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UC Berkeley Working Papers UC Berkeley Working Papers Title Bruce Keith's almanac : patterns of voting in California Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8gc4r530 Author Keith, Bruce Publication Date 1988 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California BRUCE KEITH'S ALMANAC PATTERNS OF VOTING IN CALIFORNIA Bruce Keith Election Analyst Associated with the Institute of Governmental Studies INITITUTE OF GOVERNMENTAL STUDIES LIBRARY SEP 18 UNIVERSITY OF CAUFO! Working Paper 88-26 •iSs:' INSTITUTE OF GOVERNMENTAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY BRUCE KEITH'S ALMANAC PATTERNS OF VOTING IN CALIFORNIA Bruce Keith Election Analyst Associated with the Institute of Governmental Studies Working Paper 88-26 October 1988 Institute of Governmental Studies University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 Working Papers published by the Institute of Governmental Studies provide quick dissemination of draft reports and papers, preliminary analyses, and papers with a limited audience. The objective is to assist authors in refining their ideas by circulating research results and to stimulate discussion about public policy. Working Papers are reproduced unedited directly from the author's pages. CONTENTS 1. San Joaquin County Voters' Record In 1964-1984 Period Best Of California Counties As Political Barometer For Outcome Of California's 1988 Presidential Race. 2. Los Angeles And Humboldt Counties Back All Presidential Winners Since Favoring Warren G. Harding In 1920. 3. Contra Costa County Voters Compile Record Of "Most Representative" Of California In U. S. Senatorial Elections Of 1964-1986 Period; Sacramento County Voters "Most Representative" Since 1976. 4. Voters In Monterey County Compile Top Record In Choosing Winning U. S. Senatorial Candidates. 5. Voters In San Bernardino, San Joaquin, San Mateo, And Sonoma Counties Pick The Most Winners In All Races Since 1956 For President, Governor, And U. S. Senator. 6. Unmarked Ballots For Major Elective Offices Of U. S. Senator, President, And Governor A Prevailing Practice For Thousands Of California Voters Since 1976. 7. "Declined-to-State" Registrants Growing At Faster Rate Than Eitlier Democrats Or Republicans Since 1976; Have The Numbers To Be Deciding Factor In 1988's Close Elections. 8. "One-Party System" Alive And Well In Elections For Major Offices In Over A Quarter Of California's Counties. 9. More California Democrats Call The Republican Stronghold Of San Diego County "Home" Than They Do Any Other County, Except Los Angeles. 10. San Franciscan Registrants Make Up Larger Percentage Of "No Shows" At General Election Time In The 1970-1986 Period Than Any Other California County's Registrants. 11. Los Angeles County's Dominance Of State Voter Registrant Perceijitages Broken Further In 1972-1988 Period, As Southern Counties Compile Major Gains. 12. Democratic Political Leaders Strive For 30 Percent Registrant Cushion For Democratic Incumbent Assembly, Congressional Members In Reapportioiiment. -IGS- San Joaquin County Voters' Record In 1964-1984 Period Best Of California Counties As Political Barometer For Outcome Of California's 1988 Presidential Race San Joaquin County voters were the "most representative" of the state of California of all California counties in voting for the President o^ the United States during the six elections of the 1964-1984 period. Not only did the San Joaquin County residents maintain the smallest percentage range from the two-party total of the state vote for the winning carcdidate for President during this time period, but they compiled the second smallest average percentage difference from the state figures in those six elections. In addition, they placed in the top 20 counties closest to the state voting recoird in five of the six Presidential elections. These are some of the several findings made in recent research by the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) from data originally certified in the California Secretary of State "Reports of Registration" and "Statements of Vote." Election analyst Dr. Bruce E. Keith, associated with IGS in its voter research proje(::jts of the past two decades and co-author of the book, "California Votes, 1960-1972," has been investigating and reviewing past and present registration irecords, election results, and voter participation in California's 58 counties. These research efforts are directed toward providing information potentially helpful or interesting to the California voter in the approaching 1988 General Election, In being the "most representative," a county would have the smallest percent- age departure from the state, although not necessarily having alvays voted for the state winner. In this instance, however, San Joaquin County venters were on the side of the six winning California candidates. Being "most representative" is frequently a