VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1, JUNE 2000 University of Pittsburgh

PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY

Center for Social and Urban Research

OUT-MIGRATION STEADY IN REGION Census data released in Annual Net Migration in the Pittsburgh Region: INSIDE THIS ISSUE: March 2000 show that the 1994-1999 number of people moving 5,000 Detailed Migration Data 2 Employment Trends 4 out of the Pittsburgh region 0 Construction Jobs Surge 5 over the period July 1, 1998 Unemployment Data 6 through June 30, 1999 -5,000 exceeded the number -10,000 moving here by 12,641 people% This was slightly -15,000 You are reading the initial is- 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 sue of a new quarterly publi- less than the level of net cation dedicated entirely to out-migration for the Allegheny County lost the residents, called domestic economic change in the Pitts- previous year, which most with 10,824 more migration and international burgh region In future issues measured 12,749% As a people moving out than immigration flows% Net you will read about: percentage of population, moving in% The remaining domestic out-migration for total net out-migration five counties in the the region totaled 13,480 in • Industries that are driving economic growth in the region from the region measured metropolitan region the most recent year while just under 0%5% annually% experienced a combined 839 net international • The changing workforce in Census estimates of net net out-migration of only immigrants were estimated Western Pennsylvania out-migration have been 1,817 people% by the Census as settling • Analysis of the latest economic over 0%4% of population The Census further here% (See related story on and demographic data affecting annually for the last four breaks down net migration page 3%) the regional economy years% estimates into the Continued on page 2 Within the region, movement of current U%S%

WHAT IS PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY? This is the initial issue extension of the and other economic and To ensure that you of a new publication to be continuing work done at social factors that directly continue to receive PEQ focused entirely on the the Center for Social and impact the future of the throughout the year, make evolving economy of the Urban Research at the region% PEQ will focus sure to fill out the free Pittsburgh region% The University of Pittsburgh% entirely on the local subscription form on the goal of the Pittsburgh Each issue will include economy% Once you have last page of this issue% Economic Quarterly the latest data on regional had a chance to look over The editor of the (PEQ) will be to highlight employment and econ- this initial issue, we Pittsburgh Economic the important economic omic conditions% Feature would appreciate your Quarterly can be reached trends that impact the articles will cover a feedback on how useful it via email at peq@pitt%edu% regional economy and the variety of issues relating is to you and what topics competitiveness of local to regional industries and you think should be industries% This is an how they are changing included in future issues% PAGE 2 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

Components of Change in the Pittsburgh Regional Population

931-92 942-9 953-9 964-9 975-9 986-9 997-9 98-9 a9) Net Domestic Migration 838 -11,21 -58,68 -811,60 -411,93 -413,63 -013,61 -13,48 b9) International Migration 19,28 953 951 10,09 10,13 15,06 896 83 c7) Births 300,54 310,15 248,88 228,51 297,26 296,63 296,35 26,65 d3) Deaths 276,60 287,31 207,73 217,48 217,33 208,04 247,25 27,39

