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Revolutions Depend on People, Not on Social Media, and the Internet Both

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Revolutions Depend on People, Not on Social Media, and the Internet Both By Evgeny Morozov he only place where the Revolutions depend on people, not West is still unabashedly eager to promote democ- racy is in cyberspace. En- on social media, and the Internet thusiastic belief in the lib- e r a t i n g p o w e r o f technology, accompanied both promotes democracy and by the ir resistible urge to Tenlist Silicon Valley start-ups in the thwarts it, says a foreign-policy global fight for freedom, is of grow- ing appeal to many policy makers. In fact, many of them are as upbeat scholar. Cyber-utopians be warned: about the revolutionary potential of the Internet as their colleagues in the Authoritarian regimes are adapting corporate sector were in the 1990s. We shouldn’t give the Internet too much credit, however, and we to the Internet age. should probably give it credit for 18 THE FUTURIST July-August 2011 some of the negative things that are ing the power of the federal govern- racy in the Middle East may succeed. happening. We shouldn’t be biased ment. Authoritarian regimes in Cen- But it will depend on how they work and just look at the brighter side. We tral Asia, for example, have been with the existing challenges. should be more critical in thinking actively promoting a host of e-gov- The revolts were driven by people about its impacts. ernment initiatives. who had economic grievances and The idea that the Internet favors Normally a regime that fights its were politically oppressed. They the oppressed rather than the op- own corruption has more legitimacy turned to the Internet to publicize pressor is marred by what I call with its own people. From that per- their grievances and their resistance. cyber-utopianism: a naïve belief in spective, I wouldn’t go so far as to The fact that new media and blogs the emancipatory nature of online say that the Internet is making the were present probably set a different communication that rests on a stub- government more accountable, but I tempo to the revolts. If the Internet born refusal to acknowledge its would say that it is making local of- were not around, the regime might downside. ficials more responsible. be tempted to crack down in a much Cyber-utopians ambitiously set The government may be eliminat- more brutal way. The revolts them- out to build a new and improved ing corruption in the provinces, selves would be taking a different United Nations, only to end up with making the people happier, but that shape, and they may have happened a digital Cirque du Soleil. Failing to doesn’t mean that they’re eliminat- three to six months later. anticipate how authoritarian govern- ing corruption at the top. So the dis- It’s hypothetical to say how to- ments would respond to the Inter- tribution of corruption might be day’s democratic revolutions would net, cyber-utopians did not predict changing. But I do think government have happened without the Internet, how useful the Internet would prove might use the Internet to solicit more but revolutions throughout history for propaganda purposes, how mas- citizen input. That won’t undermine are driven by cultural factors. The terfully dictators would use it for the government. It will bolster its le- events probably would have hap- surveillance, and how sophisticated gitimacy. pened differently and probably modern forms of Internet censorship It’s not paradoxical. The fact that would have turned out differently. would become. the government is soliciting their We have to entertain the possibility Fidel Castro’s Twitter page has opinions does not mean that the that these events could have been been around for a few years. But government is listening to them. It much more violent and taken much very few people in Cuba own com- wants to give the people the impres- more time if they hadn’t had the puters, because the Cuban govern- sion that it is listening to them. In publicity that they had thanks to the ment restricted the sale of computers some sense, it creates a semblance of Internet. to its population, so most of them democratic institutions. It’s all about But ultimately, a regime’s response just don’t have the equipment to creating a veneer of legitimacy. to a revolt depends on the regime, tweet. They don’t have Internet not on the Internet. Just because cafés. They do have a small blogging THE Internet’s RolE In people can tweet and blog doesn’t culture, a few bloggers who have to MIddlE EAstern REvolutions stop the Libyan government from in- be very careful. The government stituting a violent crackdown. modified the restrictions on comput- Digital activists in the Middle East In all, it’s hard to generalize based ers only a short while ago, so I can boast quite a few accomplish- on the future of the Internet. We wouldn’t expect Facebook or Twitter ments, particularly when it comes to don’t have a one-size-fits-all ap- to matter much in Cuba in the next documenting police brutality, but I proach to every country. We adapt five to ten years. don’t think the Internet will play our policies for each country. That’s Take a closer look at the blogo- much of a role in Middle Eastern how foreign policy works. But with spheres in almost any authoritarian democratic revolutions compared the Internet, we have a tendency to regime, and you are likely to dis- with other factors. The things to generalize that this must be how it cover that they are teeming with na- watch for are how the new leaders works everywhere, and that isn’t the tionalism and xenophobia. Things shape the new constitutions and case. don’t look particularly bright for the how they deal with the elements of kind of flawless democratization the previous regimes. All those How Russia HAndlEs the that some expect from the Internet’s things are far more important than Internet and ActivIsM arrival. what happens online. I wouldn’t bet Likewise, bloggers uncovering that the Internet will be a great help. While civic activism—raising and publicizing corruption in local As for the extent to which these money for sick children and cam- governments could be—and are— new regimes become democracies— paigning to curb police corruption— easily coopted by higher-ranking it’s a wild guess for anyone, me in- is highly visible on the Russian In- politicians and made part of the anti- cluded. They have a chance, but out- ternet, it’s still entertainment and corruption campaign. The overall comes will depend upon many social media that dominate. In this impact on the strength of the regime factors, including internal policies respect, Russia hardly differs from in this case is hard to determine; the and external conflicts. I don’t buy the United States or countries in bloggers may be diminishing the into the cultural notion of Arabs not western Europe. The most popular power of local authorities but boost- being ready for democracy. Democ- Internet searches on Russian search THE FUTURIST July-August 2011 19 engines are not for “What is Democ- racy?” or “how to protect human rights,” but for “What is love?” and “how to lose weight.” The Kremlin supports, directly or indirectly, a host of sites about poli- tics, which are usually quick to de- nounce the opposition and welcome every government initiative, but in- creasingly branches out into apoliti- cal entertainment. From the govern- ment’s perspective, it’s far better to The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of tainment through video-sharing keep young Russians away from Internet Freedom by Evgeny Morozov. sites to distract viewers from so- politics altogether, having them con- PublicAffairs. 2011. 408 pages. $27.95. cial and political issues. sume funny videos on Russia’s own n 2009, reports that dissidents Morozov debunks many version of YouTube, RuTube (owned in Iran were using Twitter widely held assumptions about by Gazprom, the country’s state- prompted many Western how politically repressive states owned energy behemoth), or on commentators to proclaim and their opposition both work. Russia.ru, where they might be ex- I that social media was fomenting He follows with advice for dem- posed to a rare ideological message a democratic Iranian revolu- ocratic lawmakers who want to as well. tion—only to be disap- help the dissidents. Many Russians are happy to com- pointed when the “revo- Pro-democracy ply, not least because of the high lution” fizzled and died. lawmakers must quality of such online distractions. New America Founda- engage with the The Russian authorities may be on to tion fellow Evgeny Mo- Internet, he says, something here: The most effective rozov attributes the but they must ob- system of Internet control is not the commentators’ mis- serve how it im- one that has the most sophisticated placed hopes to cyber - p a c t s d i f f e r e n t and draconian censorship, but the utopianism, a wide- countries in different one that has no need for censorship s p re a d b u t n a ï v e w a y s a n d sh a p e whatsoever. expectation that the their policies accord- I don’t think there is anything Internet will em- ingly: What works in unique about Russia per se. It’s just power oppressed Tunisia might not that the government is smarter than peoples and ad- work in Burma. Also, the Egyptian government was about vance democracy.
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