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Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines

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Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1481, 2015 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1473/2015/ doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks J. P. Lapidez1, J. Tablazon1, L. Dasallas1, L. A. Gonzalo1, K. M. Cabacaba1, M. M. A. Ramos1, J. K. Suarez1, J. Santiago1, A. M. F. Lagmay1,2, and V. Malano3 1Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, Quezon City, Philippines 2National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines-Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 3Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines Correspondence to: J. P. Lapidez ([email protected]) Received: 01 October 2014 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 02 February 2015 Revised: 11 May 2015 – Accepted: 10 June 2015 – Published: 02 July 2015 Abstract. Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine 1 Introduction Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly The water level oscillations, over and above the predicted as- due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up tronomical tides in coastal or inland bodies of water, gener- to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The ated by the wind forcings from an atmospheric weather sys- threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled re- tem are called storm surges (Murty, 1999). The specific fac- searchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Haz- tors affecting the height of the generated surge are the follow- ards (Project NOAH) which is the flagship disaster mitiga- ing: the storm’s central pressure, wind intensity, translational tion program of the Department of Science and Technology forward speed, storm radius, storm approach angle, coast- (DOST) of the Philippine government to undertake a study to line geometry, and the local bathymetry (National Oceanic determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal commu- and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, nities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those gener- National Hurricane Center, 2014). The resulting flood in- ated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable duced by storm surge is a major cause of casualties and storm surge height for every coastal locality by running sim- damages to coastal regions. The destructive elements pro- ulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical duced by these surges lead scientists from all over the world cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of to conduct research into storm surge risk assessments (Wu this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas et al., 2002; Brown et al., 2007; Hallegatte et al., 2011; Rygel that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for fur- et al., 2006). The Philippines, with its 36 289 km of coast- ther studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions lines, is highly susceptible to the ill effects of weather haz- for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide ards (Yumul Jr. et al., 2011), such as storm surges. The coun- inundation maps that the local government units can use to try is also included in the regions that are most vulnerable to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appro- coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (Nicholls et al., 1999). priate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, Its low lying islands, long stretches of coastal areas, con- and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also cave and gently sloping coastlines contribute to the enhance- be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation ment of storm surge impacts. The country’s geographical lo- scheme. cation also increases its exposure to storm surge hazard – it lies in the south western part of the Northwest Pacific basin which is considered to be the most active ocean basin, gen- Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1474 J. P. Lapidez et al.: Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines Figure 1. Maximum storm surge height (m) map for the (a) Philippines, (b) Metro Manila, (c) Iloilo, (d) Leyte. erating an average of 26 tropical cyclones per year (National tions using the intensity of Haiyan and tracks of tropical cy- Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceano- clones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. This provided an graphic and Meteorological Laboratory, 2000). An average idea of the probable extent of damage if a Haiyan-intensity of 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility storm hit a certain area. Once the vulnerable coastal areas are (PAR) annually, 9 of which make landfall passing through the identified, appropriate site-specific solutions to storm surge southern part of Luzon island and eastern part of the Visayan hazards can be studied to produce scientific evidence to guide islands. Refer to Fig.1. management strategies. Outputs are also intended to enable Typhoon Haiyan was the 25th typhoon that entered PAR the development of a risk-sensitive land use plan to iden- in 2013. It started as a low pressure region in the West Pa- tify appropriate areas for residential buildings, evacuation cific Ocean early on 2 November. Favorable environmen- sites and other critical facilities. Inundation maps and haz- tal conditions prompted the atmospheric disturbance to un- ard maps based on the worst case scenario for every area can dergo rapid intensification, upgrading the typhoon to cat- also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacu- egory 5 on 7 November 2013 (National Oceanic and At- ation scheme, to improve the regions resilience to typhoon mospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, driven storm surges. 2013). Haiyan, with an estimated 10 min maximum sustained winds of 235 km h−1 (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2014) is the strongest typhoon to make landfall in the country in 2 Methodology recorded history. The intense wind, torrential rainfall and several-meter-high storm surge generated by the typhoon, re- The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) keeps an archive sulted in widespread devastation in the central Philippines. of the best data of the typhoon track. These data are This extreme event emphasized the necessity to forecast publicly available and can be downloaded from their storm surge height and inundation in the Philippine coastal website: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ regions. The study’s objective is to identify the areas in the rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html. A best track data text file Philippines that are most susceptible to extreme storm surges. contains information about all typhoons formed in the North The maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal western pacific basin for a specific year. The pertinent locality is calculated by running multiple storm surge simula- information in the best track data that are essential to the Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1481, 2015 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1473/2015/ J. P. Lapidez et al.: Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines 1475 storm surge simulation are the following: the location of the are the components of wind stress on the sea surface; and τbx typhoon center throughout its lifetime, the central pressure and τby are the stress components of bottom friction. Explicit and maximum sustained wind speed values, and the radii to finite difference method is used by the model to numerically 50 and 30 knot winds. For this research, all the available best integrate the equations. track data files which covers the years 1951 to 2013 were The JMA Storm Surge Model calculates the wind and downloaded. For each typhoon, the information about the pressure fields using empirical distribution formula and gra- location of its center from the time of formation until the dient wind relation. It computes storm surges that are pro- time of dissipation were extracted and were used as the basis duced by the wind set up due to the strong onshore surface of the tracks of the hypothetical typhoons used in the storm winds and the inverse barometer effect associated with the surge simulations. sudden decrease of pressure in the atmosphere (Hasegawa The best track data of JMA from 1951 to 2013 was et al., 2012). The model assumes that sea levels and the cross-referenced to the list of typhoons that entered PAR as static level of local surface pressures are balanced, with a recorded by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and difference in sea level generating inflow and outflow cur- Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Only the rents moving as a gravitational wave (Higaki et al., 2009). typhoon tracks that crossed the PAR were used in the study. The inputs used to run the storm surge simulations are the ty- Data about Typhoon Haiyan were taken from the phoon best track data, domain bathymetry, and station files. 2013 best track data of the Japan Meteorological The bathymetric data used in the simulations was the 2 min Agency – http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ Global Gridded Elevation Data (ETOPO2) of the National rsmc-hp-pub-eg/Besttracks/bst2013.txt. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A sta- Hypothetical typhoons were created using the tracks of the tion file contains a list of points inside the computational do- selected typhoons and the central pressure, maximum sus- main where the storm surge is computed. This file was used tained wind speed values, and radii to the 50 and 30 knot to specify the locations at which storm surge time series was winds of Haiyan.
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