fleeting honor. Prior to the 1984 Presidential election, Sonoma County voters ranked first among the counties, having both the smallest percentage range difference and the smallest average percentage difference from the state Keith: Most Rep For President page two record for the previous four elections. A very much higher level of support among Sonoma County voters in 1984 for the Mondale candidacy than was present at the state level removed them from contention in this upcoming 1988 election. San Joaquin County ballot casters posted the smallest range of only 2.6 per cent from the state figure in the six Presidential Elections held since 1964. Monterey County voters compiled the next smallest range of 2.8 percent. All other counties had ranges of 3.5 or more percent differences. The following table displays these percentage differences from California's two-party vote for the Presidency for the eight leading counties in the General Elections since 1964j Santa Mari- Contra San Mont San Los Tuo + Clara posa Costa Year Joaquin erey Benito Angeles lumneo CO +4.1 -1.8 +4. 3 1964 + 2.6 + 1.5 -1.7 +4.1 +3.2 -4.1 +2.7 1968 -1.2 -2.7 +0.4 +0.8 -0.8 +3.8 -1.8 + 1.6 1972 -1.3 -2.1 -3.5 + 0.4 -0.4 + 1.9 +0.3 1976 -2.6 -1.7 -1.2 +1.9 + 2.4 -2.3 + 1.7 -2.5 + 2.2 1980 -1.4 -2.500 + 0.1 + 3.9 +2.5 -4.2 + 3.2 1984 -2.1 +0.4CM -3.4 +3.0 -0.8 + 4.2 4.3 Range: 2.6 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.1 In averaging the "closeness" to the state record achieved by California counties in the Presidential elections since 1964, San Joaquin voters' average percentage difference was a low 1.87 percent, tieing with Tuolumne County resid ents. Both counties were slightly behind San Benito's ballot casters whose average difference from the state division of the two-party vote was the smallest with only 1.68 percent. In the period of the last 24 years, these are the counties with the smallest average percentage differences from the two-party vote in these Presidential elections: Keith: Most Rep For President page three Counties With Smallest Average Percentage Differences Average Difference County From State Percentage (percent) San Benito 1.68 San Joaquin 1.87 Tuolumne 1.87 Los Angeles 1.95 Monterey 2.03 Sonoma 2.27 Lake 2.32 Siskiyou 2.35 San Joaquin County voters also placed in the top 20 counties closest to the state division of the vote in five of the six Presidential elections since 1964. Five other counties also placed in five of the elections/ and three counties placed in four of the races. These are the nine counties who placed most freq uently in the top 20 counties in those elections: County 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 San Joaquin 18th .7th 12th 8 th 12th Tuolumne 5th* 7th 20th 13 th 6th Sonoma 16th 9th 2nd 9th 15th Los Angeles 13th 5th* 4th 18th* 16th Contra Costa 17th* 14th 4th 12th 18th Monterey 17th* 17th 15th 18th* 2nd San Benito 11th 2nd nth 1st Lake 15th 8th 2nd 13th Mariposa 14th 15th 18th* 18th* Note: * = tie Being "most representative" of California's voting habits for any particular period is a title most difficult for a county's voters to attain and almost imposs ible to retain from General Election to General Election. In the 1964-1984 period of Presidential elections/ 47 of the 58 counties placed in the top 20 counties Keith: Most Rep For President page four at least once. Twenty-one of the counties were among the top 20 in three — or one-half — of the Presidential elections. Consistency is illusive and honors for this title become a contest, not among the few, but among the many. It is frequently the case that exuberance over any one candidate in any one election may be all that is needed to derail any aspirations that a county's supporters may harbor for attainment of the distinction of being the "most representative" county. Nevertheless, for the 1988 Presidential Election, San Joaquin voters may claim the title! -ICS- Los Angeles And Humboldt Counties Back All Presidential Winners Since Favoring Warren G. Harding In 1920 Voters in Los Angeles and Humboldt Counties have picked the national winner of every Presidential General Election since 1920. Looking at the historical results of these past 17 elections, it can be proclaimed that "As Los Angeles and Humboldt Counties go, so goes the nation!" The largest number of voters of these two California counties have backed the national winning candidate for President since the General Election of 1920, when they favored Warren G. Harding, the Republican candidate and the nation's 29th President-to-be. For 17 consecutive Presidential elections, the voters of these two counties have chosen the candidate who won the nation's highest office — nine of whom were Democrats and eight of whom were Republicans. Ventura, Siskiyou, and El Dorado Counties' voters have compiled only slightly less impressive national winning Presidential records since 1920.
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