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AN OPERATIONS MODEL for TEMPERATURE MANAGEMENT of the TRUCKEE RIVER ABOVE RENO, NEVADA by DAVID W

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AN OPERATIONS MODEL for TEMPERATURE MANAGEMENT of the TRUCKEE RIVER ABOVE RENO, NEVADA by DAVID W AN OPERATIONS MODEL FOR TEMPERATURE MANAGEMENT OF THE TRUCKEE RIVER ABOVE RENO, NEVADA by DAVID W. NEUMANN B.S., University of Colorado, 2001 A thesis submitted to the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering 2001 This thesis entitled: AN OPERATIONS MODEL FOR TEMPERATURE MANAGEMENT OF THE TRUCKEE RIVER ABOVE RENO, NEVADA written by David W. Neumann has been approved for the Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering Rajagopalan Balaji Edith Zagona Date The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signators, and we find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. Neumann, David (M.S., Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering) An Operations Model for Temperature Management of the Truckee River above Reno, NV Thesis directed by Edith Zagona and Assistant Professor Rajagopalan Balaji This thesis develops and presents a decision support system (DSS) to manage the temperature of the Truckee River at Reno, Nevada. Warm summer river tempera- tures adversely affect threatened and endangered fish. Water rights are anticipated to be purchased by the federal government and local entities as part of the Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA). The acquired water will be stored in upstream reser- voirs and released to improve downstream water quality. The DSS implements an empirical model to predict maximum daily Truckee River water temperatures in June, July and August given predicted maximum daily air temperature and modeled average daily flow. The empirical model (R2 = 0.9) is cre- ated using a step-wise linear regression selection process using 1993 and 1994 data. The model is shown to work in a predictive mode by validation using three years of historical data and by using cross-validation. The predictive model includes a predic- tion confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty. A target minimum water surface elevation for the primary reservoir is determined to prevent warm releases. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is developing an operations model of the Truckee River using RiverWare that uses prioritized operating rules to calculate reser- voir releases. The model is under development and does not yet represent current or historical operations. This research develops additional rules that calculate higher releases using stored WQSA water if the predicted water temperature at Reno is above the target value. Releases are determined from the temperature prediction relationship and a user-specified confidence level for meeting the target. Strategies are develop to effectively use the WQSA water throughout the season. These strategies are based on seasonal climate forecasts, the temperature of the river over the previous few days, and the amount of available WQSA water. iii The DSS model is tested using historical inflows for a dry hydrology from 1990 to 1994. Various scenarios are explored that show the effect of changing the con- fidence level and using seasonal strategies. Results from this study show that there is not enough water to avoid all temperature violations in a drought, but most of the early violations can be avoided with a high degree of certainty. iv Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the help and support of many people. Edie Zagona and Balaji Rajagopalan provided endless guidance and per- spective. I thank them for their wisdom and time. In addition, Merlynn Bender pro- vided advice and technical insight. Thank you. I would like to acknowledge Tom Scott and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for providing funding and information about basin policy. In addition, I would like to acknowledge Gregg Reynolds, Jeff Boyer, Steffen Meyer, Jeff Jorgeson, Al Olsen, and Brad Vickers. They helped develop the model, answer difficult questions, and provide tours of the basin. A final professional acknowledgement goes to CADSWESians for technical support and resources. I would like to thank my family for financial and emotional support. Although I was supposed to finish my degree months earlier, they were always there to lend a helping hand or force me to go sailing in the Caribbean. Above all else, I would like to thank Colleen McCann for all her love and sup- port. She is always there to make me laugh and smile. I could not have done it without her. v Contents 1 Introduction . 1 Problem statement . 2 Study Area . 2 Outline of approach . 3 Contribution of this research . 5 2 Background. 6 Description of the Truckee basin. 6 Water temperature management location . 10 Ongoing policy negotiations . 11 WQSA . 12 Fish tolerance levels. 14 Baseline operations model using RiverWare. 15 3 Literature Review . 17 Physical process stream temperature models and studies . 17 Physical process models of the Truckee Basin . 18 Empirical stream temperature models . 20 Uncertainty of water quality modeling . 22 4 Temperature Prediction Model. 25 Type of predictive temperature model. 25 Data availability. 26 Development of an empirical model to predict daily maximum temperature of Truckee River at Reno, Nevada . 29 Model verification . 38 Uncertainty of predicted temperatures. 41 Reservoir release temperature threshold . 45 5 Decision Support System . 49 Rules to store WQCW . 49 Rules to predict water predict water temperature at Reno and release additional flow to meet target temperatures . 51 Rules to manage reservoir release constraints . 56 Rules to release additional flow to meet target temperatures with seasonal use strategies. 59 Summary of rules. 66 Use of DSS. 66 6 Testing and Results. 69 Stampede to Boca exchange results. 70 Seasonal strategies and varying probability of exceedance. 75 7 Conclusions and Recommendations. 93 Summary . 93 Conclusions . 94 Recommendations for future work . 95 References. 99 Appendix A Operating Policy in the Basin. 103 Historic and current policy . 103 Future policy affecting the Basin. 105 Appendix B Description of select laws. 106 Floriston Rates . 106 Truckee River Agreement . 106 Orr Ditch Decree . 107 Tahoe -Prosser Exchange Agreement . 107 Newlands Project Operating Criteria and Procedures (OCAP). 107 Stampede Reservoir Judgement. 107 Preliminary Settlement Act . 108 Negotiated Settlement Act: P.L. 101-618 . 108 Water Quality Settlement Agreement . 108 Truckee River Operating Agreement. 109 Water Rights Acquisition Program (WRAP). 109 Appendix C Glossary . 110 Appendix D RiverWare rules and functions. 112 Figures 1.1. DSS development flowchart ...................................................................................4 2.1. Map of the Truckee/Carson Basin ..........................................................................7 2.2. Truckee River elevation profile ..............................................................................8 2.3. Representative observed Truckee River temperatures............................................9 2.4. Map of the study section.......................................................................................11 4.1. Schematic of the study section..............................................................................27 4.2. Data used in regression relationships....................................................................31 4.3. AIC versus number of parameters ........................................................................34 4.4. Fitted Reno water temperature regression line .....................................................36 4.5. Reno water temperature regression residuals auto correlation .............................36 4.6. Reno water temperature regression residuals histogram ......................................37 4.7. Quantile vs. quantile plot to test for normality .....................................................37 4.8. June, July, and August 1990-1992, validation of maximum daily river temperatures.....................................................................................................39 4.9. Temperature occurrences......................................................................................40 4.10. Cross validation of water temperature regression at Reno .................................41 4.11. Prediction validation using withheld 1993 data..................................................42 4.12. Reno water temperature regression with prediction interval ..............................44 4.13. Boca maximum daily release temperature vs. maximum daily river temperature at Reno.................................................................................46 4.14. Boca pool elevation vs. release temperature.......................................................47 5.1. WQCW storage flowchart.....................................................................................51 5.2. Temperature reduction to meet desired exceedance probability...........................53 5.3. WQCW release logic ............................................................................................57 5.4. Physical constraints logic......................................................................................58 5.5. Stampede to Boca exchange rules.........................................................................58 5.6. Logic to payback WQCW from Boca to Stampede..............................................59 5.7. Sample 1-month temperature outlook from the CPC ...........................................61 5.8. Rule execution
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