Consociationalism and Multi-Ethnic States: Post-1971 Pakistan—A Case Study By MUHAMMAD MUSHTAQ (HEC Scholar) Supervised By DR. SYED KHAWAJA ALQAMA DR. AYAZ MUHAMMAD A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Department of Political Science & International Relations Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, Pakistan Abstract This study aims to enhance our understanding relating the utility of consociational democracy for multiethnic states, analyzing the Pakistani case. So, the central concern of this dissertation is whether or not consociationalism is a viable solution for the multiethnic society of Pakistan. To address this concern, three arguments have been presented in the thesis: First, the political mobilization and ethnic strife in Pakistan is not caused by non-consociational features of the federation but because of its relatively centralized settings. Second, consociationalism is not a realistic option for Pakistan to manage ethnic diversity. This conclusion is based on three observations: (a) with some exceptions, favorable conditions for the establishment and maintenance of consociational democracy are missing in the case of Pakistan, (b) the evaluation of Pakistani society illustrates that it is not a case of deeply divided society, (c) and the past experiences of power- sharing arrangements in Pakistan demonstrate the inaptness of these arrangements for this case. Conversely, the study explores the underlying relevancy of federalism with the Pakistani society. Third, the plurality of Pakistanis seems unconvinced by the consociational arguments. A majority of interviewees demonstrated more support for the decentralized federalism than the consociationalism. The irrelevancy of consociationalism with the Pakistani case seems to suggest that consociational democracy’s utility varies across case studies. Hence, it is not, necessarily, a viable solution for all multiethnic societies. In addition, the thesis argues that Pakistan needs a relatively more decentralized federal design to manage ethnic diversity. i Acknowledgement My foremost praise goes to Almighty Allah, my Lord and Creator who empowered and enabled me to complete this research. All my respect goes to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon Him), who emphasized the significance of knowledge and research. I am greatly obliged to my supervisors, Dr. Syed Khawja Alqama and Dr. Ayaz Muhammad Rana for their support, guidance and feedbacks through out my PhD research work. I have been exceptionally fortunate to work under their supervision. I appreciate Higher Education Commission Islamabad for sponsoring my PhD studies. I am equally grateful to the teachers and staff of the Political Science & International Relations, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan for their support. Particularly, Dr. Shahnaz Tariq and Fayyaz Ahmad Hussain from whom I benefited a lot during my course work. I am thankful to Frances Stewart (QEH, Oxford), Nancy Bermeo (Nuffield College, Oxford), Yunas Samad, Iftikhar H. Malik, and Pritam Singh for their valuable academic support during my stay at Oxford University. I am also obliged to the examiners of my thesis, Subrata K. Mitra (Heidelberg), Mathew Nelson (SOAS), and Tahir Amin (QUA), for their helpful suggestions and comments. I am indebted to Ian Talbot for reading the first draft of the thesis. I acknowledge the support provided by the participants and teachers in Summer University (2008) at University of Fribourg, Switzerland. I am thankful to all my friends at BZU who have been helpful and kind throughout my stay at Multan. Particularly, Shahzad Hussain (Economics), Zamir Hussain (Statistics), and Mehmood-ul-Hassan (Statistics) deserve appreciation for their support. I would like to thank Obaid-ur-Rehman, Zafar Hussain Harral, and Malik Javed Iqbal Wains whom have made, in their own way, my time at the campus enjoyable. My deepest gratitude goes to my parents and family members; I could not have completed my work without their love and encouragement. Finally, I would like to thanks Shagufta who shared the all sufferings that I bear while completing this thesis. