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Demographic Projections

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Demographic Projections Demographic Projections This section represents a summary of the demographic projections and statistics utilised in understanding the situational analysis for the SHSUP. A detailed report was submitted in the first Phase of the SHSUP and guided the findings and future processes of the plan. Estimated Population / Household Growth In developing the SHSUP with a longer-term time horizon, the City has utilised a demographic projection that was developed in conjunction with the CSIR. Supplementary inputs have been made by the lead Project Team’s associate, Demacon. The projections and “headline” statistics were the basis of the modelling component of the SHSUP and were utilised in the development and testing of the model. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate the anticipated growth of population and households between 2010 and 2030. There were three scenarios considered, a Base, Low and High rate of growth. For the purposes of the model, the Base scenario was selected as the most appropriate scenario for future growth. The projections of this Base scenario suggest that the population would grow from 3.7 million to 4.3 million within the 20 year time period. In terms of household growth, this translates into an additional 460,000 households (29,500 people / 23,300 households per annum). What is important to note is the large discrepancy between the high and low projections. In terms of the population count, this differs by as much as 2 million (representing a 36% population growth between 2010 and 2030 on the High projection) and a 2% increase on the low projection. Table 3: City of Johannesburg Population Forecast (2010-2030) Difference Total Population 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-2030 Low 3 650 310 3 715 745 3 744 788 3 741 030 3 709 514 59 203 Base 3 710 295 3 893 159 4 053 491 4 191 258 4 300 882 590 588 High 3 753 316 4 083 156 4 496 996 5 078 780 5 814 687 2 061 371 Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight Table 4: City of Johannesburg Household Forecast (2010-2030) Total Number of Difference 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Households 2010-2030 Low 1 263 557 1 367 524 1 445 215 1 503 016 1 548 375 284 817 Base 1 278 813 1 417 617 1 538 149 1 645 588 1 744 881 466 068 High 1 288 384 1 467 136 1 660 849 1 918 908 2 230 807 942 423 Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight The base scenario is a projection based on the “best guess” for the various demographic variables, and includes a trend of urbanisation decreasing over time. For the high and low scenarios, the following assumptions were made relative to the base scenario (Table 5). Table 5: Low and High Scenario Assumptions Fertility Assumption HIV/AIDS Assumption Life Expectancy Migration Assumption Assumption Low: Lower fertility rate, A 5% higher Life-expectancy will Lower in-migration from 2008 phased in HIV/AIDS prevalence decrease by 2 years than the base, i.e. over the years, rate (relative to the phased in from 2008 slower urbanization reaching a level of base scenario) from onwards both as a rates. Reduced in- 3% lower than the 2008 onwards. result from the higher migration over time. base scenario total HIV/AIDS but also fertility rate in 2011. due other health sector issues High This scenario A cure for HIV/AIDS Assume a higher life- Higher levels of in- assumes a constant will be developed in expectancy, phase-in migration; faster fertility rate from the very near future. from 2008 onwards, urbanisation trends. 2008 onwards. For Prevalence rate of to clear the current the base scenario we HIV/AIDS will reduce racial differences in have an assumption from 2012 onwards, life-expectancy. of a decline fertility dropping 20% each rate over time. year, to complete a bell-shape prevalence curve over time. The following figure illustrates the three scenarios (low, base, high) in terms of number of households (2010-2030). Figure 3: City of Johannesburg Household Forecast (2010-2030) Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight Figure 4: Population Increase (2001-2030) – Base Scenario Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight Figure 5: Number of Households Increase (2001-2030) – Base Scenario Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight Demographic Profile Table 6 reflects a summary of the key demographic characteristics within the City of Johannesburg. Table 6: Key socio-economic indicators of the City of Johannesburg Variable Market Characteristics Population size (2012) 3,786,849 Number of Households (2012) 1,337,163 Household Size 2.9 Age profile 0-14 years: 22.7% Variable