ETHIOPIA Food Security Update November 2009 • About 6.2 million people, particularly in the eastern Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, marginal cropping areas, the pastoral areas of Somali November 2009 region,, northern pastoral region of Afar, pastoral and agro pastoral area of Oromiya, SNNPR and most of Gambella face moderate to high levels of food insecurity and continue to require emergency food aid, although household food availability has improved starting in November 2009 with the start of the Meher harvest. • The Meher harvest is anticipated to be below‐normal as a result of June‐September rains which started late, performed erratically, and ended early in some areas. The poor rains have also affected the reproduction and productivity of livestock by contributing to shortages of pasture and water, mainly in the water deficient parts of Afar region. • Following the start of the Meher harvest, cereal prices are generally declining following the normal seasonal trend. However, they are still much higher than the five‐ year average and generally unaffordable for the rural and urban poor in both cropping and pastoral areas. Source: FEWS NET and WFP Ethiopia For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurity Scale Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Food security overview An estimated 6.2 million people continue to need food aid as a result of successive poor rainy seasons. Sustained improvements in food security are unlikely in most parts of the country due to the poor June to September (Kiremt) rains FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +251 11 662 02 17/18 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Update November 2009 which delayed harvests and led to poor prospects for 2009 Meher production. The results of the government led mid‐ season assessment, carried out between the 29th of September and 11th of October and covering cropping areas and the pastoral regions of Afar and northern zones of Somali region, indicate that 4.7 million people (6 month beneficiary equivalent) will require food assistance between January and June 2010. The bulk of this need will fall in the second quarter of 2010. These needs will be further revised following the second government needs assessment that is currently underway. Table 1. Review of October Outlook assumptions and subsequent development Main expected impacts on food Variables and Assumptions Actual conditions and impacts observed to date security Extended kiremt rains (cessation Following the late onset of the rains, The rains have ceased earlier than normal in most of extended beyond normal time) the crops that were planted late the eastern half of the country followed by a long dry leading to good meher harvest in would lead to normal meher harvest spell in September. In SNNPR the kiremt rains the chronically food insecure which will then lead to increase continued raining beyond the normal cessation time. eastern and southern parts of the availability of food for areas that Most parts of the country received unseasonable rains country that produce both during produce both belg and meher crops in October. Though beneficial for pasture and water the belg and meher seasons and improvement, the unseasonable rains had a mixed those that produce only during impact on crop production. It will improve moisture the meher season. availability for late planted short‐ cycle crops but threaten the ready to harvest crops such as teff. Improved availability of food aid Improvement in the availability and Since the beginning of the year, six rounds of food aid (general ration and access of food at the household level have been distributed in Oromia, Afar and Tigray while supplementary food) ongoing in SNNPR, Amhara and Benshangul. With the exception of Somali region and JEOP operational woredas, less food aid than planned has been distributed due to resource limitations. Resources for targeted supplementary food (TFS) are critically in short supply as compared to needs in many parts of the country including Somali region. The performance of the deyr Improved pasture and water The rains performed poorly this month after a good rains in the remainder of the availability and livestock physical start in October. Though there have been some season is expected to be normal condition. improvements in livestock body conditions as a result and above normal of improved water and pasture availability, mainly camels and shoats, milk production is very poor due to previous poor rainfall seasons. Staple prices remain stable Access to food improved Generally cereal prices have shown a declining trend following the seasonal pattern at this time of the years. However, still increasing in regions such as Afar. Food security in the western parts of the country is stable with the exception of Gambella Region, where the poor performance of the 2009 Belg and Kiremt rains have left many of the woredas highly food insecure. The poor rains will also negatively affect fish availability and flood recession agriculture. Food aid distribution is underway, but it is based on needs calculated earlier in the year, when conditions were better, as the revised figures from the mid‐Meher season assessment are not yet released. Livestock conditions are better however due to improved water and pasture availability. High levels of food insecurity persist in the eastern marginal cropping areas. These areas include southern and southeastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, Wag Hamra, North Shewa, and East and West Hararghe. Field reports indicate that the Kiremt rains started late (one to three weeks on average), ceased earlier than normal, and were insufficient and very irregular for agricultural activities, particularly in the lowland areas of the eastern escarpment bordering Afar region and Tsirare catchments. In Tigray region very poor production is reported in Raya Azebo, Alamata, Hitalo Wajerat, Enderta, Atsebe Wonberta, Saesie Tsaeda Emba, and Tanqua Abergele woredas. In Amhara region, below average harvests are reported in Abergele, Sahala and Ziqualla of Wag Hamra, Kobbo, lowlands of Habru and Gubalafto woredas, Bati woreda of Oromia zone and lowlands of Kewet, Ankober, Minjar, Tarmaber and Bereket of North Shewa zone. The food security situation in these areas has significantly deteriorated due to the absence of a green harvest, a reduced Meher harvest, and declining income and food sources from livestock and agricultural labor. Food aid deliveries have not been adequate; the last distributions to these areas were in August. An increase in cases of acute malnutrition and critical shortages of drinking Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Update November 2009 water has been reported in a number of woredas including Ahefrom, Laelay Adiabo and Hintalo Wajerat. Livestock body conditions are reportedly poor due to shortage of water and pasture. In Alamata for instance, more than 1,600 head of cattle from 125 households have migrated to the highlands of Ofla and Lasta since September 2009. Reduced livestock holdings are hence highly likely as a result of sale and death which will have a significant impact on future livelihood. An unusual influx of people from Wag Hamra, North and South Wollo, southern and south eastern Tigray to Humera and Metema of Western Tigray and Amhara for in search of labor. Agricultural labor opportunities are high at this time of year in the northwest due sesame, sorghum and cotton harvests on the commercial farms. Some households reported to have searched for labor in neighboring Sudan. Although the demand for labor is usually high in these areas, the wage rate has declined due to increased labor supply and food and accommodations costs are high. Similarly, the vulnerable populations in the lowlands of West Shewa, and East and West Haraghe zones of Oromia region continue to face high levels of food insecurity. Food aid distributions in West Shewa, typically a surplus producing area, began in March 2008 in the 13 out of the 18 woredas. While some of these areas expect some green harvest during November from the long‐cycle maize planted in June, a reduced harvest is expected this year in many woredas. Harvests of short‐cycle crops will be late and are anticipated to be very poor. In West Shewa, supplementary food distribution is being carried out for moderately malnourished under 5 children and pregnant and lactating mothers in the 13 affected woredas; 11 are covered by Save the Children US, whose program continues for the coming five months. The woredas with severe food security problems in West Shewa are Adaaberga, Ilfeta, Abuna Gindeberet, Gindeberet, Jeldu, Meta Robi, Midakegn and parts of Ambo Zuria and Tokye Kutaye. Failure of the current Meher crops, compounded by consecutive droughts, has created a critical situation in East and West Hararghe. The physical condition of livestock is improving slightly as a result of improved availability of pasture and browse following unseasonable rains in October and due to increased fodder availability (crop residue from the failed maize and sorghum crops). However, there has been early migration of animals from severely affected woredas to other areas where pasture and water are relatively more available and according to field reports, household asset bases are highly eroded due to the poor rains in 2009. The worst affected woredas in East Hararghe include Fedis, Midhega Tolla, Babile, Chinaksen, Gursum, Kurfachele, Meyu Muluke, Golo Oda, Jarso, Meta, Goro Gutu, Kumbi; where as in West Hararghe, Meiso, Chiro, Guba Koricha, Doba, Daro Lebu and Burka Dimtu are equally affected.