T2otal Change (a+b+c-d) 69,12 23,55 -66,62 -79,47 -610,87 -013,97 -613,64 -13,37

N4atural Population Change 33,94 23,83 14,14 19,03 -26 -11,40 -589 -73 N8et Migration (a+b) 24,17 -627 -07,76 -810,51 -410,80 -912,57 -112,74 -12,64 Source: Bureau of the Census OUT-MIGRATION STEADY IN REGION Continued from page 1 influence was a slowdown as well in the last 15 years% steady in both good times in the national economy The economic factors that and bad% The result is that The rate of migration in during that time% The lower pushed up local out- the out-migration in 1984 the Pittsburgh region has job growth in the national migration in the mid-1980s was dominated by working experienced significant economy decreased the primarily affected younger age people% Current out- volatility over the last two labor demand elsewhere working age parts of the migration has a significant decades as both local and and consequently the population% At the same portion coming from national economic condi- incentive for people to time, there has been and retirees% tions have changed% move from the region% continues to be out- Additional details on Out-migration is The composition of migration of the elderly migration in the United continuing but at a fraction migration from the region population in the region, States can be obtained on of the rate of the mid- has changed significantly but its rate tends to be the web at www%pitt%edu/ 1980s% At its peak in 1984, ~ucsur/migration%html the rate of net out- migration from the Pittsburgh region reached Age Group Composition of Net Migration: 1985 vs 1999 50,000 annually, almost Age 65+ four times the level 10% measured in the latest year% The current rate of net out-migration is higher Age 40-64 19% Age 20-39 43% than the levels of the first Age 65+ half of the 1990s% Between 48% 1991 and 1995, the level of net out-migration averaged Age 20-39 just over 5,000 people per 71% year% There are several Age 40-64 factors for the slowdown in 9% migration in the early 1984-1985 1998-1999 1990s% One significant Source: Pittsburgh REMI Model, University Center for Social and Urban Research PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY PAGE 3 ELDERLY POPULATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE Recent population esti- estimate is consistent with Forecasts show that the eld- high at over 17%5% of the mates released by the Bu- projections by the Pennsyl- erly population is expected total population% The rela- reau of the Census confirm vania State Data Center and to continue declining until tively large elderly popula- projections that the elderly the University of Pittsburgh at least 2010% The root tion here is responsible for population in the Pittsburgh that the overall size of the causes of this decline are the extremely low rate of region is continuing to de- elderly population peaked the combined pressures of natural population in the re- cline% Between July 1, in the region between 1995 mortality rates and out-mi- gion% Local mortality rates 1998 and June 30, 1999, the and 1996% gration of the elderly, are expected to exceed size of the population age Only in the last year has which together are exceed- birth rates for several more 65 and older decreased by the relative rate of decrease ing the size of the age co- years% This will have a 3,996 from 417,252 to in the elderly population hort turning 65 annually% dampening effect on popu- 413,256 for the six county exceeded the rate of decline The relative size of the lation growth for most of metropolitan region% This in the under 65 population% elderly population remains the next decade% There are several im- Pittsburgh Region Population By Age Group 1995-1999 pacts that a declining eld- erly population can be ex- A5ge Group 1699 1799 1899 1999 199 pected to have on the local 635+ 4124,66 4823,92 4220,77 4617,25 413,25 economy% Overall retire- ment income flowing into U6nder 65 10,961,37 10,949,85 17,938,61 10,927,88 1,918,08 Continued on page 7 Source: Bureau of the Census HOW LOW IS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION?

One of the major com- tween 1998 and 1999, this California, and Texas, the growth areas of the coun- ponents of regional migra- translates to less than regional rate of interna- try% Atlanta and San Fran- tion comes from the settle- 0%04% of the total regional tional immigration is sig- cisco measured 11,788 and ment of new international population% This rate is less nificantly lower than even 17,199 international immi- immigrants across the U%S% than almost every other comparable Midwest re- grants, respectively, in the Census estimates of recent metropolitan region in the gions, including Cleveland same time period% international immigration country and is a major rea- with 1,940 international International immigra- in the Pittsburgh region son the estimate of regional immigrants between 1998 tion can have a significant have been some of the low- net migration continues to and 1999, or Columbus impact on the total migra- est in the nation% With only be negative% While it may with 1,840% These levels do tion rate for a region% Many 839 net international immi- not be fair to compare Pitts- not compare with the rate regions are experiencing grants measured as settling burgh to the regular ports of international immigra- net out-migration of current in the Pittsburgh region be- of entry such as New York, tion in some of the high- U%S% residents, called do- mestic net migration by the Net Migration July 1, 1998 - June 30,1999 by County Census% Pittsburgh’s mea- sured net domestic out-mi- Domestic Intl County Total gration of 13,480 (or 0%5% of population) compares fa- Allegheny -11,602 778 -10,824 vorably to Philadelphia, Beaver -1,551 -3 -1,554 Cleveland, and many other Butler 1,196 37 1,233 regions% Even Massachu- Fayette -425 15 -410 setts, which is considered Washington -104 3 -101 to be a high technology Westmoreland -994 9 -985 area, is estimated by the Census to have had net do- Total Pittsburgh Region: -13,480 839 -12,641 mestic out-migration of Source: Bureau of the Census Continued on page 6 PAGE 4 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

