China: An Equity Strategist’s Diary Shadow banking monitor 24, financial system vulnerable to A-share losses Investment Strategy 27 July 2015 Equity Strategy Leverage, inflated collateral & unclear risk responsibility China We estimate that margin outstanding, only from the seven channels that we can estimate reasonably, easily exceeds Rmb3.7tr. Assuming an average 1x leverage, it means that at least David Cui >> Strategist Rmb7.5tr market positions are being carried on margin, equivalent to some 13% of A-share’s Merrill Lynch (Singapore) +65 6678 0411 market cap and 34% of its free float. Meanwhile, A-shares ex. banks are still trading at 36.6x
[email protected] 12M trailing PER. We believe that the government will struggle to hold up the market beyond Tracy Tian, CFA >> a few months, unless it is prepared to let go some of its other policy objectives including Strategist Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) RMB credibility (The A-share market may see another leg down within months, Jul 20). When +852 2161 7632 the market ultimately settles at a level that can be sustained on fundamental reasons, we
[email protected] expect that the balance sheet of most financial institutions (FIs) may get impaired and the Katherine Tai >> Strategist financial system may wobble, due to high contagion risk. Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 7524
[email protected] Leverage means relentless selling pressure The seven channels mentioned above are margin financing (MF), stock collateralized lending (SCL), umbrella trust (UT), stock benefits swap (SBS), structured mutual fund (SMF), P2P and offline private fund matching (Table 1).