Market Characteristics 15-19 years: 8.2% 20-34 years: 34.3% 35-64 years: 30.7% 65 + years: 4.1% Economically active (15-56 years): 73.2% Gender Male: 49.8% Female: 50.2% Race African black: 73.4% Coloured: 6.4% White 4.2% Indian Asian: 16.0% Highest level of education No schooling: 7.2% Some primary: 10.1% Complete primary: 5.4% Some secondary: 34.8% Std 10 / Grade 12: 28.7% Higher: 13.9% Level of employment Economically active: 73.2% Employed: 62.7% Unemployed: 37.3% Occupation profile Elementary occupations: 21.9% Clerks: 14.6% Service workers, shop and market sales workers: 13.7% Crafts and related workers: 11.8% Professionals: 11.3% Technicians and associated professionals: 10.4% Dwelling types House or brick structure on a separate stand of yard: 50.8% Informal dwelling / shack NOT in back yard: 13.3% Flat in block of flats: 10.1% House / flat / room in back yard: 8.3% Informal dwelling / shack in back yard: 7.8% Tenure status Rented: 33.0% Owned and fully paid off: 25.2% Owned but not yet paid off: 22.0% Occupied rent-free: 19.8% Transport On foot: 47.8% By minibus: 35.2% By train 7.4% By bus: 6.8% By bicycle: 0.9% Average household income (2012) LSM All: R264 420 annually; R22 035 per month LSM 4-10+: R440 583 annually; R36 715 per month LSM Profile* LSM 1-3: 44.4% Variable Market Characteristics LSM 4-5: 13.4% LSM 6-7: 21.1% LSM 8-10+: 21.1% Source: Demacon Ex Global Insight * Note: Demacon Household Survey & GIS Data Source 2012 3.4.2.1 Age Profile The following findings are noted in terms of the age profile of the City’s population (Figure 6): 22.7% of the City’s population are aged between the ages of 0 and 14 years. 8.2% of the City’s population are aged between the ages of 15 and 19 years. 34.3% of the City’s population are aged between the ages of 20 and 34 years. 30.7% of the City’s population are aged between the ages of 35 and 64 years. 4.1% % of the City’s population are aged over 65 years. Figure 6: CoJ Age Profiles Series1, 65+,CoJ Age Profiles 4.1, 4% Series1, 0-14, 22.7, 23% Series1, 35-64, 30.7, 31% Series1, 15-19, 8.2, 8% Series1, 20-34, 34.4, 34% 3.4.2.2 Education Levels The population in Johannesburg reflects the following education levels (Figure 7): Figure 7: Schooling Levels within CoJ Employment A relatively small segment of the population is not economically active, although there are only a small number of the population segment younger than 15 years of age; older than 65 years; or have physical disabilities. Of the 73.0% of the population that are economically active – 62.7% are employed and 37.3% are unemployed. The primary source market is characterised by a relatively large economically active market segment of which approximately two-thirds are employed, reflecting low dependency ratios. The high levels of employment in conjunction with the moderate level of education reflect a market with a demand focused towards middle to higher range commercial products and services. The unemployment rate of primary market (37.3%) is higher than the national figure of 24%. Breakdown of Income Groups The National Development Plan forecast for 2030 and 2050 suggests that a large proportion of new urban residents will be poor, reflecting a phenomenon referred to as the “urbanisation of poverty”. The Living Standards Measure (LSM) index is an internationally recognised instrument designed to profile a market in terms of a continuum of progressively more developed and sophisticated market segments. The LSM system is based on a set of marketing differentiators, which group consumers according to their standard of living, using criteria such as degree of urbanisation and ownership of assets (predominantly luxury goods). Essentially, the LSM system is a wealth measure based on standard of living, rather than income alone. The market segmentation continuum is divided into ten LSM segments, where LSM 1 signifies the lowest living standard and LSM 10+ signifies the highest living standard. The weighted average annual household income in the City amounts to: Annual Monthly LSM 1-3 R25 364 R2 114 LSM 4-5 R98 960 R8 247 LSM 6-10+ R850 505 R70 875 LSM All R264 420 R22 035 LSM 4-10+ R440 583 R36 715 There is a direct correlation between household income (Living Standard Measure (LSM categories) and housing demand. Approximately 44.4% of the households residing in the Johannesburg area fall within the LSM 1-3 category, which indicates a low income profile and a potential dependency on State sponsorship or the informal market for housing purposes. An additional 13.4% (LSM 4-5) represents a gap market that can barely afford entry level housing. 42.2% is considered to be higher income within the LSM 6-10 categories – representing the private-driven, bonded market.
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