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Covid-19 in the Gulf Special Coverage Missed Opportunities: The Trump Administration, Iran, and the Coronavirus Pandemic Juan Cole Gulf Insights Series Nº 31 – June 2020 Gulf Insights Nº 31 – June 2020 Missed Opportunities: The Trump Administration, Iran, and the Coronavirus Pandemic Juan Cole Introduction year later, the administration revoked all the exemptions that the Treasury On the surface, the global Department’s Office of Foreign Asset coronavirus pandemic of 2020 might Control (OFAC) had granted for have offered the United States and Iran secondary sanctions. Thereafter, any an opportunity to stand down from their country or firm that so much as bought virtual war footing. In the lead-up to the Iranian petroleum opened itself to outbreak, Iran had shot down a US enormous US fines unless it received a drone over the Gulf in June 2019, and specific and time-limited waiver. Few of on January 3, President Donald J. these have been extended. The end of Trump had ordered a drone strike at these exemptions transformed the US Baghdad International Airport on sanctions regime from an embargo by Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and one country on another into a global his entourage. In response, Iran fired blockade on Iranian trade and rockets at Iraqi bases where US troops investment. In the year after the were stationed, and Iraqi Shiite militias revocation of secondary exemptions, mounted attacks that killed two US Iran’s currency lost half of its value military personnel and wounded several against the dollar. others. Some of the severe tensions The medical implications of the derived from the Trump administration’s US financial and trade blockade thoroughgoing financial and trade became starker during the past year. restrictions on Iran. For its part, On September 30, 2019, the Washington was determined to roll back administration designated Iran’s central Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria and bank as a terrorist organization, in Lebanon and to protect its key allies in theory making it impossible even for the region, including Israel, Saudi humanitarian organizations to transfer Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. money to Iran without the risk of How did these two adversaries deploy sanctions. Washington, having the pandemic in the service of their received many protests about this geopolitical goals? action from the international community, establish a humanitarian The “maximum pressure campaign” channel via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran in late October 2019, and a trial Well before the Covid-19 crisis, run was conducted. It still has not the Trump administration’s unilateral resulted in any significant sanctions “maximum pressure campaign” had had relief with regard to medical supplies. In an impact on Iranians ability to import fall, 2019, Human Rights Watch medicines and medical equipment. On reported that although the US sanctions May 8, 2018, President Trump regime supposedly had built in medical breached the Joint Comprehensive exemptions, “in practice, these Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by the sanctions have largely deterred Obama administration in 2015. About a international banks and firms from 2 Gulf Insights Nº 31 – June 2020 participating in commercial or financial March 17, “Unlawful US sanctions transactions with Iran, including for drained Iran’s economic resources, exempted humanitarian transactions, impairing ability to fight Covid-19. They due to the fear of triggering US literally kill innocents.” He said the secondary sanctions on themselves.” coronavirus had revealed the tyrannical and oppressive character of US Iran faces Covid-19 sanctions. The Trump administration’s message to the ayatollahs, however, For their part, the Iranian was that the coronavirus outbreak authorities were extremely slow to react would not save Iran from US sanctions. to the threat of the pandemic, which Despite Washington’s denial that it was should have been clear by the end of sanctioning medical aid, companies January, when the World Health and humanitarian organizations Organization issued a risk assessment continued to face the threat of a of very high for China, and high at the $300,000 fine if they failed to meet global level, noting cases in 18 OFAC specifications and difficulties in countries outside China. Iran’s securing appropriate waivers and in government nevertheless encouraged finding a bank willing to transfer funds crowds to come out for the February 11 to Iran. commemoration of 41 years of the In mid-March, President Trump Islamic Republic, and then held national announced that he had written parliamentary elections on February 21 countries like North Korea and Iran in hopes of ensconcing a majority of instead offering aid in dealing with the hardliners in that body. In mid-February pandemic. On March 22, Iran’s Leader, the authorities were still denying there Ali Khamenei, vehemently rejected