Pittsburgh Metropolitan Region Employment by Sector

1999 2000 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mining 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,100 4,500 4,500 4,400 4,500 4,500 Construction 52,400 54,100 59,600 55,900 55,000 55,100 53,800 50,700 49,000 48,800 51,100 56,400 Manufacturing 137,500 140,600 138,400 140,700 137,900 140,300 138,200 139,800 137,500 137,200 138,200 138,300 Durable 97,900 100,600 98,700 100,600 98,100 100,200 98,300 99,800 97,700 97,500 98,400 98,200 Non-durable 39,600 39,600 39,700 39,800 39,800 39,900 39,900 40,000 39,700 39,700 39,800 40,100 TPU 69,600 69,500 67,900 67,700 69,000 69,800 69,800 70,000 69,300 69,100 69,100 69,100 Trade 260,100 263,000 260,900 261,100 259,100 260,900 264,500 267,800 256,700 255,600 256,600 257,600 FIRE 66,700 67,300 67,400 67,300 66,700 66,400 66,800 67,000 66,800 67,000 67,100 67,400 Services 391,300 391,800 390,300 388,200 391,100 391,700 391,300 389,500 382,200 384,300 386,400 393,300 Government 125,400 122,900 114,200 112,400 120,100 124,200 125,600 124,600 122,000 124,800 126,000 126,500

Source: PA Deptartment of Labor and Industry, Pennsulvania Labor Market Information Database System (PALMIDS)

EMPLOYMENT CHANGES IN 1999

Service industries con- from the service sector% 1%3% (see related story on and has nearly stopped in tinued to expand in the re- Wholesale and retail page 5)% The result was that the mid-1990s% Since 1996, gion and represented the trade sector jobs have been construction employment overall manufacturing em- single largest growth sector the second strongest constituted a far larger part ployment has been rela- in 1999% Over 35% of new growth sector in recent of employment growth than tively stable% jobs were created in the ser- years% The biggest differ- has been typical% The national economic vice sector alone% While ence between 1999 and the Manufacturing had es- expansion has boosted na- this is a significant part of rest of the 1990s was the sentially no growth in tional economic output and employment growth in the impact of construction in- 1999, both beginning and demand on manufacturing% region, the service sector dustry employment on ending the year at 137,500 With the steel industry re- has typically been an even overall regional employ- jobs% While manufacturing ported to be operating at bigger part of employment ment growth% Construction is not contributing to job near capacity levels in the growth over the course of employment grew at a rate growth, it is also no longer U%S%, it seems unlikely that the 1990s% Between 1990 of over 9% in 1999, com- decreasing% The long-term there will be a major drop- and 1999, over 56% of all pared to an overall employ- decline in manufacturing off in manufacturing em- net new jobs came directly ment growth rate of only jobs in the region slowed ployment in the near term%

Pittsburgh R egion Construction Industry Employment

Seasonal High/Low % Change Recent M onths Sub-Industry Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 7/98-7/99 1/99- 1/00 Feb-00 M ar-00 Apr-00 General Building 10,400 12,800 11,200 14,200 12,000 10.9% 7.1% 11,600 12,300 13,100 Heavy Construction 6,000 9,000 6,100 10,200 7,100 13.3% 16.4% 7,200 7,900 9,900 Special Trades 26,100 32,100 27,100 35,200 29,900 9.7% 10.3% 30,000 30,900 33,400

