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I Driverless Vehicles' Potential Influence on Cyclist and Pedestrian Driverless Vehicles’ Potential Influence on Cyclist and Pedestrian Facility Preferences THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of City and Regional Planning in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Michael Julian Armstrong Blau, BA Graduate Program in City and Regional Planning The Ohio State University 2015 Master's Examination Committee: Gulsah Akar, advisor Jack Nasar Jason Sudy i Copyright by Michael Julian Armstrong Blau 2015 ii Abstract Research in the field of autonomous vehicle technology focuses on the enhanced safety and convenience it will likely convey to vehicle occupants. This thesis seeks to establish a new and equally important line of inquiry that addresses the same implications for cyclists and pedestrians. It is well-established that motorized traffic volume and speed have a strong influence on non-motorized agents’ behavior and facility preference but whether this will continue to be the case in a driverless environment remains unknown. A stated-preference survey was crafted asking respondents to select their preferred facility in various scenarios with and without the presence of driverless vehicles and on street types of varying motorized traffic volumes and speeds. An ordered logit model was estimated to illustrate that street type had a very strong influence on cyclists’ preferences for more separated facilities as traffic volume and speed increased. The presence of driverless vehicles significantly amplified this trend. Preferences for bike intersection features, pedestrian facilities, and pedestrian crossing behavior are also examined. Infrastructure and policy recommendations are presented as well as suggestions for future research in this nascent field of study. ii Dedication I dedicate this thesis to the countless victims who have lost their lives on the road. It is my hope that this research will contribute to a future in which we can bring the number of needless traffic fatalities closer to zero. iii Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the following people for their guidance, patience, and support during this research: Gulsah Akar David Blau Sasha Gallant Jack Nasar Jason Sudy iv Vita 2009................................................................B.A. Psychology, Goucher College 2012................................................................Transportation Intern City of Asheville, NC 2013 to 2015...................................................Healthy Places Program Assistant Columbus Public Health 2015................................................................Capital Projects and Planning Assistant Central Ohio Transit Authority 2015................................................................Teaching Assistant Driverless Vehicle Transportation Studio City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University Publications Blau, M. (2009). The Straight Way: A Narrative Study of Conversion to Islam. Verge (6). Baltimore: Goucher College. Blau, M. (2009). The American Ummah Project: Using Ethnodramatic Social Action to De-other the Muslim-American Community. Goucher College, Baltimore, MD. Fields of Study Major Field: City and Regional Planning v Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iv Vita .................................................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. x Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Historical Precedents ................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 9 Autonomous Vehicles: Background and State of the Technology ............................................. 9 Projected Timelines ............................................................................................................... 10 State of the Technology ......................................................................................................... 11 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... 17 Behavior Determinants .......................................................................................................... 20 Cyclists ...................................................................................................................................... 27 Bike Infrastructure ................................................................................................................. 27 Behavior Determinants .......................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 3: Methodology ............................................................................................................... 36 Recruitment ............................................................................................................................... 36 vi Response Rate ........................................................................................................................... 38 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................................. 40 Transportation Characteristics................................................................................................... 41 Survey Content .......................................................................................................................... 43 General Results ......................................................................................................................... 45 Ordered Logit Model ................................................................................................................. 52 Hypothesized Results ............................................................................................................ 54 Post-estimation Analysis ....................................................................................................... 61 Multinomial Logit Model .......................................................................................................... 63 Comparisons .............................................................................................................................. 66 Limitations ................................................................................................................................ 67 Chapter 5: Discussion ................................................................................................................... 73 Bike and Pedestrian Infrastructure in a Driverless World ......................................................... 73 Bike Infrastructure ................................................................................................................. 75 Bike Intersection Features ..................................................................................................... 78 Chapter 6: Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................ 76 Public Awareness Campaign ..................................................................................................... 78 Small-Scale Driverless Technology as an Educational Tool .................................................... 80 Autonomous Vehicle Operating Standards—Collision Avoidance .......................................... 83 The Full Picture: ........................................................................................................................ 88 vii Bike and Pedestrian Facilities and Autonomous Vehicle Operating Standards........................ 88 I. Vehicle ................................................................................................................................... 88 Chapter 7: Conclusion................................................................................................................... 92 References ..................................................................................................................................... 95 Appendix A: Survey Instrument ................................................................................................. 111 Appendix B: Survey Response Rates by Question ................................................................... 131 Appendix C: Change in Bike Faci lity Preference by Street Type, Revised .............................. 133 Appendix D: Bike Facilities Generalized Ordered Logit Model ................................................ 134 Appendix E: Other
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