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Quilcene-Snow Watershed Planning Area: Prediction of Gaged Streamflows by Modeling

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Quilcene-Snow Watershed Planning Area: Prediction of Gaged Streamflows by Modeling Quilcene-Snow Watershed Planning Area Prediction of Gaged Streamflows by Modeling July 2013 Publication No. 13-03-032 Publication and Contact Information This report is available on the Department of Ecology’s website at https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/SummaryPages/1303032.html The Activity Tracker Code for this study is 12-003. For more information contact: Publications Coordinator Environmental Assessment Program P.O. Box 47600, Olympia, WA 98504-7600 Phone: (360) 407-6764 Washington State Department of Ecology - www.ecy.wa.gov o Headquarters, Olympia (360) 407-6000 o Northwest Regional Office, Bellevue (425) 649-7000 o Southwest Regional Office, Olympia (360) 407-6300 o Central Regional Office, Yakima (509) 575-2490 o Eastern Regional Office, Spokane (509) 329-3400 Cover photos: Department of Ecology flow measurement stations in the Quilcene-Snow Watershed Planning Area Any use of product or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the author or the Department of Ecology. If you need this document in a format for the visually impaired, call 360-407-6764. Persons with hearing loss can call 711 for Washington Relay Service. Persons with a speech disability can call 877-833-6341. Quilcene-Snow Watershed Planning Area Prediction of Gaged Streamflows by Modeling by Paul J. Pickett Environmental Assessment Program Washington State Department of Ecology Olympia, Washington 98504-7710 Water Resource Inventory Area (WRIA) 17 Page 1 This page is purposely left blank Page 2 Table of Contents Page List of Figures ......................................................................................................................5 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................7 Abstract ................................................................................................................................8 Acknowledgements ..............................................................................................................9 Introduction ........................................................................................................................10 Overview of the Watershed .........................................................................................10 Geography ..............................................................................................................10 Climate ...................................................................................................................10 Hydrology and Water Use .....................................................................................10 Land Ownership, Land Use, and Water Use ..........................................................11 Watershed Planning and Instream Flow Rules ............................................................11 Flow Monitoring ..........................................................................................................12 Study Goals and Objectives ...............................................................................................15 Methods..............................................................................................................................16 Data Sources and Characteristics .................................................................................16 Flow Data ...............................................................................................................16 Areal Flows ............................................................................................................16 Regressions and Other Analysis Methods ...................................................................17 Quality Analysis...........................................................................................................21 Results ................................................................................................................................22 Regression-based Model Parameters ...........................................................................22 Regression-based Model Quality .................................................................................22 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................28 Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................................29 References ..........................................................................................................................31 Figures................................................................................................................................33 Appendix. Glossary, Acronyms, and Abbreviations ........................................................59 Page 3 This page is purposely left blank Page 4 List of Figures Page Figure 1. Quilcene-Snow watershed study area. ................................................................34 Figure 2. Measured flows at the Ecology “Big Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ...................................................35 Figure 3. Measured flows at the Ecology “Little Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ...................................................36 Figure 4. Measured flows at the Ecology “Tarboo Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ................................................................37 Figure 5. Measured flows at the Ecology “Chimacum Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ...................................................38 Figure 6. Measured flows at the Ecology “Snow Creek at WDFW” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ................................................................39 Figure 7. Measured flows at the Ecology “Salmon Creek at West Uncas Road” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ...................................................40 Figure 8. Measured flows at the Ecology “Thorndyke Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ...................................................41 Figure 9. Measured flows at the Ecology “Pheasant Creek at Mouth” gaging station, with flows from other selected gages. ................................................................42 Figure 10. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Big Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation and snowmelt data. .....................................43 Figure 11. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Little Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation and snowmelt data. .....................................44 Figure 12. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Tarboo Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation data. .........................................................................45 Figure 13. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Chimacum Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation data. .............................................................46 Figure 14. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Snow Creek at WDFW” gaging station, with precipitation and snowmelt data. .................................................47 Figure 15. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Salmon Creek at West Uncas Road” gaging station, with precipitation and snowmelt data. .....................................48 Figure 16. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Thorndyke Creek near Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation data. .............................................................49 Figure 17. Measured areal flows at the Ecology “Pheasant Creek at Mouth” gaging station, with precipitation data. .........................................................................50 Page 5 Figure 18. Measured flows at the Ecology “Big Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the USGS “Big Quilcene River below Diversion near Quilcene” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. ...............................................................................................................51 Figure 19. Measured flows at the Ecology “Little Quilcene River near Mouth” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the Ecology “Snow Creek at WDFW” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. ................................52 Figure 20. Measured flows at the Ecology “Tarboo Creek near Mouth” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the USGS “Chimacum Creek near Mouth” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. ................................53 Figure 21. Measured flows at the Ecology “Chimacum Creek near Mouth” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the Ecology “Little Quilcene River near Mouth” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. ...........54 Figure 22. Measured flows at the Ecology “Snow Creek at WDFW” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the Ecology “Salmon Creek at West Uncas Road” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. .....................55 Figure 23. Measured flows at the Ecology “Salmon Creek at West Uncas Road” gaging station, and modeled flows based on the Ecology “Snow Creek at WDFW” station, with relative percent difference of paired values. ................56 Figure 24. Measured flows at the Ecology “Thorndyke Creek
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