Draft Working Paper No. 1 INVENTORY OF EXISTING CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS OF AVIATION ACTIVITY
San Manuel Airport Layout Plan PREPARED BY: Update & Narrative Report SAN MANUEL, ARIZONA | AUGUST 2020 DRAFT Airport Layout Plan Update Narrative Report - Working Paper No.1 Prepared for: San Manuel Airport (E77) San Manuel, Pinal County, Arizona
August 2020
Prepared by:
7878 North 16th Street Suite 300 Phoenix, Arizona 85020 P. 602.957.1155 F. 602.957.2838 www.dibblecorp.com Dibble Project No. 1016114.02 SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT
Table of Contents
Section 1— Introduction ______1–1 1.1 Background ______1–1 1.2 ALP Update Narrative Report Objective ______1–3 Section 2— Inventory of Existing Conditions ______2–1 2.1 Airport Service Level and Role ______2–1 2.2 Federal and State Grant Histories ______2–2 2.3 Airport Design Standards ______2–2 2.4 Airside Inventory ______2–7 2.5 Landside Inventory ______2–11 2.6 Airport Environs ______2–16 2.7 Summary of Non-Standard Conditions ______2–19 Section 3— Forecasts of Aviation Activity______3–1 3.1 Review of Current Activity ______3–1 3.2 Summary of Existing Forecasts ______3–3 3.3 ALP Update Recommended Forecast ______3–8 3.4 Based Aircraft Forecast ______3–8 3.5 Annual Operations Forecast ______3–10 3.6 Peak Activity ______3–11 3.7 Summary of Preferred Forecasts ______3–12 3.8 Critical Aircraft Determination ______3–14
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List of Tables Table 2-1 FAA and ADOT 5-year Grant Histories ...... 2–2 Table 2-2 FAA AAC/ADG Characteristics ...... 2–3 Table 2-3 Runway Design Code Components ...... 2–4 Table 2-4 Existing Runway Dimensional Standards ...... 2–7 Table 2-5 Existing Runway Data Table ...... 2–8 Table 2-6 Existing Taxiway Data Table ...... 2–9 Table 2-7 Visual NAVAIDs ...... 2–10 Table 2-8 Existing 14 CFR Part 77 Imaginary Surfaces ...... 2–16 Table 2-9 Non-Standard Conditions – 2015 Airport Master Plan ...... 2–19 Table 3-1 Existing Based Aircraft and Annual Operations (Baseline) ...... 3–3 Table 3-2 Based Aircraft Forecast ...... 3–8 Table 3-3 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast ...... 3–10 Table 3-4 Annual GA Operations Forecast ...... 3–11 Table 3-5 San Manuel Airport Peak Activity Forecast ...... 3–12 Table 3-6 Preferred Forecasts (PF)/TAF Forecast Comparison (2020-2040) ...... 3–13
List of Figures Figure 1-1 Airport Location and Vicinity Map...... 1–2 Figure 2-1 Northwest Taxiway A Pavement Cracks ...... 2–9 Figure 2-2 Airport Inventory Map ...... 2–15 Figure 2-3 14 CFR Part 77 Imaginary Surfaces ...... 2–17 Figure 2-4 Existing Zoning and Land Use ...... 2–18 Figure 3-1 2015 AMP Forecast Summary ...... 3–4 Figure 3-2 Based Aircraft Forecasts for San Manuel Airport (2020-2040) ...... 3–6 Figure 3-3 Annual Operations Forecasts for San Manuel Airport (2020-2040) ...... 3–6 Figure 3-4 Existing Based Aircraft Fleet Mix ...... 3–9
Appendices Appendix A Reserved Appendix B San Manuel Airport Peak Activity Calculations
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Section 1— Introduction
1.1 Background The rural community of San Manuel is a census-designated place (CDP) in Pinal County, Arizona located 45 miles northeast of Tucson on State Highway 76 (south of Highway 77 between Mammoth and Oracle). The community itself dates to 1881 when the first copper mines were opened. However, it wasn’t until the Magma Copper Company began operation in 1944 that the need for employee housing and other services in the near vicinity developed. After completion of the master-planned community constructed by Del E. Webb Construction Co., the town was officially founded in 1953. All mining and smelter operations ceased in 2003. According to the 2010 Census, the town’s population was 3,551 at that time. Today the area is enjoyed for its local recreational activities, such as hunting, hiking, and off-roading; the area is also a popular retirement community.
The San Manuel Airport (E77) is located two miles north of the community of San Manuel at the intersection of Highway 76 and Avenida de Aviacion. The Airport is a general aviation (GA), public- use facility owned and operated by the Pinal County Airport Economic Development Department. It is one of two airports owned and operated by Pinal County; they also oversee Pinal Airpark approximately 40 miles to the southwest. The Airport property encompasses approximately 176acres. Figure 1-1 depicts the Airport’s location within Arizona and its vicinity to San Manuel within Pinal County.
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Figure 1-1 Airport Location and Vicinity Map
Source: Dibble Engineering, June 2020
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1.2 ALP Update Narrative Report Objective The San Manuel Airport (the Airport or E77) underwent a comprehensive airport master planning process that began in 2014 and ended in April 2015 with the final publication of the San Manuel Airport Master Plan. As a part of the Airport Master Plan (AMP), an updated Airport Layout Plan (ALP) depicting proposed future development was included within the report. The future development shown in the ALP was based upon the forecasted need and existing facilities and services that were available at the Airport at that time.
A typical master plan outlines the future development of an airport, and includes several components: identification of existing conditions, forecasting, determining facility requirements, development alternatives analysis, recommended improvements, and capital improvement schedules and funding mechanisms and can also include a significant public involvement program. Airport master plans are typically updated by airport sponsors every 10-12 years, and because of their complexity can often take up to two years to complete.
An ALP documents the Master Plan’s recommended improvements over time, and as such, is used as a planning and funding tool by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to prioritize and plan for funding of airport capital improvement projects at airports over a 20-year planning horizon. Thus, any airport that uses FAA Airport Capital Improvement (AIP) funding are bound by Federal Grant Assurance 29 under the Airport and Airway Improvement Act of 1982 which requires an airport keep its ALP updated at all times. For example, recently completed construction projects that change the geometry of the airfield, the addition of a new facility, or the acquisition of land into airport property, would warrant an update to the ALP. Other instances that may facilitate a change on the ALP include proposed development depicted on the plan that either is no longer considered necessary to meet the forecasted aviation demand or no longer meets updated FAA design criteria.
Six years have passed since the AMP’s aviation demand forecasts for the Airport were under development, and in that time the Airport has not experienced a significant amount of change in its aviation activity. The 2015 AMP forecasts that ultimately determined the future development needs at the Airport suggested that an extension to the runway would be needed within the planning horizon to accommodate an increase in operations by larger turboprop and small corporate jet aircraft. Current data shows that there has not been an increase in these larger category aircraft, and the County does not see that changing any time in the near future. The County is wholly committed to supporting the aviation activity that currently takes place by a steadfast base of long-time tenants and other users of the Airport and accommodating the unique growth those activities bring. As such, the County’s vision for the Airport’s future development has shifted from the vision that was presented within the 2015 AMP and on the ALP.
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This ALP Update Narrative Report provides revised aviation demand forecasts and facility requirements through the next 20 years, reflecting the County’s shifted focus for the Airport. It assesses requirements for the airside (runway, taxiways, safety and object free areas, runway protection zones, and navigational aids) and landside (aprons, vehicle access roads, vehicle parking, fuel facilities, airport utilities, aircraft maintenance areas, and buildings that are within the County’s control) based on existing conditions of these facilities and future demand. A recommended capital improvement program and funding sources are provided to assist with the County’s financial planning. Lastly, this Narrative Report includes a revised ALP drawing set the FAA will consult for future development AIP funding and sequencing.
Photo Credit: Dibble Engineering, May 2020
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Section 2— Inventory of Existing Conditions
This chapter is the outcome of a thorough review of the Airport’s pertinent background data, as well as a physical inventory of its airside and landside components and facilities. Additionally, a summary of the Airport’s conformance to FAA design standards is provided. Documenting an airport’s existing conditions serves as the baseline for subsequent chapters, such as the forecast of aviation demand and facility requirements.
