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Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly

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Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1, JUNE 2000 University of Pittsburgh PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Center for Social and Urban Research OUT-MIGRATION STEADY IN REGION Census data released in Annual Net Migration in the Pittsburgh Region: INSIDE THIS ISSUE: March 2000 show that the 1994-1999 number of people moving 5,000 Detailed Migration Data 2 Employment Trends 4 out of the Pittsburgh region 0 Construction Jobs Surge 5 over the period July 1, 1998 Unemployment Data 6 through June 30, 1999 -5,000 exceeded the number -10,000 moving here by 12,641 people% This was slightly -15,000 You are reading the initial is- 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 sue of a new quarterly publi- less than the level of net cation dedicated entirely to out-migration for the Allegheny County lost the residents, called domestic economic change in the Pitts- previous year, which most with 10,824 more migration and international burgh region In future issues measured 12,749% As a people moving out than immigration flows% Net you will read about: percentage of population, moving in% The remaining domestic out-migration for total net out-migration five counties in the the region totaled 13,480 in Industries that are driving economic growth in the region from the region measured metropolitan region the most recent year while just under 0%5% annually% experienced a combined 839 net international The changing workforce in Census estimates of net net out-migration of only immigrants were estimated Western Pennsylvania out-migration have been 1,817 people% by the Census as settling Analysis of the latest economic over 0%4% of population The Census further here% (See related story on and demographic data affecting annually for the last four breaks down net migration page 3%) the regional economy years% estimates into the Continued on page 2 Within the region, movement of current U%S% WHAT IS PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY? This is the initial issue extension of the and other economic and To ensure that you of a new publication to be continuing work done at social factors that directly continue to receive PEQ focused entirely on the the Center for Social and impact the future of the throughout the year, make evolving economy of the Urban Research at the region% PEQ will focus sure to fill out the free Pittsburgh region% The University of Pittsburgh% entirely on the local subscription form on the goal of the Pittsburgh Each issue will include economy% Once you have last page of this issue% Economic Quarterly the latest data on regional had a chance to look over The editor of the (PEQ) will be to highlight employment and econ- this initial issue, we Pittsburgh Economic the important economic omic conditions% Feature would appreciate your Quarterly can be reached trends that impact the articles will cover a feedback on how useful it via email at peq@pitt%edu% regional economy and the variety of issues relating is to you and what topics competitiveness of local to regional industries and you think should be industries% This is an how they are changing included in future issues% PAGE 2 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1 Components of Change in the Pittsburgh Regional Population 931-92 942-9 953-9 964-9 975-9 986-9 997-9 98-9 a9) Net Domestic Migration 838 -11,21 -58,68 -811,60 -411,93 -413,63 -013,61 -13,48 b9) International Migration 19,28 953 951 10,09 10,13 15,06 896 83 c7) Births 300,54 310,15 248,88 228,51 297,26 296,63 296,35 26,65 d3) Deaths 276,60 287,31 207,73 217,48 217,33 208,04 247,25 27,39 T2otal Change (a+b+c-d) 69,12 23,55 -66,62 -79,47 -610,87 -013,97 -613,64 -13,37 N4atural Population Change 33,94 23,83 14,14 19,03 -26 -11,40 -589 -73 N8et Migration (a+b) 24,17 -627 -07,76 -810,51 -410,80 -912,57 -112,74 -12,64 Source: Bureau of the Census OUT-MIGRATION STEADY IN REGION Continued from page 1 influence was a slowdown as well in the last 15 years% steady in both good times in the national economy The economic factors that and bad% The result is that The rate of migration in during that time% The lower pushed up local out- the out-migration in 1984 the Pittsburgh region has job growth in the national migration in the mid-1980s was dominated by working experienced significant economy decreased the primarily affected younger age people% Current out- volatility over the last two labor demand elsewhere working age parts of the migration has a significant decades as both local and and consequently the population% At the same portion coming from national economic condi- incentive for people to time, there has been and retirees% tions have changed% move from the region% continues to be out- Additional details on Out-migration is The composition of migration of the elderly migration in the United continuing but at a