheless, our China will not undertake such strategic deterrent still has an action will be if they are not sure important role to play in the they can repeat 1962. We do calculus affecting the decisions of ourselves a disservice if we think our adversaries. Our nuclear otherwise. The reasoning set out weapons are a powerful deterrent above makes it plain that this to any attack. We need to speedily time, we are essentially on our refurbish our strategic forces own. Others can give us diplomatic particularly the number of nuclear support, but we shall have to warheads, MRBMs and sea defend ourselves on our own. The launched missiles. Subtle military balance is probably not as signaling that we are doing the adverse as in 1962, but this could same through the publicizing of be a mistaken assumption. After tests and meetings of the Nuclear all, we did not know the military Command Authority would make balance was adverse in 1962 until it clear to the adversary that India the shooting actually started. has developed a credible deterrent Could we be in error again? and if pushed to the wall would be 14. The above question is one for willing to use the same. This, in the national security apparatus to the final analysis, is what we went answer. An outsider can only go by nuclear for, and should play a part the information available in the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 10 in deterring any Sino-Pak recent years. Typically, adventure against us. these men retire in their late 30’s and are fit 15. In order, then, to step up our enough even in their 40’s. conventional capability, we need to This will readily provide undertake some very urgent a pool of at least 100,000 measures. It is well known that men, or more if required, the main weapon systems are who are well-trained; below 60% serviceability, that we are short of critical spares, and iii) on a war footing – that our ammunition will not even literally – we must bring last for a month-long war. up the serviceability of our weapon systems and Accordingly, it would be desirable ammunition stocks to the to undertake the following steps levels required for on a crash basis so as to deter and, deterring an enemy, or if deterrence fails appropriately being able to blunt an address an attack on us: attack should deterrence i) since the main purpose of fail. The needs of the a Sino-Pak attack will be Army and the Air Force to inflict an unequivocal should come first in this military defeat on India, regard; as happened in 1962, our minimal aim would be well served by a military iv) speedy acquisition of the stalemate. As in the case capital equipment that is of Vietnam in 1979, lack most badly needed – of an outright victory will medium guns, tanks, and be seen as a setback for additional fighter China, and a boost for aircraft, night-vision India; equipment, and weapon- ii) the manpower shortage locating radar, to name can be addressed by re- just the bare minimum. hiring some of the OR’s Equally, if we are to raise that have retired in the number of troops, especially for the Army,

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 11 they will need to be could result in a DPP equipped with small victory, which would also arms and shoulder-fired demand increased arms. attention from the mainland. However, none v) it would be good to keep of this will really alter the Pakistanis and the the thrust of this paper – Chinese occupied that the American-led elsewhere too. For strategy in the Indo- Pakistan, clearly, Pacific region vis-à-vis Afghanistan is going to China needs India as a be a major concern in the lynch-pin, and therefore coming years, and the we are going to be a, if fact that their relations not the, major target for with America are China’s strategic riposte. deteriorating opens It would be well also in opportunities to keep this context to recall them embroiled in the what former President Afghan end-game. Bush said in Mumbai Baluchistan is another recently: that India is the area where Pakistan is Number Two target for vulnerable, and the China, after America situation ripe for keeping itself. Add to this that it off-balance. China, for there is little they its part, is vulnerable in (China) can do about Tibet, of course, but also America, and it would be in Sinkiang. We should logical to expect that also watch developments India will feel the heat in Taiwan, where from them. Presidential elections are due early next year, and

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 12 vi) finally, but very capacities available to important, we have us in this direction. steadily reduced our intelligence capabilities 17. To recapitulate, this paper over the years. This tries to show that there is a real applies particularly to danger of war being forced upon us our tactical capabilities within the next two years. The on the border, which probability may not, at present, have been sharply rate above 30% - but that is a high curtailed in recent times. enough probability to warrant This can, urgent action. Our and Our usual pattern of behaviour usual pattern of has been to scramble for spares must, be behaviour has been rectified and ammunition after the to scramble for in short shooting starts and that is too spares and order. late to affect the military outcome. If we are prepared, ammunition after

and seen to be prepared, to the shooting starts 16. neutralize a joint China- and that is too late There Pakistan military move, then to affect the are, of there will be no such action by military outcome. course, them. On the other hand, our If we are prepared, covert under-preparedness is an invitation to them to act. and seen to be actions prepared, to too that neutralize a joint China-Pakistan can be undertaken – military move, then there will be indeed, should be no such action by them. On the undertaken – to keep other hand, our under- our adversaries off preparedness is an invitation to balance. However, them to act. these are outside the scope of this paper, and there is also the back to content question of the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 13 Fast Track Top Down Defence Reforms - Immediate Need Of The Nation - Paper Prepared By Six Defence Experts

he unsavory leak of the 1962; and the Kargil conflict, Army Chief’s letter to the when the then Army Chief said T Prime Minister about the that the Army will fight with what lack of preparedness and it has. hollowness of the Army has resulted A similar situation into a fierce The K Subrahmanyam has once again national debate, Committee in the wake of come to light. The along with a feeling Kargil operations, over 10 K Subrahmanyam of being let down years ago, had concluded that Committee in the and betrayal by the “an objective assessment of the wake of Kargil leadership of the last 52 years will show that the operations, over 10 country. country is lucky to have years ago, had scraped through various concluded that “an No subject in India national security threats objective arouses more without too much damage assessment of the emotions and unity except in 1962. The country last 52 years will in the Country can no longer afford such ad- show that the than the aspect of hoc functioning”. country is lucky to National security. have scraped Our people are justified in feeling through various national security aggrieved, because the reported threats without too much damage state of unpreparedness appears except in 1962. The country can to exist for all the three forces. In no longer afford such ad-hoc the last 65 years of our functioning”. It recommended a independence, we have fought five number of important reforms, wars and additionally thrice in which unfortunately have been this span of time, our Armed given only lip service. There has Forces have been found to be in a been no meaningful state of being under equipped and implementation of the committee under prepared. Examples being recommendations. The subsequent

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 14 Group of Ministers disquiet in our relationship with recommendations are also China; and with India’s quest to languishing unactioned to date. emerge as a regional power, we The ground reality is that we have no option but to be fully continue to remain in a state of prepared for a ‘Two Front inexplicable complacency. Our Conventional War’. This is the political leadership continues to be only recipe to save embarrassment passive and indifferent to matters and avoid war. Remember the age of National Security. Some old dictum that ‘friendship can be strategic analysts have been possible only amongst equals’. propounding the theory of reduced With our present rate of yearly chances of a conventional war in defense allocations, the defense today's potential environment, differential especially due to With our borders unsettled between us and the deterrence with China and Pakistan; with China would rise to provided by nuclear definite disquiet in our more than USD 1 weapons. This is a relationship with China; and trillion worth of fallacy because with India’s quest to emerge as equipment/expendi nuclear weapons a regional power, we have no ture in next 12-13 are not actually option but to be fully prepared years. weapons of war but for a ‘Two Front Conventional are of strategic War’. This is the only recipe to It is nobody’s case restraining value. save embarrassment and avoid that a developing war. A ready example of country like ours this is the cold war should spend so situation where both USA and the much that it becomes an then USSR maintained large unacceptable burden on the conventional standing forces in all exchequer and adversely affects three dimensions of land sea and development. However there is a air. If that was not so, America definite requirement of making up would not have gone through those the shortfall of the bottom line traumatic conventional war requirements of the three services, experiences in Korea, Vietnam, over next 10 years, which as Iraq etc. derived from the open sources, amount to 150 US billion dollars With our borders unsettled with worth of equipment (at today’s China and Pakistan; with definite costs). Even if we start today, the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 15 process will be completed only in unacceptably weak. This warrants 20-25 years. While the fund looking beyond the existing allocations are crucial, even more systems to evolve new ones to crucial is the requirement to cater to the demands of our provide the ability to spend. This peculiar conditions. The present implies that the decision makers controversy is a manifestation of should not suffer from the fear of frustration at the present being hounded even well into their organizational structures and retirement. In the Post-Bofors work ethos which is in dire need of mindset, where every defense drastic changes immediately. acquisition is being considered a There is a grave dichotomy scandal, all our defense between accountability that rests acquisitions have almost come to a with the Service Chiefs and the standstill. Even the much authority of capital acquisitions heralded Rafale deal with all its and budget management that is exemplary preparatory work over vested in the Political/Civil 5-7 years, has now been subjected bureaucracy. This is the critical to an inquiry because of some primary cause of tension and complaint by a MP. This freeze in discord between the MOD and the decision-making coupled with the Military. The lack of inadequacy of funds for institutionalised integration of the modernization has brought us to a Services headquarters and the pass, where National Security has MOD till today is a glaring been relegated to a state of example. danger. Before we look for solutions let us be clear that the Let us broadly analyse as to what present environment of distrust needs to be done. First and fueled mainly by the disappointed foremost, there is a requirement of arms dealers will not allow ensuring that the entire acquisitions in a manner, which is leadership of the country is both expeditious and which entrusted with the responsibility results in comprehensive to oversee policies and ensure capability building. At best we preparedness related to the Armed can continue, with the present day Forces of the country. In a practice of making ad hoc democratic country like ours this purchases of whatever is available should be the order of the day out of a block of equipment. Such where the National governments a situation makes India’s security change every five years or even

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 16 earlier. Coalitions have become must be granted legislative powers the rule rather than the exception, over defense policies, equipping and therefore the introduction of and preparedness. this new system is of paramount importance. This will enable The Chiefs of Staff of the three continuity and consistency in Services would be required to defense policies, irrespective of the make annual/bi-annual/ or on as Government in power. This required basis, presentations to change is especially relevant, as them in camera, in the presence induction of new weapon systems of all members of the Cabinet has a long Committee of gestation period of Security, on the 10 – 15 years. There is an immediate state of Capital Military need to create a Supra- preparedness of the acquisitions go governmental Body. This defense forces. The through a process could be a "National governments of the of acceptance of Defense Council (NDC)” day will be obliged necessity, to implement and that should comprise identification and execute the selection of leaders of all major decisions of the weapon/systems. political parties in the NDC. This will The time line of parliament. They must be bring in total acquisition and granted legislative powers unanimity in induction is over defense policies, decision making at directly related to equipping and the National level. production capacity This would also preparedness. of the feeder prevent uncalled country. for partisan Equipping, training, doctrine approach of the political parties. formation and operationalization Governments may suffer from of the equipment are part of the their compulsions but no gestation. There is an immediate opposition party will like to be a need to create a Supra- party to lack of defense governmental Body. This could be preparedness. This a "National Defense Council recommendation has been (NDC)” that should comprise configured somewhat on the lines leaders of all major political of US Senate Committee of Armed parties in the parliament. They Services. This arrangement will

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 17 be without prejudice to all other The third, crying need is of the existing arrangements.. much awaited restructuring of the command and control set up in the The second important change three services. Thelate relates to Civil – Military relations Subrahmanyam consistently and and the much warranted the Group of Ministers in 2001, Organizational and structural had recommended the need of a changes in the Ministry of Defense Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Armed Forces. The Three and Theatre Commanders. We Chiefs must start reporting are badly lacking in respect of directly to the Raksha Mantri and joint planning for operations, joint at least once in six operational months to the planning, joint The second important change Prime Minister, or training and even relates to Civil – Military more often if they joint procurement; relations and the much wish to seek adopting these will warranted Organizational and his/her bring in total structural changes in the intervention on Ministry of Defense and the integration in all urgent matters. Armed Forces. The Three aspects; with This will ensure Chiefs must start reporting significant savings easy and smooth directly to the Raksha Mantri in avoidable political control and at least once in six months infructuous, over the Armed to the Prime Minister, or more duplicated Forces, removing often if they wish to seek expenditure. an unwarranted his/her intervention on urgent Instead of the layer of friction in matters. services operating between because of separately we must the bureaucracy. This will also have joint Theatre commands. facilitate smooth integration of the Andaman & Nicobar Command three services with the Ministry of and Strategic Forces Command Defense, unlike the present are in existence and have been cosmetic arrangement of calling it found to be very successful ‘Integrated Headquarters of models. The time has come to Ministry of Defense’ (Army brush aside all opposition and Headquarters etc) without any reservations with regard to this substantial changes. concept. Not many will perhaps know that a Headquarters for Chief of Defense Staff has already

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 18 been in existence for the last 10 priority to the merit as the first years without a head. It criteria. contributes reasonably well despite the handicap of being The fourth area of improvement without the top man. It only relates to the aspect of vindicates the immediate need for procurements. Attempts in this India to have a Chief of Defense regard by all the well meaning Staff. Six decades plus of civil committees, which have been control and an exemplary military periodically constituted, to draw model has sustained our secular out effective measures have failed stable democracy. The CDS would to produce results, the latest of only further strengthen the edifice them being the ‘Committee of of our democracy along with Defence Expenditures’ in 2009. It robust and accountable National has failed to produce any Security arrangements. improvements in the speed and success of procurements. Large Similarly all flag rank officers chunks of funds go unutilized and must serve in inter-services even this year the Army had to appointments as a mandatory surrender over Rs 4000 crores requirement for promotions. In from their capital budget. order to have the very best officers Procurements are just not as Theatre Commanders and possible, with the kind of existing, subsequently as the Chiefs, it is “Them (Services) and Us” most important to introduce a approach (the bureaucracy selection system for the Theatre representing the government); Commanders appointments with responsibility resting with through a selection board, headed the Armed Forces and authority by the Chief of Defense Staff and (as laid down in the present rules comprising the three Service of business), with the Chiefs. As a matter of fact, this is bureaucracy. The fear of the very first restructuring that subsequent backlash for the needs to be introduced. The decision makers in today's present system of the senior most environment results in inordinate Lieutenant Generals, and their delay. Let us accept the fact that equivalents being promoted to the present system will not Army Commanders, has been deliver. We need to evolve new found to be wanting and this rules to empower the decision change will ensure overriding makers to not give in to the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 19 blackmail by the arms wheelers almost 10 percent of the total arms dealers. To overcome this sales in the world. Besides paying problem, we need to introduce a exorbitantly, we are being held to system of ‘pre-audit’, wherein the virtual ransom in times of representatives of CAG and CVC emergency, when the supplier will form part of the procurement countries hugely jack up the teams. This system will not allow prices. Added to all these ‘post decision’ complaints. This problems is the aspect of ‘transfer will not impede procurements. of technology’ (TOT), wherein The ‘ability to spend’ has to be despite the very best of efforts, the genuinely introduced in the spirit of the contracts is not procurement system. Defense fulfilled to the levels, anywhere procurements close to the original being complex, can The fifth recommendation agreements. Also not be rigidly relates to the crying need of the transfer of strait-jacketed. indigenization. We are the crucial parts of the These may work for biggest importer of arms in technology are the other the world; almost 10 percent of invariably withheld Ministries like the total arms sales in the up or inordinately Coal, Health, and world. Besides paying delayed; thereby Power etc. but not exorbitantly, we are being held compelling the for Defense. The to virtual ransom in times of buyers continued ‘National Defense emergency, when the supplier dependence on the Council’ will have countries hugely jack up the seller. The answer to approve this prices. lies in moving special towards dispensation which indigenization will also take away all the rapidly. That will be possible, only politicking in this field. Lastly, all if we open up the arms industry to the major countries have big and our own private sector. If we can specialized procurement trust the foreigners, why not our organizations. We also need to own industry? They can also help work towards that. this process by instituting research and developing dual The fifth recommendation relates technologies, which will bring in to the crying need of maximum economy. We should indigenization. We are the biggest aim towards at least 75 percent of importer of arms in the world; indigenization in next 15-20

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 20 years. In the long run, India considerably reduced with a sense should also promote arms exports. of pride and ownership that is top Only then can we turn this heavy down and inclusive. This is my defense expenditure burden into a prayer. golden goose generating big business. The time to appoint further committees/commissions has long 10. In the interim, besides the gone by. We have to act united above critical long term measures, and expeditiously, as our country there is a requirement for crash has always done in such situations actions within the next 1-2 years in the past! in removing deficiencies in all types of ammunition including These recommendations have been missiles, repairing and preparing worked out by the VIF Defense of unserviceable assets, upgrading Syndicate comprising of the the most critical equipment and following officers— finally removing night blindness in respect of all the three 1. Gen (retd) N C VIj services. The much delayed Strike Corps, comprising a minimum of 2. Lt Gen (retd) Ravi Sawhney two divisions, must be raised in next two years for the North – 3. Air Marshal (retd) S S East to attain a genuine Inamdar dissuasive capability. These immediate requirements are a 4. Vice Admiral (retd) Barry strategic imperative in order to Bharatan obviate chances of any national embarrassment. 5. Lt Gen (retd) J P Singh

Having said all this, let me 6. Brig (retd) Rahul Bhonsle unequivocally state as a former soldier, that the Indian Armed ALL INFORMATION USED IN Forces will not consider any price THIS ARTICLE IS STRICTLY too high to safeguard the national FROM OPEN SOURCES honor in a case of confrontation. It is however a price that can be back to content