2.1 Airport Service Level and Role Since 1970, the FAA has classified the subset of public-use airports in the United States as being vital to serving the public needs for air transportation, either directly or indirectly, and therefore they could be made eligible for federal funding to maintain their facilities. These airports are classified within the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS), where the airport service level reflects the type of public use the airport provides. The service level also reflects the funding categories established by Congress to assist in airport development. The service level categories listed in the NPIAS include commercial service – either primary or nonprimary, reliever, or general aviation.
According to the NPIAS, 2019-2023, Report to Congress, dated October 2018, there are 3,321 NPIAS airports in the U.S.; Arizona has a total of 59 NPIAS airports. San Manuel falls within the General Aviation (GA) category. The category in which an airport belongs describes the type of service it provides and represent funding categories for the distribution of federal aid. Additionally, airports within the GA category are further divided based on current activity measures. According to the current NPIAS report, San Manuel Airport belongs in the “Unclassified” category of GA airports. The FAA defines this category as an airport that “provides access to the aviation system.”
At the state level, the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) Multimodal Planning Division – Aeronautics Group has long recognized the importance of planning as a proactive approach to ensure aviation continues its critical role in the statewide transportation system. They created a similar plan to the FAA’s NPIAS in 1978 called the State Airports System Plan (SASP). The purpose of the SASP is to provide a framework for the integrated planning, operation, and development of Arizona’s aviation assets. An updated version of the SASP was published in October 2018 and includes 67 airports.
Like the FAA NPIAS categories and roles, the Arizona SASP also classifies airports based on their services provided and role in the state. According to the 2018 SASP, San Manuel is classified as a GA- Rural airport. Qualifications for this role include having at least 2,500 operations per year, or 10 based aircraft and providing Jet A and/or 100LL aviation fuel.
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2.2 Federal and State Grant Histories Since the last AMP, Pinal County has received only one grant from the FAA through the Airport Improvement Program (AIP) for the development of the Airport. The AIP is funded through the Aviation Trust Fund which was established in 1970 to provide funding for eligible projects as defined in the AIP Handbook.
Similarly, ADOT’s Multimodal Planning Division – Aeronautics Group develops the Five-Year Airport Capital Improvement Program (ACIP) to parallel the FAA’s AIP funding. The ACIP development process allocates money from the State Aviation Fund and distributes these funds across three major categories of airport development assistance – the Airport Development Grant Program, Airport Preventive Maintenance System (APMS), and the Airport Loan Program. The FAA and ADOT grants from 2014 through 2018 are summarized in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1 FAA and ADOT 5-year Grant Histories Fiscal Year Grant Federal State Local Total Project Description (FFY/SFY) Number Amount Amount Amount Amount 3-04-0080- FFY2018 Land Acquisition $281,110 $13,799.27 $13,799.27 $308,708.54 007-2018 SFYXX E5S2V Ramp Reconstruction - $724,500 $80,500 $805,000 Obstruction SFYXX E6S1W - $135,000 $15,000 $150,000 Mitigation Design Obstruction SFYXX E0S2Y01C Mitigation - $315,000 $35,000 $350,000 Construction Abbreviations: FFY= Federal Fiscal Year, SFY= State Fiscal Year Notes: For FAA AIP grants, the grant data are generated at the end of each fiscal year and will not reflect subsequent grant amendments. This data will not reflect any funding or project amendments. Source: FAA, 2020; Airport management, 2020
2.3 Airport Design Standards Airport design standards provide basic guidelines for a safe, efficient, and economic airport system. The standards are established to meet the size and performance characteristics of aircraft that are anticipated to use an airport. Various elements of airport infrastructure and their functions are also covered by these standards. This section will summarize the existing safety and other critical areas found at the Airport based on its current airfield configuration and design aircraft.
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Design Aircraft According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, planning a new airport or making improvements to an existing airport requires the selection of one or more “design aircraft1.” The design aircraft (for the purpose of airport geometric design) can be classified by the parameters: . Aircraft Approach Category (AAC) . Airplane Design Group (ADG) . Taxiway Design Group (TDG)
The AAC relates to aircraft approach speed (operational characteristic) and is represented by the letter A through E. The ADG relates to the aircraft wingspan or tail height (physical characteristic) and is represented by the Roman numeral I through VI. The TDG is based on an aircraft’s landing gear, and specifically the main gear width and the distance from the cockpit to the main gear. The characteristics of the AAC and ADG are summarized in Table 2-2.
Table 2-2 FAA AAC/ADG Characteristics Aircraft Approach Category Approach Speed Category A Less than 91 knots Category B 91 to 120 knots Category C 121 to 140 knots Category D 141 to 165 knots Category E 165 knots or more Airplane Design Group Wingspan Tail Height Group I < 49 feet < 20 feet Group II 49 to 78 feet 20 to 29 feet Group III 79 to 117 feet 30 to 44 feet Group IV 118 to 170 feet 45 to 59 feet Group V 171 to 213 feet 60 to 65 feet Group VI 214 to 261 feet 66 to 79 feet Source: FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, 2014
1 The term “design aircraft” is also synonymous with critical aircraft and critical design aircraft according to FAA AC 150/5000-17, Critical Aircraft and Regular Use Determination.
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For the selection of a design aircraft, the FAA requires that the most demanding aircraft, or family of aircraft, which conducts at least 500 operations per year at the airport be selected as the design aircraft. Additionally, when an airport has more than one active runway, a design aircraft is typically selected for each runway. According to the most current approved ALP dated April 2015, the existing design aircraft for Runway 11/29 is the: . Cessna 414A Chancellor
Using the AAC/ADG classifications, the Cessna 414A is categorized as B-I and falls within TDG 2. One outcome of this ALP Update effort will be to validate the existing design aircraft for the runway and if needed, recommend revision to another design aircraft that meets current criteria using available data.
Runway Design Code When the AAC, ADG, and approach visibility minimums for a runway are combined, they form the runway design code (RDC). The RDC provides the information needed to determine certain design standards that apply to a runway. The visibility minimums are expressed by runway visual range (RVR) values in feet of 1,200, 1,600, 2,400, 4,000, and 5,000. If a runway is only used for visual approaches, the term “VIS” should appear as the third component. The RDC visibility categories translated to an RVR value are illustrated in Table 2-3.
Table 2-3 Runway Design Code Components Runway Visual Flight Visibility Category (Statute Mile) Range (ft) VIS Visual approach only 5000 Not lower than 1 mile 4000 Lower than 1 mile but not lower than 3/4 mile 2400 Lower than 3/4 mile, but not lower than 1/2 mile (CAT-I PA) 1600 Lower than 1/2 mile, but not lower than 1/4 mile (CAT-II PA) 1200 Lower than 1/4 mile (CAT-III PA) Source: FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, 2014
Based on the existing critical aircraft and visibility minimums, the RDC for the runway at E77 is as follows: . Runway 11/29: B-I/VIS
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Taxiway Design Group The taxiway design group (TDG) design standards are based on the overall main gear width (MGW) and the cockpit-to-main gear (CMG) distance of the critical aircraft for the runway(s) at an airport. The TDG is used to determine a minimum width and the intersection fillet standards of taxiways for an airport’s critical aircraft. The existing taxiways at the Airport are 35 feet in width, and therefore meet TDG 2 width standards.
Airport Reference Code The ARC is not a design standard, rather it is an airport designation that signifies the airport’s highest Runway Design Code (RDC) minus the third (visibility) component. The ARC is used for planning purposes only and does not limit the aircraft that may be able to operate safely on the airport. According to the current ALP, the existing ARC for the Airport is B-I.
Safety Areas Runway and Taxiway Safety Areas (RSAs and TSAs) are defined as surfaces surrounding the runway and taxiway intended specifically to reduce the risk of damage to aircraft in the event of an undershot, overshot, or excursion from the runway or taxiway. The safety areas must be: . Cleared and graded and have no potentially hazardous surface variations, . Drained to prevent water accumulation, . Capable, under dry conditions, of supporting snow removal equipment, aircraft res- cue and firefighting (ARFF) equipment, and the occasional passage of aircraft with- out causing structural damage to the aircraft, and . Free of objects, except for objects that need to be in the runway or taxiway safety area because of their function.
