Essays on Market Microstructure
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Ekonomi och samhälle Economics and Society Skrifter utgivna vid Svenska handelshögskolan Publications of the Hanken School of Economics Nr 197 Arto Thurlin Essays on Market Microstructure Price Discovery and Informed Trading Helsinki 2009 < Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading Keywords: market microstructure, price discovery, informed trading, tick data, cross- listing, market transparency, event study, macroeconomic data, equities. © Hanken School of Economics & Arto Thurlin Arto Thurlin Hanken School of Economics Department of Finance and Statistics P.O.Box 479, 00101 Helsinki, Finland Distributor: Library Hanken School of Economics P.O.Box 479 00101 Helsinki, Finland Telephone: +358-40-3521 376, +358-40-3521 265 Fax: +358-40-3521 425 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.hanken.fi ISBN 978-952-232-032-2 (printed) ISBN 978-952-232-033-9 (PDF) ISSN 0424-7256 Edita Prima Ltd, Helsinki 2009 i PREFACE Most of this research was carried out at the Department of Finance and Statistics at the Hanken School of Finance in Helsinki. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the Head of the Department, Professor Eva Liljeblom, for providing the resources to conduct this research, including extensive intraday databases and the computing power needed to analyze the data. I am also indebted to the two other members of my Thesis Advisory Committee, Assistant Professor Anders Ekholm and Professor Mats Hansson, who provided me with innumerable valuable comments and suggestions. I am particularly pleased that many of our discussions with Anders took place in the soothing environment of a traditional Finnish smoke sauna, and during invigorating bicycle rides. I also conducted part of this research as a Visiting Scholar at HEC in Paris and the Australian School of Business at UNSW in Sydney. I would therefore also like to thank Professor Thierry Foucault, Professor Peter Swan and Senior Lecturer Joakim Westerholm for stimulating talks, comments, and ideas during these research visits. I also wish to thank Mikko Leppämäki, Director of the Graduate School of Finance, for organizing excellent opportunities for presenting my work at seminars and workshops. Mikko also arranged for me to meet with several excellent researchers in my field, and in this way also made my first overseas visit possible. I am also greatly indebted to the external examiners of the thesis, Professor Erik Theissen and Professor Thierry Foucault. This thesis benefited greatly from their perceptive, constructive and detailed comments. My colleagues at the Department of Finance and Statistics have been a source of both inspiration and fun during my years at Hanken. I have had the pleasure to work with Anders Wilhelmsson, Andriy Andreev, Annika Sandström, Benjamin Maury, Bernard Ben Sita, Doureige Jurdi, Erkki Nikoskelainen, Hanna Westman, Hans-Kristian Sjöholm, Jan Antell, Karl Felixson, Magnus Blomkvist, Mari Hintikka, Niklas Ahlgren, Nikolas Rokkanen, Olga Karakozova, Peter Nyberg, Sheraz Ahmed, and many others. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from Stiftelsen Svenska handelshögskolan, CEFIR, Näringslivets fond, Stiftelsen för främjandet av värdepappersmarknaden i Finland, Bröderna Ernst och Lars Krogius forskningsfond, Säästöpankkien tutkimussäätiö, Nordea pankin säätiö, and OP-Ryhmän tutkimussäätiö. Finally, I want to thank my parents, Airi and Juhani, sine quibus non. ii iii CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................... I CONTENTS ................................................................................................... 3 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND MAIN FINDINGS .......................... 1 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 3 2 Relevant earlier research ...................................................................................... 5 3 Econometric methodology ................................................................................... 7 4 Data and exchanges .............................................................................................15 5 Summary of the essays ........................................................................................ 17 6 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 19 References ..................................................................................................................... 20 THE ESSAYS ............................................................................................... 27 ESSAY 1: PRICE DISCOVERY FOR EUROPEAN CROSS-LISTED STOCKS ................................................................................................... 29 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 30 2 The Exchanges .................................................................................................... 33 3 Data ..................................................................................................................... 34 4 Unit root and cointegration tests ....................................................................... 37 5 Price discovery during hours of simultaneous trading ...................................... 39 6 Cross-sectional analysis ...................................................................................... 42 7 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 49 References ......................................................................................................................51 ESSAY 2: PRE-TRADE TRANSPARENCY, MARKET QUALITY, AND INFORMED TRADING .......................................................................... 55 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 56 2 Institutional details and the dataset .................................................................. 60 3 Informed trading ................................................................................................ 62 4 Empirical analysis ............................................................................................... 66 5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 79 References ..................................................................................................................... 80 iv ESSAY 3: MACROECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS AND CROSS- LISTED STOCKS .................................................................................... 85 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 86 2 Data ..................................................................................................................... 88 3 Price discovery .................................................................................................... 91 4 Results ................................................................................................................. 94 5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 106 References ................................................................................................................... 107 ESSAY 4: INTRA-MARKET PRICE DISCOVERY: ARE LOCAL OR FOREIGN INVESTORS MORE INFORMED? ..................................... 111 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 112 2 Data sample ........................................................................................................ 114 3 Local and foreign trading .................................................................................. 117 4 Analysis of price discovery ................................................................................ 121 5 Cross-sectional regression ................................................................................ 128 6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 131 References ................................................................................................................... 132 APPENDICES Essay 1 Appendix 1 ......................................................................................................................... 50 v TABLES Essay 1 Table 1 Summary statistics of sample companies ....................................................... 36 Table 2 Error Correction Model (ECM) estimation results ......................................... 41 Table 3 Shares of price discovery ................................................................................. 43 Table 4 The explanatory variables ................................................................................ 46 Table 5 Cross-sectional results ..................................................................................... 48 Table 6 The number of zero-return intervals ............................................................... 50 Essay 2 Table 1 Descriptive statistics ........................................................................................ 61 Table 2 Univariate results, pre-change (non-anonymous) and post-change