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 21

Tibet In International Law And Practice - PP Shukla

ince Tibet is not the 1950, Lok Sabha same as China, it The plan of study is to divide “S should ultimately be Tibetan history into three parts: the wishes of the people of Tibet one, prior to the 19th Century, the that should prevail and not any second from the 19th century to the legal or constitutional arguments. beginning of the 20th century, and That, I think, is a valid point. finally, the 20th century itself, Whether the people of Tibet are including and bringing the study strong enough to assert their up to the current period of the 21st rights or not is another matter. century. Whether we are strong enough to see that is done is also another The period before the 19th century matter. But it is a right and is important, of course, but so proper thing to say and I see no much happened in the subsequent difficulty in saying to the Chinese years that the relevance of the government that whether they evidence from further back have suzerainty or sovereignty becomes debatable. Much of the over Tibet, surely, according to evidence from the Chinese side is any principles, the principle they also sketchy over this period and proclaim and the principles I consists of tokens of control which uphold, the last voice in regard to are not relevant to the current Tibet should be the voice of the practice of diplomacy or people of Tibet and nobody else.” international law. For instance, the claim that they appointed

representatives [who were Jawaharlal Nehru, 7 December,

* PP Shukla – Joint Director, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 22 considered as Ambassadors by the out. The first was the relationship Tibetans] or awarded titles is between Tibet and Nepal. Nepal unconvincing. Britain still awards invaded Tibet [its second invasion titles to countries like Australia in the 19th Century] in 1854 and and even appoints the Governor- the Chinese central authorities did General. But no one would accept nothing to help Tibet, which was any claim of British sovereignty forced to conclude a Treaty in 1856 over Australia. Besides, China with Nepal which provided for a itself was ruled tribute – the sum during this period of Rs 10,000 by the Manchus, Nepal invaded Tibet [its annually, a large th who were second invasion in the 19 sum those days – to Century] in 1854 and the themselves non- Chinese central authorities did be paid by Tibet. [Han] Chinese, so nothing to help Tibet, which Although the it is questionable was forced to conclude a Treaty Treaty paid whether their in 1856 with Nepal which obeisance to the territories may provided for a tribute – the Emperor of China, logically be sum of Rs 10,000 annually, a the fact is that large sum those days – to be considered paid by Tibet. Although the Beijing neither Chinese. It would Treaty paid obeisance to the helped in the war, be akin to India Emperor of China, the fact is not did it play any claiming that Beijing neither helped in role in the Treaty Afghanistan the war, not did it play any signing. This is not because the role in the Treaty signing. the attribute of a Mughals controlled sovereign. that territory or Burma because Nonetheless, the Beijing the British did. authorities use this Treaty, among others, to lay claim over both Tibet The 19th century however, saw and even Nepal. The latter is some important events, and these dormant now, but the potential for are important indications of the trouble exists and needs to be nature of the relationship between recognised. Tibet and China. Two events stand

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 23 This particular aspect of Tibetan even if true, it would only sovereignty was brought out by corroborate the Indian position the Indian officials in their that China recognised the treaty- negotiations with China which making powers of Tibet. For it took place in the late 1950’s and is would mean that China assisted reflected in the following extract Tibet in directly negotiating a from the Officials’ Report. treaty which, among other things, granted extra-territorial rights to Excerpt from the Officials’ Report Nepal. (1960): If the Chinese felt the need to …during the 300 years prior to abrogate the Treaty in 1956, it 1950, Tibet, whatever her status, means that they acknowledged its had enjoyed the right to sign validity till the time of abrogation. treaties and have direct dealings with her neighbours on boundary For the second event, the clock questions, was clearly established needs to be turned back a little by history. The Indian side had further. A few years earlier, already drawn attention to the starting in 1841, a war broke out treaties of 1684 and 1842 signed between Tibet and the Dogra by Tibet with Ladakh. In 1856, rulers of Kashmir. This resulted in she signed a treaty with Nepal, Letters of Agreement being signed and the People's Government of between the warring parties, China themselves recognised the under which the boundaries validity of this treaty, because between Ladakh and Tibet were they felt it necessary to abrogate it clarified and recognised and trade in their treaty, signed exactly a relations were regularised. hundred years later, in 1956 with Ladakh also agreed to pay an the Nepal Government. It was annual tribute to Tibet. Again the asserted by the Chinese side that central authorities played no role the Chinese Amban in Tibet had in the entire episode. The assisted in the conclusion of the importance of this agreement 1856 treaty. This, too, was an between Ladakh and Tibet in incorrect statement of facts; but further establishing Tibetan

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 24 sovereignty is also brought out in Lama was selected in the usual the Officials’ Report, as quoted way by the Regent. above. The final piece of evidence dates to

the last three decades of the 19th Another aspect worth mentioning Century, and involves British is the attempt at about this time attempts to establish direct by Beijing to regulate the selection relations with Tibet. A bit of of the Dalai Lama. This happened background would be helpful here. in 1793, and the The strategic central part of the setting was the regulations The final piece of evidence rapid expansion of dates to the last three decades introduced by two major Empires of the 19th Century, and Beijing read as involves British attempts to – the British and follows: “When the establish direct relations with the Russian – reincarnate boy has Tibet. A bit of background towards the heart been found, his would be helpful here. The of Asia. The British name will be strategic setting was the rapid Empire expanded expansion of two major written on a lot, west and north Empires – the British and the which shall be put Russian – towards the heart of from Calcutta, the into a golden urn Asia. The British Empire Russian south and bestowed by the expanded west and north from east from St central Calcutta, the Russian south Petersburg. They government. The and east from St Petersburg. met, or drew close, high commissioners along the Central will bring together appropriate Asian redoubts. Tibet at this time high-ranking Living Buddhas to was playing host to the famous determine the authenticity of the historical figure Agvan Dorjiev, a reincarnate boy by drawing lots Buryat monk who arrived in from the golden urn.” However, Lhasa in 1880, and soon became a the Tibetan authorities ignored debating partner of the Dalai this and in 1804, the Ninth Dalai Lama. The contemporary British media were replete with articles

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 25 about the Russian advance into concerned and refused to be bound Tibet through the agency of by its terms. A decade and a half Dorjiev. For long afterwards, it later, they tried again through a was doubted whether the Russians second agreement with China, the and Dorjiev were indeed playing Convention of March 1890, this any political role, but recent time in order to regulate the disclosures make it clear that boundaries between Sikkim and there were indeed strategic and Tibet, as well as [through the military matters under Annex] to regulate trade between consideration between Russia and British India and Tibet. However, Tibet, through the mediation of this agreement, like the previous Dorjiev. However, the British had effort by the British to work their own plans and fears, and through the Chinese, did not turned to the Chinese Empire in succeed either, and for the same order to use its supposed suzerain reason. The Tibetans refused to status to work their strategy in acknowledge the validity of any Tibet. treaty or arrangement that did not directly involve them. Meanwhile, The British had been trying to they were steadily moving to open relations with Tibet at this accept Russian protection, under time, mainly to counter the the guidance of Dorjiev. The Russian moves described briefly Russians were already emerging above, and were doing this by as perhaps the major strategic attempting to involve the Chinese adversary to the British in Asia. on their side. With this aim they Accordingly, after having waited signed an agreement in 1876 [the for the Beijing connection to Chefoo Agreement the main deliver, the British were forced to objective of which was to let the conclude that this was not going to British missionaries enter China, work, and they had to move only one paragraph was about independently and directly on Tibet], but the Tibetans refused to Tibet. This was the genesis of the accept the validity of this Younghusband expedition in 1903- agreement as far as they were 04. The spur was the failure of

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 26 Beijing to deliver on its part of the convenience to both parties”. At agreements signed in the late 19th the end of the expedition, the two Century, and the real reason was sides signed the Anglo-Tibetan the success of the Russians in Convention on 7 September 1904. dealing directly with Tibet. The Thus, the Tibetans were once more Russians did not entirely ignore left to fend for themselves in the Beijing, and did sign a separate face of a military attack, without agreement with China, but it was any aid from China. And once clear that they were focusing on again, Tibet entered into a treaty working directly with Tibet, which with a foreign power without any was responding role for Beijing. positively. The provisions of Lord Curzon was the Viceroy the Convention of This was the and he declared that “the so- 1904 also make situation the called suzerainty of China over Tibet [is] a constitutional revealing reading; British faced at the fiction, a political affectation the preamble dawn of the 20th which has been maintained admitted that Century, and because of its convenience to “doubts and decided that they both parties”. At the end of the difficulties about had to take direct expedition, the two sides the meaning and action, since China signed the Anglo-Tibetan Convention on 7 September validity” [emphasis was unable to 1904. added] had arisen deliver on the over the 1890 commitments agreement with China [a polite undertaken over the past twenty way of recording the fact that years. The result was the Tibet was refusing to recognise Younghusband expedition. Lord and therefore to implement that Curzon was the Viceroy and he agreement]; the rest of the Treaty declared that “the so-called essentially ratified the substance suzerainty of China over Tibet [is] of the earlier agreements between a constitutional fiction, a political Britain and China on the border affectation which has been between Sikkim and Tibet, and maintained because of its allowed for trade rights for British

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 27 India. Finally, another important and agreements entered into by outcome was to check Russian China on behalf of Tibet could not influence in Tibet and Tibet was be implemented because Tibet required not to cede or lease any would not acknowledge China’s part of its territory to any foreign right to make any commitments power, and to remove all foreign on its behalf. And it demonstrated representatives, and to extend no that such commitments would economic concessions to any remain unimplemented. foreign power. Russian influence The 20th Century thus opened with was thus also blocked, though Tibet becoming an Dorjiev remained active focus of the active in Tibet for The 20th Century thus opened power play some time longer. with Tibet becoming an active focus of the power play between the Great [In the 1940’s the between the Great Powers, and Powers, and with British repeatedly with China having played no China having told the Tibetan role that a sovereign or played no role that suzerain would be required to Foreign Bureau a sovereign or play, though for completeness, that they signed it may be mentioned that suzerain would be the Convention and Manchu China did help Tibet required to play, then left after a few in 1792 during the war with though for weeks. They never the Gorkhas. completeness, it acted as an may be mentioned invading power that Manchu China which remains in the invaded did help Tibet in 1792 during the territories. They wanted to show war with the Gorkhas. the difference of attitude between But more was to come. Not for the China and HMG] last time, differences arose What this episode shows again is between the Viceroy in India and that China played no role in London over policy in Asia. In defending Tibet, and no role in London, the view was that Britain treaty-making by Tibet. What is had to work diplomatically with more, it also showed that treaties both China and Russia, the former

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 28 to block the Russians in Tibet, the interesting sidelight on the latter to prepare for the looming diplomacy of those days is that challenge from Germany. Thus, when the Kaiser Wilhelm the Lhasa Convention between examined the text of the Anglo- Britain and Tibet was reaffirmed Russian Convention, he minuted by China in the British-Chinese on the text that this was clearly Convention of 1906. This aimed against Germany.] “confirmed” the 1904 Convention This was the tangled situation in and stated that the trade the early 1900’s, when the Chinese concessions granted under the Empire collapsed in 1911, and was 1904 agreement would not be replaced by a republican available to any other state, other government. One of the early than China, thus addressing the developments following this was fear of Russian influence in Tibet, the Tibet-Mongolia Treaty of 1913, by co-opting China for the under which each recognised the purpose. Unfortunately for Tibet, other as an independent country. the British further confirmed the Although there have been some dilution of the 1904 Convention by efforts to deny the existence of any signing the Anglo-Russian such agreement, the Government Convention in 1907 which covered of Mongolia made this Treaty Afghanistan, Iran and Tibet. public in 1982, at a time when According to this, Tibet was once relations between the Soviet bloc again, inter alia, deemed to be and China were extremely hostile. under the suzerainty of China. All The Thirteenth Dalai Lama had this was the result of London over- also formally declared Tibet an ruling Calcutta in the larger independent country in 1912 and interests of co-opting Russia over all Chinese officials, including all the growing differences with armed personnel, had been Imperial Germany, in the face of expelled. Representatives of Nepal which London wished to settle as had witnessed the agreement and many issues with the other major its implementation. The Chinese powers as it could. Tibet needed to be sacrificed for this purpose. [An

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 29 were again expelled from Tibet in they did not approve of the line July 1949. dividing Outer Tibet from China. This was the only reason, and had This was the setting for the Simla nothing to do with either Tibet conference in 1914. The conference signing an agreement with the began early in the year, and British as a sovereign country, or representatives from Britain, with the delineation of the Tibet and China were all present. McMahon Line. This fact was They examined and accepted each highlighted in the Eden others’ credentials, thus indicating Memorandum addressed to TV that all three were participating Soong, the Foreign Minister of as equals. The China many years major result for “Since the Chinese Revolution later, in 1943. By India was the of 1911, when Chinese forces were withdrawn from Tibet, then, the Second boundary between Tibet has enjoyed de facto World War was British India and independence. She has ever coming to a Tibet – the since regarded herself as in successful end – McMahon Line It practice completely the Germans had also divided Tibet autonomous and has opposed already into an Inner and Chinese attempts to reassert control. This was reiterated in surrendered at Outer Tibet [with the House of Commons in Stalingrad – and the latter being December 1949. the civil war in autonomous, the China was causing former not], an issue that still concern as to the eventual rankles among Tibetans, for it left outcome. This was why Eden many Tibetans under direct communicated to the Nationalist Chinese administration Government that Britain had, [interestingly it is these since 1921, been regarding Tibet populations who today oppose the as an autonomous country under Chinese rule on the Tibetan Chinese suzerainty, but with plateau]. The Chinese withdrew treaty-making powers. A brief their representative, Chen I-fan quote from the Eden [Ivan Chen], in protest because Memorandum will bring this out.

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 30 Excerpt from the Eden by the Chinese Government. The Memorandum 1943: rock on which the convention and subsequent attempts to reach an “Since the Chinese Revolution of understanding were wrecked was 1911, when Chinese forces were not the question of autonomy withdrawn from Tibet, Tibet has (which was expressly accepted by enjoyed de facto independence. China) but was the question of the She has ever since regarded boundary between China and herself as in practice completely Tibet, since the autonomous and Chinese has opposed Leaving aside the early period, Government Chinese attempts by 1949, it was clear to most claimed to reassert observers that the Communists sovereignty over control.This was were heading for victory in the areas which the reiterated in the civil war. The British resident Tibetan House of Commons in Tibet warned the Government in Delhi of the Government in December 1949. dangers for India through claimed belonged to Since 1911, Tibet in such a development. their autonomous Prime Minister Nehru’s repeated attempts jurisdiction.” assessment of this caution was [Emphasis added]. have been made to typical in its combination of bring about an ignorance and intellectual The American accord between arrogance, as he discounted archives show a China and Tibet. any possibility of any such similar disposition It seemed likely security threat. in the US that agreement Administration which also made could be found on the basis that recognition of Chinese suzerainty Tibet should be autonomous under conditional on autonomy for Tibet. the nominal suzerainty of China, And this was the situation that and this was the basis of the draft independent India inherited in tripartite (Chinese-Tibetan- 1947. Leaving aside the early British) convention of 1914 which period, by 1949, it was clear to was initialled by the Chinese most observers that the representative by was not ratified

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 31 Communists were heading for repercussions on the India-Tibetan victory in the civil war. The frontier. The event is remote and British resident in Tibet warned may not arise at all.” the Government in Delhi of the This was the strategic dangers for India through Tibet in appreciation that seemed to guide such a development. Prime Nehru through the early Minister Nehru’s assessment of traumatic years after the Chinese this caution was typical in its invaded and occupied Tibet in combination of ignorance and 1950. He seemed to be deeply intellectual arrogance, as he committed to working with the discounted any possibility of any Chinese in order to bring about a such security threat. Writing an grand Asian revival, and Tibet for internal Note on 9 July 1949, he him was a hindrance in this grand observed: scheme. But in the process, he Excerpt from Nehru’s noting 1949: made blunders on Tibet which that unfortunate country, and “Whatever may be the ultimate India too, is still paying for. It is fate of Tibet in relation to China, I noteworthy that Nehru had over- think there is practically no ridden Nationalist Chinese chance of any military danger to objections during the 1947 Asian India arising from any possible Relations Conference which he change in Tibet. Geographically, hosted in April, and allowed Tibet this is very difficult and to take part as an independent practically it would be a foolish country, and to travel on Tibetan adventure. If India is to be passports, but he did not show influenced or an attempt made to anything like the same firmness in bring pressure on her, Tibet is not approaching the Communists. the route for it. What made this even more “I do not think there is any inexplicable is the fact that the necessity at present for our Nationalists had been active Defence Ministry, or any part of it, supporters of the Indian freedom to consider possible military movement, whereas the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 32 Communists had had choice things Chinese, and make the situation to say about Nehru and Indian worse for the Tibetans. Of freedom. course, this quite disregarded the fact that Tibet itself wanted In time-honoured and indeed, the matter discussed at the UN. treaty-bound tradition, the Dalai Further, it emphasised the irony Lama, now already the [current] that while India took the Jammu Fourteenth, then a teenager, & Kashmir question to the UN, turned to India when the it would not support a reference Chinese troops occupied to seek on Tibet at the refuge and support UN. in 1950-51. He was preparing to go the The British and the Americans Finally, [tiny] El UN to lay out his accepted the primacy of the Salvador agreed Indian role in matters Tibetan, case [he took refuge to sponsor the and went along. The US in Chumbi Valley a archives show that the discussion. But few months after Americans did try several just as the matter sending his appeal times to persuade Nehru to do was coming up to the UN GA], more to help Tibet, including for discussion at when the Indian at the UN, but it was not to be Lake Success at – Nehru was more concerned Government the end of about his role in the Korea decided that it conflict. November 1950, would not sponsor the Indian any discussion on delegation Tibet in the UN. As a non- informed the UN that they had member, Tibet could not bring received word that China was up the matter in the UN itself. willing to settle the matter The reasoning of the Indian peacefully. Hence, said the Government was that there was Indian representative, the nothing anyone could do in matter should be withdrawn military terms to help Tibet; from consideration. The British further, any discussion in the and the Americans accepted the UN would only antagonise the primacy of the Indian role in

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 33 matters Tibetan, and went … along. The US archives show Considering that these events that the Americans did try violate fundamental human several times to persuade Nehru rights and freedoms set out in to do more to help Tibet, the Charter of the United including at the UN, but it was Nations and the Universal not to be – Nehru was more Declaration of Human Rights, concerned about his role in the including the principle of self- determination of peoples and Korea conflict. nations, and have the deplorable It was not until 1956 that things effect of increasing international tension and embittering began to change, as the ground relations between peoples, situation continued to worsen and Tibetan resistance to 1. Reaffirms its conviction that Chinese occupation grew. For respect for the principles of the the purposes of this paper, Charter of the United Nations and of the Universal Declaration of however, it is important to Human Rights is essential for the emphasise that the matter did evolution of a peaceful world order finally come up in the UN based on the rule of law; General Assembly in later years 2. Solemnly renews its call for the – in 1959, 1961, and 1965. The cessation of practices which first of these was confined to the deprive the Tibetan people of their fundamental human rights and violation of the rights of the freedoms, including the right to Tibetan people, but the second, self-determination;” [Emphasis in 1961, carried a call for the added]. right of self determination of the Tibetan people. It was a short India did not sponsor or support Resolution, but the operative either of the Resolutions, and the part is worth quoting from: explanation must be Nehru’s continuing commitment to seeking Excerpt from UNGA Resolution peace at any price with China. It 1723 of 20 December 1961 did not work, and the war of 1962 “The General Assembly brought such humiliation and hurt

