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Conservation Science News August 21, 2015 Could Be Conservation Science News August 21, 2015 Focus of the Week - Developing El Nino Could be Strongest on Record 1-ECOLOGY, BIODIVERSITY, RELATED 2-CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS with special DROUGHT section 3- ADAPTATION and HOPE 4- POLICY 5- RENEWABLES, ENERGY AND RELATED 6- RESOURCES and REFERENCES 7-OTHER NEWS OF INTEREST 8-IMAGES OF THE WEEK -------------------------------- NOTE: Please pass on my weekly news update that has been prepared for Point Blue Conservation Science staff. You can find these news compilations posted on line by clicking here. For more information please see www.pointblue.org. The items contained in this update were drawn from www.dailyclimate.org, www.sciencedaily.com, http://news.google.com, www.climateprogress.org, www.sfgate.com, and other sources as indicated. This is a compilation of information available on-line, not verified and not endorsed by Point Blue Conservation Science. You can receive this news compilation by signing up for the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Newsletter or the Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium listserve. You can also email me directly at ecohen at pointblue.org with questions or suggestions. Founded as Point Reyes Bird Observatory, Point Blue’s 140 scientists advance nature-based solutions to climate change, habitat loss and other environmental threats to benefit wildlife and people, through science, partnerships and outreach. We work collaboratively to guide and inspire positive conservation outcomes today for a healthy, blue planet teeming with life in the future. Read more about our 5-year strategic approach here. Focus of the Week- Developing El Nino Could be Strongest on Record; Global Warming Speed-Up NOAA Elevated ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are a sign of El Niño. Nature | News: Explainer Developing El Niño could be strongest on record Event could bring rain to drought-stricken California and dry conditions to Australia. Chris Cesare 14 August 2015 Corrected: 14 August 2015 Nature doi:10.1038/nature.2015.18184 The El Niño weather pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean could eventually rank among the strongest on record, forecasters with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on 13 August. A strong El Niño — signalled by the periodic warming of ocean-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific — can lead to heavy rain in parts of North America and drier- than-normal conditions in Australia, Indonesia and parts of India. NOAA says that there is an 85% chance that the current El Niño will last through the first few months of next year, with its strength peaking in November or December. Nature explains why this El Niño is unusual, and how it might affect weather around the world. How does an El Niño form? The weather pattern is the product of a complex dance between sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Normally, trade winds from the east drive cold water from the depths of the eastern Pacific Ocean to the surface. But sometimes those winds weaken, causing the ocean surface to warm and heat the air above it. That warm air rises, and moves north and south from the equator — altering the high-altitude air currents along which storms tend to travel. How do scientists forecast an El Niño? Forecasters in the United States, Japan and Australia monitor sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, paying particular attention to a region called Niño 3.4 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. They also track water temperatures below the ocean surface and the air pressure above, then feed this information into forecast models. If ocean-surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region are between 0.5 to 1 °C above average during a three-month window, NOAA declares a weak El Niño. Forecasters label an El Niño as strong if it exceeds the average by 1.5 °C. NOAA projects that the current event could produce temperatures that are 2 °C higher than average, or more. For comparison, the strongest El Niño on record occurred in 1997–98 and produced temperatures 2.3 °C above average. What makes this El Niño different? Two things. It started unusually early — in March instead of June. This could be because warm waters left over from last year’s weak El Niño gave it a head start, says Anthony Barnston, chief forecaster at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University in Palisades, New York. And this would be the second El Niño year in a row, following the weak El Niño that developed late last year, Barnston adds. A similar El Niño double-header happened between 1986 and 1988, but forecasters predict that the current El Niño will become stronger than either of those two events. Could this end the drought in California? El Niño could offer some relief to the US state, which is now in the fourth year of a historic drought. Forecasters say that there is a good chance that southern California will receive more rainfall than usual throughout the winter. In the past, very strong El Niños have also soaked the central and northern parts of the state. Still, “one season of above-normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought”, says Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. According to a study published last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres1, California's rain shortfall since the start of the current drought is roughly equal to the amount of rain the state would receive in a normal year. What effects might El Niño have elsewhere? El Niño is associated with higher atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific, which tends to produce sunny, dry weather in parts of Australia and Indonesia, says Barnston. The effects can spread all the way to India, which has experienced a relatively dry June and July. “They're having a bad monsoon in India,” Barnston says. In Peru, where waters off the coast typically warm during El Niño, the government has declared a state of emergency because of concerns about heavy rain and mudslides. The little boy [El Nino] and his changing faces Nature Climate Change 5, 787 (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2790 Editorial Published online 17 August 2015 After a false start in 2014, this year is shaping up to host a strong El Niño event. The question is why were last year's predictions of the natural phenomenon wrong? And what is the state of knowledge on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? All systems are go, with the much-anticipated El Niño event underway. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a >90% chance of the event continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter and a strong chance (~80%) of continuing into the start of 20161. The strength of the event is unknown and after the failure to forecast last year (discussed in a Commentary by McPhaden2), there may be some reluctance to make strong statements. That doesn't mean that all are shying away, a NASA climatologist is reported to have stated that a “Godzilla” event will happen3, with 1997/1998 being the last event worthy of this status…. …The El Niño phenomenon has been known for many years, but how much do we understand this natural variability of the climate system? In a web focus this month, ENSO Under Change (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/focus/enso-under-change/index.html), we present a collection of pieces alongside a selection from the archives of Nature Climate Change, Nature, Nature Geoscience and Nature Communications. This body of work investigates how climate change is impacting on ENSO, and more specifically how it is affecting the severity and frequency of extreme ENSO events8. Although many people are familiar (particularly those who reside in countries affected) with the hydrological changes associated with the ENSO phenomenon, there are other, less-known effects. One of these is increases in cyclone intensity in the western Pacific9. The increase is thought to result from a shift in the location where the storms form — warm central Pacific waters. The shift away from land means the storms have more time in open water to gain strength before making landfall. Climate change is thought to play a role in storm frequency, with increased intensity storms expected. This could result in devastation of the communities in their path, although overall storm occurrence may decrease10. A sobering thought, as (at the time of writing) another storm, Typhoon Soudelor, is ramping up in the Western Pacific Ocean. Scientists are working towards understanding the dynamics at play in the Pacific Ocean, but as the climate changes we don't have a stable baseline for comparisons. So let's just consider what is happening now — current information (such as the SST anomalies shown above, which tell only a small part of the story) is that a strong event is underway. The impacts on communities is difficult to predict and only time will tell how extreme the event will become. If anything, the last year and the false start have just reminded us that we still have a lot to learn about this planet of ours. ‘Godzilla El Niño’ Plus Carbon Pollution Equals Global Warming Speed-Up by Joe Romm Aug 17, 2015 8:00am NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert called the intensifying El Niño, “Godzilla.” A NOAA research scientist called it “Bruce Lee” in July, and, by August, she said that what’s coming is “Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious.” Whatever you call it, the short-term burst of regional warming in the tropical Pacific (from the monster El Niño) combined with the strong underlying long-term global warming trend means that 2015 will easily be the hottest year on record — blowing past the record just set in 2014.
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