Total: 42,500 53,900 44,900 59,600 49,000 10.6% 9.1% 48,800 51,100 56,400

Source: PA Deptartment of Labor and Industry, Pennsulvania Labor Market Information Database System (PALMIDS) PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY PAGE 5

How Different Was 1999? Source of Employment Growth By Sector

Gover nment Cons tr uction Gover nment 0% 10% 5%

TPU 5% Cons tr uction 25% Services 35%

Trade 16%

Services 56%

TPU FIRE FIRE 7% 13% 6% Trade 22% 1990-1999 Jan 1999-Jan 2000 CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT SURGES Construction sector em- struction sector alone This As a broad measure, one per- in the construction industry ployment continued to ex- is almost 25 times the share son-year of construction em- this year One indication of pand locally at a rate far in of new jobs that were ac- ployment is generated for this is that between January excess of overall job creation counted for by the construc- each $100,000 of construc- 1999 and January 2000, here At an annual rate, con- tion industry on average dur- tion spending The full-time Heavy Construction employ- struction employment in the ing the 1990s jobs that will be generated ment grew by over 16% employment region ex- Employment growth is a once a project is completed For the immediate future, panded by over 9% between double edged sword when can only be determined from the outlook for construction January 1999 and January forecasting the future of the the details of each project employment is positive 2000 A more telling mea- local economy Construc- Mid-winter employment There are indications from sure may be in the compari- tion projects are themselves in construction for the region local unions that in fact there son of peak summer months temporary, as is the employ- is higher now that it has been does not exist a local labor when construction employ- ment they generate At the in a decade The combined force necessary to match the ment is highest Between same time, new construction factors of a mild winter and workforce expansion in July 1998 and July 1999, the results from new investment several ongoing large projects already underway rate of construction job in the region and is an im- projects, including two sta- The demand for local con- growth exceeded 106% portant leading indicator of diums and new operations struction jobs has probably This has had a direct impact future growth centers for both PNC Bank exhausted the local labor on the local economy with The level of employment and Mellon Bank, were supply with particular short- over 25% of all new growth generated by a particular some of the main causes for ages in skilled occupations accounted for by the con- project varies a great deal the high winter employment

Seasonal Change in Construction Employment - Average % Difference of Monthly Construction Employment from Annual Average: 1995-1999 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Jan Feb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec PAGE 6 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1 Unemployment Rate Heading Lower

Preliminary unemploy- lower unemployment rates Employment growth is each year since 1995% If ment rates for the Pitts- compared to April 1999, only one factor that affects employment growth is burgh region dropped to a with Beaver County having the regional unemployment comparable this year, the seasonally adjusted 3%7% in the largest drop% rate% Out-migration of summer months will likely April% This represents the Low unemployment workers tightens the local see a new multi- decade lowest seasonally adjusted rates may be surprising labor supply which would low unemployment rates level of employment in when compared to the low push down unemployment for the region% three decades% All indi- overall rate of employment even if employment growth Strong labor demand in vidual counties in the re- growth in the region mea- were stagnant% the region will have a big- gion had significantly sured at 1%3% in 1999% The region’s non sea- ger impact on counties with sonally adjusted unem- the highest unemployment Regional Unemployment Rates By County ployment rate reached a 30- levels% As regional unem- Recent M onths Recent Years year low of 3%5% in De- ployment levels decrease, Apr-00 M ar-00 Apr-99 Apr-98 Apr-97 cember 1999% As employ- one consequence is that the Allegheny 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.5 ment expands heading into disparity in economic con- Beaver 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.6 5.1 summer, it can be expected ditions across counties will Butler 3.4 4.3 4.0 4.3 5.1 that the overall unemploy- continue to converge% In Fayette 6.1 7.7 7.0 6.9 8.9 ment rate will continue to April 1997, the difference decrease% The regional between the highest and Washington 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.5 construction industry alone lowest county unemploy- Westmoreland 4.2 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.5 has increased employment ment levels in the region Pittsburgh MSA 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.4 5.0 an average of 11,000 be- was 4%4% compared to United States 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.3 5.0 tween January and July 2%9% in April 2000% Source: PA Dept' of Labor and Industry International Migration