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 34 upon Nehru that it would not be with Tibet in 1951 and with India wrong to say that it destroyed his in 1954. As to the first, it was standing in the country, and always under a cloud because the hastened his death in 1964. Tibetan delegation that signed it Notably, however, India did speak in Beijing was coerced into doing and support the next UN so, and moreover, the seals were Resolution, in 1965, forged in Beijing itself. This had to symptomatically, under a new be done because the delegation Prime Minister. The 1965 was not empowered by the Dalai Resolution did not specifically Lama to enter into any agreement reiterate the call for self on the status of Tibet [the Dalai determination, but it reaffirmed Lama got the information through the earlier radio when he was Resolutions, and Thus, the UN is committed to in Chumbi Valley], giving the Tibetans the right of had the support of but only to self determination, but this India, among other will obviously not happen as negotiate the major powers. long as China remains willing withdrawal of the Thus, the UN is to use its veto power in the UN Chinese troops. committed to Security Council. Nevertheless Furthermore, even giving the Tibetans the legal position is clear and though the Dalai worth recording. the right of self Lama was determination, but persuaded in the this will obviously not happen as end to accept the 17-point long as China remains willing to Agreement as it has come to be use its veto power in the UN known in history, it cannot be Security Council. Nevertheless the considered binding any more. It legal position is clear and worth was denounced by the Dalai Lama recording. in 1959 after he fled from Lhasa in Lhuntse Dzong, on his way to the There is one other issue that needs Indian border. The International to be addressed. This concerns the Commission of Jurists examined two legal agreements entered into this denunciation and found in by the People’s Republic of China 1960, after the Dalai Lama had

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 35 been forced into exile, that the lapsed, there is no legal validity to denunciation was legally valid and this commitment. Legally, it tenable. means that Tibet and India revert to the previous Agreement i.e. the ICJ Report on Tibet and China Simla Convention of 1914, which (excerpt) (1960) [p.346] can be considered as a valid “The view of the [Legal Inquiry] Treaty once the regulations of the COMMITTEE was that Tibet was 1954 Panchsheel Agreement have at the very least a de facto lapsed. What is noteworthy is independent State that China used to when the insist on an There is, of course, a question Agreement of inclusion in all the mark on all this in light of the Peaceful Measures Dalai Lama’s own stated Joint documents in Tibet was signed position that he no longer with India that it in 1951, and the seeks independence from should carry a repudiation of this China but only a wide degree reiteration of Tibet agreement by the of genuine autonomy. This, as a part of China. however, is only a proposal and Tibetan However, since the does not alter the legal status Government in of Tibet. That will happen only last two years, this 1959 was found to when and if a new agreement reference is be fully justified.” is reached along the lines missing. suggested by the Dalai Lama As to the India- among the countries There is, of course, China agreement of concerned. a question mark on 1954, it was valid all this in light of for eight years to begin with, and the Dalai Lama’s own stated lapsed in 1962. This happened in position that he no longer seeks the month of April 1962, when independence from China but only relations between the two a wide degree of genuine countries were extremely tense autonomy. This, however, is only a and war was to break out a few proposal and does not alter the months later, in October. legal status of Tibet. That will However, since the agreement has happen only when and if a new

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 36 agreement is reached along the in the ways of the Chinese, and is lines suggested by the Dalai Lama clearly preparing for the among the countries concerned. succession. However, the The Dalai Lama’s quest for unambiguous status of the current genuine autonomy is different Dalai Lama is a unique asset for from the traditional British Tibet, and every effort needs to be definition of ‘autonomy’ in this made to settle matters with a context, because London wanted reasonably short period of time. responsibility for Foreign Affairs In closing, it is worthwhile to remain with Lhasa. reflecting upon the Tibet-Mongolia This is also the appropriate place Treaty of January 1913. Both to mention that the Dalai Lama is countries recognised each other’s getting on in years, and the independence. The Mongolians Chinese have made it clear that turned to Russia for guidance and they are preparing for a struggle protection, the Tibetans to Britain over the succession and his and later India for the same. reincarnation. In a reprise of the Mongolia is today an independent 1793 effort, they have again laid country – a condition extracted by down their perspective on the the Soviet leaders from reincarnation – something strange Nationalist China and then the for an avowed socialist and atheist People’s Republic, regardless of state to do. Nonetheless, they have the fraternal ties between them. the Panchen Lama under their Tibet is a country and culture on control, and it would be unwise to the verge of extinction, a sorry underestimate their determination reflection on the Indian to ensure their control over the leadership. choice of the next Dalai Lama. His back to content Holiness is, of course, well-versed

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 37 The Arc Of The India-US Partnership - Kanwal Sibal

US-India Geo-political partnership? Issues connected Convergence? with climate change concerns, environmental issues, democracy, s there a geo-political human rights, non-proliferation, coherence in the India-US terrorism and religious extremism. partnership that can be I Is there enough convergence delineated on the ground by between the two countries on tracing a curving line across the these issues? globe or a sizable part of it that connects points of convergence? In many ways, India’s most Where will this arc begin? In what difficult relationship with any we call West Asia? Will it begin in country has been with the US, the Afghanistan and go eastwards? Or foremost global political, economic will it begin in Thailand and go and military power. Over decades right through South-East Asia and the US has curbed India end up in Japan? Does the arc strategically by imposing begin in the Indian Ocean and go sanctions in the critical areas of right up to the South China Sea? nuclear and space technologies, Such a line would confine the and high-technology in general. scope of the India-US relationship India has felt US pressure on the to the Asia-Pacific region largely, issue of human rights. Our now the focal point of US geo- democracy may have shielded us strategic interest in the wake of from the worst, but on the positive China’s rise. side it has brought no particular bonus. What about the so-called global issues? Can they be connected The US has bolstered Pakistan. Its coherently with an arc of strategic outreach to China from

*Kanwal Sibal - Member Advisory Board, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 38 the 1970s added to our problems change in Indian thinking about by exposing us to joint pressure America being the most important from Pakistan and China, with the element. Being ‘pro-American’ is US overlooking some of the worst not a stigma any longer whether proliferation activity by the two in politics or business. The wider that today puts constraints on US public accepts that establishing efforts to restrain Pakistan’s good relations with America is a conduct on issues of terrorism and desirable objective. Pragmatic religious extremism. thinking in India supports the inclination of the government to The US approach bring India and the to terrorism and The US approach to terrorism US closer, though religious and religious extremism had not at the cost of extremism had been ambivalent until 9/11, at becoming been ambivalent India’s cost because the US subservient to the until 9/11, at has, over the years, ignored latter. India’s cost because Pakistan’s use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy the US has, over because India, not the US, was The urbanised the years, ignored principally the victim. India’s Indian middle class Pakistan’s use of view, that terrorism had to be is very positively terrorism as an viewed and fought against as a oriented towards instrument of state global phenomenon, obtained the US, and so is policy because no support. the entrepreneurial India, not the US, class, especially was principally the victim. India’s that section involved in the view, that terrorism had to be knowledge economy. The business viewed and fought against as a community as a whole, that today global phenomenon, obtained no wields far more influence on policy support. making because of the liberalisation of the Indian Shift in US-India Perceptions economy and the declining role of Today, the India-US relationship the state sector, is an engine for is a transformed one with the the growth of Indo-US ties. The

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 39 media devotes a lot of attention to a defining decision. The US the US. In any report card of the expected a political decision in its relationship over the last decade favour, whereas India wanted to this change in attitude is not only insulate the decision from politics very important, it is key to a and base it primarily on technical progressively enhanced and financial considerations. relationship with the US in the Despite our exceptionally close ties years ahead. with Russia historically, the Russians too were eliminated from The evolving defence relationship the MMRCA competition. In the with the US reflects this change in area of military-to-military attitude. The US continues to arm cooperation India and the US have Pakistan, and India, though organised numerous exercises, unhappy, is willing to take a over 50 in the last seven years. broader view of shared interests. With no other country have the Currently, the US has bagged the Indian armed forces engaged in so largest number of arms contracts - many joint exercises. This is an about $8 billion worth in the last important building block of five years - despite the stringent mutual confidence. In the larger and intrusive end-use monitoring security related context, the US requirements. India is likely to decision to liberalise export order more C-17s and P-8I controls for India and lifting aircraft. The contract for attack sanctions on some of our entities helicopters and light howitzers are important steps towards could well go to the US too. India building a partnership. no longer allows fears of a cut-off of US arms supplies in the event of India’s Stand on India-US regional tensions to stand in the Congruence way of enhanced defence ties. Despite these positive trends The elimination of US fighters India, however, remains cautious from the competition for the about developing operational MMRCA contract, which continues cooperation with the US because to rankle feelings in the US, is not of its political implications, both in

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 40 terms of domestic politics and themselves, positive. As it India’s external ties. India wants happens, it is Russia and China to develop broad-based mutually that are the principal hurdles in beneficial relations with various the United Nations Security global power centres rather than Council in denying the US and her being seen as excessively leaning allies a free hand to change towards one power centre. No regimes they dislike for geo- doubt there are many values that political reasons. draw India and the US together Often these regimes are such as the spread unsavoury but the of democracy, issue is not that pluralism, respect Despite these positive trends they might be for human rights India, however, remains cautious about developing disreputable, it is and operational cooperation with the management of entrepreneurial the US because of its political international freedom. implications, both in terms of relations in a domestic politics and India’s The problem lies in external ties. India wants to consensual and the methods used develop broad-based mutually equitable manner, to promote these beneficial relations with with due respect positive values. various global power centres accorded to The West, led by rather than being seen as sovereignty and the excessively leaning towards the US, is prone to principle of non- one power centre. use military means interference in the to promote or even impose these internal affairs of countries. If and often selectively. governments should not have total Authoritarian friends are immunity for heinous crimes protected and authoritarian against their own populations adversaries targeted. India does because of the sovereignty not want to be caught in a principle, neither should such situation in which it becomes crimes be exaggerated and party to a selective application by amplified by the West-controlled the US of principles that are, in international media to justify

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 41 intervention, nor should other action against Iran or steps at reasons be trumped up for economic strangulation. Even on mobilising support for regime the central issue of Iran’s nuclear change. programme, India can hardly view the situation in as catastrophic as India is therefore unwilling at this the US would want us to. US juncture to sign some pending hands on the nuclear issue with defence agreements with the US India have not been clean. Worse, that might be construed as it has deliberately overlooked opening the door for operational Pakistan’s nuclear activity in cooperation. The LSA for logistics, connivance with China in the past CISMOA for inter- and continues to do operability and Developments relating to Iran so even today. BECA for geo- illustrate the kind of problems spatial cooperation India can be confronted with if However have been shelved certain expectations of India- reprehensible for the time being. US congruence in policies are Iran’s conduct, India does not raised with an expanded Pakistan’s has perceive any defence relationship. India has been far worse no reason to support either US particular from our point of military action against Iran or advantage in these steps at economic view as it directly agreements. strangulation. affects our security, which the Iranian Recent programme does not. Already our Developments in Iran efforts to preserve our energy Developments relating to Iran relationship with Iran have illustrate the kind of problems become a contentious issue with India can be confronted with if the US. So long as the strategic certain expectations of India-US visions of India and the US in our congruence in policies are raised region in particular are not with an expanded defence sufficiently aligned, our defence relationship. India has no reason relationship will be subject to to support either US military political limits.

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 42 Impediments in Indo-US Nuclear hand, India has drafted the Cooperation regulations under the Liability Act and placed them before the The Indo-US nuclear deal has Parliament. been at the fulcrum of the changed India-US relationship, though the These regulations limit supplier process was politically painful. liability financially and in Despite the non-proliferation duration, but their finalisation caveats it contained and the sharp awaits the disposal of an controversy they provoked at that amendment that has been time, that criticism has subsided. proposed. It appears that the US Now the attention is on realising is still not satisfied with the actual commercial benefits from effective dilution of the liability the nuclear agreement. provisions of the Act in the regulations that have been framed Here, the Indian Nuclear Liability and would want India to still Act has put a spoke in the wheel conform to the so-called for US nuclear suppliers. India international practice of placing believes its act is compliant with all liability on the operator. the Convention on Supplementary Meanwhile, an ‘early works Compensation, whereas the US agreement’ between US companies does not. The US has been and NPCIL is being proposed but pressing India to ratify the CSC substantial progress on setting up which India has committed to US supplied plants can only be doing by the end of the year but made after commercial the US demand that this be done negotiations are completed on a in active consultation with the viable tariff for the power IAEA has not been acceptable to produced. India. It is by no means clear that with such ratification India’s The problem of liability has been international obligations will compounded politically by the override its domestic law. In any Fukushima disaster and anti- case, India has failed to ratify the nuclear protests in India that CSC as promised. On the other threaten even to delay the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 43 commissioning of the almost ready a natural outcome. While it is Russian-built nuclear power plant legitimate for US companies to at Kudankulam. The French site actively push their commercial at Jaitapur has run into problems interests, to assume that India is with local communities. Another obliged to reward the US through Russian site at Haripur in West its companies and failure to do so Bengal has been abandoned. The in time is grounds for grievance, India-Japan nuclear negotiations would be a mistaken notion. Lack too have suffered because of of progress should not, hopefully, Fukushima. All this does not cause the US to slow down in the augur well for US implementation of companies. the other steps The US attitude towards envisaged to The lack of China’s decision to supply two normalise as far as progress on the additional nuclear reactors to possible India’s nuclear power front Pakistan, is troubling for us. India has refrained from status as a has raised the making an issue of it to avoid responsible non- issue of differences on nuclear issues NPT nuclear power deliverables by with the US when after by making it a Indian in return for decades of contention both member of the US leadership in countries have resolved their NSG, MTCR, the bringing India out bilateral differences over India’s nuclear programme. Australia Group of the nuclear cold. and the Wassenaar To some extent, Arrangement. this is regrettable because if the nuclear deal was strategic in The US attitude towards China’s intent, it should not be reduced to decision to supply two additional a transactional one. In other nuclear reactors to Pakistan, is words, it should not be seen that troubling for us. India has the deal was primarily intended to refrained from making an issue of open doors for US companies to it to avoid differences on nuclear secure lucrative Indian contracts, issues with the US when after even though this would have been decades of contention both

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 44 countries have resolved their from outside the system. The bilateral differences over India’s powerful anti-US wave sweeping nuclear programme. India has also Pakistan should intensify these wanted to avoid a diplomatic concerns. The US could have, dispute with Pakistan as well as therefore, done more to oppose this China on this issue for its own inopportune China-Pakistan deal. reasons, namely, to avoid Critics construe the relatively disrupting the on-going dialogue complacent attitude of the US as with Pakistan and in recognition intended to allow Pakistan some of the futility of raising the issue satisfaction through China to with China. With the US/West balance the nuclear deal with showing complacency over this India in the face of persistent China-Pakistan agreement, India, Pakistani demands for a similar as a non-member of the NSG, had deal from the US for itself. additional reason to avoid inviting US and India-Pakistan- a diplomatic rebuff in agitating Afghanistan the issue. The set of issues involving In view of US concerns about the terrorism, religious extremism and safety of nuclear materials and the Afghanistan, which are vital for world-wide initiative it has taken Indian and US security, could to galvanise action on this front delineate the arc of the India-US globally, one should have expected partnership more sharply but here the US to have shown more too, while concerns are shared, the concern than it has about the way to deal with them reveals security of the fast expanding serious gaps in thinking. The US Pakistani nuclear arsenal, has travelled a long way from particularly as the country is ignoring Pakistan’s use of falling prey to religious extremism terrorism as an instrument of and terrorism. The US should be state policy - despite India fearful of the danger of nuclear clamouring against this for years - material falling into the hands of to Admiral Mullen acknowledging extremist elements not necessarily this in his Congressional

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 45 testimony before retirement. India two countries are discussing joint has been charging Pakistan with projects there. The US has not duplicity, an accusation that the viewed negatively the declaration US now makes liberally against of a strategic partnership between Pakistan. India has long called India and Afghanistan and the Pakistan an epicentre of terrorism provisions relating to India and now the US recognises providing training the Afghan Pakistan as such. security forces and Yet the US has contributing to the continued to arm India has been charging enhancement of Pakistan and this Pakistan with duplicity, an their combat accusation that the US now even when General capability. This makes liberally against Kayani, who is now Pakistan. India has long called implies acceptance regarded with less Pakistan an epicentre of by the US of India’s admiration by the terrorism and now the US legitimate long Pentagon, insists recognises Pakistan as such. term interests in on his India-centric Yet the US has continued to Afghanistan and arm Pakistan and this even strategy. The US reduced concern when General Kayani, who is has just announced now regarded with less about Pakistan’s a $2.4 billion aid admiration by the Pentagon, India-related package for insists on his India-centric sensitivities about Pakistan that strategy. The US has just that country. includes a sizeable announced a $2.4 billion aid package for Pakistan that The problem area chunk as military includes a sizeable chunk as is US’s exit aid. military aid. strategy axed on India and the US reconciliation with have successfully overcome some the obscurantist Taliban early differences of opinion about leadership so long as it breaks India’s role in Afghanistan. The links with Al Qaida and confines US now supports India’s its Islamist agenda to Afghan development assistance to territory. The decision to allow the Afghanistan to the point that the Taliban to open an office in Qatar

