Europe's Tough Neighbourhood

EUROPE’S TOUGH NEIGHBOURHOOD URGENT CHALLENGES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT REPORT Europe’s tough neighbourhood | December 2017 3 NEW, COMPLEX CHALLENGES “People weren’t talking FORCE EUROPEAN DEFENCE RETHINK about fake news before, Europe is re-evaluating the concepts and capabilities that underlie its and now we are talking defence, as its security challenges are exacerbated by turbulent developments in the Middle East and worsening relations with Russia. about it all the time” That was the theme of Friends of Europe’s annual Security Policy Summit on 28 November, which aimed to shift talk on European security from threats to Giles Portman opportunities. At the summit, entitled ‘Europe’s tough neighbourhood – urgent Head of the East Stratcom Task Force challenges in a complex environment’, participants sought to identify roles and at the European External Action Service responsibilities at the strategic, tactical and operational levels in the framework of longer-term strategic thinking. (EEAS) Calls for more action to combat cyberattacks have followed the increase in alleged Russian disinformation efforts and meddling in some NATO member states' elections. While these have not been overtly aggressive, they have played a role in exacerbating the unresolved conflict in Ukraine and the instability that has returned to the Western Balkans. “People weren’t talking about fake news before, and now we are talking about it all the time,” said Giles Portman, Head of the East Stratcom Task Force at the European External Action Service (EEAS). “We have raised awareness and raised inoculation and immunity, but there is still a long way to go. There are bots, cyborgs, artificial intelligence and increasingly sophisticated fake imagery. We have been catching up with the game – but we need to get ahead of the game.” There are three things the European Union needs to do, he said. One is to analyse better the problem of fake news and disinformation, which is seen as increasingly important by both the European Parliament and the European Commission. “They recognise that this is not just an external problem, but something that is happening in the EU,” Portman said. His task force is starting a working group on fake news, which will attempt to find some kind of agreement on best practice. “People get news from social media sites, so we need to continue to put across our narrative. That is what we have been doing, but we need to do more. You can eradicate disinformation, but you also need your own narrative.” The second necessity is to continue to support good-quality media. “If you look at the Press Freedom Index, you see where the problems are: not in the EU member states, but in the Eastern Neighbourhood. We need to support investigative journalists, managers and financers. This is a competitive space and they need the financial security.” Thirdly, the EU is running a Russian-language website. “Russian is a special language for the EU,” Portman said. 4 Friends of Europe Russia is widely suspected to be behind the use of these techniques in a “Russia’s use of hybrid sophisticated, hard-to-predict manner that is difficult to counter. The Baltic techniques creates states, former Soviet republics which are now NATO members bordering Russia, are particularly concerned. uncertainty and “Russia’s use of hybrid techniques creates uncertainty and unpredictability unpredictability on security. on security in Europe,” said Zanda Kalnina-Lukaševica, Parliamentary Cyberattacks are becoming State Secretary for European Affairs at the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Young Leader (EYL40). “Digital technology and the more frequent ” Internet are playing a more and more important role in society and the economy,” she said. “They advance our lives, but they also make us more vulnerable. Attacks on media have become commonplace, and we are Zanda Kalnina-Lukaševica becoming aware how much harm they do to our democracy. Cyberattacks Parliamentary State Secretary for European are becoming more frequent.” Affairs at the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Young Leader (EYL40) BALTICS ON THE FRONTLINE Latvia has experienced elements of hybrid attacks, and in 2016 it registered 600 politically motivated incidents Kalnina-Lukaševica said. “Latvia and Estonia are at the forefront of cyber capabilities and boosting resilience. We are increasing efforts to foster a whole-of-society approach. It is important to have a high level of awareness, from schoolchildren to high-level national security officers.” Russia denies engaging in this kind of hostile activity. “How weak is this society and democracy if Russia is producing devastating effects?” asked Igor Kapyrin, Deputy Director of the Department for European Cooperation at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “This is a big brainwashing machine. We were talking about freedom of press, and now we are talking about how to nourish journalists and social media – and what is a truth and what is a lie. If