All Runway Safety Areas at the Airport are in good condition and meet FAA standards. Likewise, the Taxiway and Taxilane Safety Areas were reviewed, and no apparent deficiencies were identified. Some small brush was noted near the edge of the RSA at the Runway 11 end, but nothing too
Obstacle Free Zone and Object Free Area significant. The brush will be removed during the next maintenance cycle. The Obstacle Free Zone (OFZ) is a three-dimensional volume of airspace which supports the transition of ground-to-airborne aircraft operations. The clearing standard precludes taxiing (while the runway is in use) and parked airplanes and object penetrations, except for frangible visual navigational aids (NAVAIDs) that need to be in the OFZ because of their function. The OFZ represents the volume of space longitudinally centered on the runway. The Runway Object Free Area (ROFA) is a two-dimensional ground area surrounding the runway. The ROFA standard also
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precludes parked airplanes, agricultural operations and objects, except for those needed within the ROFA for air navigation or aircraft ground maneuvering purposes. The dimensional standards for each of these protection areas varies with a runway’s RDC.
The OFZ and ROFA for Runway 11/29 at the Airport currently meet FAA design standards. See Table 2-4 for a summary of the safety area dimensional standards as they currently exist at the Airport today.
Runway Protection Zone The Runway Protection Zone (RPZ) is trapezoidal in shape and centered about the extended runway centerline. Like the other safety areas, the RPZ dimension for a runway end is a function of the critical aircraft and approach visibility minimums associated with that runway end (See Table 2-4). Additionally, the FAA issued a memorandum on September 27, 2012, regarding land uses within an RPZ. The memorandum outlines interim policy guidance to address what constitutes a compatible land use and how to evaluate proposed land uses that would reside in an RPZ. The land uses currently not recommended by the FAA to be within the RPZ include residences and places of public assembly (churches, schools, hospitals, office buildings, shopping centers, and other uses with similar concentrations of persons typifying places of public assembly). Currently, all RPZs associated with the runway ends at the Airport are located on existing airport property and the surrounding land uses on adjacent property are compatible with airport operations. The FAA also recommends the Sponsor control the RPZs through fee simple ownership, or avigation easements, thus any future RPZ for the Airport’s runway that are not on existing property should also be acquired in these manners to comply with the FAA directive.
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Table 2-4 Existing Runway Dimensional Standards
Design Standard Runway 11/29 Runway Design Code (RDC) B-I/VIS Runway Safety Area (RSA) width 120 RSA length beyond departure end 240 Runway Object Free Area (ROFA) width 400 ROFA length beyond runway end 240 Runway Obstacle Free Zone (ROFZ) width 250 ROFZ length beyond runway end 200 Approach/Departure Runway Protection Zone2 1,000 x 500 x 700 (Length x inner width x outer width) Runway centerline to: Holding position 200 Parallel taxiway/taxilane centerline 2403 Aircraft parking area 3104 Notes: 1 All dimensions are in feet. 2 The RPZ surface begins 200 feet from the end of the runway threshold. 3 Existing separation distance exceeds the minimum standard of 225 feet. 4 Existing separation distance exceeds the minimum standard of 200 feet. Source: San Manuel Airport Layout Plan, April 2015; FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, 2014
2.4 Airside Inventory The portions of the airfield that are considered airside include such components as runways, taxiways, navigational and weather equipment, lighting, and signage. Furthermore, it is the area where aviation-specific operational activities take place. Characteristics of the airside components at the Airport are described in the following sections.
Runway The Airport has one paved asphalt runway (Runway 11/29) that serves single-engine and light twin- engine aircraft and occasionally turboprop aircraft. Overall, the runway is in good condition based on observations from the on-site inventory. Table 2-5 summarizes the key characteristics of Runway 11/29.
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Table 2-5 Existing Runway Data Table
Runway Characteristic Runway 11/29 Length (feet) 4,207 Width (feet) 75 Pavement Surface Type Asphalt Pavement Strength (1,000 lbs.) Single-Wheel – 12.0 Condition of Runway Good Pavement Condition Index (PCI) 85 out of 100 Gradient (effective) -0.515% Marking/Condition Basic (both)/Good (both)
Lighting/Visual Aids MIRL/PAPI & REIL (both ends) Distance Remaining Signs/Condition Both directions/Good Acronyms: MIRL = Medium Intensity Runway Lighting; PAPI = Precision Approach Path Indicator; REIL= Runway End Identifier Lights Source: San Manuel ALP, April 2015; ADOT APMS database, May 2017; FAA Airport Master Record, Form 5010-1, April 23, 2020
According to the ADOT Airport Pavement Management System (APMS) online database, the last major maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) on Runway 11/29 occurred in June 2014. According to the Airport Manager, Runway 11/29 is scheduled for a mill and overlay in 2021 as part of ADOT’s Arizona Pavement Preservation Program (APPP). In addition to the pavement, the markings, lighting, and NAVAIDS are all in good condition. However, although the REILS at both ends are functional, each light lens has had lighting components come free and will likely need replacement in the short-term. The runway is also equipped with lighted runway distance remaining signs; they are in good condition.
Taxiways The taxiway system at the Airport consists of a full parallel taxiway (Taxiway A) and five connecting taxiway segments that provide access to the runway. There is a sixth taxiway connector to the Runway 29 end not connected to the main taxiway system, but it is used exclusively by the tenants located directly north of the runway in that area. Although it is not in as good of a condition as the rest of the taxiway system, it is still usable. Airport management has no plans to maintain it at this time, as it will eventually be removed to allow for the future Taxiway A extension to the Runway 29 end. Taxiway A has no edge lighting but does have elevated retro-reflector stakes to mark the edge of the taxiway. The taxiways are also equipped with lighted directional, location, and mandatory instruction signs at each intersection leading to the runway. Table 2-6 describes the taxiways and their characteristics.
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Table 2-6 Existing Taxiway Data Table Taxiway Data Taxiway A Taxiway A1 – A5 Type Parallel Connector Taxiway width (feet) 35 35 Taxiway Design Group (TDG) 2 2 Pavement Surface Type Asphalt Concrete Pavement Strength Single Wheel – 12,000 pounds Condition of Taxiway Good1 Good Lighting2 None None Marking/Signage Centerline/Yes - lit Centerline/Yes - lit Notes: 1 Except for the portion between connector A2 and the end of the taxiway – this section is in fair condition and needs rehabilitation. 2 No taxiway edge lighting is present, but there are retro-reflector markers placed along the taxiway edge. Source: San Manuel ALP, April 2015; FAA Airport Master Record, Form 5010-1, April 23, 2020
According to the ADOT Airport Pavement Management System online database, taxiway connectors A1 through A5 were last rehabilitated with the runway in 2014. Based on the latest inspection data, all connectors have a PCI rating of 85 out of 100; they are in overall good condition. The last major M&R on parallel Taxiway A (approximately 12,850 square yards) occurred in June 2012, except for a small section (approximately 330 square yards) beginning just prior to Taxiway Connector A2 through the end of the taxiway to the northwest. This section is in fair condition with multiple lateral and longitudinal cracks (see Figure 2-1).
Figure 2-1 Northwest Taxiway A Pavement Cracks
Source: Dibble Engineering, May 2020
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Navigational Aids Other key airside components include electronic or visual navigational aids (NAVAIDs). A NAVAID is any structure, equipment, or infrastructure used to assist or guide pilots navigating to the airfield and runway. This includes landing instrumentation, runway marking, lighting, and other visual aids. The Airport currently has no published instrument approach procedures, and thus no landing instrumentation or radio NAVAIDs are located on the airfield. The closest radio NAVAID is the Tucson VORTAC2 located approximately 35 miles to the southwest. All approaches to the runways are visual, with a standard left traffic pattern to Runway 11 and right traffic pattern to Runway 29. A summary of the visual NAVAIDs for the Airport are listed in Table 2-7.