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 46 gives respectability to this point of view as this membership retrograde movement as a political is predicated on a constructive interlocutor. To begin to obfuscate Afghan role, not a disruptive one. the reality of what the Taliban India needs a moderate Islamic represents, as Vice-President government in Kabul with no Biden’s recent statements suggest, religious bias against India and in order to have some kind of an not vulnerable to manipulation to orderly exit from Afghanistan may serve Pakistan’s anti-Indian serve US political needs but it obsessions. What India would does not serve India’s interests. worry about is a US-Pakistan deal India cannot be comfortable with that gives the Taliban a role in the such a US strategy. Our problems Afghan political structure as a arise from the strength of Islamist guarantee for its self-defined ideology in our region, embodied interests as against fuller all along by Pakistan and now set Pakistani cooperation to help in to gain strategic depth in the US/NATO exit from Afghanistan. It is this Islamist Afghanistan without the Afghan ideology that has given house crumbling in its wake. nourishment to political confrontation with non-Islamic India-US bilateral cooperation in India with its large Muslim combating terrorism is now population. Whatever the acknowledged as being helpful. It likelihood of potential problems appeared earlier that this was between the Taliban Pashtuns and more in the nature of enhancing Pakistan, India cannot manoeuvre India’s technical capabilities in a Taliban-influenced political rather than joining hands to curb dispensation in Afghanistan. A Pakistan as a source of terror ‘Talibanised’ Afghanistan will also directed at India. But now it obstruct India’s efforts to build seems actionable intelligence is any meaningful relationship with being shared, though the Hadley Central Asia. Afghanistan’s episode has created a trust deficit. membership of SAARC will also In the area of homeland security, become problematic from India’s

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 47 India can gain much from US China’s, it is balanced by the fact expertise, systems and equipment. that we are not perceived as a threat either. The China Factor As part of its eastwards oriented The US has been exhorting India concerns, India has been to move from a “Look East” policy conducting numerous naval to an “Engage East” policy. Now exercises with the US to ensure the call is for an “Act East” policy, the security of the sea lanes of in consonance with the presumed communication in the Indian wishes of the South-East and East Ocean through Asian countries. In pass trade and actual fact, India The US has been exhorting energy supplies of does not need such India to move from a “Look China, Japan and exhortation as its East” policy to an “Engage South Korea. Naval Look East policy East” policy. Now the call is for exercises have been has always meant an “Act East” policy, in consonance with the presumed held in a larger engaging the East wishes of the South-East and format with Japan, and acting in that East Asian countries. In actual Australia and direction. India’s fact, India does not need such Singapore. India trade and exhortation as its Look East has tried to engage investment profile policy has always meant the navies of in South-East Asia engaging the East and acting in that direction. South-East Asian has grown countries to build enormously; we goodwill in what are called the have signed FTAs or CEPAs with ‘Milan’ exercises. Now a decision ASEAN or individual countries has been taken to have tri-lateral such as Thailand, Singapore, exercises involving India, US and Japan and South Korea. India Japan, as well as a tri-lateral plays an active role in the ARF. It dialogue amongst these three is part of the East Asia Summit countries at the foreign office where it intends to work closely level. These are signs of a with the US and others. If India’s developing a hedging strategy eastwards activity does not match

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 48 against the rise of a more term game of extracting the economically and militarily maximum it can from the muscled China that is already relationship with the US until it causing anxiety in the region with steadily builds up its capacity to its claims in the South China Sea. counter US power in Asia and beyond. It, therefore, takes in its India supports the freedom of stride, US criticism of its human navigation in the South China rights record and even while Sea, a position aligned to that of resorting to rhetoric, continues its the US. India would support systematic engagement of US enhanced US presence in the Asia- political and economic circles. Pacific region as a factor of stability and therefore, the pivot US capacity to moderate China’s towards Asia announced by conduct is being steadily eroded President Obama would be viewed and in time, as the power without any misgiving. The US equations change in China’s alone is in a position to exert favour, the US will have even less pressure to contain China’s of a capacity to influence China’s ambitions even as the profound behaviour. India will, therefore, American economic linkages with have good reason not to allow its China as well as US’s debilitating China relationship to deteriorate mistakes in West Asia feed these on account of some assumptions ambitions. about US-China tensions, given the likelihood that US and China Yet here again, India has question would work out mutual marks in its mind about America’s arrangements over the heads of China policy. Some flow from the others if the circumstances so unhealthy mutual financial and warrant. If the US is obliged to economic inter-dependence that engage China even as it develops has developed between the two hedging options as a precaution, countries. Too much is at stake in India should be called upon to do China for the US to risk a likewise. confrontation with that country. China is playing a subtle, long-

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 49 India must also take into account nuclear power. In the past, the US that its real problems with China has spoken of working together are in South Asia, not in East with China for peace and stability Asia, with renewed strident in South Asia, a thinking Chinese claims on Indian reiterated recently by Admiral territory, the lack of movement in Wilard. Xi Jinping, set to take border negotiations despite 15 over the reins from Hu Jintao, has rounds of talks at the level of noted in an interview in advance Special Representatives, the of his visit to the US in February questioning of India’s legal that the China and the US have position in Jammu and Kashmir, “actively coordinated” their the continued transfers of nuclear policies in South Asia. India, on and missile technologies to the other hand, sees China as a Pakistan, Chinese presence in strategically disruptive power in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and South Asia. The US repeatedly its involvement in major endorses the principle of China’s infrastructural projects there even territorial integrity, accepts Tibet as China protests against the as part of China, but does not India-Vietnam agreement on oil support the principle of India’s exploration in the South China territorial integrity or formally Sea and continues the accepts J&K as part of India, in militarisation of Tibet. deference to the sensitivities of Pakistan and China. The US On these issues of strategic expresses no view on the importance to India the US is militarisation of Tibet that not silent. Not that India wants the only suppresses the Tibetans but US to intrude into these problems threatens India’s security. Here we have with China, though the there is a serious strategic gap in US could have a clearer policy on the relationship and bridging it the China-Pakistan nexus directed will not be easy. at India. On the contrary, the US seems to suggest that China is The US, as the world’s most now behaving as a responsible powerful nation, is used to shaping

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 50 the international environment in If India, as a rising power, is now conformity with its values and being accommodated in leading interests. India has to live in an global groupings, the expectation international environment shaped is that it will endorse the broad by others; it seeks changes but thrust of western policies. The does not have the capacity to assumption is that India must enforce them. The political change its thinking and approach, configurations it is and contribute to involved in - the The US, as the world’s most enlarging the RIC, BRICS, IBSA, powerful nation, is used to consensus behind the Group of four shaping the international these policies, not for the permanent environment in conformity that India’s views membership of the with its values and interests. will be taken into India has to live in an Security Council - account in international environment give it room to shaped by others; it seeks modifying them. It politically changes but does not have the is this assumption manoeuvre outside capacity to enforce them. The that explains the a framework political configurations it is ire at India for its dominated by the involved in - the RIC, BRICS, voting in the IBSA, the Group of four for the US/West but Security Council on permanent membership of the without altering Security Council - give it room Libya and Syria the current balance to politically manoeuvre that has goaded of power. The US outside a framework some to question and some other dominated by the US/West but the rationale of US western countries without altering the current support for India’s balance of power. criticise India for permanent being a freeloader membership of the in benefitting from the efforts that Security Council. India’s latest western powers put in to make the positive vote on Syria has, of global system work, without course, earned favourable notice. sharing responsibility. If India is asked to assume greater responsibility for upholding the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 51 international system, then some US even when vital US stakes are genuine attempt has to be made to involved. remove its present deficiencies. On the economic side, US exports Military intervention and the right to India have increased rapidly; to protect are products of mindsets the US is India’s largest economic habituated to the use of military partner as an individual country, power to advance national or though purely in terms of trade in alliance interests. goods China has become our India’s rise invites attention from largest partner to some the developed world, but the discomfiture of policy makers and challenges of development are specific sectors of the economy in enormous. Its interests converge view of the mounting trade deficit as well as collide with the West. and commercial practices of We have difficulties over US Chinese companies. The US is polices towards Iran and earlier pressing for further reforms of the towards Myanmar, not the least Indian economy, especially in the because the US has enlarged the financial, retail and labour sectors. geo-political space for China India will move at its own pace around us. Similarly, the US because of the limitations of its enlarged the space for religious system, coalition government, extremism and terrorism in our domestic distractions and slow region by supporting the Islamists decision-making in the against the Soviets, adopting a government. On climate change soft posture towards the Taliban and WTO-related issues, India and when they took over in the US have differences but these Afghanistan and wanting to are not bilateral issues and should accommodate them even now, and not be allowed to become one. overlooking Pakistan’s use of To sum up, the report card of the terror at the state level and its Indo-US partnership is a mixed clandestine nuclear programme one. The strategic relationship has that today gives Pakistan the to be imparted greater content. confidence and capacity to defy the The backlog of past

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 52 misunderstandings is being The major constraints are a steadily removed. Anti-US mismatch between US interests political opinion and instincts and priorities as a global power exist but they are now secondary. and India’s as a regional power; There is general goodwill for the outdated conditionalities linked to US though some aspects of US arms supplies, the negative policies continue to cast a shadow activity of American non- on the relationship. The main proliferation die-hards, the drivers of the relationship on the complexity of export controls Indian side are the especially on dual acceptance that the technology items, relationship is vital To sum up, the report card of US desire to shape the Indo-US partnership is a and that no other mixed one. The strategic the Indian system relationship can relationship has to be imparted to suit the substitute for it in greater content. The backlog of requirements of its its entirety; the past misunderstandings is companies, which people-to-people being steadily removed. Anti- is a long-term relationship is US political opinion and exercise. Others instincts exist but they are unmatched; now secondary. There is relate to policies educational general goodwill for the US towards Pakistan linkages are very though some aspects of US and on issues of important; the policies continue to cast a terrorism and India-American shadow on the relationship. religious community is a extremism as well positive force; India has hopes for as uncertainties about the end- access to high technology. On the game in Afghanistan, in particular US side, India’s large market, its a deal with the Taliban brokered human potential, shared values by Pakistan. and the China factor are driving The India-US relationship is elements, but India figures less supposedly strategic but it is being prominently in US calculations judged too much on a than the US does in India’s transactional basis especially as external relations.

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 53 what India can now deliver to the underpinned by the US remains US in return for the nuclear deal, intact with needed reforms; forgetting that the deal was highly undiluted by the authoritarian controversial in India. US Chinese model. limitations in conducting its China The eventual India-US model of policy even when it pivots towards partnership will neither be that of the Asia-Pacific keeping the future US-Britain, US-Japan or US- China threat in mind are factors France. India is neither a India has to keep in mind. The historical ally like the UK nor is it declining US economic strength a fractious one like France, and it and its inward pre-occupations are is not security dependent as other constraints on US policies. Japan. India will seek to maintain In the next decade or beyond, its independence in decision- much will depend on how the US making as much as possible but reforms its economic and political also seek convergence with the functioning to give a new élan to US. It will be a unique model as the country; the general belief is India is sui generis and US that the reserves of US strength believes in its own exceptionalism. will surface even though the US will not be in a position to dictate as much as before. It is important back to content that the liberal international order

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 54 President Zardari’s India Visit: A Precursor To PM’s Pak Visit - Satish Chandra

resident Zardari’s upcoming may, in fact, even have engineered visit to India on April 8th them. This difference in approach P shares some commonalities is reflective of the qualitative with Zia’s visit in February 1987 differences between Rajiv Gandhi- and Gilani’s visit in March 2011. -- the realist, steadfast in not making any concessions to an In all three cases the visits were unreliable Pakistan which could arranged at short notice and their compromise the national interest-- ostensible purpose--- a pilgrimage -and Dr Manmohan Singh---the to Ajmer in the case of Zardari and woolly headed idealist ready to to watch a cricket match in the make any sacrifice to woo case of the other two----was Pakistan quite unmindful of its different from the real objective inimical mindset vis a vis India. notably to touch base with the Indian Prime Minister. Though it is unlikely that any Furthermore, as happened during agreements will be signed during the visits of the earlier two the Zardari visit one may expect Pakistani dignitaries the Indian that discussions would focus on a PM will host a lunch for Zardari, variety of India-Pakistan issues. and like in those visits little by One would expect that terrorism way of concrete agreements is would be at the top of the agenda likely to emerge. particularly in the context of the bounty of $10 million recently While it was only with much announced by the US on Hafiz reluctance that Prime Minister Saeed. Other important issues Rajiv Gandhi agreed to receive likely to be discussed are Kashmir, Zia, Dr Manmohan Singh went out on which the revived back channel of his way to host the Gilani visit must have provided inputs, and now the Zardari visit and Siachen, Sir Creek, visa

*Satish Chandra - Distinguished Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 55 liberalization, trade, water etc as able to project the same as a grand well as the strategy to be adopted success. for follow on talks. It is regrettable that Government The importance of Zardari’s visit has been complicit in helping to India lies not in whether or not create the illusion of increasing anything tangible emerges warmth in India-Pakistan therefrom, in terms of resolving relations by its acts of omission differences, but in building up an and commission. Firstly by failing atmosphere of warmth quite to impose any penalties on divorced from Pakistan for its reality which would involvement in the It is regrettable that facilitate Dr Mumbai attacks of Government has been Manmohan Singh’s November 26th complicit in helping create the visit to Pakistan in 2008 as well as illusion of increasing warmth the coming few subsequent in India-Pakistan relations by months. It may be terrorist attacks its acts of omission and recalled that an like those in 2011 commission. Firstly by failing invitation for the in Mumbai and to impose any penalties on same was extended Delhi it has Pakistan for its involvement in by Hina Rabbani virtually brushed the Mumbai attacks of Khar during her this issue under November 26th 2008 as well as official visit to subsequent terrorist attacks the carpet. No India in July 2011. like those in 2011 in Mumbai wonder, therefore, This was reiterated and Delhi it has virtually that those involved by Gilani during brushed this issue under the in the Mumbai the SAARC carpet. attacks have not Summit in the been punished and Maldives in November 2011 and in Pakistan continues to export his meeting with Dr Manmohan terror to India with impunity. Singh in Seoul in March 2012. India’s tolerance for Pakistan’s President Zardari will no doubt recalcitrance on this count has repeat it in New Delhi and enabled the two countries to perhaps even reach some maintain the façade of a business understandings on the areas on as usual relationship. Secondly, which it may be feasible to sign contrary to commitments made by agreements when Dr Manmohan Government including by PM Singh visits Pakistan so as to be himself in Parliament in July 2009

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 56 that Pakistan had “to act and act Pakistan’s belated moves towards effectively on terrorism” for any according India MFN treatment as comprehensive dialogue with it suggestive of a change of heart the same has been undertaken towards India, a wholly erroneous without the latter having brought impression is being sought to be to book the perpetrators of the created that we are on the cusp of Mumbai attacks or having shut an improved India-Pakistan down the infrastructure terror. relationship which is at complete Thirdly, India last year went so variance with the fact that far as to withdraw its opposition to Pakistan has given India no a EU concessional trade package satisfaction on terrorism and for Pakistan even though this through 2011 pumped in as much action has hurt our own textile as Rs16 billions of fake Indian exports. It has been argued that currency into the country in Pakistan reciprocated our support of terrorism. generosity by moving some way towards an MFN regime for India. In this backdrop, one needs to be It needs to be noted, however, that concerned about the nature of this Pakistani move, which has agreements that Dr Manmohan been hailed with so much fanfare Singh is likely to arrive at when by our leaders, is no favour to us he goes to Pakistan given our as we had accorded MFN proclivity to readily make treatment to Pakistan way back in concessions and Pakistan’s the mid 90’s. Moreover, by not aversion to make the slightest according MFN treatment to compromise. While a settlement India, Pakistan was only depriving on Kashmir is not on the cards as itself of access to competitively any Indian leader would be most priced Indian goods and having to unwise to commit himself in this pay much more for similar imports matter without a prior consensus from elsewhere. In brief, by more within the Indian political or less taking terrorism out of the firmament, agreement on issues of equation, by resuming the lesser import like visas, Sir Creek composite dialogue process, by and Siachen are a possibility. On frequent meetings at the head of the latter two it is hoped that in state and head of government level our anxiety to reach out to albeit on the sidelines of other Pakistan there is no deviation regional and international from our existing negotiating meetings, and by hailing positions as they are minimalist in

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 57 nature. On Sir Creek one should disposition of the forces of the two maintain the stance so far taken sides and the positions that they by us that the boundary should be would be redeployed to, in the mid channel of the Creek as accompanied by a map and a clear per international practice and not assertion that no forward succumb to a settlement on the movement in the area would be basis of Pakistan’s claim that the undertaken by the forces of the boundary should be on the two sides. Pakistan’s reluctance to Eastern side of the Creek. Should plot the positions of the forces of we do so not only would there be the two sides in the main an obvious loss of some territory in agreement places in doubt its bona the Creek area but also serious fides. negative implications in determining our maritime back to content boundary and exclusive economic zone. Similarly, on Siachen, we need to hold firm to our position that any demilitarization of the area would be contingent on a formal recognition in the text of the agreement, and not in any side-letter or annex, of the existing

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 58 Gilani’s Conviction: A Soft Constitutional Coup And The Crisis Of State - Sushant Sareen

ven before the Supreme Prime Minister till ‘the rising of Court of Pakistan had the court’ i.e. about 30 seconds, E pronounced the verdict appeared to be a bit of an anti- against Prime Minister Yusuf climax because it belied Raza Gilani, the writing on the expectations of a spectacle – the wall was very clear: the so-called PM being taken to jail and/or the ‘independent’ judiciary was hell court disqualifying him as a bent on gaining the dubious Member of Parliament. But even distinction of breaking new this half-a-minute sentence was constitutional ground by enough to do the damage and convicting a sitting Prime Minister create an unprecedented on the charge of contempt of court, constitutional and political crisis which is really short-hand for a which the country can ill-afford at soft constitutional coup. Anyone this juncture. With the conviction who has followed the proceedings of a sitting Prime Minister, in the said case knew that the Pakistan has entered uncharted judges had decided to convict constitutional waters that hold the Prime Minister Gilani even before potential of sinking the ship of the case started. state. As things stand, the Only, they had to go through the Pakistani judiciary has breached motions – lawyers call it due the limitations implicit in the process – to keep up the charade of constitution – the most being even-handed so that the appropriate term is the Hindi charge of one-sided justice and word ‘maryada’ – and created a witch-hunt against the Pakistan situation which the framers of the People’s Party (PPP) could be constitution would have neither watered down. imagined, nor catered for.

