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It's Time to Expand Nuclear Power

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It's Time to Expand Nuclear Power Intelligence Squared U.S. 1 01/23/2020 January 23, 2020 Ray Padgett | [email protected] Mark Satlof | [email protected] T: 718.522.7171 It’s Time to Expand Nuclear Power Guests: For the Motion: Kirsty Gogan, Daniel Poneman Against the Motion: Arjun Makhijani, Gregory Jaczko Moderator: John Donvan AUDIENCE RESULTS Before the debate: After the debate: 49% FOR 47% FOR 21% AGAINST 42% AGAINST 30% UNDECIDED 11% UNDECIDED Start Time: (00:00:00) John Donvan: We have a key note conversation because the topic relates to science. Would you please welcome to the stage Bill Nye, the science guy? [applause] Bill Nye: John, so good to see you! John Donvan: Great to see you. [applause] So, that was the appropriate level of applause, I think. Bill Nye: Wow! Intelligence Squared U.S. 2 01/23/2020 John Donvan: There was a really interesting story that relates to you and Intelligence Squared that I want to start with. Bill Nye: Ah, yes. Yes. John Donvan: And you were -- you have been, in the past, a member of our audience. You've been out there. And there was one particular debate that you attended, and an interesting thing happened. Pick it up from there. Bill Nye: So, I was at a debate about genetically-modified organisms, GMOs. And -- John Donvan: The resolution was: Genetically modified food -- Bill Nye: Is good or bad. Or was necessary. John Donvan: No. It was -- it was stated as an imperative: "Genetically-modified food." It was a sentence. Bill Nye: Ah, yes. John Donvan: Okay. Bill Nye: So, I have been skeptical -- had been skeptical of it because we have so much extra food in the world that goes to waste. 00:01:06 And when I was -- when I had come of age and was doing science education on the TV, there was -- it would -- to sequence the genome of a corn plant would take a month or so. And so, I felt that you could have knock -- so-called knock-on effects. You could do something to the ecosystem of a farm that you didn't mean to do. And this would then make it -- GMOs just not necessary, and let's not do it, and let's not -- you know, Prometheus; let's not mess with the unknown. But I watched the debate. And the key figure for me was Rob Fraley, who was the head of Monsanto. Monsanto -- aghh!! [laughter] Intelligence Squared U.S. 3 01/23/2020 And he was very compelling. And so, he button-holed me after the debate. And he invited me to St. Louis, to Monsanto -- aghh! -- in St. Louis. And I went there. And I looked around, and I did more research, and I said, "Genetically-modified foods -- or genetically-modified organisms are really okay." They can sequence -- they, those people -- can sequence genes now in about five minutes. 00:02:20 It's really amazing. So, in the 20 years since I did the "Science Guy" show, I believe that that's unjustified. I believe that technology advanced to the point where they really can get a very good sense of what will happen to ecosystems. And they do just extensive tests. And Monsanto -- Monsanto! -- is now there. And did you ever see Young Frankenstein? John Donvan: Yes. Bill Nye: You know, Frau Bruko -- uggh! You know? So, I decided that they're really not the great evil. And we have -- when I was a kid, I came to New York City. The World's Fair was here. And there were -- the United Nations had a total board. There were 3 billion people in the world. As of today, there are about 7.6 billion people. 00:03:09 There are going to be 9; there are going to be 100 -- probably 10 billion people. And they're all going to have to eat something. And I think genetically-modified crops are going to be a big part of the future. That's what I've concluded. John Donvan: So, since we're -- Bill Nye: But it started here. John Donvan: And that's what – [applause] -- I will not interrupt an applause line for Intelligence Squared. I almost did. But I -- it would be interesting to hear your experience on the process of changing your mind in the face of a scientific argument being put before you. Tonight we're hearing -- we're going to be hearing scientific arguments. A lot of us are laypeople in regard to science. Can you share two things? One -- I'll ask it in sequence; so I'll say the same question -- repeat the same question later. But the first one is, in any way, was it difficult for you to let go of a conviction? Like what's that emotional process like? Intelligence Squared U.S. 4 01/23/2020 Bill Nye: Well -- and I tell every -- you don't do immediately. It's not the so-called lightbulb. You sit and think about it. And I -- you know, I had the resources to go two places. I went to St. Louis and walked around Monsanto. Then I went to Minneapolis, to the Monarch Venture. 