Table 2-7 Visual NAVAIDs NAVAID Location Condition Medium Intensity Runway Lights (MIRL) Runway 11/29 edge Good Precision Approach Path Indicator (PAPI) Runway 11/29 Good (2-box) Runway End Identifier Lights (REIL) Runway 11/29 threshold Good Runway marking – Basic Runway 11/29 pavement Good Taxiway marking – Centerline & hold position Taxiway A and connectors Good Rotating beacon South-central airfield Good Primary wind cone (lighted) South-central airfield Good Segmented circle South-central airfield Good Auxiliary wind cones Northwest/Southeast airfield Good Source: San Manuel ALP, April 2015; On-site inventory observations, May 2020
Weather Monitoring Equipment Automated airport weather stations are automated sensor suites which are designed to serve aviation and meteorological observing needs for safe and efficient aviation operations, weather forecasting, and climatology. There are several types of automated airport weather reporting stations. These include the Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS), the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and the Automated Weather Sensor System (AWSS).
The Airport has an AWOS located on the south-central area of the airfield, south of Runway 11/29 and the drainage channel. This system generally reports the following parameters: barometric pressure, altimeter setting, wind speed and direction, temperature and dew point in degrees Celsius, density altitude, visibility, and cloud ceiling, while also having the additional capabilities of reporting temperature and dew point in degrees Fahrenheit, present weather, icing, lightning, sea level pressure
2 VORTAC stands for VHF Omni-directional Range/Tactical Air Navigation. It provides a VOR azimuth, tactical air navigation (TACAN) azimuth, and TACAN distance at one site using multiple operating frequencies and antennas.
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and precipitation accumulation. Data is disseminated via an automated VHF air band radio frequency (108-137 MHz) at each airport, broadcasting the automated weather observation.
At E77 the AWOS broadcasts on 134.125 MHz. The land line number for the AWOS is (520) 385- 4238. According to the 2015 AMP, the AWOS was installed in 2011. It is in good condition based on a recent site visit. However, the Airport Manager reports that due to the outdated operating system, the AWOS does not report its data to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This can be corrected with an upgrade to the operating system software and hardware.
Vehicle Service Road Many airports have vehicle service roads (VSRs) that are either paved, unpaved, or a combination of both, that traverse near the movement and non-movement areas of the airfield in order for airport, emergency, and other authorized personnel to access these areas by vehicle. The Airport has a VSR, totaling approximately 6,700 linear feet according to the 2015 AMP. The VSR is unpaved dirt and gravel. The VSR can be accessed from the main aircraft parking apron midfield or from the Airport’s main entrance road via a secured gate at the southeast of the property. The VSR is in overall good condition.
2.5 Landside Inventory For planning purposes, the definition of landside is that portion of the airport designed to serve passengers or other airport users typically located outside of the movement areas; landside facilities include aircraft parking aprons and storage hangars, passenger terminal buildings or other general aviation (GA) facilities, and other buildings where aviation (or non-aviation) related activities are conducted.
Aircraft Parking Apron There is one main aircraft parking apron at the Airport located north of Runway 11/29 and Taxiway A at midfield. According to the 2017 ADOT APMS inspection report, the apron encompasses approximately 11,260 square yards of Asphalt Concrete pavement. The apron’s last major M&R occurred in November of 2015, and its PCI rating is listed as 94 out of 100.
There are 15 aircraft parking spots with tie-downs (two rows – one with seven spaces and one with eight). Airport management reports that one of these spaces is leased to a based tenant, while the rest are open for transient aircraft. Taxilane markings are located on either side and between the two rows and are in good condition. Furthermore, the taxilanes meet the separation standards for ADG I aircraft regarding distance from taxiway centerline to parallel taxilane centerline, and taxilane to fixed or movable object.
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Airport Administration & Pilot Visitor’s Lounge Adjacent to the main aircraft parking apron is the Airport’s administration building (used by County airport personnel); this building also serves as the Airport’s pilot/visitor lounge. The building was constructed in 2014 and is approximately 1,500 square feet in size. The building includes a large lobby, meeting room, two offices, a restroom, and a storage room. A large water tank adjacent to the building provides the building with water for the restroom and is maintained by the Pinal County Public Works Department. The overall condition of the building is good.
Aircraft Hangars There are various types and sizes of aircraft storage hangars found at airports. Hangars at the Airport include three common-wall, nested T-hangar structures, one single-aircraft T-hangar, and one conventional (box) hangar. T-hangars generally hold one aircraft, while box hangars can hold multiple aircraft.
County-owned T-hangars include the two steel-sided, steel-framed structures located to the northwest of the aircraft parking apron. There are 10 units (five per side) in each structure and each is approximately 12,500 square feet in size. All hangars are currently leased, and the County maintains an active hangar waiting list for those wishing to store their aircraft at the Airport in the future when a unit becomes available.3 There is a small office/storage room at the southeast end of each structure. These hangars are in good condition. The apron and taxilanes surrounding these hangar buildings are constructed of Asphalt Concrete pavement and are in good condition. The 2017 ADOT inspection report states this pavement encompasses roughly 7,000 square yards and has a current PCI rating of 94 out of 100. This pavement was last rehabilitated in November 2015.
The remaining common-wall T-hangar is privately owned and located on the southeast area of the airfield just north of the Runway 29 end. There are eight storage bays within the unit. The overall condition of this hangar is good. The 2015 AMP noted that this structure is within the Building Restriction Line (BRL)4 for the airport and was identified for future removal. The plan is still to relocate the structure at some point in the future.
Lastly, just north of the private T-hangar, there is a privately-owned multi-aircraft conventional hangar and two single-aircraft T-hangars. These also have been at the Airport for many years and are both in fair condition. Both are constructed of steel.
3 As of March 2020, there are 25 individuals on the Airport’s hangar wait list. 4 The FAA defines the BRL as an imaginary line which identifies suitable building area locations on an airport’s ALP.
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Aviation Fuel Facilities The Airport has one, 12,000-gallon above-ground, double-walled fuel storage tank which contains 100LL aviation fuel. The tank is owned and operated by the County. It was placed at the Airport in 2003. Pilots may access the self-serve fuel 24-hours a day with the system’s credit card reader. Other components include the pump and a fire extinguishing station. Overall, the tank and its related components are in good condition.
Airport Access and Vehicle Parking There is only one main entrance road to the Airport – Avenida de Aviacion, which is accessed from State Route (SR) 76. The road is paved with two lanes. The road is approximately 4,600 linear feet; from the SR 76, the road travels northeasterly, and then heads north where it ends at the Airport’s vehicle parking area. The pavement and markings are in very good condition.
There is a small vehicle parking lot adjacent to the airport administration/pilot lounge building approximately 6,500 square feet in size. The lot is mainly used by visitors and County personnel. It is unpaved gravel and in good condition. Tenants typically park their vehicles in front of their hangars (on the secured area of airport) when they are out with their aircraft. There is one automatic vehicle gate at the far end of the parking area that provides tenants and other authorized personnel access to the aircraft apron and County hangars. The gate is in good condition.
Utilities and Services Utilities at the Airport include electricity, telephone, WiFi hotspot, and water and sewer services. The service provider for each is listed below: . Electricity: APS . Telephone: Century Link . Water/Sewer: Pinal County Public Works . WiFi Hotspot: Verizon
Emergency services are provided by Rural Metro Fire Station 73, located in nearby Mammoth, Arizona.
Perimeter Fencing and Gates Fencing at the Airport is a mixture of four-strand barbed wire around most of the perimeter, and some 6-foot high chain-link fencing in the administration building area. The Airport is scheduled to have additional 6-foot high fencing with wildlife protection installed on the property line adjacent to Highway 76 in the near future. The fencing in the public access areas such as near the hangars and administration building is in good condition.
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Miscellaneous Facilities
Electrical Vault The Airport’s electrical vault and equipment were constructed and installed in 2013 and are in good condition. The vault is located on the northwest side of the County owned T-hangar structure closest to Runway 11/29 and is approximately 75-square feet in size.