On the face of it, sentencing of the If the reactions to the conviction

*Sushant Sareen – Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 59 are anything to go by, the portents The judgment against Gilani has are not good. The ruling PPP and not only sharpened the political at least some of its allies are polarization in the country but has gearing up for a bruising legal and also politicised the judicial political battle aimed at not only processes. Sample this: on the eve protecting the PM but also making of the judgment those supporting hell of a noise to undermine the Gilani made it clear that the judges and their judgments. Prime ruling would decide whether Minister Gilani has already called justice would be done (i.e. Gilani the ruling ‘not appropriate’ and is would be acquitted) or the PPP showing no signs of putting in his would once again be victimised; papers. The leader of the main those baying for Gilani’s blood opposition party, Nawaz Sharif, (actually, the real target is Asif has sounded the bugle by Zardari) were waiting to see if rule declaring that he and his party no of law would be upheld (i.e. Gilani longer acknowledge Gilani as the would be sentenced) or if the Prime Minister and has demanded judges would once again buckle his resignation and early general under pressure! In such a deeply elections. The right-wing religious polarized environment, it is parties like Jamaat Islami and impossible to expect that judicial neo-Jamaat/Talibanesque parties verdicts will be accepted like Imran Khan’s Tehrik-e-Insaaf ungrudgingly by either side. have cast their lot with the judiciary and are going hammer In other words, every judicial and tongs at the Zardari-Gilani decision in Pakistan today is combine. In short, the stage is all something of a political minefield. set for political pandemonium, in To a great extent, it is the judges the corridors of power, chambers themselves who are responsible for of courts, the streets of the the situation coming to such a country, and of course, the pass. Right from the time this ubiquitous TV studios. The government took office in March powerful military establishment is 2008, the judiciary has been a meanwhile watching everything mill-stone around its neck. The from the sidelines, biding its time reluctance of Asif Zardari to but also calculating whether or not restore the chief justice was only it will be required to step into the partly the result of his own political slugfest. personal grudge against Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry – he had

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 60 humiliated Zardari and become President and enjoying consistently denied him any relief complete immunity under the during the Musharraf years. constitution against any Partly, Zardari resisted the prosecution, the judges did not restoration because the suspended relent in trying to fix him. If only chief justice spooked the army the judges, most of them with an which leaned on the PPP Islamist proclivity – a favourite government to avoid restoring judge of the chief justice is now the him. But after having been forced chief legal counsel of the assassin to restore the Chief Justice, it on the former Punjab governor would have been and the chief ideal if all sides justice himself has had decided to let Forget about Islamist made observations bygones be bygones terrorists, these very same against secularism and started with a judges are very careful when it – had shown the clean slate. After comes to throwing the book same dogged all, there was no either at the generals or even determination one in Pakistan – their favoured politicians like against terrorists not the judges, not Nawaz Sharif. The zealousness like Hafiz Saeed the politicians, not with which Gilani has been and others of his the faujis, not the convicted is somehow ilk as they have media mujahids completely absent when it shown against Asif and jihadis, no one comes to convicting top army Zardari and Yusuf really – who was generals and ISI officials for Raza Gilani, not sullied. flouting court orders (for Pakistan might instance in the missing well have been a While the sins of persons case). happier place. all others seemed to have been wiped clean, Asif Forget about Islamist terrorists, Zardari remained a pet object of these very same judges are very hate for the right-wing, Punjabi careful when it comes to throwing mafia that runs Pakistan which the book either at the generals or wanted to punish him for all his even their favoured politicians like sins (more of commission than of Nawaz Sharif. The zealousness omission) despite the fact that he with which Gilani has been had been jailed for over 11 years convicted is somehow completely without having ever been absent when it comes to convicting convicted. Despite Zardari having top army generals and ISI officials

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 61 for flouting court orders (for close associate of the Sharifs and instance in the missing persons who is believed to have killed his case). Gilani’s supporters also wife. point out how the Supreme Court judges have acted against fellow It is against such a backdrop that judges for ignoring an order the judiciary is being judged by declaring the emergency imposed supporters of the PPP who also by Gen Pervez Musharraf in question the constitutionality of November 2007 but the judgment not have refused to act just because the The game-plan of the PPP is against the officials constitution going tof his responsibilities (including the provides immunity but also because according to current army chief) the Attorney General of to the Prime who had also Pakistan there is currently no Minister under ignored the very law on contempt of court and article 248(1) for same order. Even the ordinance under which any action he takes in the cases that the Supreme Court is (or as in this case, involving prosecuting the Prime Minister doesn’t take) in the politicians of a had lapsed as a result of tho be discharge e certain persuasion, two-fold. At the political level, judgment of this the judges seem to there is a slim possibility that very Court. The be very guarded in the party decides to ask Yusuf game-plan of the their approach. For Raza Gilani to resign and PPP is going tof his instance, while the selects his replacement in the responsibilities but chief justice next couple of days, in which also because showed remarkable case the crisis over a convicted according to the alacrity in taking PM will be resolved but the Attorney General suo moto notice issue of the controversial letter of Pakistan there is against an actress will remain open. currently no law on who was caught contempt of court with two bottles of and the ordinance liquor, the somnolence of the under which that the Supreme judiciary knows no bounds when it Court is prosecuting the Prime comes to a murder case against Minister had lapsed as a result of the former chief minister of tho be two-fold. At the political Punjab, Dost Khosa, who was a level, there is a slim possibility stand-in for Shahbaz Sharif for a that the party decides to ask few months and is the son of a Yusuf Raza Gilani to resign and

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 62 selects his replacement in the next thing for around four to six couple of days, in which case the months and then if matters reach crisis over a convicted PM will be a head elect another PM and resolved but the issue of the repeat the whole drama all over controversial letter will remain again; the PPP detractors are of open. Alternatively, and perhaps the view that at best the ruling more likely is the possibility that party can drag this for a two to the PPP will ask Gilani to three months after which it will continue in office and at the same have to choose another PM. As the time will use this conviction to latter see it, the appeal against play the victim and use the the conviction could be set aside in ‘political martyrdom’ card to try a matter of weeks after which the and cement its core support base disqualification reference will be in South Punjab and Sindh. The moved before the Speaker who has only problem is that given the to decide on the matter within 30 rather poor performance of the days. After this period, the case government, it is unlikely if this will automatically go before the ploy will find too much traction. Election Commission which is Although the PPP might win currently headed by a serving sympathy from some quarters, Supreme Court judge in a whether it will also receive the temporary capacity. He is unlikely votes, especially in the next to take too much time before general elections, cannot be said disqualifying Gilani. This ruling with any degree of certainty. At will then be challenged before the best what the PPP can hope for is High Court and then appealed that the political martyrdom at before the Supreme Court. Given the hands of a vindictive judiciary the mood of the Supreme Court, might help it to reclaim lost the odds are that this entire ground after the next elections. process could be decided without too much delay. On the legal plane, chances are that the PPP will use every trick While the legal processes will in the book to drag the matter and follow their own course, the issue prevent the disqualification of the of writing the controversial letter PM. But how long they can drag to the Swiss authorities to reopen this case is again a matter of the cases against Asif Zardari will speculation: the PPP supporters continue to hang like a sword over believe that they can pull this the head of the government. If the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 63 government continues to defy the write the letter. On the other Supreme Court, there is a hand, if the court accepts the possibility that the court might immunity plea, then questions will ask the army to intervene. This be raised and fingers will be would pretty much mean an end of pointed against the judiciary for the democratic order for the creating such a massive foreseeable future. If however the constitutional and political crisis army refuses to follow the ‘illegal’ for the last two and half years orders of the Supreme Court, then even though it was clearly laid the Court will become a lame- down in the constitution that the duck. There is a possibility that President enjoyed immunity. After the Court might not push very all, if the case against Zardari hard on the letter issue and wait hasn’t been decided in the last 16 for the next government (likely in years, heavens would not fall if it March 2013) to write the letter continues to remain undecided for against the President whose term another year or so. expires in August 2013. But even before this happens, a caretaker The big problem for the Pakistani government is likely to be in place state is that all this political and by around November/December constitutional tumult is taking this year and this government place at a time of monumental, could also write the controversial even existential, challenges and letter. In other words, the letter threats. The economy is on the will ultimately be written and verge of collapse and requires written even while Zardari is in some very tough decisions if it has office. Therefore, the question is to survive; at the strategic level, what the PPP and Zardari hope to relations with the US and the gain by holding out on the letter West are very precariously placed for another few months. and need bold decisions from the government; the situation in There is of course another Afghanistan is threatening to go possibility: the government might out of control and the Taliban, plead immunity for the president, both the Afghan and Pakistani, something that the Supreme Court could wreak havoc in the region; has already asked it to do. This is the internal security situation is however a risky strategy because abysmal with an insurgency in if the immunity plea is rejected Balochistan and deep disaffection then the government will have to in Sindh (exacerbated by the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 64 alleged murder of the Sindhi The spectre of serious nationalist leader instability that was already Bashir Qureshi), hanging over the country has rising sectarian only become more ominous violence and what after the Supreme Court have you. The judgment and cemented the spectre of serious impression of the state sliding instability that was towards failure because how unending fire- already hanging can a government that is only fighting to survive over the country engaged in unending fire- and is being has only become fighting to survive and is being constantly hauled more ominous after constantly hauled over the over the coals, the Supreme Court coals, provide even a modicum provide even a judgment and of governance. Ultimately, in modicum of cemented the the name of rule of law the governance. impression of the Pakistani judiciary has Ultimately, in the state sliding ensured that there is neither name of rule of law towards failure any law nor any rule in the Pakistani because how can a Pakistan. judiciary has government that is ensured that there only engaged in is neither any law nor any rule in Pakistan.

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VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 65 Do We Ever Think Before We Act, Or Is It Ad-Hocism Zindabad? - Dr. M.N. Buch

ritain has a coalition Vajpayee as Prime Minister was in government in power, with power up to 2004. Since then the B David Cameron as Prime United Progressive Alliance Minister, the Conservatives as the (UPA), with Congress as the lead lead party and the Liberals as the party and Dr. Manmohan Singh, junior partner. The Deputy Prime as Prime Minister, has been in Minister is a Liberal. power. Some of the alliance partners were common, some The common ground between the changed sides, while others have partners was identified in been consistent in their alliance. advance, there is unity in policy In both the NDA and UPA there and any disagreement is sorted have been regional partners with a out quietly and without publicity. high nuisance value who have held On such controversial issues as the balance of power and the lead raising education fees, party has had to perform a Afghanistan, the European Union, juggling act to hold the partners etc., the coalition has spoken as together. Atalji seemed to do this a one. This is what one can call a little better than Manmohan true coalition of responsible Singh, but even he had to make partners, not necessarily some unforgivable compromises. ideologically totally like minded, In the case of UPA the motto but prepared to give and take, seems to be that survival justifies cooperate and to settle all act of surrender and that to controversies in a civilised way. remain in power no compromise is too humiliating. This has India has had coalition emboldened partners such as governments after Mr. Narsimha Trinamool Congress and D.M.K to Rao. The National Democratic make the most outrageous Alliance (NDA), with BJP as the demands on government, which lead party and Atal Bihari has been only too willing to oblige.

* Dr. M.N. Buch – Visiting Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 66 As will be demonstrated this has deviating from what is best can be negated all policy planning and many, including political has made all decision making a compulsions, but that by itself captive to the whims and fancies does not explain whether any of coalition partners who find that thinking at all goes into our a tantrum here, a threat there process of decision making, works wonders and brings especially in the matter of our government to its knees. This relations with other countries. Our extends even into areas of immediate neighbours with whom international relations. The we have problems or with whom standard excuse for pandering to we should maintain good relations the outrageous demands of the are Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, partners is that there is the Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri compulsion of coalition. What is Lanka. This list should also unsaid is that actually it is the include Bhutan and Maldives. compulsion of narrow political Going a little further we have our interests and the fear of losing very large neighbour, China, to power which now drives decision contend with and here we have making in government, including serious problems about acquiescence in massive boundaries, territories, economic corruption. As, I believe, Arun interests and a power struggle in Jaitley said while paraphrasing South and South East Asia. Then the statement that “power we have Iran which is a major corrupts and absolute power source of fossil fuels for us and corrupts absolutely”, now the friendship with Iran is essential correct position is that “power for us to have a toehold in the corrupts and the fear of losing Islamic world. The Gulf countries power corrupts absolutely”. are important because so many Indians work there. Japan, the This paper is not so much on the United States and the European compulsion of coalition as it is on Union have their own place not trying to find out whether our only in our economy but in the policies are framed on the basis of culture of liberalism in which knowledge, after weighing up India tries to live. Our interest in various options and after taking Africa is to compete with that of into consideration that which is in China and it is a continent which our short term, middle-term, and India cannot ignore. However, for long-term interest. The reasons for each group of nations we have to

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 67 evolve a policy which addresses notions is that R&AW is engaged the specifics of that nation or in espionage only. A great deal of group and enables us to prepare its work consists of trying to an appropriate response and to understand the country under create an environment in which study and for this purpose a whole India’s interests are well-served. set of disciplines is involved. How does one do this? Covert and overt espionage activities are generally engaged in The normal contacts between where the country concerned is countries are either hostile to diplomatic, India, is unfairly commercial, For a successful conduct of competitive or is governmental and foreign relations we must have likely to constitute people to people. In within government, in all the a future threat to this last named organisations which might our national contact there can have an impact on our foreign interests. R&AW be problems of relations, country specific has the job of language, capacity individuals or units whose sole conducting such to travel and entry job is to study the country in espionage, just as given by foreign question, look at the economic the Intelligence countries to our trends and their effect on Bureau is required nationals and vice India, understand the to take counter versa, in an psychology of the people and measures against environment of the rulers of that country and espionage cordiality and prepare a whole series of conducted against easiness. The visa options for our government to India by other is one of the biggest adopt in its policy towards that countries. hurdles in people to country. Undoubtedly people contact and intelligence is one that is so even between immediate of the inputs which goes into neighbours such as India and policy framing, but cannot be the Pakistan. Therefore, our only one. understanding of a country has to come through a process of For a successful conduct of foreign intelligence collection, collation relations we must have within and analysis, which is why India government, in all the maintains an establishment called organisations which might have R&AW. One of the mistaken an impact on our foreign relations,

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 68 country specific individuals or however, does not seem to be the units whose sole job is to study the case. country in question, look at the economic trends and their effect on Let us take the case of India, understand the psychology Afghanistan. One thing is clear, of the people and the rulers of that the United States will have to quit country and prepare a whole that country sooner rather than series of options for our later. It is a matter of some doubt government to adopt in its policy whether Afghanistan is a nation towards that country. There must state as we understand it. There is also be parallel thinking in our a territorial entity called universities and research Afghanistan, but history indicates institutions, which must be that it has always been a engaged by government to either confederation of tribes rather than look at specific problems which are a united country. The history of posed to them or to carry out Afghanistan is one of an uneasy country specific studies which balance maintained by inter-tribal could assist government in relationships, which balance is framing policy. This was one of the easily upset if the tribal balance or tasks that the Jawaharlal Nehru the ethnic balance is disturbed. University was supposed to The Mujahideen largely consisted undertake. There are many of Pakhtuns, who are not very eminent scholars attached to the welcome amongst the Uzbeks, university who, from time to time, Tajiks and Hazaras who constitute write in the areas of their the population of Northern and specialisation. However, there is Western Afghanistan. The no evidence to indicate that these Pakthuns are the dominant tribes, papers are of such a seminal but when fundamentalism in the nature that they have influenced form of the Taliban took over the the thinking of government. We government of Afghanistan, the must institutionalise the other ethnic groups resisted this. arrangement whereby, on the Ultimately the direct attack on the basis of carefully conducted United States on 11th September, research and studies, inputs come 2001 resulted in massive to government which would go into retaliation by the United States the framing of country specific or against Al Qaeda and, ultimately, region specific policies. That, because the Taliban sheltered Osama Bin Laden, it brought the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 69 Taliban into direct conflict with further bridges with the Central America. The Northern Alliance Asian Republics which border was activated, in which India also Afghanistan? Do we ally with Iran played a role and ultimately the to rekindle a Shia movement Taliban were ousted. They have based on the Hazaras and the city made a come back and America is of Herat? Do we try and reach out now determined to quit to the Pakhtuns? One thing is Afghanistan by 2014. certain. Pakistan will certainly use fundamentalism in This foray into Afghanistan to history has been foment Jihad When America quits made to look at the against India. A Afghanistan, Pakistan will future. When few years down the certainly try and gain a America quits line the stranglehold over Afghanistan Afghanistan, independent and for this purpose Pakistan Pakistan will minded Afghans is hardly likely to support a certainly try and Karzai type of government. will probably throw gain a stranglehold That brings the out the Pakistanis over Afghanistan fundamentalists back. India and the situation and for this will have to deal with a may change. What purpose Pakistan is situation in which as do we do in the hardly likely to Pakistan’s influence increases meantime? Can we support a Karzai in Afghanistan, India will be consider type of increasingly isolated and exploitation of the government. That ousted, our development fault lines in brings the projects will close and the Pakistan, which fundamentalists Indian presence will be would include a back. India will eliminated. very clever support have to deal with a of separatism in situation in which as Pakistan’s Sindh and Baluchistan so that influence increases in Pakistan remains embroiled in its Afghanistan, India will be own problems of survival? Long increasingly isolated and ousted, term thinking demands that all our development projects will close the scenarios should be studied in and the Indian presence will be detail, informed options be eliminated. How do we react to compiled and government this? Do we reactivate the presented with a raft of options of Northern Alliance and build which government can take a

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 70 considered view. At present we This brings us to two other vital have only ad-hocism. neighbours, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. After years of hostility to Let us take the case of Nepal. This India fostered by Khalida Zia and country has had a totally organic the fundamentalists, Bangladesh relationship with India in which has moved towards democracy our culture, language, religion, under Sheikh Hasina. The present traditions and economy are closely Bangladesh Government is trying intermeshed. Nepali citizens have to curb fundamentalism and it all the rights of Indian citizens wants to establish the friendliest within India, including the right to relations with India. Recently the vote. Now that the Maoists have Prime Minister visited Bangladesh taken over power in Nepal, though with the draft of a friendship fortunately not absolute power as treaty. One of the major yet, strenuous efforts are being components of this treaty was the made to increase China’s influence sharing of the waters of the Teesta and not only reduce Indian River. This is where the influence but, so far as is possible, compulsion of coalition stepped to completely negate it. What is into an area of foreign relations. our thinking on Nepal? What are Mamata Banerjee publicly said the levers available to us to that Teesta was a West Bengal counter the policy of the Maoists? River and as the upper riparian How do we ensure India’s West Bengal was not prepared to predominance in Nepal? So far no give even a drop of water to cohesive or even comprehensible Bangladesh. Treaties with foreign policy regarding Nepal has countries are within the exclusive emerged. All our actions in Nepal domain of the Union Government. are totally ad hoc. Can we retain That government is expected to our influence in Nepal by knee- consult the State Governments jerk reactions? The border of India concerned and to address any with China, which should have issues which affect the States, but been beyond the Himalayan in the broader national interest ridgeline separating Nepal from friendship with a neighbour is Tibet/China, now threatens to more important than the riparian move down to the Terai as Nepal rights of an Indian State. Had drifts away from India. there been a group of people working assiduously on various aspects of our relations with

