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The Swiss Technical a N a L Y S I S J O U R N a L THE SWISS TECHNICAL A N A L Y S I S JOURNAL HerbstWinter Autunnoinverno Automnehiver AutumnWinter 2013 The Swiss Association of Market Technicians GENÈVE • LuGano • ZÜRICH Brian Jannsen Photography • Winter 013 • The Swiss Technical Analysis Journal l Zürich Willkommen Benvenuto Bienvenue Welcome l Genève l Lugano From the President’s Desk Dear SAMT members & industry colleagues, The first two debut editions of thisSA MT Journal proved to be a real success, with a record of over 5,000 readers following us from around the world. We look forward to developing future publications of this unique SAMT Journal which is significantly growing in popularity both locally and internationally. All three tri-lingual regional chapters of the SAMT have been very active with regards to technical analysis events in the last few months and the team shall continue with this positive momentum. The main event hosted during lastO ctober was the IFTA conference in San Francisco, California USA. At this yearly event there were a wealth of market experts and many new developments in technical analysis. This ranged from new technical oscillators to other innovative mathematical calculations. The IFTA event has proven to be very helpful in the past and I am confident it will also be in the future. It is fundamental I hope everyone who had the chance to participate at this unique global to read technical industry event had a good time and gained real value from learning some new analysis: Join technical techniques and ideas. over 5,000 SAMT Finally, I also wish to congratulate everyone who has recently passed their colleagues locally professional CFTe diploma exams, notably Muneera Al Dossary, at Saudi and around the Fransi Capital in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that had traveled to Geneva to train with our SAMT immersion course instructors. world that read our SAMT Journal. We wish all our SAMT members and colleagues the very best success in their future aspirations. Best wishes for the new year of 2014! Daniel Daniel Stillhart, President of the Swiss Association of Market Technicians (SAMT) The Swiss Technical Analysis Journal • Winter 013 • 3 crafted for: portfolio managers technical analysts fundamental analysts risk managers private traders educators Why are Financial Professionals all over the world switching to Market Analyst? The world of finance can be ruthless. To stay ahead, a financial professional needs to have the right strategy, discipline and tools that support and grow with them. At Market Analyst we see the importance of staying true to the techniques of the past, all the while embracing the revelations of the future. Market Analyst blends together cutting edge innovations including 3D charts, RRGTM & Volatility Based Support & Resistance, while also being the premier product for anyone interest- ed in more traditional and esoteric studies. Financial Professionals all around the world who just want one powerful product that “does it all”, are finding that Market Analyst is the solution they were look- ing for. Market Analyst exists to give you the edge No matter who you are and what you do, Market Analyst will give you access to tools and features that will improve your work-flow, and give you a real edge in all that you do. Speak to our trained staff now to discover all that Market An- layst can do for you. With offices all over the world, there is always someone ready to help. US: +1 800 557 2702 UK: 0800 • Winter 680 013 0428 • The Swiss CH: Technical 0800 Analysis564 888 Journal mav7.com/samt CONTENTS THE swIss From the President’s desk TECHNICAL Daniel Stillhart 3 THE SWISS ASSOCIATION OF MARKET TECHNICIANS ANALYSIS Zurich Chapter Events 6 JOURNAL AN INTERVIEW WITH ROBERT PRECHTER Ron William, CMT, MSTA 7 LEARNING FROM THE PAST - Looking Back at the Last Century Mario V. Guffanti, CFTe & Alberto Vivanti 11 Volume One, Issue 3 A BOOK REVIEW & INTERVIEW - The Unconventional Van Tharp Thinking WINTER 2013 Mario Valentino Guffanti, CFTe 13 CHARTING THE RISE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Kevin Edgeley, CFA 17 Journal Committee REVIEW OF THE 34TH SFOA BÜRGENSTOCK FORUM September 2013 – Geneva 20 Mario V. Guffanti, CFTe + 39 33 691 91 70 FORECASTING VERSUS MONITORING MARKET TRENDS [email protected] Edward Loef, CFTe 21 THE POLITICS OF PEAK DEBT Ron William, CMT, MSTA Brian Whitmer 23 + 41 78 947 53 87 A TECHNICAL APPROACH TO FUNDAMENTALS The Jobless Claims Report [email protected] Alberto Vivanti 25 THE SWISS ASSOCIATION OF MARKET TECHNICIANS Design & Production Geneva Chapter Events 27 Barbara Gomperts +1 978-745-5944 (USA) THE SWISS ASSOCIATION OF MARKET TECHNICIANS [email protected] Zurich Chapter Events 28 NEW WYCKOFF SCHEMATIC An Accumulation Gradient of Rising Bottoms Hank Pruden, Ph.D. 29 Follow SAMT on THE SWISS ASSOCIATION OF MARKET TECHNICIANS Geneva Chapter Events 31 LUGANO FUND FORUM Mario V. Guffanti, CFTe 32 SAMT MEMBERS @ THE