fraction migration from the region population in the region, States can be obtained on of the rate of the mid- has changed significantly but its rate tends to be the web at www%pitt%edu/ 1980s% At its peak in 1984, ~ucsur/migration%html the rate of net out- migration from the Pittsburgh region reached Age Group Composition of Net Migration: 1985 vs 1999 50,000 annually, almost Age 65+ four times the level 10% measured in the latest year% The current rate of net out-migration is higher Age 40-64 19% Age 20-39 43% than the levels of the first Age 65+ half of the 1990s% Between 48% 1991 and 1995, the level of net out-migration averaged Age 20-39 just over 5,000 people per 71% year% There are several Age 40-64 factors for the slowdown in 9% migration in the early 1984-1985 1998-1999 1990s% One significant Source: Pittsburgh REMI Model, University Center for Social and Urban Research PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY PAGE 3 ELDERLY POPULATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE Recent population esti- estimate is consistent with Forecasts show that the eld- high at over 17%5% of the mates released by the Bu- projections by the Pennsyl- erly population is expected total population% The rela- reau of the Census confirm vania State Data Center and to continue declining until tively large elderly popula- projections that the elderly the University of Pittsburgh at least 2010% The root tion here is responsible for population in the Pittsburgh that the overall size of the causes of this decline are the extremely low rate of region is continuing to de- elderly population peaked the combined pressures of natural population in the re- cline% Between July 1, in the region between 1995 mortality rates and out-mi- gion% Local mortality rates 1998 and June 30, 1999, the and 1996% gration of the elderly, are expected to exceed size of the population age Only in the last year has which together are exceed- birth rates for several more 65 and older decreased by the relative rate of decrease ing the size of the age co- years% This will have a 3,996 from 417,252 to in the elderly population hort turning 65 annually% dampening effect on popu- 413,256 for the six county exceeded the rate of decline The relative size of the lation growth for most of metropolitan region% This in the under 65 population% elderly population remains the next decade% There are several im- Pittsburgh Region Population By Age Group 1995-1999 pacts that a declining eld- erly population can be ex- A5ge Group 1699 1799 1899 1999 199 pected to have on the local 635+ 4124,66 4823,92 4220,77 4617,25 413,25 economy% Overall retire- ment income flowing into U6nder 65 10,961,37 10,949,85 17,938,61 10,927,88 1,918,08 Continued on page 7 Source: Bureau of the Census HOW LOW IS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION? One of the major com- tween 1998 and 1999, this California, and Texas, the growth areas of the coun- ponents of regional migra- translates to less than regional rate of interna- try% Atlanta and San Fran- tion comes from the settle- 0%04% of the total regional tional immigration is sig- cisco measured 11,788 and ment of new international population% This rate is less nificantly lower than even 17,199 international immi- immigrants across the U%S% than almost every other comparable Midwest re- grants, respectively, in the Census estimates of recent metropolitan region in the gions, including Cleveland same time period% international immigration country and is a major rea- with 1,940 international International immigra- in the Pittsburgh region son the estimate of regional immigrants between 1998 tion can have a significant have been some of the low- net migration continues to and 1999, or Columbus impact on the total migra- est in the nation% With only be negative% While it may with 1,840% These levels do tion rate for a region% Many 839 net international immi- not be fair to compare Pitts- not compare with the rate regions are experiencing grants measured as settling burgh to the regular ports of international immigra- net out-migration of current in the Pittsburgh region be- of entry such as New York, tion in some of the high- U%S% residents, called do- mestic net migration by the Net Migration July 1, 1998 - June 30,1999 by County Census% Pittsburghs mea- sured net domestic out-mi- Domestic Intl County Total gration of 13,480 (or 0%5% of population) compares fa- Allegheny -11,602 778 -10,824 vorably to Philadelphia, Beaver -1,551 -3 -1,554 Cleveland, and many other Butler 1,196 37 1,233 regions% Even Massachu- Fayette -425 15 -410 setts, which is considered Washington -104 3 -101 to be a high technology Westmoreland -994 9 -985 area, is estimated by the Census to have had net do- Total Pittsburgh Region: -13,480 839 -12,641 mestic out-migration of Source: Bureau of the Census Continued on page 6 PAGE 4 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1 Pittsburgh Metropolitan Region Employment
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