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Internet Freedom and Political Space / Olesya Tkacheva, Lowell H CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Internet &Freedom Political Space Olesya Tkacheva, Lowell H. Schwartz, Martin C. Libicki, Julie E. Taylor, Jeffrey Martini, Caroline Baxter C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Internet Freedom & Political Space Olesya Tkacheva, Lowell H. Schwartz, Martin C. Libicki, Julie E. Taylor, Jeffrey Martini, Caroline Baxter Prepared for the U.S. Department of State The research described in this report was prepared for the U.S. Department of State. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Tkacheva, Olesya. Internet freedom and political space / Olesya Tkacheva, Lowell H. Schwartz, Martin C. Libicki, Julie E. Taylor, Jeffrey Martini, Caroline Baxter. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-8063-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Internet—Social aspects. 2. Internet—Political aspects. 3. Internet—Government policy. I. Title. HM851.T56 2013 302.23'1—dc23 2013033674 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover design by Dori Gordon Walker Cover images by Thinkstock © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface Over the past decade, the Internet has become a battleground between repressive governments that would censor content and those who advo- cate free access for all. In 2011 the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL) at the Department of State asked RAND to assess the effect of Internet freedom on the relationship between civil society and elected officials worldwide, and to examine such ques- tions as: Does Internet freedom make government more accountable to the people? If, so by which mechanisms? How does expanding free- dom online affect political space offline, and in which countries will these effects be most visible? How can DRL maximize the impact of its ongoing Internet freedom initiatives? This study was conducted during 2011–12 and focuses on the role of the Internet and social media during popular protests in 2011 in Egypt, Syria, China, and Russia. We compare the ways that dif- ferent political contexts and informational environments altered the opportunities for online mobilization and how, subsequently, online activisms grew into offline mobilization. We also studied Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, aimed at the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the Cold War as a way of grounding Internet freedom within the broader context of information freedom. The goal of the study is to identify the mechanisms by which the freedom to browse, post, and share information online may transform state-society rela- tions in nondemocratic regimes. This analysis highlights several mechanisms through which open and free Internet can trigger political transformation. In fully authori- iii iv Internet Freedom and Political Space tarian regimes that outlaw opposition and elections, Internet freedom promotes the expansion of social space and, in so doing, transforms political space. The Internet can also undermine the stability of a non- democratic regime by triggering an information cascade that mobilizes civil society; free Internet can also make political coalitions more inclu- sive by opening deliberations that cut across socioeconomic cleavages, thereby spreading information to people who do not usually interact on a daily basis. The expansion of online freedoms does not automati- cally translate into visible political outcomes, however, because such factors as fragmentation of the elite, support of international allies, and socioeconomic status of netizens affect how authorities respond to online mobilization. This analysis will be of interest both to policymakers seeking to understand how digital media can advance U.S. policy goals worldwide and to scholars working on the Internet-democracy nexus. The research was sponsored by the DRL and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communi- ties, as well as foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. For more information on ISDP, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ about/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is pro- vided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHaptER ONE Introduction: The Autocratic Challenge and Internet Freedom ......... 1 Political Space and the Internet .................................................. 4 Styles of Repression ............................................................... 7 Introduction to Internet Freedom Programs ...................................12 Organization of the Report .....................................................14 CHaptER TWO The Internet and Political Process in Different Regimes ................17 Is the Internet Transforming Politics? Where and How? ....................19 Cyberactivism in Democratic and Nondemocratic Regimes ............... 24 How and Where Can Internet Freedom (Technologies) Transform Political Space? .............................................................. 28 Political Communication and Social Mobilization .........................29 Internet Freedom and Framing Process .....................................32 Key Actors in Cyberspace ......................................................32 Bloggers, Netizens, and Political Space ......................................35 Web 2.0 Users and Political Space ............................................35 Online Activists and Political Space .........................................37 Internet Freedom and the Modes of Transformation of Political Space ... 38 Conclusion ........................................................................41 v vi Internet Freedom and Political Space CHaptER THREE Cyberactivists, Social Media, and the Anti-Mubarak Protests in Egypt ...................................................................... 43 Social Media’s Significance: The Debate .......................................47
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