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Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099 27 May 2015 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Department Stores (Retail (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099 / 3099 JP) Rating UNDERPERFORM* Price (26 May 15, ¥) 2,074 INCREASE TARGET PRICE Target price (¥) (from 960) 1,400¹ Chg to TP (%) -32.5 Ginza duty-free shop a two-edged sword Market cap. (¥ bn) 817.47 (US$ 6.64) Enterprise value (¥ bn) 925.45 ■ Valuations still demanding: We raise our forecasts for Isetan Mitsukoshi to Number of shares (mn) 394.15 factor in solid duty-free sales at urban stores. (We also extend our forecasts to Free float (%) 80.0 FY3/18.) However, we doubt earnings will rise enough to make valuations more 52-week price range 2,280 - 1,220 attractive, particularly as we expect higher costs in FY3/16 in tandem with higher *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. base salaries for former Mitsukoshi employees and increased spending on new ¹Target price is for 12 months. formats (smaller stores and online sales). We raise our target price from ¥960 to ¥1,400 (potential return −32.5%) after revising our capital cost assumption and Research Analysts other inputs. We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating, as valuations lack Taketo Yamate appeal relative to peers’. 81 3 4550 9963 [email protected] ■ Ginza duty-free shop a two-edged sword: A duty-free shop set to open this autumn within Mitsukoshi’s Ginza store (8F; floor space: 3,300m2) has been in the spotlight, but the shop will be operated as a JV between the company (27.5% stake), Japan Airport Terminal, and others. Upside for the Ginza store will be limited to rent, which will comprise a fixed fee and a percentage of sales (our estimate: 10–15% of duty free sales). Factoring in risk of lower sales accompanying the loss of sales floor space used for the shop (about 9%), the company’s strategy of using Ginza floor space for a duty-free shop may lag investors’ expectations. ■ Catalysts/risks: Rivals could open similar duty-free shops in the Ginza area, meaning risk of a decline for the shares if risk of greater competition becomes a focus. Upside risks include stronger-than-anticipated duty-free sales, more upbeat business conditions, and better shareholder returns could result in a higher share price in contrast to our UNDERPERFORM rating. ■ Valuation: Our ¥1,400 TP is an FY3/17E P/B of 0.9x. Our previous TP was an FY3/16E P/B of 0.7x. Our multiple reflects the correlation between our outlooks for longer-term ROE of 4.0% (previously 3.5%) and cost of equity of 4.4% (5.0%). Our cost of equity figure assumes an equity risk premium of 5.75% (6.2%), a risk free rate of 0.4% (0.66%), and a beta of 0.7 (unchanged). Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/15A 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Sales (¥ bn) 1,272.1 1,300.0 1,318.0 1,322.0 4000 140 Operating profit (¥ bn) 33.1 35.0 37.5 37.0 3000 120 2000 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 34.6 36.0 39.0 38.2 1000 100 0 80 Net income (¥ bn) 29.9 23.6 24.5 23.5 EPS (¥) 75.7 59.9 62.2 59.6 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. 28.6 25.7 IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 63.8 69.6 73.9 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 41.7 -20.9 3.8 -4.1 TOPIX which closed at 1659.57 on 26/05/15 P/E (x) 26.2 34.6 33.4 34.8 On 26/05/15 the spot exchange rate was ¥123.06/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 0.55 0.53 0.58 0.58 EV/EBITDA(x) 15.3 15.5 14.6 14.6 Performance over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 Absolute (%) 0.7 14.3 59.4 ROE(%) 5.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 Relative (%) -1.8 5.3 20.6 Net debt/equity (%) 17.8 18.6 16.0 14.6 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 27 May 2015 Duty-free shop in Ginza could be a dual-edged sword Tax-free sales at Mitsukoshi’s Ginza store reached ¥9.3bn in FY3/15, equivalent to 12.5% of the Ginza store’s sales. The company plans to use the entire eighth floor for a duty-free shop set to open this autumn in hopes of drawing more visitors from abroad. The shop will occupy about 3,300m2, or roughly 9% of the store’s total sales floor space (36,000m2). We are somewhat skeptical as to whether the duty-free shop’s impact on earnings will meet investors’ expectations. This is because the duty-free shop will be operated as a JV in concert with Japan Air Terminal and other partners. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings will have a 27.5% stake in the venture, but the framework means much of the profit generated by the shop will flow to other parties. Upside for the Ginza store will be limited to rental income from the duty-free shop. This will comprise a fixed portion and a portion linked to sales. Details have not been released, but we expect the portion linked to sales to be equivalent to 10–15% of the shop’s sales, i.e., lower than the typical gross margin on merchandise sales (20–27%). We acknowledge the substantial potential of duty-free shops with regard to sales, but the potential for adverse impacts on the Ginza store’s sales should not be overlooked. The Ginza store is giving up about 9% of its own sales floor space for the venture, and the new shop will be competing with the store’s own tax-free sales (sales not subject to the consumption tax). We believe the company’s strategy of establishing a duty-free shop as a tenant within the Ginza store has considerable potential with respect to increased customer traffic and overall sales (including the duty-free shop’s sales). That said, we believe the overall upside for earnings (gross profit plus rental income) will be limited. Figure 1 covers our outlooks for sales and gross profit at the Ginza store. We expect gross sales (including sales at the duty-free shop) of ¥95bn in FY3/18. While this would be an improvement of ¥20.6bn over FY3/15 results, we believe downside from mix erosion (because of increased rental income from the duty-free shop) would mean gross profit improves by only ¥2.0bn, and most of this would be from increased rental income from the duty-free shop. Figure 1: Earnings estimates for Ginza store (Ybn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 (e) 2016 (e) 2017 (e) Total retail sales (includes DFS) 61.3 69.2 74.4 82.0 92.5 95.0 Retail sales (ex. DFS) 61.3 69.2 74.4 74.5 74.5 75.0 Non tax free sales 59.8 65.7 65.1 62.5 60.5 59.5 Tax free sales 1.4 3.5 9.3 12.0 14.0 15.5 Custom duty free sales at DFS shop - - - 7.5 18.0 20.0 Gross profit (includes rent fee from DFS shop) 16.4 18.4 19.4 20.0 21.1 21.4 Gross margin 26.8% 26.6% 26.1% 24.4% 22.8% 22.5% Gross profti (excludes rent fee from DFS shop) 16.4 18.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.4 Gross profit (excludes tax free) 16.2 17.7 17.6 16.9 16.3 16.1 Gross profit (Tax Free) 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 Rent fee from DFS shop - - - 0.8 1.8 2.0 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099 / 3099 JP) 2 27 May 2015 Figure 2: Earnings forecasts and valuation As of May-26 Sales Operating profit Recurring profit Net profit EPS DPS P/E ¥bn YoY (%) ¥bn YoY (%) ¥bn YoY (%) ¥bn YoY (%) ¥ YoY (%) ¥ (x) Consolidated 14/3 Actual 1,321.5 6.9 34.6 30.1 38.4 12.3 21.2 -16.3 53.5 -16.4 11.0 23.8 15/3 Actual 1,272.1 -3.7 33.1 -4.5 34.6 -10.1 29.9 41.2 75.7 41.7 11.0 26.2 16/3 CS E (New) 1,300.0 2.2 35.0 5.8 36.0 4.2 23.6 -21.0 59.9 -20.9 11.0 34.6 CS E (prev) 1,284.0 0.9 33.0 -0.3 32.3 -6.6 18.4 -38.5 46.6 -38.5 11.0 44.5 CoE 1,300.0 2.2 35.0 5.8 35.0 1.3 25.0 -16.3 63.4 -16.3 11.0 32.7 IBES E 1,298.7 2.1 36.6 10.6 37.8 9.2 24.7 -17.2 63.8 -15.7 11.8 32.5 17/3 CS E (New) 1,318.0 1.4 37.5 7.1 39.0 8.3 24.5 3.8 62.2 3.8 12.0 33.4 CS E (prev) 1,284.4 0.0 35.0 6.2 34.0 5.4 19.5 6.2 49.4 6.2 11.0 41.9 IBES E 1,328.2 2.3 40.9 11.8 42.0 11.3 27.7 12.1 69.6 9.1 12.7 29.8 18/3 CS E (New) 1,322.0 0.3 37.0 -1.3 38.2 -2.1 23.5 -4.1 59.6 -4.1 12.0 34.8 IBES E 1,336.8 0.7 42.9 5.0 45.2 7.7 30.6 10.2 73.9 6.1 14.0 28.1 Source: Company data, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Valuations 40.0 1.8 35.0 EV/EBITDA (lhs) 1.6 PBR (rhs) 1.4 30.0 1.2 25.0 1.0 20.0 0.8 15.0 0.6 10.0 0.4 5.0 0.2 0.0 - Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Parent earnings forecast assumptions for Isetan Mitsukoshi FY15 (Isetan Mitsukoshi, parent, Ybn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 (e) FY16 (e) FY17 (e) (Co.e) Sales - - 646.6 637.8 628.0 675.3 656.4 680.0 688.0 688.0 679.7 YoY - - - -1.4% -1.5% 7.5% -2.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.0% 3.6% Shinjuku 246.0 223.6 219.5 235.0 236.8 265.5 258.5 274.7 281.1 282.7 271.1 Tachikawa 38.9 36.0 35.8 37.7 38.8 39.6 38.5 39.5 39.6 39.3 39.9 Kichijoji 17.4 20.1 - - - - - - - - - Matsudo 26.4 23.5 22.0 22.1 21.4 21.3 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.8 20.4 Urawa 49.3 43.7 42.0 43.4 43.0 44.1 42.3 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.4 Sagamihara 30.9 27.5 26.2 26.5 25.7 25.5 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.1 25.7 Fuchu 23.6 20.9 20.3 20.7 20.5 20.9 19.6 19.8 19.6 19.2 20.1 Nihonbashi 253.1 215.7 205.6 165.2 163.2 173.6 165.6 171.0 173.2 172.9 172.1 Ginza 48.9 41.1 44.7 57.5 61.3 69.2 74.4 74.5 74.5 75.0 74.8 Chiba 26.5 23.1 19.0 18.4 17.3 15.5 13.6 13.3 13.2 12.8
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