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Asia and the Trump Administration: Challenges, Opportunities, and a Road Ahead by James J STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 26 Asia and the Trump Administration: Challenges, Opportunities, and a Road Ahead by James J. Przystup and Phillip C. Saunders Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, and Center for Technology and National Security Policy. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the unified combatant commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Clockwise from left, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, Malcolm Turnbull, Prime Minister of Australia, Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, and President Donald J. Trump (Cover by DOD/Jack J. Church) Asia and the Trump Administration Asia and the Trump Administration: Challenges, Opportunities, and a Road Ahead By James J. Przystup and Phillip C. Saunders Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 26 Series Editor: Denise Natali National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. June 2017 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this work may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. First printing, June 2017 For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, please visit inss.ndu.edu/Publications.aspx. ISBN 978-0-16-093962-4 F ro as le t yb eh S epu ri tn e edn tn fo D co mu e tn .U s S , G . evo r emn tn P ublishing Office I tn er en t: skoob t ro e . P opg . vog enoh : lot l f ree ( 668 ) 215 - 0081 ; D C a re ( a 202 ) 215 - 0081 90000 Fa :x ( 202 ) 215 - 4012 aM il: S t I po DCC W , ihsa gn t no D , C 20402 - 1000 ISBN 978-0-16-093962-4 9 780160 939624 Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 5 U.S. National Interests in the Asia-Pacific Region ......................................... 6 Defining Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region .................................................... 7 Asia-Pacific Security Challenges ....................................................................12 Sustaining U.S. Presence ..................................................................................20 Conclusion ........................................................................................................30 Notes ..................................................................................................................32 About the Authors ............................................................................................35 Asia and the Trump Administration Executive Summary The Asia-Pacific region is of exponentially increasing importance to the United States. Developments there affect vital U.S. economic, security, and political interests. Unfettered ac- cess to the region is a strategic imperative to allow the United States to protect and advance its wide-ranging national interests. The Donald Trump administration, in the face of a rapidly evolving strategic environment, will need to develop policies to sustain the U.S. presence and safeguard American interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Defining trends in the Asia-Pacific region include: ■■ Rapid economic growth that has increased the region’s weight in world affairs and im- portance to U.S. interests. Asia-Pacific economies make up more than one-quarter of the global economy and account for about one-third of all U.S. trade. ■■ Rising Chinese economic and military power that has reshaped global and regional trade and investment patterns and challenged U.S. regional dominance. Countries in the region value their economic ties with China and do not want to be forced to make a stra- tegic choice between Washington and Beijing. ■■ Increasing U.S. economic, military, and diplomatic engagement with the region since the end of the Cold War. Although countries in the Asia-Pacific region are primarily focused on economic develop- ment, a number of security challenges could threaten regional stability and damage U.S. inter- ests. These include: ■■ Sino-Japanese rivalry and conflicting claims over maritime boundaries in the East Chi- na Sea and over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands ■■ North Korea’s increasing nuclear and missile capabilities, which challenge nonprolif- eration norms, threaten U.S. regional allies, and will eventually include the ability to strike the U.S. homeland with a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 1 Strategic Perspectives, No. 26 ■■ China’s desire to resolve the Chinese civil war by achieving unification with Taiwan, and Beijing’s increasing efforts to develop the military capabilities and economic leverage necessary to coerce Taipei into accepting a political relationship with the mainland. ■■ Increasing tensions over conflicting maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea, with all claimants engaging in a range of tactics to strengthen their positions and China making greater use of its military and paramilitary forces to try to expand its effective control of disputed waters. We advocate a regional strategy focused on working with U.S. allies, partners, and mul- tilateral organizations to build a rules-based regional order that includes China and advances U.S. economic, security, and political interests. ■■ A rules-based regional order will help the United States to maintain economic, secu- rity, and political access to the Asia-Pacific region and advance its interests in the face of regional trends and security challenges. ■■ This approach requires sustaining the U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region and in- tensifying cooperation with other regional allies and partners to shape China’s choices and make it pay a price for aggressive actions that violate international rules and norms. ■■ If the United States is not actively engaged in shaping the regional economic order, that order is likely to evolve in ways that do not reflect U.S. interests. The starting point for a strategic approach to the Asia-Pacific region is to reinforce exist- ing bilateral alliances with Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand to deal with specific security threats. The alliances also provide a good foundation for expanding regional security cooperation. The United States should: ■■ encourage increased cooperation among U.S. allies ■■ develop strategic partnerships with key states in the region such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam 2 Asia and the Trump Administration ■■ support trilateral and quadrilateral cooperation mechanisms with Australia, Japan, In- dia, and South Korea ■■ shape the evolution of regional norms through active U.S. participation in regional or- ganizations and dialogue mechanisms. If the United States emphasizes its alliances, expands security cooperation with other part- ners, and actively engages in regional multilateral institutions and dialogues, it will be able to deal with China from a position of strength. The mixture of cooperation and competition in the U.S.-China relationship will present the new administration with a defining challenge given China’s increasing ability to affect the broad range of U.S. global, regional, and domestic interests. The policy challenge will be to maximize cooperation while competing successfully in areas where U.S. and Chinese interests are opposed. ■■ President Trump will need to engage directly with his Chinese counterpart to keep both governments focused on a cooperative agenda and to manage the more competitive as- pects of the relationship. Domestic economic and political problems are likely to produce more restrained Chinese external behavior and give U.S. policymakers more leverage. ■■ China does not aspire to challenge the United States for global leadership. In most re- gions, its focus on maintaining stability and securing access to resources and markets is relatively compatible with U.S. interests. ■■ U.S. and Chinese interests are less aligned in the Asia-Pacific, where China seeks in- creased influence and increasingly views the United States as a constraint. Heightened U.S.-China strategic competition and the potential for military incidents or crises makes it imperative to improve bilateral communications and crisis management mechanisms. ■■ U.S. policymakers should resist Beijing’s efforts to create a U.S.-China condominium or “G-2”-like arrangement, which would require accepting Chinese territorial claims
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