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The Influence of Climate and Topography in Modeling Distributions For The influence of climate and topography in modeling distributions for species with restricted ranges: A case study using the Hawaiian endemic plant genus, Schiedea (Caryophyllaceae) A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of, Doctor of Philosophy In the Department of Biological Sciences of the McMicken College of Arts and Sciences by Sunita Yadav M.A. Geography, University of Kansas, December 1996 B.S. Computer Science, University of Miami, 1991 Committee Chair: Theresa M. Culley, Ph.D. Dr. Hongxing Liu, Ph.D. Dr. Eric Maurer, Ph.D. Dr. Steven H. Rogstad, Ph.D. Dr. Ann K. Sakai, Ph.D. Dr. E. Emiel van Loon, Ph.D. ABSTRACT Dynamic environments affect species distributions and as a consequence also influence intraspecific genetic variation in both space and time. Many factors determine why a species persists in a particular location, some related to environmental tolerances or colonization history, while others are attributable to biological competition or dispersal limitations, such as that occurring on oceanic island systems. Islands are hotspots of endemism where the potential impacts of habitat modification on biodiversity could be substantial. Therefore, the goal of this dissertation was to investigate the influence of the abiotic environment on species geographic distribution patterns and on breeding system distribution within an island genus, in addition to examining genetic diversity within a broadly distributed endemic species. Field collected species presence and absence data for Schiedea globosa were used with climate and topographic predictors to evaluate four different species distribution models (SDM): GLM, GAM, Maxent, and Random Forests. The most accurate model was then used to predict the impact of average shoreline change on suitable habitat at two future time periods. Additionally, I investigated the intraspecific genetic diversity and fine-scale spatial genetic structure for the same species using 11 microsatellite markers from seven populations on the Hawaiian Islands of Maui and O’ahu. Finally, a community-level SDM approach examined the association of abiotic variables with different breeding systems within Schiedea. Abiotic niches for five breeding groups (hermaphroditic- outcrossing, hermaphroditic-selfing, gynodioecy, subdioecy, and dioecy) composed of 33 Schiedea taxa are described from models developed with georeferenced species occurrence records and environmental data. ii At a species level, the most accurate SDM describing S. globosa habitat was the Random Forests model that included six predictors with topographic predictors as the top three predictors. Two of the seven populations are predicted to be critically affected by loss of suitable habitat due to shoreline change, with higher predicted losses on Maui than on O’ahu. Results from genetic analyses indicate that diversity is relatively high in S. globosa (Ho=0.256 and NA=5.6). Strong spatial structure was detected between islands, and within populations with a larger geographical area and demographic size. Estimated average shoreline change in the next 100 years, assuming no change in genetic diversity, was predicted to affect two of the seven populations with loss of one unique allele. At the genus level, there were large differences among breeding system SDMs in their responses to environmental predictors and little to moderate amounts of niche overlap among breeding systems. The largest niche overlap was between the gynodioecious and dioecious groups with the lowest between the hermaphroditic-selfing and subdioecious groups. This research on a narrowly distributed endemic species provides useful information on variable and model selection to make inferences on the sensitivity of such species to future habitat change. The combination of genetic and spatial analytical tools utilized here provides useful predictions to forecast biodiversity consequences while taking into account projected habitat change. Results from pairwise niche comparisons among breeding systems within the entire genus highlight abiotic factors that are associated with the distribution and diversification of breeding systems within Schiedea. iii Copyright © 2015 By Sunita Yadav iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Theresa Culley, for her encouragement and flexibility to pursue this research project. She taught me DNA extraction and field techniques, edited my manuscripts and grant submissions, in addition to providing some amazing opportunities to work on other projects. Thank you Dr. Culley for patiently explaining the complexity of plant breeding systems and your inspiring enthusiasm. I was fortunate to have some wonderful minds on my committee, Dr. Eric Maurer, Dr. Hongxing Liu, Dr. Ann Sakai, Dr. Steven Rogstad and Dr. Emiel