summer, however, temperatures will rise and rise will summer, however, temperatures the into Going in Libya. tolerable relatively are of year, time outages this At power economy. country’s and the citizens of its safety for the consequences serious had has sector industrial third-largest and exploitation mismanagement, the where Tripoli area, greater the affecting crisis electricity the at looks brief policy This for years. neglected have been maintenance and their assets public general, in while, Libya’s conflict of victims collateral of the one been has infrastructure Tripoli. electricity The capital, in the conditions living worsened –has (LNA) Army National Libyan based eastern- and the (GNA) Accord of National Government internationally-recognised the 2019, April –between Since war Libya’s civil Introduction in place in connection with the Covid-19 the with in connection in place currently lockdown the if Even frequent. more and become longer last will blackouts politicized, exploited and exacerbated by Libya’s civil war and illicit economy actors. economy and illicit war Libya’s by civil and exacerbated exploited politicized, been has crisis the of how an overview Tripoli. provides it so, Indoing affecting crisis electricity nine-year-long of the main dynamics the dissects brief policy this backdrop, 2020’s unusual Against front. households’ the on relief appreciable yield to insufficient may prove measures Covid-19-related to due activity in economic reduction Moreover, limitations. budget stricter to subject become and imports shuttered are refineries domestic when atime at operate to fuel require plants power some Indeed, years. previous to compared further even crisis electricity the may exacerbate Turkish intervention GNA-backed of the in protest extraction all on crude-oil factions pro-LNA by imposed year, This ablockade outages. electricity of longer season of Tripoli anew area into heads capital Libyan the rise, temperatures springtime As and its Politicisation Crisis Tripoli’s Electricity 2020 APRIL politicisation of Libya’s politicisation how it is exacerbated by various actors. It It actors. various by exacerbated is it how se and analyses per conflict the linked to is crisis the how shows then It crisis. the to leading weaknesses administrative and infrastructural of the an overview providing by begins document This activities. illicit with links and has industry of the portion aconsiderable affects It installations. electricity on attacks and indirect direct and projects of development halt the from resulting deficiencies infrastructural in roots its has crisis Tripoli’s electricity Tripoli’s plants. power of greater some run to needed products refined and other of diesel shortages severe create to likely is Turkish intervention, GNA-backed the against in protest factions pro-LNA by mid-January,since imposed oil exports on blockade almost-complete the Moreover, remains. outages of long risk the and businesses, by industries consumption in electricity areduction causes pandemic
Y. Abulkher Policy Brief Clingendael Policy Brief
also refers to a parallel and associated maximum consumption of 7,500 MW.2 health and environmental crisis due to the With consumption projected to double to piles of rubbish that have accumulated 15,000 MW within the next 10 years, these since the beginning of the civil war in April stagnant production levels are expected to 2019, before concluding and providing cause an irreversible failure nationwide.3 recommendations. Power outages in Tripoli typically last five hours per day during spring and autumn and for up to 40 hours at a time in the peak An Overview of the summer and winter months. This results in Infrastructural and drastically reduced productivity and revenue, the death of newborn babies in hospital Administrative Deficiencies incubators,4 the spread of respiratory difficulties attributable to ubiquitous power- Libya’s electricity infrastructure has generator smoke, and the undermining been in decline since the 1990s, when of morale among the capital’s citizens. international sanctions made it difficult for ‘Since 2011, our initial civil and political rights’ Muammar Gaddafi’s regime to hire foreign demands have disintegrated to no more engineering companies. Between 2004 and than the basic rights to safety, cash liquidity 2010, Tripoli became less isolated and its and electricity,’ said one Tripoli resident in finances improved. However, the Libyan an interview. GECOL adopts a programme authorities did not seize the opportunity of power load