00:04:16 So, one of the concerns about glyphosate, which you know as Round-Up, is that it kills milkweed, which farmers think of as a weed -- but a monarch butterfly -- I don't know exactly what they think, but I believe they think of it as food. And so, one of the concerns was -- or a huge concern was you're killing the monarch butterflies because the glyphosate is killing the milkweed. So, they had this meeting of what I would describe the corporate pigs -- Monsanto, aghh! -- Frau Burko -- and -- John Donvan: It's getting smaller and smaller. Bill Nye: -- and the hippies, the monarch butterfly loving hippies. And they reached this -- I thought -- kind of cool agreement. There are now refugees of milkweed on what people call the flyways of monarch butterflies. It's really -- it's kind of cool. 00:05:07 John Donvan: But if you come to a point -- Bill Nye: But it took weeks. John Donvan: Well -- Bill Nye: It took months -- John Donvan: And if you come to a point sort of intellectually, emotionally, and psychologically, where you're saying, "I was wrong. That means I was an idiot." Bill Nye: No, I -- there's other reasons that I think I'm an idiot. John Donvan: Okay. Intelligence Squared U.S. 5 01/23/2020 Bill Nye: Yeah, yeah. John Donvan: How -- but how -- Bill Nye: There's a lot of evidence -- I think people who know me. John Donvan: The process of letting go of an idea. Bill Nye: Oh, it's -- you don't do it in a weekend. It takes quite a while. But it was Intelligence Squared that changed my mind. So, thank you. John Donvan: And so, my other question -- the second part of that question – [applause] The other part of the question is, so, for a lay audience who won't have the chance to go visit headquarters, et cetera -- again, we have an hour, hour-and-fifteen-minutes tonight -- how do we listen to these arguments? How do we judge the quality of the arguments that are being made when science comes into it? What do we -- what should we be listening for? Bill Nye: Well, it's -- John Donvan: In general. Bill Nye: I mean, to me, science is a discipline, and it's a habit of mind that is really -- takes -- takes years of messing with it to overcome. 00:06:09 You know, we have this expression, "confirmation bias," where you have a belief. You see something that confirms it, and you embrace that. You see something that would -- if there's a verb "disconfirm" it, or "deny" it, and you push that away -- so, it -- in science, we do our best to be objective. Now humans are doing it, so there's going to be humans involved. But the idea is to evaluate evidence -- the modern word we use is critical, to think critically about evidence. It's a habit of mind that takes a long time. I'm a mechanical engineer. And you know, Intelligence Squared U.S. 6 01/23/2020 when you -- if the car doesn't stop with the -- when the brakes are applied, then there's something wrong with the brakes, people. We've got to address this. You can't ignore it. And so, tonight, I'm -- I am doing my best to be agnostic. I want to hear what these people have to say about nuclear power, I'll tell you. John Donvan: What are you going to be listening for? Bill Nye: There's a couple things that everybody wonders about -- is what are we going to do -- I'll save that one. But first of all, is it safe? Writ large, is nuclear power safe? And then, what are we going to do with nuclear waste? 00:07:15 Is there a good place to put nuclear waste? Everybody wants to know that. Do you want it in your neighborhood or the other guy's neighborhood? And then, there are extraordinary claims about how much it costs on both sides. Some people say it's very expensive. Some people say it's very cheap. And I'd like to hear -- I'm very interested in hearing what the two sides have to say about this. John Donvan: Could we take a little step back? You mentioned you were a mechanical engineer.
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