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The Economics of Commodity Market Manipulation: a Survey
The Economics of Commodity Market Manipulation: A Survey Craig Pirrong Bauer College of Business University of Houston February 11, 2017 1 Introduction The subject of market manipulation has bedeviled commodity markets since the dawn of futures trading. Allegations of manipulation have been extremely commonplace, but just what constitutes manipulation, and how charges of manipulation can be proven, have been the subject of intense controversy. The remark of a waggish cotton trader in testimony before a Senate Com- mittee in this regard is revealing: “the word manipulation . initsuse isso broad as to include any operation of the cotton market that does not suit the gentleman who is speaking at the moment.” The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals echoed this sentiment, though less mordantly, in its decision in the case Cargill v. Hardin: “The methods and techniques of manipulation are limited only by the ingenuity of man.” Concerns about manipulation have driven the regulation of commodity markets: starting with the Grain Fu- tures Act of 1922, United States law has proscribed manipulation, including 1 specifically “corners” and “squeezes.” Exchanges have an affirmative duty to police manipulation, and in the United States, the Commodity Futures Trad- ing Commission and the Department of Justice can, and have exercised, the power to prosecute alleged manipulators. Nonetheless, manipulation does occur. In recent years, there have been allegations that manipulations have occurred in, inter alia, soybeans (1989), copper (1995), gold (2004-2014) nat- ural gas (2006), silver (1998, 2007-2014), refined petroleum products (2008), cocoa (2010), and cotton (2011). Manipulation is therefore both a very old problem, and a continuing one. -
Price Discovery in the Futures and Cash Market for Sugar
University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics March 2005 Staff Paper No. 469 Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic By Hector Zapata T. Randall Fortenbery Delroy Armstrong __________________________________ AGRICULTURAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS ____________________________ STAFF PAPER SERIES Copyright © 2005 Hector Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery and Delroy Armstrong. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic by Hector O Zapata Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana Phone: (225) 578-2766 Fax: (225) 578-2716 e-mail: [email protected] T. Randall Fortenbery Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin – Madison Madison, Wisconsin Phone: (608) 262-4908 Fax: (608) 262-4376 e-mail: [email protected] Delroy Armstrong Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana Phone: (225) 578-2757 Fax: (225) 578-2716 e-mail: [email protected] ___________ 1Hector Zapata and D. Armstrong are Professor and research assistant, respectively, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Dr. T Randall Fortenbery is the Renk Professor of Agribusiness, at the Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin. Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Dominican Republic Cash Market Abstract This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. -
World Map of the Futures Field 3.Mmap - 2008-12-18
Albania Andorra Armenia Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia (EU candidate) Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (EU candidate) Georgia Iceland Liechtenstein Moldova Monaco Montenegro Futurama Idébanken NTNU Norway Foresight University of Tromsö Non-EU Plausible Futures Club2015.ru Ru ssi a Moscow MP node San Marino Serbia European Futurists Conference Lucerne Futurizon Gottlieb Duttweiler Institut moderning Switzerland Prognos ROOS Office for Cultural Innovation Swissfuture - Swiss Society for Futures Studies Tüm Fütüristler Dernegi (MP node) Turkey (EU candidate) M-GEN Ukraine Vatican City State Institute for Future Studies Robert Jungk Bibliothek für Zukunftsfragen Austria RSA (MP node) Zukunftszentrum Tirol Institut Destrée (MP node) Kate Thomas & Kleyn Belgium Panopticon ForeTech Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Future Navigator Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Denmark Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi och Udvikling Association of Professional Futurists Estonian Institute for Futures Studies Estonia Club of Rome Finland Futures Academy (MP node) Enhance Project Finland Futures Research Centre Foresight International Finnish Society for Futures Studies Finland Future Institute International TEKES National Technology Agency International Council for Science (ICSU) VTT International Institute for Forecasters Association Nationale de la Recherche Technique BIPE Network of European Technocrats Centre D'etudes Prospectiveset D'informations Internationales Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy Centre d'analyse -
Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20 Volume Author/Editor: Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose, editors Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-38689-9 ISBN13: 978-0-226-38689-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/ito_09-1 Conference Date: June 26-27, 2009 Publication Date: February 2011 Chapter Title: The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets Chapter Authors: Kalok Chan, Yiuman Tse, Michael Williams Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11859 Chapter pages in book: (47 - 71) 2 The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates Evidence from the Futures Markets Kalok Chan, Yiuman Tse, and Michael Williams 2.1 Introduction We examine relationships among currency and commodity futures markets based on four commodity- exporting countries’ currency futures returns and a range of index- based commodity futures returns. These four commodity- linked currencies are the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and South African rand. We fi nd that commodity/currency relation- ships exist contemporaneously, but fail to exhibit Granger- causality in either direction. We attribute our results to the informational efficiency of futures markets. That is, information is incorporated into the commodity and cur- rency futures prices rapidly and simultaneously on a daily basis. There are a few studies on the relationship between currency and com- modity prices. A recent study by Chen, Rogoff, and Rossi (2008) using quar- terly data fi nds that currency exchange rates of commodity- exporting coun- tries have strong forecasting ability for the spot prices of the commodities they export. -
Cointegration Analysis of the World's Sugar Market
Economics COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD’S SUGAR MARKET: THE EXISTENCE OF THE LONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM Elena Kuzmenko1, Luboš Smutka2, Wadim Strielkowski3, Justas Štreimikis4, Dalia Štreimikienė5 1 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0002-2091-4630, [email protected]; 2 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0001-5385-1333, [email protected]; 3 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0001-6113-3841, [email protected]; 4 University of Economics and Human Science in Warsaw, Faculty of Management and Finances, Finance and Accounting Department, Poland, ORCID: 0000-0003-2619-3229, [email protected]; 5 Vilnius University, Kaunas Faculty, Institute of Social Sciences and Applied Informatics, Lithuania, ORCID: 0000-0002-3247-9912, [email protected] (corresponding author). Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of interconnection among major sugar markets and commodity/exchange stocks in different parts of the world using the Johansen cointegration approach and vector error correction model. Due to a high degree of sugar market fragmentation and corresponding diversity in price levels and its volatility in different regions, the results of our analysis sheds some light on the very fact of a ‘single’ global sugar market existence and can be important not just with regard to producers and buyers of sugar but for the international investors as well, both in the light of risk governance and maximizing profitability. Using the evaluation of the extent of connection among regional sugar markets, one can assess potential benefits available to investors through international diversification between the analyzed markets. -
Performance Prediction of Commodity Prices Using Foreign Exchange Futures Yisa Ajao, Ph.D
Performance Prediction of Commodity Prices Using Foreign Exchange Futures Yisa Ajao, Ph.D. Abstract Relevant Literature Procedures Conclusions In an experimental quantitative research design, data Origins of Dow Jones Financial Markets Historical data were downloaded from the websites of This study demonstrated that historical records from from the Futures Market for commodities and foreign Predictions the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Forex futures can be paired with matching records exchange futures covering 1986-2011 were obtained The theories developed by Fibonacci (1175-1250), and Wikiposit Historical Futures Data. from wheat (or any commodity) futures and obtain a and addressed. A General Regression Neural Network Dow (1851-1902), Elliot (1871-1948), and Gann prediction of market prices to within a 4.42% error was overlaid on this data to deduce a time-series (1878-1955) are essentially the backbones to the The data included daily commodity closing prices in margin. prediction model for wheat prices. Performance study of the movements of financial markets (Frost & the futures market for each trading day from 1985 prediction error was only 4.42%. Prechter, 2005; Schlanger, 2009) through 2011. From these data bank, specific data for The public, traders, investors, and analysts can wheat and US $1 Treasury Note were extracted for include this method as a new tool in the arsenal in the Forecasting Commodity Prices and Comments data mining purposes. ongoing search for a more reliable commodity futures Questions regarding forecast accuracy and financial predictions. markets eventually became a substantive topic of retrospective studies exemplified by Data Analysis This method can serve as confirmation of the results of Problem Hansen and Hodrick (1980), Turnovsky (1983), Fama other analytic and fundamental methods of obtaining (1984), Hodrick and Srivastava (1986), (Choe, 1990a), The Runs test was used to validate data randomness. -