van Loon; you have all made this dissertation better with your knowledge and your comments, and challenged me to be a better scientist. I would like to thank Dr. Sakai for her endless knowledge on Schiedea and Hawaii. I also want to express my gratitude to Dr. Rogstad, you have been my Botany guru here at UC and I truly appreciate your kindness and sharp intellect. A special thank you to Dr. van Loon who taught me everything I know about species distribution models, this work would not have been possible without your guidance. Dr. Maurer, I truly appreciate your insightful questions related to conservation issues and Dr. Liu made sure I did not forget my Geography roots. I am grateful to my funding sources, the Yates Scholars Program during my first year at UC, the Choose Ohio First award from 2009-2013, the Benedict Botany Award and the Wieman- Wendel-Benedict Award from the Biological Sciences Department. I am indebted to several people who facilitated this work. Alex Roy at the OCCL provided collection permits and guidance about where to apply for additional permits and Charmian Dang provided contact information. Tara Hirohata and Martha McDaniel at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), and John S. Cumming at the Hawai’i DLNR helped with permits. Joshlyn Sand at the Honululu Botanic Gardens was kind enough to meet me on my first field trip and was especially helpful with advice on contacting people. Pomaka’i Kaniaupio-Crozier at the Maui Land and Pineapple Company gave us access and support for the Maui locations. Joseph Ward helped us to locate one population of S. globosa on Maui. Scott Fischer at the Hawaiian Islands Land Trust helped us in the field on Maui. Clyde Imada at the Bishop Museum provided access to herbarium specimens. All the people in the permitting agencies were enormously helpful and took time to provide either contacts or permits. Some even gave recommendations for the best Hawaiian Shaved Ice. Mahalo nui loa! My two field assistants were indispensable on site, working long hours in often dangerous environments. Thank you to Megan Philpott and Meagan Rathjen for all your hard work, competence, and delightful company in the field. Thanks to my friends Ben T. and Ben M. for answering my GIS questions when I was stuck. I am grateful for my fellow graduate students who taught someone with little background in Biology about evolution, animal behavior, and many other topics. A special thanks to my lab mates Alina, Yamini, Megan, Francis, Susan, Jessica, Rick, Allison, Ben, and Rob for creating a friendly lab environment and many memories. Thanks to the UH students who adopted me as part of their group during conferences and taught me about Hawaiian culture. I am so grateful to UH housing for letting me stay on campus my second field season. v I could not have done completed this dissertation without the love and support of my family and friends, especially my mother Sharbati, my sister Sangita, and my friends Gladys and Seema who often had to act as surrogate mothers to my kids. Thank you for keeping me sane, believing in me, and being there when I needed you. Thank you Anissa for help with data-entry and Sohan for providing many laughs. Lastly, my kids Nitin and Aditya had to sacrifice much in order for me to pursue this goal and they helped me with data-entry, planting S. globosa cuttings in the greenhouse, and counting hundreds of S. globosa flowers. I could not always help you with homework or pick you up early from daycare, and there were many days when I never saw you, but you are wonderful people and I appreciate your generous and beautiful souls. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………….………. ii Copyright………………………………..……………………………………………………………….……………….…………..… iv Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. v Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………… vii List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………… viii List of Figures………………………….…………………………………………………………………………….…….….…..….. ix CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………....… 1 CHAPTER 2: COMPARISON OF FOUR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS TO PREDICT HABITAT CHANGE DUE TO ESTIMATED SHORELINE SHIFT FOR SCHIEDEA GLOBOSA IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS……………………………………….. 10 CHAPTER 3: THE EFFECTS OF SHORELINE CHANGE ON THE FINE SCALE SPATIAL GENETIC DIVERSITY OF THE HAWAIIAN HERB SCHIEDEA GLOBOSA…………………………………………………………………………........................ 61 CHAPTER 4: THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN BREEDING SYSTEM AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE HAWAIIAN ENDEMIC GENUS, SCHIEDEA ……………………………………………………....................................................... 107 CHAPTER 5: GENERAL CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………………….….………….
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