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Turkey Strategy 12 May 2020 Turkey Strategy | Virus receding but not the pressure on TL Turkey’s fight against the coronavirus is going well: Both the daily death toll and the number of active cases have been in a declining trend. It appears Strategy that Turkey’s selective lockdown measures that are imposed timely (stay at home orders only for <20 and >65 ages; full lockdowns only during public holidays) and low mortality rate (thanks to the large healthcare capacity, its special treatment protocol and the young population) have limited the CEEMEA/Turkey | outbreak’s impact on the country. With the decline in active cases, the government has recently started to ease the lockdown restrictions. Data from sectors will be very ugly in the coming months, but this may not catalyse a further leg down: Despite the easing of restrictions, the weak export market, the end of the ban on personnel layoffs by mid-July and the potentially very weak tourism season suggest that the very sharp contraction in economic activity will continue into 3Q20. However, we believe that the weak data print may not catalyse a further leg down in equities, as the Research Equity market should focus on future quarters and the upcoming recovery in activity. We believe this recession is likely to be very deep, but also short. Top Picks Globally lower-for-longer interest rates may increase the appeal of Ticker Rating CP (TL) TP (TL) Upside equities: We support the view that globally, super low interest rates may YKBNK Buy 2.15 3.00 39% remain long after the pandemic has passed, due to: i) households and firms being GARAN Buy 7.76 11.25 45% likely to save more to rebuild lost wealth and increase precautionary saving, and KCHOL Buy 14.90 21.30 43% ii) monetary authorities helping governments cope with the potential sharp rise KOZAL Buy 71.10 104.00 46% in debt to GDP ratios after the pandemic passes. The experiences following past MGROS Buy 31.60 39.80 26% recessions and historic pandemics provide evidence to support this view. Under TOASO Buy 19.10 28.40 49% these circumstances, we think the appeal of equities may increase at the expense of bonds. TCELL Buy 13.22 18.00 36% TTRAK Buy 56.80 69.00 21% Pressure on the TL appears the main risk: With very low FX reserves Source: Bloomberg, UNLU Securities and policy rates, and with the prospect of further rate cuts, the TL may remain volatile. We also see the likelihood of the establishment of a swap line with the Fed/ECB or a deal with the IMF as being low. Research Analysts That said, a muddle-through scenario is possible, we believe. The heavy Erol Danış, PhD, CFA external debt repayment schedule for May and June will probably keep the [email protected] volatility in TL high. However, recent refinances by the banks (with rollovers of +90-212-367-3694 80-90%) and past experiences (in 2001, 2008 and 2018) give confidence for the Duygun Kutucu, CFA upcoming weeks. Also, if conditions deteriorate further, a rate hike, or signalling [email protected] of this option to gain time until global markets stabilise, might be the path +90-212-367-3668 followed. Koray Pamir Cutting our estimates: In this report, we have incorporated our most recent [email protected] macro assumptions into our models and cut our bottom-up index target for the +90-212-367-3687 next 12 months from 144,259 to 127,201, which implies ~30% upside potential Ece Mandacı, CFA vs. the current level. [email protected] Top Picks: We have removed ULKER and AKBNK from our Top Picks and +90-212-367-3689 added YKBNK to the list. Accordingly, GARAN, YKBNK, KOZAL, Zekai Ünal MGROS, TOASO, KCHOL, TCELL, and TTRAK are the constituents of [email protected] our model portfolio (please see pages 15-17). +90-212-367-3886 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. U.S. Disclosure: UNLU Menkul Degerler A.S. ("UNLU & Co") does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision. U.S. investors tran sacting in the securities featured or mentioned in this research report must deal directly through a U.S. Registered broker-dealer. Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Covid-19 Outbreak in Turkey ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Economic Measures by the Government .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Economic Activity and the Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Risks for the TL ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11 Debt Financing Outlook: Private Banks Have a Heavy Schedule .............................................................................................................................................12 Equity Market ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................13 Top Picks ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Revising Estimates ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Unlu Securities vs. Consensus ............................................................................................................................................................................................................19 Stock Performances (vs. BIST 100) ...................................................................................................................................................................................................20 Stock Performances (vs. Int’l Peers) .................................................................................................................................................................................................20 FX Sensitivity of Non-Banks ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................21 Debt Service Outlook for Companies Under our Coverage ....................................................................................................................................................23 Significant Foreign Outflow so far in 2020 .....................................................................................................................................................................................24 Main Sectors and Stock Preferences ................................................................................................................................................................................................25 Automotive ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Aviation .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 Banking ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Food and Beverage ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30 Glass ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................31 Retail ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................32
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