Karl Polanyi's Critique
Author: Block • Filename: POMF-CH.4 LHP: THE POWER OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALISM RHP: TURNING THE TABLES Words: 6,291 / Chars: 40,895 • 1 • Printed: 06/18/14 8:39 PM Author: Block • Filename: POMF-CH.4 4 Turning the Tables Polanyi’s Critique of Free Market Utopianism In The Rhetoric of Reaction, Albert Hirschman (1991), identifies three distinct “rhetorics” that conservatives have used to discredit reform movements since the French Revolution. Chapter 6 of this volume is devoted to the “rhetoric of perversity”—the claim that a reform will have exactly the opposite of its intended effects and will hurt the intended beneficiaries. The second, “the rhetoric of jeopardy” is exemplified by Friedrich Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom (2007 [1944]); it is the claim that a reform will erode the freedoms we depend on. Hirschman’s third is the “rhetoric of futility”—the insistence that a reform is literally impossible because it goes against everything that we know is natural about human beings and social arrangements. This is the ploy that Malthus used in his Essay on the Principle of Population (1992 [1798]) to challenge the egalitarian ideas of William Godwin. Malthus professed to admire the beauty of Godwin’s vision, but he ultimately dismissed the vision as impossible. It was futile because Malthus declared it to be against the laws of nature—in other words, utopian. The rhetoric of futility is the main weapon that conservative intellectuals have wielded against socialists and communists for more than two centuries. They contend that an egalitarian social order would destroy any incentives for effort and creativity, which makes it utterly inconsistent with human nature. -
(Ifs) PART 2: DRIVING the DRIVERS and INDICES
FREDERICK S. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES EXPLORE UNDERSTAND SHAPE WORKING PAPER 2005.05.24.b FORECASTING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFs) PART 2: DRIVING THE DRIVERS AND INDICES Author: Barry B. Hughes May 2005 Note: If cited or quoted, please indicate working paper status. PARDEE.DU.EDU Forecasting Productivity and Growth in International Futures (IFs) Part 2: Driving the Drivers and Indices Table of Contents 1. The Objectives and Context ........................................................................................ 1 2. Social Capital: Governance Quality ........................................................................... 4 2.1 Existing Measures/Indices .................................................................................. 4 2.2 Forward Linkages: Does Governance Affect Growth? ..................................... 7 2.3 Backward Linkages (Drivers): How Forecast Governance Effectiveness? ..... 11 2.4 Specifics of Implementation in IFs: Backward Linkages ................................ 14 2.5 Comments on Other Aspects of Social Capital ................................................. 16 3. Physical Capital: Modern (or Information-Age) Infrastructure ............................... 17 3.1 Existing Infrastructure Indices: Is There a Quick and Easy Approach? .......... 18 3.2 Background: Conceptual, Data and Measurement Issues ................................ 19 3.3 Infrastructure in IFs .......................................................................................... -
Training Manual Frederick S. Pardee Center for Ifs Josef Korbel School of International Studies Univ
International Futures (IFs) Training Manual Frederick S. Pardee Center for IFs Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver www.ifs.du.edu | www.ifsforums.du.edu Contact: [email protected] This manual was written by the following: Barry B Hughes Mohammod T Irfan Eli Margolese -Malin Jonathan D Moyer Carey Neill José Sol órzano Table of Contents 1 General Overview ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Introduction to IFs ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 What IFs Can Do ............................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 The Structure of IFs ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 IFs Philosophy ................................................................................................................................ 9 2.4 IFs Vocabulary ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.5 Geographic Representation in IFs ............................................................................................... 11 2.6 Key Features of IFs ...................................................................................................................... 12 3 Introduction to Forecasting -
Hydro-Social Permutations of Water Commodification in Blantyre City, Malawi