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 71 Bangladesh the sharing of Teesta very existence of Sri Lanka as a waters and the rights of West united country. Initially we Bengal would have been factored supported the insurgency and in when framing policy and that when it threatened to spill over would have formed the basis of our into Tamil Nadu, India decided on policy towards Bangladesh. military intervention. Why we Obviously we have no one who decided to send in IPKF into Sri does any long term thinking or Lanka to fight a shooting war, why planning and even the proposed we did not adopt other measures treaty with Bangladesh was based such as helping the Sri Lankans to on pure ad-hocism. The blockade Jafna so that the supply compulsion of keeping Mamata of arms to LTTE dried up, why we Banerjee mollified effectively did not use the Air Force and torpedoed the treaty. Navy to ensure that Sri Lanka did not run to other powers for help, is Up to 1935 Sri Lanka had beyond comprehension. Without administrative and political thinking through all the connections with India. The consequences of armed administrative system in Sri intervention Rajiv Gandhi plunged Lanka is very much the same as us into Sri Lanka. At the cost of that in India and the basic ethos of horrendous casualties the Indian government is identical. Sinhala is Army did suppress LTTE and gave a Sanskrit based language and breathing space to the Sri Lankan there are lakhs of Tamils of Indian security forces to eliminate highly origin who live in Sri Lanka. violent militancy launched by JVP Because of Sinhala intolerance the in Central and Southern Sri Tamils increasingly moved Lanka. At the very movement towards breaking away from when we could have permanently Sinhala majority areas and eliminated LTTE VP Singh ultimately this took the form of suddenly withdrew the Indian demanding an independent Tamil Army. The only possible State in Northern and Eastern Sri consequence of this could be civil Lanka under the aegis of war and ultimately Mahinda Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam Rajapaksh, the President of Sri (LTTE). Ultimately LTTE Lanka, built up the Sri Lankan developed into the most powerful Army into a formidable fighting instrument of insurgency in the force and dealt a deathblow to world and virtually threatened the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 72 LTTE. Today Sri Lanka stands to us. That would be the sensible united once again. thing to do. Instead, under pressure from DMK, our India has several interests in Sri government for the first time in its Lanka, the first being that no history voted for a country specific other power, China, Pakistan, or resolution in United Nations the United States should have a Human Rights Commission and dominant role in that country. Our sided with the United States on a second interest lies in ensuring resolution sponsored by the United that the rights of the Tamils in Sri States which expressed dismay at Lanka are the human rights protected and for record of Sri Lanka this purpose we India has several interests in and demanded that have to encourage Sri Lanka, the first being that Sri Lanka gives the Sri Lankan no other power, China, justice to the Government to Pakistan, or the United States Tamils. Pakistan, work for the proper should have a dominant role in Bangladesh, Nepal, rehabilitation of that country. Our second China, Indonesia, the Tamils who interest lies in ensuring that Malaysia all voted have suffered the rights of the Tamils in Sri against their during the civil Lanka are protected and for resolution and war. Our third and this purpose we have to India stood isolated perhaps most encourage the Sri Lankan as the only Asian important role is to Government to work for the country to vote proper rehabilitation of the ensure that the against an Asian Tamils who have suffered devolution of power friend. Here the during the civil war. enshrined in the pressure of a small 13th Amendment to group in the Sri Lankan Constitution, to Parliament which the UPA the provinces in Sri Lanka, but Government was cultivating in within the framework of a unitary order to retain power, resulted in constitution, take place early and our slamming a torpedo mid-ship the people at local, district and into our own ship and sinking us provincial levels become partners in Sri Lanka. The excuse given is in government. We can only do that as a principled country we this if we retain our influence in had to use the resolution to Sri Lanka and manipulate the pressurise the Sri Lankan various levers of power available Government into devolution of

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 73 power. What it has done is to and that in fact all our policies are remove whatever influence we had based on deep study and analysis. in Sri Lanka and open up that However I, for one, have yet to see country to both Pakistan and any signs of any such a thinking China. This is ad-hocism at its process being in existence at all in worst. Perhaps savants in the government, leave alone it being National Security Council, R&AW exercised. Ad-hocism zindabad! and the Ministry of External

Affairs will come back at me and back to content say that I write out of ignorance

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 74 Some Bold Ideas From Mr. Purno Sangma - A. Surya Prakash

he former Lok Sabha national parties that are at the Speaker Mr. Purno Sangma core of the two main coalitions T has recently flagged some have got weakened. They are now weighty issues which are facing greater pressure from extremely pertinent in the context regional players within their of the crisis of governance in India, coalitions and outside. This in the declining influence of national turn has injected instability into parties, the decay of institutions, the coalitions and produced a the fractious nature of coalitions crisis of governance. The ruling and the precipitous fall in the United Progressive Alliance at the prestige of the office of prime Centre is now a pale shadow of the minister. sturdy coalition that ruled this country between 2004 and 2009 Some of these issues figure in his and the prime minister no longer book A Life in Politics, which was exercises the power and authority released by the Vice-President Mr. that he did some years ago. For a Hamid Ansari on April 10. They politician like Mr. Sangma who have also been dealt with in a has a strong nationalist streak more elaborate manner in a and a desire to pool political and lecture he delivered a fortnight intellectual resources available in ago at the VIF on ‘The the country to try and stem the Functioning of Parliamentary rot, this is the time to speak up Democracy in India’. All these and to press for action. He also issues are inter-related. With the offers some out-of-the-box people opting for diverse political prescriptions that could, especially choices across the country, the two in a deteriorating social and

* A. Surya Prakash – Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 75 political environment, gain Lok Sabha. Therefore, it makes ground. sense to have a prime minister who is a member of that House. The weakening of the office of Also, is it not absurd to have a prime minister is on top of Mr. prime minister who cannot vote on Sangma’s agenda. He is very clear behalf of his government in the that the prime minister must be a Lok Sabha! member of the Lok Sabha – a person who is In the preface to directly elected by his book A Life in The weakening of the office of the people to the prime minister is on top of Mr. Politics, which is a House. He does not Sangma’s agenda. He is very collection of his favour Rajya Sabha clear that the prime minister speeches, Mr. members becoming must be a member of the Lok Sangma dwells on prime ministers, Sabha – a person who is the decline of directly elected by the people because when that institutions. He to the House. He does not happens the favour Rajya Sabha members says: “Our authority and becoming prime ministers, institutions are in legitimacy of the because when that happens a state of decay. I office stands the authority and legitimacy of am particularly weakened and the the office stands weakened and worried about the the prime minister remains prime minister institution of prime beholden either to the leader of remains beholden his party or to the leaders of a minister. I strongly either to the leader coalition who have together feel that the prime of his party or to chosen to install him. minister being the leaders of a subjugated by an coalition who have together chosen extra-constitutional `super’ to install him. Mr. Sangma says authority is a dangerous that under the Constitution, the precedent. Without any personal Union Cabinet headed by the bias, I also feel that since India is prime minister can survive in the largest democracy, it would be office only so long as it commands in the fitness of things if the prime the support of the majority in the minister is elected by the House

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 76 from members of the Lok Sabha. the Constitution should be We should also start thinking and amended to achieve this objective. debating the desirability and As regards no-confidence motions, possibility of electing the prime Mr. Sangma suggests that we minister directly by the people. adopt the German system of a With a population of more than 1.2 constructive vote of no-confidence, billion people, India is capable meaning that the Lok Sabha can enough of producing an able prime vote out a prime minister only minister”. when it has a successor in place. Mr. Sangma “We can perhaps elaborated on this Mr. Sangma elaborated on this consider the theme at the VIF theme at the VIF lecture on feasibility of lecture on March March 31. Over the last 16 adopting the 31. Over the last 16 years, there have been several German model of years, there have instances when the Lok Sabha constitutional/legal has failed to throw up a prime been several provisions for minister, he said. In 1996, a instances when the chief minister (Mr. Deve constructive Votes Lok Sabha has Gowda) was chosen for that of No Confidence. failed to throw up a office. In 1997, it was a Under this model, prime minister, he member of the Upper House the parliament said. In 1996, a (Mr. Gurjal) and again from may express its 2004 onwards (Mr. Manmohan chief minister (Mr. lack of confidence Singh). Deve Gowda) was in the head of chosen for that office. In 1997, it government only by electing a was a member of the Upper House successor by the vote of a majority (Mr. Gurjal) and again from 2004 of Members and requesting the onwards (Mr. Manmohan Singh). President for the appointment of During these periods, no member the successor”. of the Lok Sabha was considered Next, Mr .Sangma talks of to be qualified for the job. He feels coalition politics and federalism. so strongly about it that he says In his view, the functional efficiency of a coalition

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 77 government will largely depend on the government. The success of a whether or not the coalition has coalition will therefore depend on put in place coordination what late Prime Minister V.P. mechanisms to “manage” Singh characterized as contradictions. He says "management of contradictions". governance through coalition This is feasible only if coordination arrangements has more or less mechanisms are perfected and become the order of the day in the made functional within a ruling multi party system. “In the coalition. current (15th) Lok Sabha, forty Following the recent elections to political parties have their five state assemblies, which saw a presence. As of now, the present further fall in the vote share of the UPA II coalition consists of 11 Congress and the Bharatiya parties and is supported from Janata Party, especially in Uttar outside by 9 parties. Running the Pradesh, the regional parties have government by coalition got further emboldened. The formations like this is like running mushroom growth of regional a handicapped race. The parties has inflicted considerable government gets to be hamstrung damage on governance and in taking effective policy/reform encouraged the politics of measures”. blackmail. How does one resolve Mr. Sangma says coalition this? Mr. Sangma says that the partners have their regional, local idea that only national political and ideological agendas which parties should be allowed to they are often unable to contest parliamentary elections, harmonize with the overall could be explored. coalition programme. While the Even more significant is his view Government tries to ventilate its on what the national parties helplessness by referring to should do in the present "coalition compulsions," the circumstances. The biggest constituent partners complain of problem right now is that there is violation of "coalition dharma" by a crisis of leadership. India no

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 78 longer has an acceptable national demand for voters to have the leader and the two main national right to reject all candidates, if parties are on the decline. The they wish to. plight of the Congress and the BJP A clutch of bold ideas from a is a matter of concern from a former Speaker of the Lok Sabha, national point of view; he says and among them: a power sharing hopes that they will become arrangement between the stronger. Meanwhile, there could Congress and the BJP to shake off be a “temporary solution” – the “political blackmailers” and Congress and BJP agreeing to whimsical coalition partners; a share power and to prime minister who provide a national is directly elected government. The biggest problem right now by the Lok Sabha Mr. Sangma also is that there is a crisis of or the people; a focuses on two leadership. India no longer has an acceptable national leader constructive vote of other issues which and the two main national no-confidence; are generic in parties are on the decline. The institutionalised nature. The plight of the Congress and the arrangements for present electoral BJP is a matter of concern coalition system – the-First- from a national point of view; management; Past-the-Post he says and hopes that they will become stronger. compulsory voting system - has its alongside the right flaws. In many to reject all candidates. Any instances, because of the takers? multiplicity of parties and low voting, candidates who have polled the highest votes but have lost their deposits are declared elected. This system needs a fresh look. back to content Compulsory voting may resolve this problem, but this must be implemented alongside the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 79 Setting Up A Central University: Vision, Issues And Debates - Anirban Ganguly

hough the setting up of a debate as to why a large number Central University is the of central universities have to be T prerogative of the Union created without adequate Ministry of Human Resources resources, space and manpower Development (MHRD) it shall be and more importantly without a in the right spirit of adherence to distinct goal for excellence, it the Constitution and to our federal would perhaps be in the best structure if it is done in interest of the entire project if the consultation with the state in selection of a location for the which the university is proposed to Central University of Bihar (CUB) be set up by trying to appreciate is best left to the people of the the special needs and perceptions state to deliberate and decide of the state administration, upon. The Bihar Legislature has already adopted unanimous the elected representatives, resolutions asking the Centre to leading academics and establish the CUB at Motihari in intellectuals. A unilateral East Champaran district and imposition without taking into there is a debate going on within consideration the actual ground Bihar itself on the proposed reality or expectation is bound to location of the new university with generate an atmosphere of a group pitching in for Gaya, distrust and bickering and which was the initial proposal of invariably dilute the larger vision the MHRD and another voting for and goal of the effort. Motihari which has been the While it is a more fundamental favourite spot for the Chief

* Anirban Ganguly – Research Associate, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 80 Minister, Nitish Kumar. By country is one thing, but to appearing to be intransigent on its formulate a unique vision and aim choice of Gaya, the MHRD is only for each one of them needs a further widening the divide and different approach altogether. generating adverse reaction at a Historically; the setting up of time when it can well do without institutions of higher learning had such a furor. In fact our national been a vibrant part of the Indian tendency of parachuting a central civilisational experience. The institution of higher learning by ancient Indian universities of disregarding the ethos of the Takshaśilā, people and the Nālandā, Valabhī ground realities It is true that regional and Vikramaśilā has nearly always aspirations are growing and it were some of the prevented such is legitimate that the young in leading knowledge- institutions from the states and in the districts lighthouses of the evolving into aspire for national institutions ancient world and centres of academic that can bring them en par were unique in excellence. It is with the youth in the metros but it does not seem to serve their growth and in true that regional the purpose if such initiatives their approach to aspirations are are divorced from the actual knowledge and in growing and it is needs and possibilities of the their method of legitimate that the region. imparting it. The young in the states ancient Indians and in the districts aspire for were adept at creating these national institutions that can institutions which grew in an bring them en par with the youth organic manner over a period of in the metros but it does not seem time. The process of this growth to serve the purpose if such seems to have been so steady and initiatives are divorced from the so rooted to the ethos and actual needs and possibilities of demands of the age that the the region. Therefore passing an institutions thrived for centuries act that declares the setting up of providing intellectual direction to 14 central universities all over the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 81 the evolution of civilisations and Purusapura (modern Peshawar) in more importantly also served to the North and Samatata in the facilitate – in those days of East.’ The university of Takshaśilā intimidating distances – is said to have had such a vibrant interactions between world and erudite faculty that they civilisations. They lived ‘could attract hundreds of students dynamically and grew and only from distant parts of the sub- saw decadence and destruction at continent, in-spite of the long and the hands of invading hordes. It dangerous journey which they had has been rightly pointed out that to undergo.’ It was then believed the centres of higher learning in that the ‘knowledge of these ancient India ‘were unique in their teachers put together represented organisation and scholarship everything that was worth during those distant times when knowing in those days’ and the elsewhere in the world very few institution developed a great had thought of organised reputation in the field of medicine. education at the university level.’ History says that ‘the royal Most of these universities were physician Jivaka who had cured international as well as inter- the king Bimbisara of Magadha provincial in nature and and also the great Buddha himself maintained a high standard with of some painful diseases, had well laid down and meticulously studied medicine’ at Takshaśilā. conceived stipulations and criteria This hoary tradition of developing for admission. seats of higher learning was In Nālandā, it is well known that, eventually broken; a long ‘streams of pilgrim-students interregnum followed and came to wended their way in search of an end when British knowledge’ from Tibet, Korea and administrators decided to form China and in India from the universities on the British model central regions, from distant in the Indian presidencies. The provinces such as the North-West, civilisational memory of past ‘Kāñchipura in the South, indigenous institutions of higher

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 82 learning was lost or at best The much deeper issue, however, became opaque and the British is that post-independence, a wide pattern of the university was debate on the need to develop a upheld as the one to be emulated system of national education, or to and replicated countrywide. Such evolve models of higher education a perception was briefly institutions in tune with the challenged in the first decade of Indian civilisational spirit never the last century by took off. Even those a dynamic models of education nationalist group of The civilisational memory of developed by some Indian scholars past indigenous institutions of of our leading higher learning was lost or at and opinion-leaders national figures – best became opaque and the who advocated the British pattern of the the Basic need of creating university was upheld as the Education, or the national education one to be emulated and Nai Talim model, institutions replicated countrywide. Such a or the Visva- modelled on the perception was briefly Bharati model – challenged in the first decade spirit of past of the last century by a were not Indian educational dynamic nationalist group of sufficiently institutions. The Indian scholars and opinion- explored or movement, though leaders who advocated the experimented with short-lived, did need of creating national in the early years generate much education institutions after independence modelled on the spirit of past debate and saw Indian educational when it was efforts made at institutions. possible to chart building some such out a wholly new representative institutions. Satish and refreshing direction for Indian Chandra Mukherjee (1865-1948), education. The various dimensions Aurobindo Ghose (Sri Aurobindo) of education and perceptions of (1872-1950), Benoy Kumar Sarkar knowledge-imparting within the (1887-1949), Lokmanya Tilak classical Indian paradigm were (1856-1920) were some of the not considered and a serious and pioneers of this movement. wide-ranging effort of re-

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 83 discovering some unique facets of more than half a dozen good the Indian educational past was hotels.’ Connectivity, support never undertaken in right earnest infrastructure, quality of life in allowing – with some the surrounding and faculty modifications – the continuation, quality does not seem to have been replication and perpetuation of the taken into serious consideration British presidency model of when deciding to reconstruct the universities. And in our present Nalanda ‘International’ University zeal for creating such institutions in the same state. The area then we seem to have ignored again our was designated and the university civilisational memory of this past was allowed to take shape and it experience and appear to have was thought that infrastructure omitted deriving inspiration from and the surrounding area would the collective spirit that inspired grow with the growth of the such landmark creations of the university. Why is this precedence ancient world. being overlooked by the MHRD in the current debate is difficult to Without entering into the politics explain. The backwardness of an of the current debate on setting up area cannot in real earnest be the the CUB one can very well point major deciding factor for setting out that the reasons for setting it up an institution of higher up in Gaya, as proffered by the learning. By depriving the area of Union HRD minister does not such an institution one shall appear to be very original, simply relegate it to the realm of innovative or justified. One of the perpetual underdevelopment and reasons cited is that Gaya has isolation. Universities in ancient better infrastructure, is well India never functioned in connected and is a ‘historical and isolation; they were an organic cultural centre of international part of the surrounding and did importance’ while Motihari is 200 initiate great efforts to develop km from the state capital Patna, these areas through a number of and does not have proper support public service initiatives. The infrastructure and has hardly surrounding localities, villages

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 84 and towns were never allowed to University Professor Radhakamal stagnate while the university Mukherjee (1889-1968) who had achieved academic excellence and himself actively participated in the fame. national education movement brought notice to this vital aspect. Similarly, today central It would be worthwhile, for the universities that come up in sake of broadening the discussion, remote locations in the states to cite Mukherjee’s views in some could try and develop such a vision detail. Recalling the initiatives he of community growth and had taken on trying to integrate development, such the university with an approach is in the surrounding tune with the past Universities in ancient India community, Indian educational never functioned in isolation; Mukherjee wrote: experience. A they were an organic part of the surrounding and did number of leading During my term of initiate great efforts to develop Indian these areas through a number Vice- educationists had of public service initiatives. Chancellorship I given thought to The surrounding localities, set up the this aspect of the villages and towns were never University Council functioning of a allowed to stagnate while the of Social Work for a university achieved academic university. In fact, wide minded excellence and fame. there were some programme of formidable adult education, educationists who had undertaken Community Centre, Children’s such an approach in the early play movement, sramdan for the years and had called for its serious common people. Constructive consideration. In his paper on ‘The social work undertaken by the Quest of Academic Values in the student community in the slums University’ veteran philosopher of and villages can not only harness history, scholar of culture and its best energies and aspirations in civilisation and former Vice constructive channels but also Chancellor of the Lucknow abridge the present cleavage

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 85 between the classes and the detained some of our most valiant masses that thwarts social young freedom fighters was progress in so many directions. A converted into housing the IIT full-fledged Department of which rose to become one of the Extramural and Welfare under the premier institutions of technical Dean of Students’ Welfare is a education in the country. In fact, necessary adjunct of a modern like Hijli Motihari and East University that must recognise its Champaran too are intrinsically obligation to the region, the linked to our freedom struggle and neighbourhood and the common to the memory of Gandhi people around it… launching his Satyagraha.