shedding, i.e. rationing to carry out the drastic overhaul that power outage hours in a manner that is the country’s electricity grid needed. proportionate to electricity consumption By February 2011, Libya had entered a per area. However, Tripoli – home to over period of uncertainty, fragmentation and half the country’s permanent and displaced conflict, which is ongoing. population – bears the overwhelming and often sole share of power load shedding Many components of Libya’s infrastructure, in the entire western region. The cities including its electricity grid, have received of Janzour and Tajoura, on the outskirts minimal maintenance for decades. of Tripoli, refuse to fully take part in the They have also been damaged by the programme, and cities such as Zawiya, various bouts of warfighting. What is more, Misrata and those in the western mountains hardly any development projects were often take no responsibility for alleviating undertaken to compensate for damage the nationwide power crisis. to the sector and increasing demand due to the refusal of foreign contractors to operate in Libya’s security environment, especially since the abduction of Turkish electrical engineers in 2017.1 According to the General Electrical Company of Libya (GECOL), Libya’s public electricity monopoly, there is a power deficiency of 2 See GECOL Daily Power Load Updates https:// approximately 25 per cent – with production www.gecol.ly/GECOL_LY/DetailsControl.aspx; averaging 5,800 megawatts (MW) against Cousins, M. (23 October 2019) Candid Assessment of Libyan Energy Sector at Tunis Forum. Online: https://www.libyaherald.com/2019/10/23/candid- assessment-of-libyan-energy-sector-at-tunis- forum/. 3 Gecol (19 January 2018) Report on the Main Questions around Libya’s Electricity Crisis Solutions. Online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q- 1 Reuters (24 June 2018) Three kidnapped Turkish r6GuRJz5Q. Engineers Released from Southern Libya. Online: 4 Busayla, M. (14 January 2017) Libya’s Electricity https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya- Crisis… Multiple Reasons and a Continuous security/three-kidnapped-turkish-engineers- Suffering. Online: https://al-ain.com/article/ released-in-southern-libya-idUSKBN1JK02G. electricity-libya-crisis-interruption.
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Figure 1 Average power load shedding hours (2019)
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Over and above illegal power connections, public infrastructure weaknesses in the theft of copper wires, sabotage of politics of the ongoing civil war – through transmission towers and destruction of two main mechanisms. First, power power stations by petty criminals and armed generator dealers and other profiteers groups, institutional corruption is a major recognised that they could exploit the contributor to the crisis. The Libyan Audit continuing crisis by selling alternatives to Bureau has accused GECOL – which has public electricity and increasing the price received approximately 8 billion Libyan of diesel in the black market. Since 2011, dinars (€5.1 billion) over the past eight household and commercial electricity years – of serious administrative negligence generators, often of a much poorer and operational mismanagement estimated quality than advertised, have flooded to have reduced output capacity by more the country, promoted via sponsored than a half.5 social media advertisements by dealers with access to foreign currency. Several testimonials collected in interviews point Engulfment in the Illicit to the involvement of illicit economic and War Economies actors attacking energy infrastructure or control room operators in Tripoli, leading to outages until generator stocks are sold Infrastructural and administrative out. Because the generator market is so deficiencies aside, the Tripoli electricity lucrative, and because most generators run crisis is a prime example of the gradual, off diesel, diesel is often removed from fuel and often accidental, exploitation of stations to private warehouses – mostly in Libya’s western coastal region and during the peak consumption months – where it is sold on the black market at 12 times the 5 See Libyan Audit Bureau Report 2017, official rate. pp. 797-811 (2017) http://audit.gov.ly/home/ pdf/LABR-2017.pdf; Libyan Audit Bureau The second mechanism has been the Report 2015 in English, pp. 291-299 (2015) control or disruption of the power supply http://audit.gov.ly/home/pdf/EN-LABR-2015. pdf; Sada News (1 October 2019) Audit Bureau for leverage, protest, retaliation or the reveals Negligence of Stations and Resource exertion of influence. Outside of Tripoli, Mismanagement at GECOL. Online: https://sada. stronghold districts and cities that are far less militarily fragmented than the . /ديوان-املحاسبة-يكشف-وجود-إهامل-للمحطا/ly/2019/10/01