Hydro-Social Permutations of Water Commodification in Blantyre City, Malawi A thesis submitted to the University of Manchester for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Humanities 2014 Isaac M.K. Tchuwa School of Environment Education and Development Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ 2 List of Figures ................................................................................................................. 6 List of Tables ................................................................................................................... 7 List of Graphs ................................................................................................................. 7 List of Photos .................................................................................................................. 8 List of Maps .................................................................................................................... 9 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 10 Declaration .................................................................................................................... 11 Copyright Statement .................................................................................................... 12 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... -
A Study of the Commodification of Health Services in Ireland
Critical Social Thinking: Policy and Practice, Vol. 1, 2009 Dept. of Applied Social Studies, University College Cork , Ireland. ‘Your Wealth is your Health’: A Study of the Commodification of Health Services in Ireland Margaret Lysaght, M. Soc. Sc. 1 Abstract The commodification of health care is gathering in momentum in Ireland. Arguably, this is transforming the status of health as an inherent right for all people, to a market based commodity that is subject to cost and profiteering. This article conceptualises health as a commodity examining its implications for the provision of quality hospital services for both public and private patients. Health inequalities are prevalent in contemporary Ireland. The role of health commodification in creating these health inequalities is examined through a critical review of the literature and an original qualitative study. The research highlighted issues surrounding the access and the treatment of public and private patients in hospitals, as an illustrative example of how commodification is impacting on health service provision in Ireland. The research examined the primary issues relating to health as a right and a commodity by adopting an interpretivist perspective; using a sample of front line hospital workers. It explored whether health as a commodity is creating further social divide by promoting differential treatment based on a patient’s ability to pay. The role of policy makers has 1 Acknowledgements Many thanks to the people who participated in the primary research interviews. Their contributions to the research were invaluable, insightful and inspirational. Thanks to my supervisor, Mairéad Considine, for her guidance and to my partner Darragh Enright, for his encouragement and support. -
Commodity Futures Markets
Task Force on Commodity Futures Markets Final Report TECHNICAL COMMITTEE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION OF SECURITIES COMMISSIONS MARCH 2009 CONTENTS Chapter Page Executive Summary 3 Background 4 Discussion 6 Volatility and the role of increased participation by financial participants in 6 the Futures Markets Greater transparency of fundamental commodity market information is 11 needed Transparency and Market Surveillance 14 Enforcement Challenges Involving Commodity Futures Markets 18 Enhancing Global Co-Operation 20 Appendix 22 2 Executive Summary The IOSCO Task Force on Commodity Futures Markets (Task Force) was formed following the concerns expressed by the G-8 Finance Ministers regarding the price rises and volatility in agricultural and energy in 2008. The Task Force has made the following conclusions and practical recommendations: Reports by international organizations, central banks and regulators in response to the above concerns that were reviewed by the Task Force suggest that economic fundamentals, rather than speculative activity, are a plausible explanation for recent price changes in commodities. However, given the complexity and often opacity of factors that drive price discovery in futures markets, and the critical importance of these issues to world economies, continued monitoring is appropriate to improve understanding of futures market price formation and the interaction between regulated futures markets and related commodity markets1; The Task Force has identified factors that potentially inhibit the ability of commodity futures market regulators (futures market regulators)2 to access relevant information concerning the related commodity markets, over which futures market regulators generally do not have authority, that may be needed to understand fully price formation in a particular futures market contract or to detect manipulative or other abusive trading by market participants holding large positions in those commodity contracts.