Drainage Channel In 2000, a flood-control drainage channel was constructed on the southern and southeastern area near the airfield to protect the Airport from storm water runoff. The width of the channel varies from 30 to 60 feet depending on location. Overall, the drainage channel functions as designed and is in good condition. Some brush has accumulated within the channel, but the County will be clearing it during the Airport’s next maintenance cycle.
The airfield is periodically affected by storm run-off during large thunderstorms or during the summer monsoons. Because of current drainage patterns, water will periodically flow perpendicular to Taxiway A and erode soil in places. Likewise, water drains downhill from Taxiway Connector A6 and into the adjacent hangars, often flooding them. Airport management indicated that the last Drainage Master Plan for the Airport was completed in the early 2000’s. It is recommended that a new drainage master plan be conducted in the short-to-mid-term of the planning period in order to assess how current drainage patterns may impact future development and if mitigation of the current drainage issues will need to be put in place prior to any costly construction.
Mobile Home Residence As noted in the 2015 AMP, a privately-owned mobile home that used to be the Airport Manager’s residence many years ago is located in the southeast corner of the airfield adjacent to the private T- hangar structure. The mobile home is in poor condition and is still planned for future removal as outlined in the AMP. According to the Airport Manager, it will be removed by the end of 2020.
The location of the Airport’s airside and landside components described above are illustrated in Figure 2-2.
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ROTATING BEACON AIRCRAFT PARKING APRON AIRPORT ADMINISTRATION AUTOMATED VEHICLE AWOS - III SEGMENTED CIRCLE ELECTRICAL VAULT ENTRANCE ROAD COUNTY HANGARS PILOT LOUNGE ACCESS GATE PRIMARY WIND CONE
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: h t a P t n e PRIVATE HANGARS PRIVATE HANGARS TAXIWAY A RETROREFLECTORS FUEL FACILITY m u c o D SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT
2.6 Airport Environs This section describes the existing and planned land uses, zoning, and other FAA protected surfaces on and adjacent to the Airport. Designating land use and zoning on, adjacent to, and in the proximity of an airport is an important task for airport sponsors. Typical land use compatibility considerations include safety, height hazards, and noise exposure, all of which sponsors should address when designating land use and zoning ordinances on and around airports within their jurisdiction. Likewise, future planned uses are important to review in order to ensure the County’s land-use planning efforts prevent incompatible land use in the vicinity of the Airport. Finally, both existing and future land uses should take into consideration the imaginary protective airspace surfaces designated for runways contained within Title 14, Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR), Part 77 Safe, Efficient Use, and Preservation of Navigable Airspace.
14 CFR Part 77 Imaginary Surfaces The 14 CFR Part 77 regulation establishes several imaginary surfaces that are used as a guide to provide a safe and unobstructed operating environment for aviation. These surfaces, which are typical for civilian airports, are shown in Figure 2-3. The primary, approach, transitional, horizontal, and conical surfaces identified in 14 CFR Part 77 are applied to each runway at both existing and new airports on the basis of the type of approach procedure available or planned for that runway and the specific 14 CFR Part 77 runway category criteria. The runway at E77 is classified as a utility runway, meaning it is designed to accommodate aircraft that weigh less than 12,500 pounds.
The 14 CFR Part 77 imaginary surfaces depicted in Table 2-8 represent the existing dimensions for the Airport. These surfaces will be used to identify any existing or potential obstacles depending on the planned development at the Airport. Any changes to the existing dimensions based on the selection of a different RDC for the Airport will be noted on the Airport Data Table included on the Airport Layout Plan set.
Table 2-8 Existing 14 CFR Part 77 Imaginary Surfaces Imaginary Surface Runway 11/29 Primary Surface width 250 Primary Surface beyond runway end 200 Radius of Horizontal Surface 5,000 Approach Surface 250 x 5,000 x 1,250 (inner width x length x outer width) Approach Surface slope 20:1 Transitional Surface slope 7:1 Conical Surface slope 20:1 Note: All dimensions are in feet. Source: 14 CFR, Part 77 Safe, Efficient Use, and Preservation of Navigable Airspace, 2020; San Manuel ALP, April 2015
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Figure 2-3 14 CFR Part 77 Imaginary Surfaces
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Order JO 7400.2H, Procedures for Handling Airspace Matters, August 2011
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Existing Zoning and Land Use The Airport and the surrounding land are currently zoned as General Rural. Other zoning districts in the near vicinity of the Airport include Industrial, Light Industrial, and Manufactured Home Park. It should be noted that the Manufactured Home Park district is located several miles southeast of the Airport itself. Figure 2-4 illustrates the existing Pinal County zoning and land use on and near the Airport. Figure 2-4 Existing Zoning and Land Use
Source: Dibble Engineering, July 2020
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2.7 Summary of Non-Standard Conditions The Airport’s 2015 Master Plan and ALP identified several non-standard conditions that existed on the airfield. A summary of the deviations is listed in Table 2-9. For the purpose of this ALP Update, a review of these non-standard conditions was conducted in order to verify if the conditions still exist or if any have been corrected. The review occurred during an on-site visit conducted as a part of the inventory process and from discussions with Airport management.
Table 2-9 Non-Standard Conditions – 2015 Airport Master Plan Proposed Current Status Standard Deviation Description Mitigation (2020) Design Existing hangars, mobile complete; No buildings allowed within home, and out buildings Remove Buildings scheduled for the BRL within the BRL Aug/Sept 2020 construction Design Penetrations to transitional Remove and/or complete; No penetrations to 14 CFR and approach surfaces Mitigate scheduled for Part 77 airspace (various) Obstructions1 Aug/Sep 2020 construction Terrain penetrations to No penetrations to 14 CFR FAA Airspace horizontal and conical Unknown Part 77 airspace Study surfaces Relocate the No public roadways within the Airport access road with Rwy airport access Future project RPZ 29 RPZ road No longer No public roadways within the Public dirt service road within concern; service Close service road RPZ Rwy 11 RPZ road is not public No direct access from apron to Taxiway A4 crosses Taxiway A Reconfigure runway through parallel taxiway with direct access to aircraft Future project Taxiway A4 apron Abbreviations: BRL= Building Restriction Line; CFR= Code of Federal Regulations; RPZ= Runway Protection Zone; Rwy = Runway Note: 1 The upcoming On-Airport Obstruction Removal Project will address current penetrations to Part 77 surfaces as follows: barbed-wire fencing will be removed and replaced in different location, secondary wind cones and nested T-hangar building will add obstruction lights, and the two large trees near Runway 29 end will be removed. Source: San Manuel ALP, April 2015; On-site inventory observations, May 2020
No additional non-standard conditions were noted at the time of the site visit in May 2020. Future obstructions to Part 77 surfaces not addressed in the upcoming obstruction removal project may be addressed at a later date.
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Section 3— Forecasts of Aviation Activity
This section presents updated forecasts of aviation demand for San Manuel Airport for the 20-year planning horizon 2020 through 2040. Forecasts of aviation demand provide a basis for determining the type, size, and timing of aviation facility development once an airport’s needs are identified. The objective of forecasting is to develop a realistic measure of potential changes in outside influencing factors – such as regulatory policies on the local and national level, technological innovations, aviation industry trends, and local fluctuations in population and employment – in order to holistically estimate their impact on an airport’s facilities based on existing activity and demand. Methodologies used to forecast this activity involves both analytical techniques and subjective considerations.
The revised forecasts contained within this report will serve as a guide for development and allow Pinal County to prudently plan for capital investments. However, the projections should be used only as a planning tool for activity levels that identify trigger points for the development of future airport facilities and should be considered independent of specific years. For the best outcome, actual activity growth should be frequently compared to projected growth to identify and implement any schedule corrections.
For the purpose of this ALP Update, new forecasting methodologies are not introduced, but rather a validation of the FAA approved preferred forecast from the 2015 Airport Master Plan is provided. For comparative purposes, the FAA’s National Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and ADOT’s State Aviation System Plan (SASP) forecasts for E77 are also reviewed. The based aircraft and annual aircraft operations forecasts contained in these three documents will be compared against current activity at the Airport and based on these findings the forecasts will be revised using the forecast methodology that most closely represents the Airport’s current and likely future activity over the course of the 2020-2040 planning horizon. Finally, the existing critical aircraft as reported in the 2015 AMP will be reviewed and analyzed against current aircraft operations; a recommendation to revise the existing critical aircraft will be made should current activity suggest another aircraft is more representative of the FAA’s definition of “regular use5” for a facility.