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capital refuse to pick up any power load The Electricity Crisis in Light of shedding hours, often by force.6 A recurring the Ongoing War in Tripoli source of disruption comes from the city of Zawiya, where in 2017 gas gauges from its power station were closed in protest at the With regards to LNA-controlled eastern kidnapping of local people in Wersheffana. Libya – which has its own parallel GECOL – This resulted in a total blackout and the it is important to clarify that the inoperative nationwide electricity network being interconnection supply lines between west compromised.7 Last July, armed groups from and east have prevented the politicisation the city cut off the south’s power supply, to of electricity resources between the divided which southern armed groups retaliated by regions.11 However, the LNA’s advance forcing the Libyan Man-made River Authority on Tripoli since April 2019 has rendered to disrupt the water supply to western and the electricity supply vulnerable to both central Libya for weeks.8 Subsequently, warring camps. control of the power supply is influential on the premise that it offers an opportunity for The early months of the LNA offensive patronage,9 as was true for the commander on Tripoli saw few to no power outages of the Abu Slim force in central Tripoli. due in part to low demand but also, For years he threatened the nearby control possibly, to the GNA’s short-lived policy rooms against administering any (high) of public appeasement, which included, power outages in the district.10 This made for example, the timely payment of public him popular with local residents and gave wages. The GNA is regularly criticised him legitimacy, despite public consensus for its neglect of and failure to provide against irregular armed groups in the capital. public services in Tripoli, which many view as contributing to the electricity crisis. Residents note that power load shedding tends to disappear every year on 17 February, when the revolution is celebrated, despite there being high demand as it is one of the coldest months. They also note that power load shedding tends to spike to prevent the public from acceding certain 6 Alarabiya (17 January 2017) Libya drowning in news or developments, such as the LNA’s Darkness due to Collapse of Electricity Grid. “zero-hour declaration” in December 2019 Online: https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/north- which coincided with a blackout. Despite the circumstantial nature of the above .#ليبيا-غارقة-يف-الظالم-النهيار-شبكات-الكهرباء/africa/2017/01/15 7 Remarks of SRSG Ghassan Salame to the United observations, more substantiated sources Nations Security Council on the Situation in point towards the GNA’s local armed allies Libya (29 July 2019) https://unsmil.unmissions. aggravating the crisis in order to punish org/remarks-srsg-ghassan-salam%C3%A9- Tripoli’s citizens for their support for the united-nations-security-council-situation-libya- 12 29-july-2019; Busayla, M. (14 January 2017) LNA or their lack of participation against Libya’s Electricity Crisis… Multiple Reasons and a the LNA’s advance. GECOL’s top officials Continuous Suffering. Online: https://al-ain.com/ have admitted, most recently at a press article/electricity-libya-crisis-interruption. conference in July 2019, that equal load 8 Hadiya, Z. (15 July 2019) A Different Kind of War shedding hours between cities could not be between Libyan Regions… Water for Electricity. instituted because of armed interventions Online: https://www.independentarabia.com/ األخبار/العامل-العريب/حرب-من-نوع-آخر-بني-املناطق-/node/41446 .الليبية-املاء-مقابل-الكهرباء 9 Ghubara, A.(18 August 2018) Electricity… A Major 11 Alraed Channel (2 February 2016) Special Coverage: Libyan Dilemma. Online: https://www.afrigatenews. Libya’s Electricity Sector’s Reality, Challenges /and Future. Online: https://www.youtube.com ./الكهرباء-معضلة-ليبية-كربى/net/article 10 Libya Bahi (20 July 2018) Two Dead in the watch?v=nhlI3G4pj1E. Ranks of Protestors over the Blackout in Tripoli. 12 Alwasat (4 August 2019) Three Power Stations Online: http://www.libyabahi.com/index. raided in Tripoli. Online: alwasat.ly/news/ php?s=news&id=32721. libya/253340.