There has been no concerted effort In this context one can also recall at developing such a broader goal that when the Pondicherry of social responsibility. Just Central University was set up in because Motihari does not have 1985 in the outskirts of more than half a dozen good hotels Pondicherry no major does not mean that no new infrastructure support, except for development initiative can come the town itself, existed in the area up there! A central university with the nearest airport, Chennai, could very well be the starting a good 150 km away. Today after point of greater development in two odd decades of the the area. A central university in University’s functioning the area Motihari can work wonders for the has grown significantly and has development and growth of the seen major infrastructure whole of northern Bihar and may development. A number of central even go a long way in arresting universities founded in the states the rising tide of naxalism in the – in Tamil Nadu, Odisha for entire belt. If remoteness is indeed example – are located in remote a criteria what explains the areas. Their failure, for the setting up of an IIT in then remote moment, to attract the requisite Kharagpur in 1950. The historic number of faculties for effective Hijli detention camp which functioning – the Central

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 86 University of Odisha at Koraput Kadaganchi, 30 km from Gulbarga has been able to fill ten out the and 250 km from Hyderabad the sanctioned strength of 48 faculty nearest airport, has succeeded in members, and the Central attracting a good number of University of Tamil Nadu located faculty members demonstrating at Thiruvarur has been able to that academic scope and teaching recruit six of a sanctioned strength opportunities evolved by those of 24 – reflects on the MHRD’s laying the foundation of the new attitude towards these newly institution can and actually does spawned institutions and not on determine the responses to these their location or far-flung other local factors. In a country like ours, with institutions. In a Adequate publicity, massive disparities at all levels country like ours, attractive especially at the educational, it with massive incentives and is only with such initiatives of disparities at all setting up universities at guarantees for levels especially at remote locations that one can research and really hope to bring about the educational, it education growth greater educational parity. is only with such or even special Therefore remoteness of initiatives of recruitment drives location cannot, in all fairness, setting up with special be the principal criteria for universities at rejecting the proposal. provisions remote locations bypassing some of that one can really the more tedious bureaucratic hope to bring about greater procedures could have attracted a educational parity. Therefore greater number of academics – remoteness of location cannot, in especially the young – to these all fairness, be the principal institutions. criteria for rejecting the proposal.

The MHRD seems to have failed to The MHRD appointed Site effectively undertake such a drive. Selection Committee comprising The Central University of experts have also stated that Karnataka, for example, located at Motihari falls in the seismic zone

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 87 and a 1000 acres fertile land understanding and vision of a would go non-productive if the university with the entire CUB comes up in the area. nomenclature and our Shedding the blinkers, one could understanding of it requiring think of turning these factors into massive revision and rethinking. some of the most unique features Moreover, from an international of the proposed university – make outreach point of view, a it a new age model earth-quake university in Motihari, which is resistance edifice with a special close to the border with Nepal, - focus on agricultural and high- with Birgunj, the gateway to yield paddy Nepal being research. In any Gaya should have had long roughly 55 km case the people of back a global education away – can very the area are for the institution in keeping with its well be developed initiative and do international spirit and its with an not appear to be spiritual message, that such an international resisting any move institution has not been outlook and invite thought of in the past six at developing the decades reflects our attitude students from the university. It is a towards the preservation of our neighbouring skewed view of spiritual-cultural heritage and country, grow into things which says the dissemination of their a pre-eminent that seismically perennial message. knowledge hub in active zones be the area and work relegated to the national periphery towards developing that segment when it comes to implementing of the border region important for development schemes. Under that both the countries. Famed author logic, large tracts of northern of the Animal Farm, George India, including some of the Orwell (1903-1950), linked by leading corporate hubs, which fall birth to Motihari, has in any case within a high seismic zone, should already given the place an perhaps be abandoned. What is international profile! Gaya should urgently required is the have had long back a global revamping of our national education institution in keeping

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 88 with its international spirit and its can be formed with leading spiritual message, that such an educationists, intellectuals and institution has not been thought of education administrators to in the past six decades reflects our examine in great detail the entire attitude towards the preservation exercise and vision of setting up of our spiritual-cultural heritage central universities in the country. and the dissemination of their Such periodic scrutiny shall avoid perennial message. ad-hocism in this very vital sector of our national life and perhaps Instead of making it an aid in developing a broad opportunity for jointly working out educational vision for higher a grand educational vision learning in India in consonance between the centre and the state with our civilisational legacy of the effort at developing the CUB is education and learning. fast degenerating into an avoidable blame game and a false Meanwhile the CUB must come up show of strength. An effort at and come up with a grand vision evolving a consensus by setting up and programme fulfilling the a joint committee comprising of aspirations of the people of that experts from the state and the region! centre and with the centre being sensitive to the needs and demands of the state can at least start making things move. In fact back to content a high-level national committee

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 89 A Tale Of Two Abductions In Odisha - Dr. N. Manoharan

bductions or hostage-taking “goodwill gesture”, Bosusco are not new to CPI continued to remain in Maoist A (Maoists). To take recent captivity. Meanwhile, on 24 statistics, between 2005 and April March, Andhra Odisha Border 2012, nearly 1000 incidents of Special Zonal Committee abductions by the Indian Maoists (AOBSZC) of the Maoists led by have been recorded. Ramakrishna kidnapped Jhina Hikaka, a 37-year old tribal leader But, this is for the first time that and a first time member of the two separate groups of Maoists state legislative assembly from the have resorted to simultaneous, Laxmipur constituency, in though uncoordinated, Koraput district of Odisha. kidnappings, that too from a single Interestingly, one group did not state (Odisha). Odisha has now know the plans of the other. joined Chhattisgarh and However, analyzing the demands Jharkhand as top three states of of the two groups, it is clear that India with maximum number of than anything else they wanted abductions by Maoists. release of their ‘comrades’ who have been languishing in various On 14 March 2012, Paulo Bosusco, jails. a 51-year old Italian tour operator was kidnapped by the Odisha Maoists have found hostage-taking State Organising Committee of high-profile people the best bet, (OSOC) of the CPI (Maoists) led by especially to free their colleagues. Sabyasachi Panda from the Earlier they used to indulge in jail Daringbadi area of tribal- breaks. But, with the increase in dominated Kandhamal district security measures, jail-breaking along with an Italian tourist, has been found difficult, risky and Claudio Colangelo, while they uncertain. This apart, such tactics were trekking. While Colangelo are capable of motivating cadres, was freed on 25 March as a especially when the chips are

* Dr. N. Manoharan – Senior Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 90 down. Although the OSOC placed presence for executing the 13-point charter of demands1 to prisoner-hostage swap. The release Bosusco, they relented as Maoists later climbed down to soon as Subashree Panda was leave Ghasi from the list, but released. The kidnappers of stuck to 29 and gave a deadline of Hikaka were more direct; they 18 April. In the bargain, the placed just one demand: release of government has moved its 30 prisoners. They insisted that numbers to 25 including 17 the release had to be in the form of members of CMAS, but has glued instant swap of prisoners with the to its earlier position of “release legislator led by Hikaka’s wife only through bail”. However, as accompanied by lawyer Nihar the 18 April deadline ended and as Ranjan Patnaik in the the Maoists refused to extend the Narayanpatna area. The list of 30 deadline any further, the prisoners includes 15 members of government of Odisha agreed to Naxal-backed Chasi Mulia Adivasi drop charges against 13 (eight Sangha (CMAS) and a Naxal CMAS members and five Maoists). leader Chenda Bhusanam alias Rejecting the offer, the AOBSZC Ghasi, who is accused in the has conveyed its decision to “try” killing of at least 55 security MLA Hikaka at a “Praja Court” personnel and carrying Rs 10 lakh (“People’s Court”) on 25 April reward on his head. They also 2012. want the state government to drop all charges against the prisoners. It has become very difficult for the government to negotiate with the When the Odisha Police kidnappers of MLA Hikaka Association and Odisha Constable, because of AOBSZC’s refusal to Havildar and Sepoy Manasangh engage any mediators. The threatened to boycott counter- communication has thus far been insurgency operations if hardcore through the media. But, in the Maoists like Bhusanam were case of Italian hostage-taking the released, the government finally presence of mediators acceptable agreed to “facilitate” release of 23 to both parties – Dandpani prisoners. “Facilitate” here meant Mohany, convenor of Jan Adhikar that Maoist groups had to move Manch and B. D. Sharma, former bail pleas for release of jailed IAS officer and tribal rights rebels instead of seeking their activist – made the job of immediate release and physical negotiation easier for the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 91 government and in bringing down states, like for instance AOBSZC, the trust deficit. The government’s seem more hardline and do not negotiating team, consisting of bother much about public opinion Odisha Home Secretary U. N. in Odisha. So they target high- Behera, Panchayati Raj Secretary profile people from border districts P. K. Jena and Scheduled Tribe of Odisha as they did in the case of and Scheduled Caste Welfare Vineel Krishna, the then district Secretary S. K. Sarangi, though magistrate of Malkangiri district, not specialised on hostage last year. negotiations, handled those subjects that fell The spate of under the charter abductions clearly of demands placed The spate of abductions clearly shows that Maoists by OSOC. shows that Maoists have have become become desperate. They have desperate. They Of the two groups, lost key leaders like Kishanji have lost key OSOC seems more and Azad; some of the leaders like concerned about important Naxal leaders like Kishanji and Azad; the local public Kobad Ghandy are in prisons some of the opinion. Hence, it of various states; although not important Naxal did not lay hands highly successful, ‘Operation leaders like Kobad on any local official Green Hunt’ has been keeping Ghandy are in or leader who is the Maoists on their toes; their prisons of various more popular. The numbers are depleted; they are states; although not even in a position to OSOC in fact not highly convene its Party Congress slammed successful, that is overdue. kidnapping of ‘Operation Green Hikaka, who Hunt’ has been remains popular among the people keeping the Maoists on their toes; of his constituency. OSOC leader their numbers are depleted; they Panda remarked, “We condemn are not even in a position to the Maoist violence in the Andhra convene its Party Congress that is Pradesh-Orissa border region. overdue. It is, therefore, crucial There was no reason to abduct the not to bend to any of Maoists’ MLA when the talks between the demands. History of hostage- Naxals and the government were taking in India teaches an going on in a cordial manner.” The important lesson: ‘do not be penny groups operating from other wise and pound foolish’. Conceding

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 92 to Maoists demands will be a big complete halt of “Operation Green blunder in the long run. It is Hunt”; withdrawal of the Central nothing wrong to negotiate, but forces from the tribal regions of not on their terms. the state of Odisha; ban on the visit of tourists to tribal areas; End Note: withdrawal of cases against tribal The Charter of demands included: people lodged in jails ‘in the name release of five Maoist leaders of Maoists’; implementation of the including Sabyasachi Panda’s ‘agreement’ with the rebels for the wife, Subhashree Panda; actions release of the then collector of be taken against police officers Malkangiri district in February who are charged with rape, last year; cancel all MoUs with custodial deaths and violence MNCs; ensure the Forest against tribals and villagers; Conservation Act, the PESA and access to potable water; provision other laws are adhered to and of primary education, and health minimum displacement of tribals facilities; irrigation cover for land takes place. in every village; lifting of the ban imposed on ‘mass organisations’; back to content

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 93 Need For An Indian Aerospace Command; Now And Here - Radhakrishna Rao

eteriorating security power of global standing. environment in South Asia D region along with a Indeed, in the context of the massive beef up in defence growing need to take care of preparedness by the People’s Indian interests across the world, Liberation Army(PLA) of China, the need for a heightened have underpinned the need, as situational awareness and quick never before for India, to bolster mobility has become all the more its military might in all its pronounced. Only a well - manifestations to blunt the edge of equipped aerospace command the emerging multi-dimensional supported by a range of advanced security threat. technology satellites could help India meet its emerging strategic Moreover, in the context of India’s challenges and security threats declared national policy of no first with courage and confidence. Of use of nuclear weapons, the course, to begin with, India has country should be extra vigilant in the expertise, infrastructure and guarding against any threat to its technology to create the nucleus territorial integrity. And looking for the proposed tri service beyond the possibility of the aerospace command .But the only security threat, India in keeping stumbling block is the green signal with its status as an emerging from the ruling dispensation in technological power, should New Delhi. There is no denying showcase its military muscle the fact that an Indian tri service encasing the technological prowess aerospace command would be a big that is immune to the threats of morale booster for the Indian technology denial regime. Clearly defence forces. As such, and apparently, India cannot Government of India should afford to lose the opportunity of seriously work towards giving a positioning itself as a military final go ahead for the proposed tri * Radhakrishna Rao – Research Fellow, VIF

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 94 service aerospace command. For seamless integration of the the creation of an aerospace capabilities of all the three wings command is a dynamic and of the services and ensuring free continuously evolving process access to space while denying the focussed on absorbing adversary the opportunity to use technological developments as it space platforms in the event of a mainfests. war. Other well identified objectives of the Indian aerospace Indian Air Force (IAF), which has command would include setting up been vigorously advocating the a system to give out missile launch need for an aerospace command warnings and monitoring the for well over five years now, has launch of enemy satellites. The already made a detailed study of missile defence shield being put in the issues related to the structure place by the Defence Research and and functions of Development aerospace Indeed, the whole exercise of Organisation commands in other creating a multi layered (DRDO) could very countries. But then aerospace command should well become an ultimately be aimed at the type of the ensuring that in a fast important aerospace changing battlefield scenario, component of the command India all the available tools should be aerospace would need to set harnessed to stay at the command. And so up—of course after winning edge of the war. are the unmanned getting clearance drones for from the political leadership of the surveillance and reconnaissance, country—would reflect the needs Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles specific to the Indian situation, (UCAVs), AWACS(Advanced extent of funds available as well as Warning and Control System) technology and expertise that aircraft, a range of missiles meant could be pressed into service for for a variety of end uses and a the purpose. The objectives, constellation of satellites high up however, of the proposed Indian in space. Indeed, the whole tri service aerospace command, exercise of creating a multi would be similar to aerospace layered aerospace command commands in other countries: should ultimately be aimed at enhancing situational awareness ensuring that in a fast changing in all its manifestations, a battlefield scenario, all the homogeneous platform for available tools should be

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 95 harnessed to stay at the winning “There will be a series of defence edge of the war. satellites. Each year, you will find one or two satellites going up. I Perhaps the biggest trump card in cannot reveal you the numbers the endeavour to set up an Indian because they are classified,” noted aerospace command lies in the Saraswat. However, he made it expertise that ISRO has built up clear that each of these satellites in the area of designing and would be equipped for a specific developing state of the art mission and would carry payloads satellites for wide ranging for a variety of end uses including applications. Incidentally, ISRO surveillance and reconnaissance, has so far built and launched more imaging, navigation and than fifty satellites for uses such communications. Going ahead, as scientific research, earth Saraswat stated that “the army, observation, weather watch as the navy and IAF each have their well as communications, own requirements and it would broadcasting and navigation. As not be appropriate to say how things stand now, India does not many each of them would need.” yet have a dedicated defence According to Saraswat, with these satellite even as all the three satellites in orbit, Indian defence wings of services have been forces would be in a position to get clamouring for exclusive satellite a holistic picture of the movement capability to boost their of troops and such other things in preparedness and fighting fitness. the immediate neighbourhood. Not long back, DRDO chief V.K. Saraswat also made a point that Saraswat had pointed out to the satellite systems hold the key to well-conceived plan to build and the successful operationalization launch a series of home grown of India’s ballistic missile defence defence spacecraft systems with shield. surveillance, imaging and navigation capabilities that would Saraswat also revealed that the not only help keep an eye on road map of the series of satellites “hostile developments in the required by the Indian defence neighbourhood” but also help forces has been handed over to the guide the cruise missiles and high Indian Space Research precision weapons to hit targets Organisation(ISRO).But then with with a high degree of accuracy. its current infrastructure and support level, ISRO is having