3.1 Review of Current Activity The first step for determining a revised forecast for this ALP Update is to examine the estimated current activity in order to establish a base line for both based aircraft and annual operations. A based aircraft is an actively registered aircraft stationed at an airport for at least six months out of the year, who’s owner considers that airport as its "home base." An aircraft operation is a measure of activity that is defined as either a takeoff or landing (a takeoff and a landing are counted as two
5 FAA definition of regular use is 500 annual operations, including both itinerant and local but excluding touch-and-go, performed by the most demanding aircraft type, or grouping of aircraft with similar characteristics, using the airport.
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operations). General aviation activity includes operations by a variety of aircraft including single- and multi-engine pistons and turboprops, corporate jets, and rotorcrafts. The types of GA activities at an airport vary depending on its pilot base, location, and other factors.
At E77, single- and multi-engine piston aircraft account for most of the operations, with occasional activity by rotorcraft and ultralights. Less frequently, small business jets and military aircraft may also utilize the Airport. The most common types of aeronautical activities occurring at the Airport are recreational and flight training activities, with some occasional military training and seasonal aerial fire-fighting support activities.
Sources examined for the existing based aircraft count include the FAA Form 5010-1, Airport Master Record and the FAA’s National Based Aircraft Inventory Program6, and Airport management records. The most recent FAA Form 5010-1 (5010), dated May 21, 2020, reports 18 existing based aircraft at the Airport. A review of the National Based Aircraft Inventory Program data dated December 5, 2019, for E77 also reports 18 validated based aircraft. However, as a part of the data collection process for this report, the Airport Manager provided the most up-to-date record which indicates 27 based aircraft at E77. Non-primary airports included in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) (of which E77 is one) are required to keep up-to-date based aircraft numbers via the National Based Aircraft Inventory Program database so that the FAA can accurately update Form 5010-1. Once updated on basedaircraft.com, the time for the FAA to validate all aircraft and update the 5010 may take several months. Thus, for the purpose of this report, the existing total based aircraft, including the fleet mix of aircraft found at the Airport, will reflect the numbers reported by the Airport Manager as they reflect the most accurate and current data available.
The FAA 5010 also includes an airport’s total annual operations. For E77, the 5010 indicates a total of 14,300 operations for the 12-month period ending April 1, 2020. The Airport does not have an Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) to assist in determining the total annual operations. However, this figure has been validated by Airport management and reported to the 5010. For planning purposes, it is assumed that this figure is an accurate count of total operations occurring at the Airport and will be used for the baseline data for this report. Table 3-1 depicts a summary of the existing based aircraft and total annual operations for the Airport that will be used for determining revised forecasts of aviation demand. It should be noted that the 5010 reports 300 annual military operations at E77; however, due to FAA AIP guidelines military operations are not typically included in calculations and often their estimate remains constant over the forecast horizon.
6 Data from the FAA’s National Based Aircraft Inventory Program can be accessed from www.basedaircraft.com
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Table 3-1 Existing Based Aircraft and Annual Operations (Baseline) Based Aircraft Aircraft Operations Single-engine piston 25 Air Taxi 0 Multi-engine piston 0 GA local 12,000 Turboprop/Jet 0 GA itinerant 2,000 Rotorcraft 21 Military 3002 Total 27 Total 14,300 Note: 1 These aircraft are gyroplanes. 2Shown for reporting purposes, but due to FAA AIP guidelines will not be used in calculations for projecting future operations. Source: FAA Form 5010-1, Airport Master Record, May 21, 2020; Airport management records, June 2020
3.2 Summary of Existing Forecasts This section will summarize and evaluate the findings of the 2015 AMP forecasts, as well as the forecasts developed at the national and state level for the Airport. The goal is to either validate the preferred based aircraft and annual operations forecasts found within the AMP or identify another methodology that may better reflect future activity based on current activity. Once the methodology most likely to represent the Airport is identified, the based aircraft and annual operations forecast will be revised using the current baseline data.
Airport Master Plan Forecast The 2015 Master Plan utilized several different methodologies to produce four forecast scenarios for based aircraft and total annual operations based on the populations of 1) a primary service area 2) an extended service area, and 3) Pinal County. These scenarios included: . Adjusted Regional Model (ARM) – based on population of Primary Service Area . Linear Regression Analysis – based on population of Pinal County . Market Share Analysis – based on population of Extended Service Area . Market Share Analysis – based on population of Pinal County
Using 36 based aircraft and 12,420 total annual operations as the 2014 baseline data, these methodologies produced future projections ranging from 35 to 88 based aircraft and 12,909 to 30,360 annual operations over the 20-year planning horizon (2014 – 2034). Ultimately, the average of each method for both based aircraft and operations was selected as the preferred forecast. The AMP states this preferred method was chosen because the results of each scenario produced similar results, and by taking the average of the four methods the best balance between the high (maximum potential) and low (least potential) demand would be achieved. Figure 3-1 illustrates the outcome of each method for based aircraft and annual operations, with the preferred forecast outcome shown in bold text.
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Figure 3-1 2015 AMP Forecast Summary
Source: San Manuel Airport Master Plan, May 2015
As is evident from Figure 3-1, based aircraft and annual operations for 2020 were forecasted at 48 and 17,816 respectively. Both projections are far above what existing data reports, and there has been a decrease in based aircraft in the last six years from 36 in 2014 (baseline for AMP forecast) to 27 in 2020 (new baseline). The data produced from the 2015 AMP preferred forecasts suggest a 3.8 percent average annual growth rate for based aircraft and a 3.2 percent average annual growth rate for annual operations. As previously mentioned, the preferred forecasts for both based aircraft and annual operations were an average of the outcomes of four methodologies based largely on their correlation to Pinal County and the airport service area populations. This is a sound methodology, particularly for small, rural GA airports similar in size and function as E77; however, the growth
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rates may have been too aggressive based on the current status of both based aircraft and annual operations at the Airport today. The Airport’s based aircraft have declined instead of steadily increasing as suggested in the 2015 AMP forecast. Likewise, single-engine piston aircraft remain the most common based aircraft (outside of the two gyroplanes), suggesting that the based aircraft fleet mix in the 2015 AMP which projected multi-engine piston to begin basing at the airport did not occur. The same is true for annual operations in that the forecasted growth rate may have been too aggressive.
The airport has a unique niche in the local and regional GA realm. It caters to mostly retired individuals who partake in occasional recreational flying and those engaged in flight training to become pilots. The itinerant traffic from visiting aircraft is slight in comparison to the local aircraft operations, mostly due to the rural surroundings of the airport. If one does not live in the area, there is not much in terms of accessibility to surrounding amenities, attractions, or large businesses that would drive visiting pilots to the area. Apart from local operations, E77 for the most part serves as a fuel stop for cross-country travelers. Thus, although the methodology to determine the forecasts in the 2015 AMP is sound, the resulting growth rates are too high to accurately represent existing and future demand at the Airport today.
National and State Forecasts Aviation forecasts are also prepared on the national and state level. The FAA makes projections for based aircraft and annual operations using the TAF, the official forecast of aviation activity for U.S. airports, often used for planning and budgeting for the implementation of capital projects. At the state level, ADOT’s Aeronautics Division also maintains the SASP, in which forecasts for all public airports in the state are available. This section presents data pertaining to E77 as reported in the January 2020 TAF and 2018 SASP.
. The TAF data for the Airport projects 21 based aircraft and 14,010 total annual opera- tions for each year over the course of the 20-year forecast period (2020 – 2040). . According to the SASP, the preferred forecast projections for the Airport for the year 2021 indicate 41 based aircraft and 14,220 total annual operations, and for the year 2036 indicate 56 based aircraft and 14,390 total annual operations.