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract i Acknowledgements ii Table of Contents iii List of Figures viii Chapter No. 1: Introduction 1.1 Prologue 1 1.2 Objectives and Scope of study 4 1.3 Research Questions 6 1.4 Research Methodology 8 1.5 Structure of the Thesis 8 Chapter No. 2: Consociationalism: A Review and Critique 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Consociationalism 15 2.3 Development of the Consociational Theory 16 2.4 The Growth and Expansion of Consociational Democracy 18 2.5 Characteristics of Consociationalism 20 2.5.1 Grand Coalition or Executive Power sharing 20 2.5.2 Segmental Autonomy 23 2.5.3 Proportionality 25 2.5.4 Mutual Veto 26 2.6 Examples of Consociational Arrangements 27 2.7 The Favorable Factors for Consociational Democracy 33 2.8 Collected Critique 36 2.9 Consociationalism and Pakistan 41 Chapter No. 3: Ethnic Diversity: A Problem in Pakistan 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 Movement of Indian Muslims for a Separate Homeland 47 3.3 Pre-1971 Pakistan: Constitutional and Political Development 50 3.4 Post-1971 Pakistan: an Overview of Ethnic Groups and their Locations 53 3.4.1 Punjab 54 3.4.1.1 Punjabi Speaking Region of Punjab 55 3.4.1.2 Siraiki Speaking Areas of Punjab 55 3.4.2 Sindh 55 iii 3.4.3 North-Western Frontier Province (NWFP) 56 3.4.4 Balochistan 56 3.5 Grievances of Smaller Communities 59 3.5.1 Lack of Power-sharing 59 3.5.1.1 Distribution of Political Positions 60 3.5.1.2 Civil Bureaucracy 62 3.5.1.3 Distribution of Diplomatic Positions 65 3.5.2. Militarization 66 3.5.3 Uneven Development and Regional Disparities 69 3.5.4 Distributive issues 75 3.5.4.1 Allocation of Funds: NFC Award 75 3.5.4.2 Water Resources 75 3.5.4.2.1 Apprehensions of smaller units against the construction of Kalabagh Dam 76 3.5.4.2.2 Responses to Kalabagh Dam campaign 78 3.6 Some Substantial Protests and Autonomy Demands of Political Parties 81 Chapter No. 4: Managing Ethnic Diversity and Federalism in Pakistan 4.1 Introduction 93 4.2 Historical Background 93 4.3 Federal Settings in the 1973 Constitution: Theory and Practice 95 4.3.1 Legislative Distribution between Federation and Provinces 95 4.3.2 Administrative Relations between Federation and Provinces 100 4.3.2.1 Emergency powers 102 4.3.2.2 Central Governments Intervention to Federating Units 103 4.3.3 Distribution of Revenues between Federation and Provinces 105 4.3.3.1 Fiscal Decentralization in Pakistan (1971-2006) 107 4.3.3.2. Comparative Fiscal Decentralization in Selected Federations 108 4.4 Politics of Identity in Pakistan 110 4.4.1 Pashtuns’ Separatism 110 4.4.2 Baloch Nationalism 113 4.4.3 Sindhi Regionalism 116 4.4.4 Mohajir Identity Politics 119 4.4.5 Siraiki Movement 124 4.5 Alternative Explanations of Ethnic Mobilization: A Matter of Non-consociational Mechanisms or a Case of Centralized Federal Settings? 126 4.5.1 Pashtuns 128 iv 4.5.2 Balochs 130 4.5.3 Sindhis 132 4.5.4 Mohajirs 135 4.5.5 Siraikis 138 4.6 Conclusion 139 Chapter No. 5: Consociationalism as a Realistic Option for Pakistan: an Assessment 5.1 Introduction 149 5.2 Favorable Factors for Consociational Democracy and the Multiethnic Society of Pakistan 150 5.2.1 No Majority Segment 150 5.2.2 Segments of Equal Size 152 5.2.3 Small Number of Segments 152 5.2.4 Small Population Size 153 5.2.5 External Threats 154 5.2.6 Overarching Loyalties 155 5.2.7 Socio-economic Equality 156 5.2.8 Geographical Concentration of Segments 157 5.2.9 Tradition of Compromise and Accommodation 160 5.2.10 Comparative Analysis of Favorable Conditions in Selected Countries 161 5.3 Politics of Accommodation in Pakistan (1971-2008) 163 5.3.1 Power-sharing Arrangements under the Tripartite Accord 166 5.3.2 Coalition Politics of Post-Zia Era 168 5.3.3 Politics of Accommodation in Post-Musharraf Period 174 5.4 The Degree of Pluralism in Pakistani Case and Consociational Democracy 177 5.4.1 Identification of the Segments and Measurement of their Sizes 179 5.4.2 Composition of Political and Socio-economic Organizations 183 5.4.2.1 Awami National Party (ANP) 185 5.4.2.2 Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) 187 5.4.2.3 Pashtun Khawa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) 189 5.4.2.4 Baloch Nationalist Groups 190 5.4.3 Stability in Electoral Support 194 5.4.3.1 Index of Electoral Success (IES) 194 5.4.3.2 Electoral Stability: Coefficient of Variance 196 5.5 Conclusion 198 v Chapter No.6: Consociationalism as a Policy Recommendation for Pakistan: A Survey of Public Opinion 6.1 Introduction 211 6.2 Methodology 212 6.2.1 Sampling 212 6.2.2 Questionnaire 213 6.3 Findings of the Survey 214 6.3.1 Findings concerning Existing Federal Settings 214 6.3.1.1 Perception about the Domination of Certain Ethno-linguistic Groups 214 6.3.1.2 Findings about the two most Privileged Ethno-linguistic Groups 215 6.3.1.3 Findings about the two most Marginalized Ethno-linguistic Groups 216 6.3.1.4 Power-sharing Arrangements in Exiting Federal Settings 217 6.3.1.5 Alienation of Smaller Communities during Military Rule 217 6.3.1.6 Punjab as a Blockage in Smooth Running of Federalism 218 6.3.1.7 Recapitulation 219 6.3.2 Findings concerning the Proposed Consociational Governance 220 6.3.2.1 Level of Fragmentation in Pakistani Society 221 6.3.2.1.1 Pride for Ethnic Identity 222 6.3.2.1.2 Dislike the Settlement of other groups in Regional Base 222 6.3.2.1.3 Cultural grievances and survival of language 222 6.3.2.1.4 Exclusive Political, Social and Economic Organizations 223 6.3.2.1.5