Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2006, 2, 189–192 Hedging or speculation in derivative markets: the case of energy futures contracts Cetin Ciner Cameron School of Business, University of N. Carolina – Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403, USA E-mail:
[email protected] This study examines whether hedging or speculation is the principal motive behind trading in energy futures markets. This question is important since facilitating risk allocation is considered to be one of the main benefits of the futures markets, while excess speculation in futures markets could destabilize the underlying spot market. Studying the linkage between volume and subsequent price movements leads to the conclusion that hedgers dominate speculators in all of the markets examined. I. Introduction spot markets. Thus, the amount of risk allocation, relative to speculation, is important to regulators and An important benefit of futures markets to society, policy makers. along with price discovery, stems from the facilitation Ederington and Lee (2002) report on the first study of risk allocation (hedging). While many empirical that examines who actually trades in a major futures studies focus on the accuracy of price discovery, few market. They document the trading activities of the papers provide evidence on the relative importance of 223 largest traders in the heating oil futures market, hedging versus speculation as the main form of who account for almost 80% of the total trading trading activity in futures markets.1 This bifurcation volume and open interest. They show that potential is important because futures markets are sometimes hedgers, defined as traders who have positions on portrayed as forums where informed traders can both spot and futures markets, dominate the trading fleece unsophisticated investors, leading to regulatory activity.