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that it refused to name, stating only that its in a nearby temporary landfill.16 This has operators and units are attacked on average been disrupting a network supply of 400 four times a day.13 MW.17 Due to its dense population, which keeps being displaced further inwards by The increased power outages in the summer the conflict, the capital generates up to of 2019 could also have been in the GNA’s 3,000 tons of waste per day.18 Theoretically, favour in terms of local support, since the waste management in Tripoli is conducted heavy fighting in southern Tripoli resulted in stages by public cleaning companies in serious damage to many transmission under the auspices of the Ministry of Local towers and supply lines, preventing GECOL Governance. Waste is collected in trucks engineers from accessing the conflict zone from residential, commercial and industrial for maintenance.14 Moreover, the hostilities areas to transitory sites in the city until their forced the departure of three foreign final transportation to the main landfill of Sidi technical teams that were renovating Al-Sayeh, 50 km south of the city.19 However, generation units in southern Tripoli.15 GNA- rubbish collection services in the capital supporting media outlets attribute all these have ceased since the LNA’s advance in April losses to the LNA. Subsequently, worsening 2019. In the summer of 2019, the main landfill living conditions and the displacement of came under LNA control in an inaccessible hundreds of thousands of families due to conflict area, rendering it out of reach.20 the fighting has reinforced local support for the GNA. Since the municipalities halted waste collection services,21 households and businesses have been forced to dump their The Parallel Crisis of Uncollected Rubbish 16 Alwasat (2 February 2020) South Tripoli Electricity The electricity crisis appears to be mutually Station Suspended due to Burnt Rubbish. Online: http://alwasat.ly/news/libya/272065; Assad, A. reinforcing a parallel rubbish crisis in Tripoli. (8 February 2020) Libya’s Electricity company According to GECOL, the Southern Tripoli Resumes Operations of South Tripoli Power Plant. Electricity Station, in the south-west of the Online: https://www.libyaobserver.ly/news/libyas- city under GNA control, has been repeatedly electricity-company-resumes-operations-south- breaking down due to its turbines becoming tripoli-power-plant. blocked by the smoke from burning waste 17 Alwasat (2 February 2020) South Tripoli Electricity Station Suspended due to Burnt Rubbish. Online: http://alwasat.ly/news/libya/272065. 18 Zaptia, S. (9 October 2019) Tajura Waste Recycling Project Launched. Online: https://www.libyaherald. com/2019/10/09/tajura-waste-recycling-project- launched/. 13 Aljazeera (14 July 2019) GECOL Press Conference 19 Asharq Al-Awsat (3 October 2019) As Libya’s on the Electricity Crisis. Online: https://www. War Drags on, Tripoli Drowns in Waste. Online: youtube.com/watch?v=X4XT5P54yMo. https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1929946/ 14 Middle East Online (30 May 2019) Tripoli Residents libyas-war-drags-tripoli-drowns-waste; Lewis A. Torn Between the Hell of Conflict and the Flames (15 October 2019) War means Mountains of Garbage of a Summer without Electricity. Online: https:// in Tripoli’s Streets. Online: https://www.reuters. -com/article/us-libya-security-rubbish/libyan مخاوف-سكان-طرابلس-بني-جحيم-/middle-east-online.com -France 24 (30 May 2019) conflict-leaves-rubbish-mounds-smoldering-in ;املعارك-ولهيب-صيف-بال-كهرباء War-torn Libya’s Electricians battle to keep the tripolis-streets-idUSKBN1WT1MJ. Lights on. Online: https://www.france24.com/ 20 UNDP Libya (4 February 2020) New Lenses for Blind en/20190530-war-torn-libyas-electricians-battle- Solid Waste Areas. Online: https://www.ly.undp.org/ keep-lights. content/libya/en/home/presscenter/articles/2018/ 15 218 TV (12 July 2019) Libyan State ‘Responsible’ for blog-New-lenses-for-blind-solid-waste-areas.html. Electricity Cut-off: General Company for Electricity. 21 Asharq Al-Awsat (3 October 2019) As Libya’s War Online: https://en.218tv.net/2019/07/12/libyan- Drags on, Tripoli Drowns in Waste. Online: https:// state-responsible-for-electricity-cut-off-general- aawsat.com/english/home/article/1929946/libyas- company-for-electricity/. war-drags-tripoli-drowns-waste.