As noted, accurately predicting aircraft operations for airports without an ATCT is difficult. Non- towered GA airports included in the FAA TAF utilize special formulae to estimate annual operations; the equation applies local factors, such as the number of based aircraft; population; location; and flight school activities; to estimate annual aircraft operations. Likewise, the Arizona SASP uses similar indicators such as historical trends of aircraft mix, operations, and nationwide aviation activity. Figures 3-2 and 3-3 illustrate the outcomes of the 2015 AMP, FAA TAF, and Arizona SASP forecasts for based aircraft and annual operations.
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Figure 3-2 Based Aircraft Forecasts for San Manuel Airport (2020-2040)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2015 AMP 2018 SASP 2020 FAA TAF
Sources: San Manuel Airport Master Plan, 2015; Arizona State Aviation System Plan, 2018; FAA TAF, 2020; compiled by Dibble Engineering, June 2020 Figure 3-3 Annual Operations Forecasts for San Manuel Airport (2020-2040)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015 AMP 2018 SASP 2020 FAA TAF
Sources: San Manuel Airport Master Plan, 2015; Arizona State Aviation System Plan, 2018; FAA TAF, 2020; compiled by Dibble Engineering, June 2020
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FAA TAF Forecast In contrast to the 2015 AMP, the FAA TAF forecasts for based aircraft and annual operations over the 20-year planning horizon from 2020 through 2040 is projecting no growth (0% growth rate). While this is also not uncommon for airports such as E77 in the TAF, it is not necessarily predictive of future activity. It suggests that no growth at the Airport is likely to occur over the next 20 years, which based on conversations with Airport management personnel, also does not seem likely. There is evidence that pilots in the Airport’s general service area, and even slightly beyond, would like to base their aircraft at the Airport if more hangars (or covered shaded tie-downs) were available. This is supported by the 25 individuals currently on a wait list for a hangar as previously mentioned. Should more pilots base their aircraft at the Airport, an increase in at least local operations would likely occur, contributing to more total annual operations. Pinal County is aware of the need for additional hangars and covered shades at the Airport, and they working that need into their capital improvement funding program. Therefore, the no-growth forecasts suggested by the FAA TAF are too low to accurately reflect future demand at the Airport should additional hangars be built within the planning horizon.
Arizona SASP Forecast Lastly, there are the based aircraft and annual operations forecasts contained in the recently published Arizona SASP (2018). The SASP also developed its forecasts by evaluating socioeconomic indicators of GA activity from national GA trends, Arizona GA trends, Arizona historical and projected demographics, and other Arizona GA forecasts. Two methodologies were examined for the based aircraft forecasts that included a top-down Market Share analysis using the national fleet mix growth (or decline) rate and a Population Growth analysis which applied the projected population growth rate of each county to the based aircraft counts. Similarly, two methodologies were also reviewed for the annual operations forecasts. These methods included an Operations Per Based Aircraft (OPBA) method – a standard industry method used by the FAA and others to estimate GA operations at non-towered airports, and the ARC Category growth rate method. The ARC Category method uses a growth rate comparing the GA and air taxi hours flown found within the FAA Aerospace Forecast and applies that rate to an airport that falls within a group based on the airport’s existing ARC. Airports in Group 1 included those with an ARC of B-II or less and these were assigned an average annual growth rate of 0.08 percent.
Ultimately, the SASP concluded the Population Growth method most closely represented how based aircraft are likely to grow within Arizona over the next 20 years. The estimated population growth rate for Pinal County over the 20-year timeframe is 2.07 percent. Additionally, the ARC Category method was selected as the preferred forecast for annual operations for many of the same reasons as the selection of the population growth method.7 With the E77 ARC currently classified as B-I,
7 For a more in-depth description on why the Population Growth and ARC Category methods were chosen as the preferred forecasts for the state of Arizona, please refer to Chapter 4 in the SASP:
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SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT the Airport fell within Group 1 for the ARC Category and a growth rate of 0.08 percent was used. Both forecasts project a conservative positive growth in based aircraft and annual operations at E77 over the 20-year planning horizon.
3.3 ALP Update Recommended Forecast Based upon the Airport’s current activity and the outcomes of the three sources of based aircraft and annual operations forecasts described in the preceding section, it is recommended that the growth rates for based aircraft and annual operations as described in the SASP’s preferred forecast be applied to the current baseline conditions for the Airport to determine revised forecasts as a part of this ALP Update. The SASP forecasts provide moderate growth at the Airport compared to the more aggressive 2015 AMP growth and the no-growth scenario found in the FAA TAF. This is supported by Airport management’s indication of demand for hangars at E77, suggesting that based aircraft, and in turn operations, may steadily increase when new structures are added on the airfield. A subtle, yet steady, increase in growth at the Airport makes sense due to the geographic location and local demographics of the area. Thus, the preferred methodologies utilized in the SASP best represent anticipated future GA operations at E77.
3.4 Based Aircraft Forecast The preferred Population Growth Rate method as identified in the 2018 SASP determined the revised based aircraft forecast for this ALP Update by applying the 20-year Pinal County growth rate of 2.07 percent to the current 27 based aircraft over the 20-year period (2020 – 2040). Table 3-2 depicts the outcome of the calculations.
Table 3-2 Based Aircraft Forecast Year Based Aircraft 2020 (Base Year) 27 2025 30 2030 33 2035 37 2040 41 Source: Dibble Engineering, June 2020
Fleet Mix The forecast of the based aircraft fleet mix (type of aircraft) is based on expected national trends adjusted to local conditions. These forecasts indicate the direction of the aircraft fleet mix and potential future based aircraft.
https://azdot.gov/planning/airport-development/development-and-planning/state-airports-system-plan-sasp
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According to Airport management records, approximately 93 percent of the aircraft currently based at the Airport are single-engine piston aircraft and the remaining seven percent are rotorcraft (specifically gyroplanes). There are currently no multi-engine piston or turbine (turboprop or jet) aircraft based at the Airport. Figure 3-4 shows the breakdown of the existing aircraft fleet mix.
Figure 3-4 Existing Based Aircraft Fleet Mix
7%
93%
Single-engine piston Rotorcraft
Source: Pinal County, San Manuel Airport management, June 2020
The recent FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years (FY) 2020-2040, included the following fleet mix projections: . Fixed-wing piston powered aircraft are projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. . Rotorcraft are expected to increase slightly, and light-sport-aircraft are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent.
Historically, single-engine piston aircraft have comprised much of the based aircraft fleet mix at E77. Therefore, although the national forecast predicts a decline in these aircraft, the existing percentage of single-engine aircraft is anticipated to increase modestly over the forecast period at E77 based on historical data and local trends. Table 3-3 presents the based aircraft fleet mix forecast for the Airport.
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Table 3-3 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Forecast
Year Single-engine Multi-engine Turboprop/ Rotorcraft1 Total piston piston Jet 2020 25 0 0 2 (Base Year) 27 2025 28 0 0 2 30 2030 30 0 0 3 33 2035 33 1 0 3 37 2040 36 2 0 3 41 Note: 1 The existing two aircraft in this category are gyroplanes, which are considered a type of rotorcraft. Source: Dibble Engineering, June 2020
3.5 Annual Operations Forecast The preferred ARC Category method as identified in the 2018 SASP determined the revised annual operations forecast for this ALP Update by applying the B-II aircraft category or under rate of 0.08 percent to the current 14,000 (excluding military) operations over the 20-year period (2020-2040). Additionally, the operations were calculated and divided into an estimate of local and itinerant operations. The FAA defines itinerant operations as operations performed by aircraft that land at an airport, arriving from outside the airport area, or departing an airport and leaving the airport area. Conversely, local GA operations are those performed by aircraft that: . Operate in the local traffic pattern or within sight of an airport; . Are known to be departing for, or arriving from, local practice areas within a 20-mile radius of the airport; and . Are executing practice instrument approaches.
According to the operations data reported in the FAA TAF, the projected itinerant/local split for the Airport will remain unchanged at approximately 14 percent itinerant and 86 percent local operations for the 20-year forecast period from 2020-2040. The SASP itinerant/local split differs slightly from the TAF at 41 percent itinerant and 59 percent local. In this instance, given the current flight training activity at the Airport, the FAA TAF projections for local versus itinerant operations seem more accurate and will be used within this revised forecast. Thus, the total operations were calculated using a 14 percent itinerant and 86 percent local operations split and applied and carried forward throughout the 2020-2040 forecast period. Table 3-4 provides a summary of the preferred annual operations forecast with the itinerant/local operational split determined above.