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 96 tough time meeting its own within a foreseeable future no one requirements. With a single is sure as yet. operational launch vehicle in the form of the four stage Polar Similarly, the glaring failure of Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) the Indian space agency to qualify and a single launch complex the home grown cryogenic engine spread across Sriharikota island stage required to operationalize on India’s eastern coast, ISRO is the three stage Geosynchronous not in a position to accomplish Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) more than 3-4 orbital missions a well on time could jeopardise year. There is no denying the fact many of the high profile projects that India would need to build a lined up by ISRO in the near second launch pad future. To meet the which is very China, which has three growing needs of critical to boosting landlocked launch complexes, Indian defence is now building an ultra- the launch modern costal orbital complex forces, ISRO would missions by a at Wenchang in Hainan Island need to not only substantial extent. which happens to be the build multiple In the context of epicentre of a massive Chinese launch centres and India’s plan to offer naval build up.On its part, a variety of launch its launch services ISRO has hinted at a plan for a vehicles equipped second launch complex. But to international whether it would assume a for varying orbital customers, ISRO practical shape within a missions but also would need to boost foreseeable future no one is involve the Indian its launch sure as yet. industry in a big frequencies to at way in the task of least six a year. China, which has building and delivering satellites three landlocked launch and launch vehicles in a ready to complexes, is now building an use condition. Clearly and ultra-modern costal orbital apparently, India lacks the complex at Wenchang in Hainan “industrial culture “ fine-tuned for Island which happens to be the building spacecraft and space epicentre of a massive Chinese vehicles on a turnkey basis. naval build up.On its part, ISRO has hinted at a plan for a second Perhaps a major hindrance in the launch complex. But whether it way of setting up the Indian would assume a practical shape aerospace command is involving ISRO, a civilian space agency

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 97 committed to the “peaceful use of Indeed, satellites serve as the space,” in the entire exercise. As “ears and eyes” of a well equipped such, the ruling dispensation in aerospace command. The stunning New Delhi should factor the success with which US led allied possibility of such a step forces were able to pull off their attracting international censure intervention in Afghanistan and including the US technology Iraq has highlighted the vital embargo and trade sanction. In importance of the space based fact, in early 1990s, USA had assets in realizing the strategic prevented Russia from goals in a cost effective and timely transferring the cryogenic engine manner. Meteorological satellites technology to India, by citing the forecasting weather for facilitating potential for the diversion of such bombing raids and missile a technology for military build up. launches, navigation satellites In late 1990s, USA had guiding lethal weapons to pressurized India into dropping its designated locations, Agni surface to surface missile reconnaissance satellites locating programme with the observation the exact geographic position of that the Agni series of missiles military targets, electronic ferret developed under India’s Integrated satellites gathering data on radar Guided Missile Development frequencies, communications Programme(IGMDP had drawn satellites providing real time from the solid fuel technology secure links between defence developed for India’s first civilian forces scattered over a vast basic launcher SLV-3 which had geographical stretch for a its successful debut flight in coordinated strategy and ocean 1980.As it is,SLV-3 was developed watch satellites snooping on the under the leadership of the former naval movement of adversaries Indian President Dr.A.P.J.Abdul which have all become a puppet in Kalam during his stint with ISRO. the string of the modern day Incidentally, Dr.Kalam who warfare. Not surprisingly then, subsequently moved to DRDO, the massive intelligence failure spearheaded the IGMDP which suffered by the Indian army before served as a launching pad for and during the short lived Kargil developing a range of Indian skirmish of 1999 has been missiles. attributed to the lack of access to satellite resources.

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 98 On its part IAF is confident that a across a vast geographical swath full fledged tri service aerospace for sustaining “strategic command would go a long way superiority” from the word go. towards ensuring the safety of Indian space assets and guarding The clamour for setting up an the Indian air space with Indian tri service aerospace heightened vigil. The IAF’s command assumed strident defence “space vision 2020” dimensions following the early outlines the need to evolve a 2007 anti satellite test carried out strategy for the optimum by China. This exercise meant to utilization of space assets for refine Chinese space warfare sharpening its techniques combat involved the preparedness. By On its part IAF is confident destruction of an all means, for IAF that a full fledged tri service aging weather uninterrupted aerospace command would go a watch satellite access to dedicated long way towards ensuring the positioned at an constellation of safety of Indian space assets altitude of 537 kms military satellites and guarding the Indian air above the earth by is critically space with heightened vigil. firing a ground important to The IAF’s defence “space vision based medium sustain its 2020” outlines the need to range ballistic strategic evolve a strategy for the missile. And while superiority through optimum utilization of space addressing the assets for sharpening its the concept of “see, United combat preparedness. reach, hit and Commanders protect”. Satellites Conference in New hold the key for the coordinated Delhi in mid-2008, Antony did not and synchronized functioning of mince his words while the aerospace command by underscoring Indian angst over seamlessly integrating weapons the “emergence of anti satellite systems, missiles, radars and weaponry, a new class of heavy lift sensor suites, unmanned aerial off boosters and improved array of vehicles, weaponzied drones, military space devices in our electronics and communications neighbourhood.” network , fighter jets, transport aircraft, logistics and support Of course, Saraswat has been systems, defence forces spread stressing on the need to develop

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 99 technological elements of anti depends on the smartness with satellite systems to prevent the which the information super rogue satellite systems from highways and communications immobilizing the Indian space channels are exploited for real assets. He has also hinted at time coordination of the “strategic developing space laser sensor to moves” of the defence forces monitor and track space based spread across a vast geographical killer devices. To support the swath. Indian aerospace command, DRDO has also a plan up its Equally critical to the successful sleeve to develop and launch operation of an aerospace electronics intelligence and command is a versatile and well communications intelligence endowed C4ISR system. While the satellites as exclusive defence C 4 components of the system— space platforms. computers, command , communications and control— Space capability also constitutes a constitute the backend, key element of the network centric ISR(intelligence, surveillance and system to integrate the resources reconnaissance) make up for the of all the three wings of the front end. The ISR made up of services. Air Force Network orbital, airborne, maritime and (AFNET), inducted into IAF in fixed or mobile, ground based 2010, on which an integrated air sensor systems help find, fix and control and command is being track hostile targets and evaluate built, will be allotted a slew of the damage to enemy targets. On transponders on-board Indian the other hand, with an increasing satellites in INSAT constellation number of smart weapons being operated by ISRO. The fibre including missiles rapidly optic technology based AFNET becoming autonomous, they would grid which will help link IAF’s need to be controlled and command bases, radars, missiles, manipulated through a network batteries and airborne fighters enabled command and control would ultimately pave the way for structure supported by a the complete situational constellation of satellites. awareness of the area that IAF wants to secure and dominate. In Meanwhile, with the Indian Space the ultimate analysis, the success Research Organisation(ISRO) of the aerospace command preparing for the launch of India’s

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 100 fully home-grown microwave earth In April 2009, India’s four stage observation satellite RISAT-1 PSLV had orbited RISAT-II sometime towards the end of microwave imaging spacecraft April, Indian defence forces will that ISRO (Indian Space Research have the reason to cheer. For they Organisation) had realized in tie can look forward to fall back on a up with Israel Aerospace “smart eye in the sky” to enhance Industries (IAI) on a fast track their situational awareness and mode. The launch of 300- surveillance capability along kg.RISAT-II featuring an X-band India’s borders with China and SAR payload was widely perceived Pakistan. as a response to the insecurity complex Clearly and apparently, Indian Significantly, it is generated by the defence forces can easily the all weather and 26/11 Mumbai exploit the potentials of day and night terror attack. The RISAT-II to boost the imaging capability all weather RISAT- intelligence gathering of RISAT-1 that is II has been capability of Indian armed particularly described by forces in big way. For earth relevant to Indian strategic analysts observation and surveillance defence forces from are considered the two faces of as a high tech the point of view of the same coin. RISAT-II’s space platform strategic planning. revisit capability of four to five meant to keep a For the high days is considered tab on terrorist performance advantageous factor in the movements along Synthetic Aperture dynamic monitoring of the India’s Radar (SAR) developments of strategic international payload of RISAT-1 importance. borders with is capable of Pakistan. functioning even under conditions of cloud, dust and haze. Right now, Clearly and apparently, Indian Indian defence forces have limited defence forces can easily exploit access to the IRS constellation of the potentials of RISAT-II to boost earth observation spacecraft being the intelligence gathering operated by ISRO. But then these capability of Indian armed forces satellites being passive systems in big way. For earth observation can function only under the and surveillance are considered conditions of brightness. the two faces of the same coin. RISAT-II’s revisit capability of

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 101 four to five days is considered command in a phased manner, the advantageous factor in the political leadership of the country dynamic monitoring of the should shed its “complacency and developments of strategic indifference” to give a go ahead to importance. Added to that the the setting up of the tri service highly agile RISAT-II can be aerospace command. For in the manoeuvred to change its viewing context of growing, multi- angle as per the requirements of dimensional threat to India’s the users. national security and taking into account the need to position India At the moment, Indian defence as a military power of global forces don’t have a dedicated standing, the setting up of a tri satellite systems meant for service Indian aerospace command surveillance, reconnaissance and cannot be delayed under any intelligence gathering .Of course, circumstance. For the Indian the ISRO built GSAT-7 satellite defence forces, an aerospace which is expected to be launched command could very well be a during 2012-13 will serve as force multiplier and game Indian navy’s exclusive space changer. And for India, it would be platform for reliable , robust and a hedge against the forces bent fool proof communications. upon challenging the territorial While India has a robust level of integrity of the country. technological infrastructure and human expertise required to create a tri service aerospace back to content

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 102 Seminar On ‘Towards Reducing Earthquake Risks Of India’

he Vivekananda earthquakes clearly demonstrated International Foundation the Foundation’s unwavering T (VIF) organized a seminar commitment to create mass ‘Towards Reducing Earthquake awareness about the recurring Risks of India’ in collaboration phenomenon of natural disasters with National Disaster in India as also what needs to be Management Authority (NDMA) done to insulate the country from on April 12, their devastating 2012. Held, by consequences coincidence, both in terms of against the life and property. backdrop of a The conference powerful witnessed an earthquake impressive array which had taken of technical place a day experts, before off the including coast of Indonesia leading to a representatives from the NDMA Tsunami warning across 28 and the reputed Indian Institute littoral states of the India Ocean of Technologies (IITs) sharing a including India, the conference whole range of perspectives on attracted a large number of people earthquake risk mitigations culled including subject experts. Coming from both global and national shortly after the success of VIF’s experiences. Mr. Tejendra first conference on disaster risks Khanna, the Hon’ble Lieutenant reduction, which was held on 24 Governor of Delhi and Mr. M. November 2011, the latest Shashidhar Reddy, Vice Chairman seminar on reducing risks from NDMA, were among notable

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 103 invitees who shared their valuable Honour, the Hon’ble LG of Delhi insights on the subject. Prof. and the Vice Chairman of NDMA Tsuneo Katayama, former respectively. The agenda for the President, International ensuing discussions however was Association for Earthquake set by the Director himself who Engineering and the present said in his welcome address that Director, World Seismic Safety India rose marvelously to natural Initiative, shared a Japanese disasters but she lacked advance perspective on disaster risk preparations to meet them. The management. Prof. NVC Menon, national level initiatives in this former member NDMA, Prof. CVR direction were outlined by Mr. Murty, IIT Chennai, Prof. Ravi Reddy in his inaugural speech. He Sinha, IIT Mumbai, Mr. Anil assured the audience that the Sinha, Vice Chairman, Bihar State early warning system put in place Disaster Management Authority, by India in the post 2004 Tsunami Mr. Mihir R. Bhatt, Director, phase has come up as one of the Disaster Mitigation Institute best in the world. Citing from a Gujrat and Mr. KM Singh, recent study on earthquakes done member NDMA were among other by Nicholas Ambraseys and Roger key speakers at the seminar. Mr. Bilham, Mr Reddy said that more Ajit Doval made the welcome than eighty percent of deaths address while General NC Vij, a which occurred due to earthquakes retired Chief of the Indian Army occurred in countries which were and former Vice Chairman NDMA high on corruption index. made the valedictory address at Corruption leading to poor the seminar. The vote of thanks building constructions is largely was proposed by Lt. Gen (retd) responsible for the maximum Ravi Sawhney, the former DG of number of deaths during Military Intelligence. earthquakes. The situation however is particularly bad for The inaugural session witnessed India, a country woefully short on two speeches, one each by the the number of trained technical Chief Guest and the Guest of manpower - architects, and

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 104 masons among others. In so far as staggering seventy percent of the Delhi is concerned, there are many buildings in East Delhi were unsafe buildings in the city which unsafe from earthquakes as these do not even need an earthquake to were built on pieces of soil, whose collapse. Mr. Reddy however load bearing capacity were much expressed his satisfaction that less compared to other parts of the people are becoming increasingly city. He further observed that aware about the problem. The strict enforcement of regulations Finance Commission has approved and building bye laws were a pilot project worth Rs. 24 cr necessary to protect the city from which is aimed at disaster risk natural disasters such as mitigation and includes among earthquakes. To that end, it is other measures retrofitting of important that all those who are select buildings across India. At in the business of constructing present, there is no laid down houses, especially the builders, policy with regard to retrofitting adhere to correct safety norms. in the country. The NDMA While the Hon’ble LG stressed the however hopes to come out soon need for a policy and an with these guidelines. Besides, the institutional framework to agency has been also active on undertake retrofitting of unsafe several other fronts including buildings, he categorically stated conducting mock drills to sensitize that people living in unsafe houses the general public to respond needed to be moved away to efficiently to earthquakes as also temporary shelters to allow for scenario-based exercises for reconstruction to take place, technical experts to learn from should there be no scope for past experiences. retrofitting of those buildings.

Sharing the perspective of the Over the next two sessions, a Delhi government on the risks galaxy of eminent panelists gave from earthquakes in Delhi, the detailed presentations on various Hon’ble Lieutenant Governor Mr. dimensions of the problem. While Tejendra Khanna remarked that a the first session focused on the

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 105 magnitude of the problem, the The seminar concluded with second session centered on General (retd) NC Vij, former Vice managing the earthquake risks Chairman NDMA delivering the efficiently. Giving a historical valedictory address. perspective of Japan’s He made the following key preparedness against observations: earthquakes, the globally renowned professor of seismology, 1. An informed and well Tsuneo Katayama underlined that prepared public i.e while earthquake prediction is community is the best difficult to realize in the near response to earthquakes. future, structural reinforcement 2. Compliance of the techno- legal regime. remains the only practical 3. Creating credible disaster solution. He also made a point response forces at all levels that whatever laws are enacted to coupled with Civil Defence protect us against the wrath of the and fire and emergency nature must be observed forces will provide a very meticulously by everyone. The credible response capability noted seismologist wisely at all levels. 4. Disaster resilience must be cautioned, “Nature is not always built up as part of the kind to us. Nature is watching for developmental process. This our most unguarded moment”. A should be applicable to three dimensional visual States and Corporate as well, presentation was also made as it has already been made during the seminar as part of an applicable in the Centre. 5. All the housing loans in the effort to sensitize the audience country should be linked towards earthquakes. Also on with earthquake safety display were some of the norms. equipments used by the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Report prepared by Sanjay Kumar as part of their relief and rescue operations across India and back to content overseas.

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 106 Talk On ‘Sufism And Indian Islam’

talk on ‘Sufism and Indian number of people including social Islam’ by Hazrat Maulana activists and religious enthusiasts, A Syed Mohammad Ashraf among others. Mr. Ajit Doval, KC, Sahab Kichhouchhawi, General Director VIF welcomed the guests Secretary, All India Ulama & while Dr. Khawaja Ikram, Mashikh Board was held at Associate Professor at JNU's Vivekananda International Centre of Indian Languages Foundation briefed the (VIF) on 23 Apr audience on the 2012. The event, evolution of which was Sufism in India. organized by the Mr Doval’s VIF in initial remarks, collaboration part of his with the Global welcome speech, Foundation for stressed the Civilizational global need to Harmony develop a (GFCH), aimed greater at understanding and projecting understanding among all human the Sufi legacy in India of beings, regardless of caste, creed tolerance. It was opposed to the or religion. He also underscored more extreme ideologies, which that Sufism, the inner, mystical promoted terrorism, thus dimension of Islam had strengthening India’s social and contributed significantly to India’s religious harmony. The evening rich cultural and religious legacy. session, presided by Mr. Subhash Dr. Khawaja Ikram noted that Chandra, the founding Chairman while the tradition of Sufism GFCH and ZEE Television preceded Islam, the major trends networks, was attended by a large

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 107 of Sufism could be found in many segregated into different classes religions across the world. based on their religion, caste, and region. A place like India where Hazrat Maulana Mohammad language changes virtually every Ashraf, the renowned scholar of 50 kms, it is imperative that Sufism, identified love for the people live in harmony and respect entire humanity and and appreciate the diversity". unconditional devotion to the Rejecting the notion that Jihad Almighty among the basic tenets means offence, Hazrat Maulana of Sufism. Sufism stresses that asserted that it is essentially a purging of all base thoughts from form of defence, especially against the soul is a prerequisite for the the evil which is present within all attainment of higher spiritual of us. Mr Subhash Chandra goals. The self becomes complete wrapped up the proceedings and only when Ilm (Knowledge) is said that he felt personally fused with Isque (devotion). He motivated by the thoughts however said that the primary expressed by Hazrat Maulana and reason for Sufism not being very extended all possible cooperation popular is that it dwells more in spreading the teachings of upon practice, less on theory. "The tolerance and harmony across the notion of heaven and hell doesn't entire nation. affect a Sufi practitioner because fear of hell and greed for a place in Report prepared by Sanjay Kumar heaven are trivial for a Sufi", the noted scholar observed. He further back to content said, "In our society, people are

VIVEK : Issues and Options May – 2012 Issue: I No: V 108