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rubbish on the street and burn it.22 As a and skin conditions,28 while doctors and temporary solution, the transitory sites were researchers warn of the return of diseases used as permanent landfills, but to no avail.23 such as cholera and malaria,29 and now the The inner-city sites in Abu Slim and Suq threat of the Covid-19. Locals have been al-Juma are small and already operating much more vocal about the rubbish crisis beyond capacity.24 For about a month at the than they have about the interminable height of the crisis, one site was closed by and less immediate electricity crisis. armed groups until the GNA made a pay- Many protests have been organised against off,25 signifying further exploitation of the municipal decisions to open temporary crisis. The uncollected rubbish led to the landfills in residential areas.30 One angry appearance of pop-up landfill sites across demonstrator even aimed his grievance at the city, the most recent being in the Suq both warring camps: ‘Keep your ministerial Al-Juma Municipality, close to Mitiga airport portfolios and keep the money, but do find – Tripoli’s only functional airport.26 The a solution to this garbage crisis because Ministries of Transport and Local Governance it’s making us sick’.31 Power outages often have criticised this decision because of disrupt the pumping of water to businesses its negative consequences for the aviation and households that do not possess rooftop and service industries in the vicinity.27 water tanks. This could have a profound This signifies a further deepening of divisions impact on preventative hygiene measures between central public administration actors against waste in public spaces and the and decentralised unilateral efforts to tackle Covid-19 pandemic. the crisis.
Tripoli’s streets, neighbourhoods and Conclusions even highways are drowning in rubbish, causing increased threats to public health. Undeniably, technical frailty is the operational Bad odours, germs and insects are spreading root of the electricity crisis in Tripoli, but alongside a rise in respiratory illnesses it is exacerbated and perpetuated by its politicisation as part of the civil war. As summer approaches, rising temperatures 22 Zaptia, S. (9 October 2019) Tajura Waste Recycling will put greater demand on the electricity Project Launched. Online: https://www.libyaherald. network. Although the effect of industrial and com/2019/10/09/tajura-waste-recycling-project- commercial shutdown due to the Covid-19 launched/. pandemic could offset some of the pressure, 23 Libya Al-Ahrar (11 October 2019) Tripoli Garbage hospitals and homes may still not receive Crisis – Another Face of Hafter’s Aggression. Online: a regular electricity supply. The ongoing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRjnfEXlgu0; January 2020 blockade of oil exports Lewis, A. (15 October 2019) War means Mountains imposed by pro-LNA factions in protest of Garbage in Tripoli’s Streets. Online: https:// against the GNA-backed Turkish intervention www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security- rubbish/libyan-conflict-leaves-rubbish-mounds- smoldering-in-tripolis-streets-idUSKBN1WT1MJ. 24 Lewis, A. (15 October 2019) War means Mountains 28 Asharq Al-Awsat (3 October 2019) As Libya’s of Garbage in Tripoli’s Streets. Online: https:// War Drags on, Tripoli Drowns in Waste. Online: www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security- https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1929946/ rubbish/libyan-conflict-leaves-rubbish-mounds- libyas-war-drags-tripoli-drowns-waste. smoldering-in-tripolis-streets-idUSKBN1WT1MJ. 29 Aljazeera Media Library (4 November 2019) 25 Naji, K. (28 September 2019) Garbage seizes its Grip Garbage Piling in the Capital’s Streets. on Tripoli. Online: bit.ly/3dxE1eQ. Online: https://www.youtube.com/ 26 Zaptia, S. (9 October 2019) Tajura Waste Recycling watch?v=pDqkZnWi43g. Project Launched. Online: https://www.libyaherald. 30 Libyan Cloud News Agency (23 January 2020) com/2019/10/09/tajura-waste-recycling-project- Alsarraj and Alkarama Locals Oppose the launched/. Establishment of an Interim Landfill. Online: https:// 27 Libyan Cloud News Agency (6 February 2020) www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTmKx6O-0d0. Ministry of Local Governance Undersecretary: We 31 Asharq Al-Awsat (3 October 2019) As Libya’s Were Surprised by the Establishment of the Interim War Drags on, Tripoli Drowns in Waste. Online: Landfill in Mitiga Airport. Online: https://www. https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1929946/ youtube.com/watch?v=sqbRpAGOPGs. libyas-war-drags-tripoli-drowns-waste.