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Table 3-4 Annual GA Operations Forecast Year Itinerant Local Total 2020 (Base Year) 2,000 12,000 14,0001 2025 1,968 12,088 14,056 2030 1,975 12,137 14,112 2035 1,984 12,185 14,169 2040 1,992 12,234 14,226 Note: 1 Excludes military operations. Source: Dibble Engineering, June 2020
Military operations do occur at E77; according to Airport management, approximately 300 operations by military aircraft occur annually at the Airport. Although these operations are not included in calculations to determine the total annual operations at E77 due to FAA AIP guidelines, it is assumed that they will remain at roughly 300 operations annually throughout the 20-year period.
3.6 Peak Activity In general, the facility needs of an airport are often related to the levels of activity during peak periods. These peak periods, often described as peak-month or peak-hour operations, typically are important factors to identify at busy commercial service or GA reliever airports where aircraft may be competing for the same facilities or amenities at the same time. This is not necessarily the case at E77 and there is no evidence that areas such as the aircraft parking apron, pilot lounge, or vehicle parking areas lack accommodation at any given time during an average, or even above average, day at the Airport.
As previously mentioned, the Airport does not have an ATCT, nor does the airport employ any other known methods for accurately accounting for aircraft operations that occur at the airfield. One method that may assist in estimating operations at GA airports without aircraft tracking capabilities is review of fuel sales. Fuel sales, while not 100 percent accurate, can provide an approximation of when the busiest, or peak, month of aircraft operations are occurring. Using the fuel sales data for the period from June 2019 through May 2020 provided by Airport management, the busiest month at the Airport appears to be February, followed closely by October.
Using industry standard formulas for the peak-month, design day, design hour, and peak hour operations based on February as the Airport’s busiest month, peak-day and design-hour estimates were determined. The outcomes of these calculations further provided the itinerant operations and pilot and passenger peak data, which ultimately assisted in projecting future apron and hangar/shaded tiedown needs for the Airport. The outcomes of the calculations are illustrated in Table 3-5 (see also Appendix B).
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Table 3-5 San Manuel Airport Peak Activity Forecast Design Hour Peak Hour Planning Annual Peak Month Design Day Itinerant Itinerant Pilot Period Operations Operations Operations Operations & Passenger 2020 14,300 1,549 55 4 5 2025 14,356 1,555 56 4 5 2030 14,412 1,561 56 4 5 2040 14,526 1,574 56 4 5 Notes: 1 All calculations were rounded to the nearest whole number. 2) Military operations were included in order to capture realistic itinerant operations. 3) According to fuel sales at San Manuel, February is the busiest (peak) month. 4) See Appendix TBD for detailed calculations. Source: Dibble Engineering, June 2020
3.7 Summary of Preferred Forecasts The San Manuel Airport’s 20-year forecast of aviation activity conservatively projects steady growth over the forecast period for GA activity. The proposed forecasts consider the local and regional socioeconomic factors that may have an impact on the Airport. Likewise, a comparison of the proposed forecasts with the FAA TAF for the same time frame shows little variation. As a rule, forecasted activities are considered consistent with the TAF if the forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast period (2025), and 15 percent in the 10 and 15-year forecast periods (2030 and 2035). Military operations are included for comparison with the TAF; the TAF forecasts 10 annual military operations per year, but Airport management reports closer to 300 annually. Both the TAF and the Airport reported military operations are forecast to remain at their current count throughout the 20-year forecast. Table 3-6 presents a summary of forecasted demand at the Airport for the 2020-2040 planning period along with the current FAA TAF projections and the percentage of difference between the two forecasts.
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Table 3-6 Preferred Forecasts (PF)/TAF Forecast Comparison (2020-2040) PF/TAF Aviation Activity Preferred Forecasts1 JAN 2020 TAF2 % Difference Annual Operations 2020 (Base Year) 14,300 14,010 2.1% 2025 14,356 14,010 2.4% 2030 14,412 14,010 2.9% 2035 14,469 14,010 3.2% 2040 14,526 14,010 3.7% Based Aircraft 2020 (Base Year) 27 21 28.6% 2025 30 21 42.9% 2030 33 21 57.1% 2035 37 21 76.2% 2040 41 21 95.2% Notes: 1 Includes 300 annual military operations for comparative purposes only; this figure was not included in the calculations for determining the preferred operations forecast for 2020-2040 but was added to the outcome in order to compare with TAF. 2 Includes 10 annual military operations which are forecast to remain constant throughout the 20-year planning horizon. Sources: FAA TAF, January 2020; Dibble Engineering, June 2020
Total annual operations (including estimated military) fall within the consistency limits of the TAF; however, based aircraft do not. The discrepancy for based aircraft is due to the use of E77’s officially reported aircraft count for 2020, which immediately causes inconsistencies between the forecasts and the TAF. The FAA TAF based aircraft forecast likely does not consider the possibility of an increase in based aircraft at the Airport once additional hangars are constructed within the 20- year planning horizon.
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3.8 Critical Aircraft Determination As previously mentioned, the Airport does not have an ATCT or other means of accurately tracking the various makes and models of aircraft that preform operations to and from the airfield. The best data available that provides a limited account of the types of aircraft frequenting E77 can be found using the FAA Traffic Flow Management Count System (TFMSC) database. This database records aircraft takeoffs and landings by aircraft user category (general aviation for example), engine type, make/model, and AAC/ADG/TDG. However, the data recorded only pertains to aircraft that have filed an instrument flight rules (IFR) flight plan to/from the airport. Thus, because the vast majority of aircraft that utilize the Airport do so under visual metrological conditions (VMC) and make visual-only approaches to the runway, many of these operations are not captured. Nevertheless, the TFMSC report for E77 from January 2015 through December 2019 indicates that most of the IFR flight plan operations are from A-I and B-I aircraft. These are single- or twin-engine piston aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) of 9,000 pounds or less.
The 2015 AMP designated the Cessna 414A Chancellor as the critical design aircraft for E77 and Runway 11/29 (see Section 2.3.1, Design Aircraft). The 414A is a twin-engine piston aircraft with a MTOW of 6,025 pounds. This aircraft represents the most demanding family of aircraft with similar characteristics that use the Airport on a regular basis. In the absence of precise aircraft operations data to suggest otherwise, it is recommended that this aircraft remain the existing critical aircraft for San Manuel Airport. Furthermore, there is no indication that the Airport’s role in the state aviation system or the NPIAS will change over the 20-year planning horizon in such a way that a larger aircraft will overtake the Cessna 414A (or similar aircraft) operationally. Additionally, there is no indication by the County that Runway 11/29’s pavement will be strengthened beyond 12,500 pounds, thereby indicating that the runway is to remain classified as a Utility runway for the foreseeable future. In conclusion, it is recommended that the future critical aircraft also be designated as the Cessna 414A Chancellor.
[End of WP1]
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Appendix A
SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT
RESERVED – To Be Inserted SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT
Appendix B
SAN MANUEL AIRPORT | AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN UPDATE NARRATIVE REPORT
Appendix B – San Manuel Airport Peak Activity Calculations
Design Planning Peak Design Annual Hour Peak Hour Itinerant Activity Month Day Ops Itinerant Pilot & Passengers Level Ops Ops Ops 2020 14,300 1,549 55 4 5 Base Year 2025 14,356 1,555 56 4 5 2030 14,412 1,561 56 4 5 2040 14,526 1,574 56 4 5 Notes: Peak Month = February All calculations are rounded to the nearest whole number. Peak Month Operations = (Annual Operations/12) x 1.3 Design Day Operations = Peak Month Operations/Days in Peak Month (28) Design Hour Itinerant Operations = Design Day Operations x 0.15/2 Peak Hour Itinerant Pilot and Passengers = Design Hour Itinerant Ops x 2.5/2
B-1