IFTA CONFERENCE San Francisco, CA USA - October 2013 33 THE SWISS ASSOCIATION OF MARKET TECHNICIANS Board of Directors 34 Journal Submission Guidelines and Advertising Rates 35 Membership 37 Education 38 Partner Societies 43 The Swiss Association of Market Technicians (SAMT) is a not-for-profit organization that does not hold a Swiss Financial Services License. It is the aim of the SAMT to promote the theory and practice of technical analysis, and to assist members in becoming more knowledgeable and competent technical analysts, through meetings and encouraging the interchange of materials, ideas and information. In furthering its aims the SAMT offers general material and information through its publications and other media. The Swiss Association The information provided on this Journal has been compiled for your convenience and made available for general personal use only. SAMT makes no warranties implied or expressly, as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained on the Journal. The SAMT directors, affiliates, officers, employees, of Market Technicians agents, contractors, successors and assigns, will not accept any liability for any loss, damage or other injury resulting from its use. SAMT does not accept any liability for any investment decisions made on the basis of this information, nor any errors or omissions on the Journal. This Journal does not constitute financial advice and should not be taken as such. SAMT urges you to obtain professional advice before proceeding with any investment. The material may include views and statements of third parties, which do not necessarily reflect the views of the SAMT. Information on this Journal is maintained by the people GENÈVE • LUGANO • ZÜRICH and organization to which it relates. The SAMT believes that the material contained on this Journal is based on the information from sources that are considered reliable. Although all care has been taken to ensure the material contained on this Journal is based on sources considered reliable we take no responsibility for the relevance and accuracy of this information. www.samt-org.ch Before relying or acting on the material, users should independently verify its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes. The Swiss Technical Analysis Journal • Winter 013 • l Zürich ZURICH CHAPTER EVENT 14 November “Big Picture on European Markets and the Debt Crisis” Brian Whitmer, European Analyst, Elliott Wave International, Atlanta, GA, USA Brian’s presentation can be downloaded from the SAMT Uberflip page at http://samtjournal.uberflip.com/ i/232395 13 November - Paris - Presentation to AFATE “Big Picture on European Markets and the Debt Crisis” Brian Whitmer, European Analyst, Elliott Wave International, Atlanta, GA, USA • Winter 013 • The Swiss Technical Analysis Journal Robert Prechter was born in 1949. He attended Yale University on a full scholarship and received a B.A. in psychology in 1971. He was a professional AN INTERVIEW WITH musician for four years, and in 1973-74 his band recorded an album, now on CD. In ROBERT PRECHTER 1975, Prechter began his financial career Ron William, CMT, MSTA by joining Merrill Lynch’s Market Analysis department under the tutelage of Robert J. Farrell and in 1976 began writing Elliott Mr. Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International, was a guest speaker wave analysis of the financial markets. at the 2013 MTA Symposium in New York, USA In 1979, Prechter founded Elliott Wave International and began publishing “How will the next few years be characterized? Inflation, Deflation or Both?” monthly market analysis under the masthead, “The Elliott Wave Theorist.” Ron William: The Market Technicians Association recognized you as the recipient Prechter served as a member of the board for their 2013 Annual Award at their 40th Anniversary Gala Dinner. How did you of the Market Technicians Association for feel being nominated for your life-long outstanding contribution to the development nine years and as the MTA’s President in of technical analysis? (Please select link to review the MTA 2013 Award, Robert 1990-1991. He currently serves on the Prechter acceptance speech) advisory board of the MTA Educational Foundation. Over the years, Prechter Robert Prechter: Humble and proud at the same time. expanded his business and now employs RW: Looking back in time, what intuitively attracted you to the study of financial a staff of analysts who apply the Wave markets early on in your career? Principle to all major markets around the world. A decade ago Prechter created RP: It was a combination of things. I must have had some interest in money, because the Socionomics as a kid I used to search out rare coins back when it was a viable hobby. At Institute, which is dedicated a young age I mowed lawns, sold snow cones with my brother from our to explaining driveway, and worked at a grocery store after I got my driver’s license. But socionomics, earning money was just a means to an end.
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