Continued from page 3 that are strongest here ar- dents here are considered people are awaiting a 8,656 in the last re- rived early in the 20th Cen- temporary residents, they change in their visa status, ported year% The difference tury, if not earlier% Recent do not get considered as mi- they will not be included is that Massachusetts also U%S% immigration has been grants to the region% in annual population esti- attracted 14,939 interna- predominantly Hispanic, Some foreign students mates until the paperwork tional immigrants in the which Pittsburgh has never here do convert their visa is completed% Taking into same period, which more attracted in any significant status and become perma- account the delay in INS than made up for the loss numbers% nent residents of the United procedures it is unlikely from domestic migration% Low international immi- States% This group should that any significant changes In many ways, it is the com- gration is also surprising be counted as new immi- in the flow of international plete lack of international when the demographics of grants and are counted in immigration which has oc- migration that is a major local institutions of higher the international immigrant curred in the last several cause of the continuing education are examined% data each year% The mea- years would yet show up negative migration rate in Local universities have surement of this population in current migration data% total for the region% several thousand interna- is dependent on the pro- The actual computation The extremely low level tional students studying cessing of visa applications of total international immi- of international immigra- here at any given time% It and reporting by the Bureau gration is made even more tion in the Pittsburgh region is important to note that stu- of Immigration and Natu- difficult by the lack of ex- is surprising in many ways% dents here on the most com- ralization Services (INS)% act numbers for illegal im- There is a rich ethnic diver- mon forms of educational A possible issue that could migration% However, there sity in Pittsburgh that is de- visas are not counted at all be distorting this particular is little evidence that Pitts- rived from significant inter- in the international immi- data is the backlog on per- burgh is a major destination national immigration% gration numbers computed manent residency applica- of illegal immigrants% However, the ethnic groups by the Census% Since stu- tions at the INS% While PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY PAGE 7

Pittsburgh Region Unemployment Rate March 1999 - April 2000 5

4%

3

e r r h ch n e e c r u b b r a J m m a M te e M p c e e S D

S eas o nal l y A dj us ted Unadjus ted Elderly Population Decreasing Continued from page 3 the elderly can be expected other industries% the next decade% The large- the region will likely fall to see significant decreases The decline in the local scale out-migration that oc- by several billion dollars in revenues and employ- elderly population puts curred here in the 1980s before the end of the de- ment% To a degree, this will Pittsburgh in a unique situ- was very age-specific and cade% The strength of local free up workers for indus- ation among regions in the did not affect as much the labor demand may mitigate tries that are currently ex- U%S% Overall, the national older age cohorts in the lo- the overall impact on the periencing labor shortages% elderly population is in- cal population% What the local economy, but the ser- This will only be true for creasing as the large baby region was left with was a vice and trade industries workers and skills that can boom population begins to much smaller baby-boom that most directly service easily be transferred to reach retirement age over age cohort than is typical across the country%

Pittsburgh Region Annual Percentage Change in Population by Age Group 1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

94 91-92 92-93 93- 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 65+ Under 65 PAGE 8 VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

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Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly PITTSBURGH ECONOMIC QUARTERLY Editor Christopher Briem Recent Publications By the Center for Social and Urban Research

The State of the Region Report: Economic, Demo- Pittsburgh Benchmarks: Black and White Quality of Life graphic, and Social Conditions in SWPA (9/99) in the City of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County (9/96) University Center for Social and Urban African American and Women Board Members of Eco- Quality of Life Databook: Black and White Living Con- Research nomic Development Organizations in the Pittsburgh ditions in the 50 Largest U

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