the proposal is to establish EU and NATO rules over the world, it is going to fail.” In Eastern Europe, Russia has been involved with cross-border cooperation arrangements with Latvia, Poland and Ukraine, Kapyrin said. It cooperates on environmental issues in the Arctic with the EU, Norway and Iceland. And there are contacts with NATO. “There is people-to-people contact going on without this frontline spirit,” said Kapyrin. “Today everybody considers that Russia is attacking. But we are condemning these attacks officially. We ask for concrete details so we can investigate, but we are always told it is secret information.” Friends of Europe’s recent global online brainstorm, Debating Security Plus, highlighted the challenges of cyber-related aspects of security “We set out a pathway for the short, medium and long terms,” said moderator Dharmendra Kanani, Director of Strategy at Friends of Europe. “What does it take to build the right infrastructure? Digital technology and drones have completely changed the rules of the game. They are changing what we understand to be the future of defence and security.” Debating Security Plus produced repeated calls for a global convention on cyber security and defence. However, this might not work, said Francesca Spidalieri, Senior Fellow for Cyber Leadership at Salve Regina University’s Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy. “So far, most of the efforts to establish norms and definitions in cyberspace have failed,” she said. “The law of conflict shouldapply in cyberspace. Otherwise, I am sceptical. What are we trying to govern – the free flow of information?” Nevertheless, she said that greater digital awareness and knowledge is needed in government. “We need to educate leaders across Europe,” said Spidalieri. “Europe depends on the Internet and ICT for modernisation and Europe’s tough neighbourhood | December 2017 5 interconnection. So we need to realise that cyber security is not just an IT issue. It is a governance issue. I convert technical terms into business “Peace building includes terms so that politicians and businesses understand how to balance business and security issues.” civil society and it also includes the bad guys. You INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH cannot solve the problem To Europe’s south, the destabilising effects of the Arab Spring in 2011 and by only talking to a few the EU-led military intervention in Libya have contributed to mounting security difficulties. These have included terrorism and mass movements of people” people. At the same time, organised crime is increasingly providing terrorist networks with both the infrastructure to procure deadly weapons and the funds to finance terrorist activities, and the results are being felt in Europe. Pekka Haavisto “Europe cannot be at peace and cannot be prosperous without peace and Member of the Finnish Parliament, Foreign prosperity in its neighbourhood,” said moderator Shada Islam, Director of Minister’s Special Representative Europe and Geopolitics at Friends of Europe. “We need to change the way on Mediation and President we cooperate – not just through traditional government but also through of the European Institute of Peace civil society, such as religious, business and other leaders.” The response has been complicated by the deterioration in Europe’s and the US’ relations with Turkey, their traditional ally in the Muslim world. There is now a growing awareness that security policy needs to be complemented by economic development assistance and engagement with non-governmental organisations. “We have to look to more actors than just governments,” said Kati Piri, Member of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET). “My criticism is that we are sending a soft message to the Turkish government and losing – or risk losing – the 80 million people in the country. At least we could show more solidarity with the people in these dark times. Of course, it is normal that you deal with the government, but we are losing track of the longer-term perspective.” In general, she said, non-governmental organisations need to keep up pressure on authorities. “Civil society needs to keep challenging the government,” Piri said. “However, in different countries there are different limits, so for personal security some organisations have moved from Egypt to Tunisia.” One important role for civil society organisations is to conduct dialogue with young people. “In the countries I work in, civil society is the only platform that the young can use,” said Anas Talalqa, Human Rights Advisor at the Inti Raymi Fund. “We are keeping the youth in the dark and then we ask why young people are joining ISIS. There should be help to form a dialogue with civil society.” Not all non-government contacts will be easy to deal with, but they still need to be listened to, said Pekka Haavisto, Member of the Finnish Parliament, Foreign Minister’s Special Representative on Mediation and President of the European Institute of Peace.

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