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Development of the Electricity Sector UCC Library and UCC researchers have made this item openly available. Please let us know how this has helped you. Thanks! Title Analysing evolutionary pathways for the European power system resulting from climate mitigation policy Author(s) Gaffney, Fiac Publication date 2019 Original citation Gaffney, F. 2019. Analysing evolutionary pathways for the European power system resulting from climate mitigation policy. PhD Thesis, University College Cork. Type of publication Doctoral thesis Rights © 2019, Fiac Gaffney. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ Embargo information Not applicable Item downloaded http://hdl.handle.net/10468/9632 from Downloaded on 2021-10-01T19:36:26Z School of Engineering & MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Analysing Evolutionary Pathways for the European Power System resulting from Climate Mitigation Policy Fiac Gaffney B.Eng M.Sc Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the National University of Ireland, Cork July 2019 Supervisors: Professor Brian P. Ó Gallachóir & Dr. Paul Deane Head of Department/School: Professor Liam P. Marnane i Declaration ________________________________________________________ vi Acknowledgements __________________________________________________ vii Executive Summary ________________________________________________ viii Units and Abbreviations______________________________________________ ix List of Figures ____________________________________________________ xiii List of Tables _____________________________________________________ xiv Chapter 1: Introduction _______________________________________________ 1 Background ___________________________________________________ 1 Aims _________________________________________________________ 3 Thesis in Brief _________________________________________________ 3 Methodology __________________________________________________ 5 Soft-linked power system dispatch modelling __________________________________ 6 Modelling platform ______________________________________________________ 6 Scenario analysis ________________________________________________________ 6 Role of Collaborators ___________________________________________ 7 Thesis Outputs _________________________________________________ 8 Journal Papers __________________________________________________________ 8 Seminar, Webinar & Workshop Presentations __________________________________ 9 Chapter 2: A 100 Year Review of Electricity Policy in Ireland (1916-2015) _____ 10 Abstract ______________________________________________________ 10 Introduction __________________________________________________ 11 Development of the electricity sector _____________________________ 13 The Shannon hydroelectric scheme, 1925 ____________________________________ 13 Establishing the Electricity Supply Board, 1927 _______________________________ 14 Sector development and rural electrification, 1930-1960 ________________________ 15 The 1970s oil crises _____________________________________________________ 16 Diversifying the generation portfolio ________________________________________ 18 Market liberalisation and regulation _____________________________ 25 ii Market liberalisation ____________________________________________________ 25 Transitioning towards an EU internal electricity market _________________________ 29 The EU Target Model ___________________________________________________ 32 The role of climate mitigation policy ______________________________ 34 National climate mitigation policies_________________________________________ 36 Conclusion and policy implications _______________________________ 39 Chapter 3: Reconciling high RES-E ambitions with market economics and system operation: Lessons from Ireland’s power system __________________________ 42 Abstract ______________________________________________________ 42 Introduction __________________________________________________ 43 Transforming an energy market _________________________________ 44 The all-island electricity market ____________________________________________ 45 R _______________________________ 50 Early capacity payments in Ireland _________________________________________ 52 The capacity remuneration mechanism ______________________________________ 53 Restructuring system services ___________________________________ 57 Comparable system conditions _____________________________________________ 58 The DS3 programme ____________________________________________________ 59 System Performance_____________________________________________________ 60 Revenues from DS3 programme related activities ______________________________ 67 Conclusion ___________________________________________________ 69 Chapter 4: Consumption-based approach to RES-E quantification: Insights from a pan- European case study ________________________________________________ 71 Abstract ______________________________________________________ 71 Introduction __________________________________________________ 72 Methodology _________________________________________________ 75 Power system simulation _________________________________________________ 76 Post-processing ________________________________________________________ 79 Results ______________________________________________________ 84 Wholesale electricity prices _______________________________________________ 84 RES-E interconnector flow _______________________________________________ 85 Country-specific renewable electricity shares _________________________________ 89 iii Discussion____________________________________________________ 91 What does a consumption-based approach offer? ______________________________ 91 Who pays the ‘true’ cost of transferred renewable electricity? ____________________ 92 Considerations associated with a consumption-based alternative approach __________ 96 Conclusion ___________________________________________________ 97 Chapter 5: Comparing negative emissions and high renewable scenarios for the European power system _______________________________________________________ 99 Abstract ______________________________________________________ 99 Introduction _________________________________________________ 100 Methodology ________________________________________________ 101 Analytical approach ____________________________________________________ 101 Scenarios in focus _____________________________________________________ 104 Model simulation ______________________________________________________ 105 Input Data ____________________________________________________________ 106 Total system cost assessment _____________________________________________ 109 Results and discussion ________________________________________ 110 Operational conditions across different decarbonisation pathways ________________ 110 Decarbonisation and the impact of NETs ____________________________________ 111 Total system costs and the effect of carbon-related costs________________________ 113 Average abatement costs ________________________________________________ 115 Conclusion __________________________________________________ 116 Chapter 6: Reliably providing highly renewable 100% emissions-free electricity across Europe benefits from incorporating dispatchable generation _______________ 118 Abstract _____________________________________________________ 118 Introduction _________________________________________________ 119 Context ______________________________________________________________ 120 Approach ____________________________________________________________ 121 WWS scenarios _______________________________________________________ 122 Results and discussion ________________________________________ 124 Inter-annual variability __________________________________________________ 124 WWS scenarios modified to achieve today’s reliability levels ___________________ 125 System reliability using carbon neutral generation ____________________________ 127 System stability of the WWS roadmaps _____________________________________ 129 iv Reliance on cross-border transmission capacity expansion ______________________ 130 Conclusion __________________________________________________ 131 Methods ____________________________________________________ 132 Modelling technique____________________________________________________ 132 Chapter 7: Conclusion ______________________________________________ 135 Marketplace Evolution ________________________________________ 135 Policy ______________________________________________________ 138 Future Work ________________________________________________ 140 Bibliography ______________________________________________________ 142 Appendix A: PLEXOS® Equations____________________________________ 162 Appendix B: Supplementary Material – Chapter 5 _______________________ 166 Appendix C: Supplementary Material – Chapter 6 _______________________ 173 v “This is to certify that the work I, Fiac Gaffney, am submitting is my own and has not been submitted for another degree, either at University College Cork or elsewhere. All external references and sources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents. I have read and understood the regulations of University College Cork concerning plagiarism.” ____________________ Fiac Gaffney vi I would like to thank Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir and Dr. Paul Deane for their guidance and support throughout my research. Both were invaluable sources of help and inspiration during my time in the Energy Policy and Modelling Group, for which I am eternally grateful. I would
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