the were any cases. Even after cases were offer, questioning its sincerity. He said announced, and an MP alleged that for all he knew American supposed there were 50 deaths in the holy city of medical supplies could be stealth Qom, Deputy Health Minister Iraj means of actually spreading the Harirchi went on television to insist that coronavirus in Iran, and he endorsed mitigation measures were unneeded. the false conspiracy theory that the US even while clearly suffering from the concocted the virus in its own weapons virus himself. A number of government labs in order to target Iran with it. officials and members of parliament On March 29, the United Nations died of the infection this spring. Not leadership called for an easing of until mid-March did the theocratic sectoral sanctions during the pandemic government finally close religious in the interests of allowing the shrines, thought in cities like Qom to sanctioned states more effectively to have been vectors of disease spread. stem outbreaks. In response, on March Iran became the worst-hit country in the 31, 34 members of the U.S. House of Middle East and an epicenter for the Representatives and the Senate sent a spread of the virus elsewhere in the letter to the Trump administration urging region. the suspension of sanctions during the With regard to the international global health emergency and that the response to its plight, what Tehran administration should “find a way to really wanted was sanctions relief. deliver aid directly to the Iranian people Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted on to support the Iranian people’s fight 3 Gulf Insights Nº 31 – June 2020 against Coronavirus.” There was no billion in trade with China, which sign, however, that the Trump accounted for 20 percent of all Iranian administration would yield to such exports and 25 percent of its imports. entreaties, and any easing was By late March, China was shipping 40 opposed by US allies such as Israel, tons of medical aid to Iran daily, entirely Saudi Arabia and the UAE. unconcerned about US sanctions. In In the meantime, the cratering of April, China emphasized to Iran that the oil prices presented Iran with further two countries were in the fight against challenges in affording to import the pandemic together. needed medical equipment and supplies. The Trump administration Conclusion blockade, along with the plummeting of global oil demand, had by spring of Despite calls from the United 2020 reduced Iranian oil sales to as little Nations and the US Congress for the as 70,000 barrels per day, according to easing of the Trump administration’s Reuters. Even if that estimate might be “maximum pressure” campaign against low, the total is certainly a fraction of the Iran’s economy during the pandemic 2.5 million barrels a day that Iran was crisis, to ensure that country had the selling before May, 2018, when Trump resources to tamp down its severe breached the JCPOA. The past decade outbreak, the White House proved has seen a significant reduction in unmovable on this issue. Likewise, petroleum as a proportion of although some observers had hoped government revenue. In the 2019-20 that Iran might use the global public fiscal year it was expected to be only 30 health emergency as a pretext to reach percent, down from 60 percent a out to Washington and initiate a new decade earlier. Iran’s government may round of negotiations, instead Tehran’s have hoped that reduced dependence hard liners mounted a propaganda on petroleum would make Iranian non- campaign against the United States oil exports more competitive, since it alleging that the novel coronavirus was weakens the currency. The fall in world a Pentagon bioweapon. The pandemic, demand in 2020, however, would hurt far from being used by both sides to other exports as well. The bad reduce tensions and find a new way economy in Iran had implications for the forward, was instead a basis for country’s ability to purchase ventilators Washington and Tehran to continue in and personal protection equipment for their sometimes violent contest for its medics, and to establish new influence in the Middle East and in their intensive care units. attempts to score propaganda points The continuation of US sanctions with third parties in the world during the coronavirus pandemic, Ali community. This intransigence was Dadpay argues, further strengthened reinforced by allies of the two nations, Iran’s ties with China. Because Iran’s with easing sanctions on Iran being trade with Europe is impeded by the opposed by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the threat of US Treasury Department third- Emirates, and with China seeing an party sanctions on European banks and opportunity to incorporate Iran more businesses that deal with Iran, Iran firmly into its sphere of influence. since 2018 has turned increasingly to China. In 2019, Iran did nearly $20 4 Gulf Insights Nº 31 – June 2020 About the author Juan Cole is the Richard P.
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