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could cause even further escalation in the with this reality, the main recommendation is electricity crisis. As revenues plunge, the for national actors and their foreign backers fuel needed to operate some power plants to put an immediate end to the escalation will be harder to come by.32 More generally, of the conflict or to support a humanitarian weaker public finances mean that even less pause. In isolating the electricity crisis, the maintenance work will be carried out. following recommendations are offered to policy actors: As in many other conflict zones, local armed 1. From a technical perspective, import actors and profiteers in Tripoli exploit the electricity from neighbouring weakness of public infrastructure and countries as a viable short-term solution services. For example, they distribute to prevent the collapse of the electricity subsidised goods such as cooking gas and network. Algeria and/or Egypt could wheat at exorbitant prices. At the same time, supply an additional 400 MW to the power rental prices for displaced families have grid. This option proved successful in spiked and the already high cost of living in the eastern region.33 the capital continues to rise. 2. The EU and its member states should take initiatives to deploy European technology Since the crisis is underreported in and expertise to repair and bolster the both international and national media, Tripoli area’s electricity infrastructure. understanding the politicised elements of 3. A drastic solution would be to go green Libya’s electricity crisis relies to a great by shifting the focus of national extent on observing the market and conflict production and international aid to dynamics in the wider context of the civil solar energy. A study by the University war. What is certain is that the indiscriminate of Nottingham estimated that Libya imposition of power load shedding hours could harness the equivalent of seven on the residents of Tripoli, along with the million barrels of oil a day from the sun by accumulation of rubbish and the impact of covering just 0.1 per cent of its territory the Covid-19 pandemic, is leading to a health with solar panels,34 which would generate and environmental crisis. Although Libya’s 250 MW of electricity plus extra for electricity crisis has many roots – pertaining export.35 The UN Development Programme to fragile infrastructure, poor administration, has already successfully installed solar and coercion by non-state actors – lack panels in several Libyan hospitals.36 of security has been the main problem affecting it. Only when a steady national security apparatus is restored and armed attacks on power installations have ceased will foreign companies return to complete 33 Middle East Online (30 May 2019) Tripoli Residents development projects and the power load Torn Between the Hell of Conflict and the Flames of a shedding system become just. Summer without Electricity. Online: https://middle- مخاوف-سكان-طرابلس-بني-جحيم-املعارك-ولهيب-/east-online.com .صيف-بال-كهرباء 34 Alaraby (6 September 2019) Could Solar Power Recommendations be the Answer to Libya’s Energy Problems? Online: https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/ Tripoli’s electricity crisis existed prior to the indepth/2019/9/6/Developing-solar-power-energy- current armed conflict, oil blockade, rubbish in-Libya. crisis and Covid-19 pandemic. As summer 35 Libya 218 (26 June 2019) Power Outages in Libya… heat returns, the combination of all these An Annual Crisis… Problems and Solutions. Online: factors increases the probability of a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX6I0c5Mj_Y. humanitarian catastrophe. In coming to terms 36 UNDP, Boosting Benghazi’s Health Sector: Solar Energy for Al-Kwayfia Hospital. Online: https:// www.ly.undp.org/content/libya/en/home/stories/ Boosting-Benghazi-Health-Sector-Solar-Energy- 32 Laessing, U. and Lewis, A. (17 January 2020) for-Al-Kwayfia-Hospital.html; Alaraby (6 September Eastern Libya Halts More than Half the Country’s Oil 2019) Could Solar Power be the Answer to Libya’s Output. Online: https://www.reuters.com/article/ Energy Problems? Online: https://www.alaraby. us-libya-oil/eastern-libya-halts-more-than-half- co.uk/english/indepth/2019/9/6/Developing-solar- the-countrys-oil-output-idUSKBN1ZG2B5/. power-energy-in-Libya.
7 About the Clingendael Institute Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations – is a leading think tank and academy on international affairs. Through our analyses, training and public debate we aim to inspire and equip governments, businesses, and civil society in order to contribute to a secure, sustainable and just world. www.clingendael.org @clingendaelorg [email protected] The Clingendael Institute +31 70 324 53 84 The Clingendael Institute clingendael_institute Newsletter
About the author
Y. Abulkher, a Tripoli native, is now a PhD candidate based in the Netherlands and has previously worked for international missions and public administrations in Libya.